Denver Money
NYI / CHI Over 5.5
The Chicago Blackhawks went into the Olympic break playing some very good hockey and they look too continue this tonight when they meet the New York Islanders. Chicago has struggled in their past 5 meetings in New York losing all 5, but they have an agenda right now and that is too keep their momentum and get to the Stanley cups. The OVER is 5-1 in the Blackhawks last 6 road games and 5-1 in Islanders last 6 home games. We could even look the matchup of these two teams versus the opposite conference and see that Chicago has gone over the total 5 of their last 6 games vs the Eastern Conference and New York is 4-0 OVER in their last 4 vs. Western Conference. Head to head matchup between these two is 4-1 OVER in last 5 meetings and we should see the same tonight.
Insider Angles
The Horizon League Tournament kicks off on Tuesday night, and although the Valparaiso Crusaders are at home here by virtue of their 10-8 conference mark, we feel that the Detroit Titans are the superior team and that they will prove it here with an opening round road win.
The Titans actually finished at a nice 18-13 this season, although they were just 9-9 in the conference. They are also the much better defensive team here, and as they say, defense wins championships. The quality of the Detroit defense did not slip on the road during the regular seasons either, as they allowing just 65.2 points per game on a low 40.6 percent shooting away from home.
Conversely, the Crusaders had the worst defense in the Horizon League, allowing 75.1 points per game on a generous 46.9 percent shooting from the floor. As a result, Valparaiso ranks just 298 out of 347 Division I schools in adjusted defensive efficiency according to the Pomeroy Ratings, surrendering an unacceptable 1.088 points per possession. That is not a good trait for any team looking to win a conference title.
Pomeroy also ranks Detroit higher overall here at 135, compared to 175 for Valpo despite the latter owning the better conference mark. The Titans also enter this tournament with more momentum, coming in on a three-game winning streak to close the season while the Titans lost their last two games.
We will take the hotter, better team with the superior defense getting a couple of points in this situation, so look for Detroit to advance to the next round.
Pick: Detroit +2
Rocketman
Baylor @ Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech +4
Texas Tech is 13-4 SU at home this year where they score an average of 79 points per game. Texas Tech is 10-2 SU at home vs Baylor since 1997. Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Red Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Texas Tech tonight!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
These teams have combined to go Under the total each of the last seven times they've met in the Motor City and 11 of the last 14 overall. Detroit is the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league, averaging only 92.4 points per game. Boston is #1 in defense, yielding only 94.2 PPG. The Celtics have gone Over in four straight games, so they're due to go Under here.
Play on: Under
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Boston Celtics -4.5
After back-to-back losses, expect the Celtics to bounce back strong tonight while getting a big lift from the return of Paul Pierce. Boston will be further motivated tonight because of a loss it suffered at Detroit last month. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings at Detroit. The Pistons are 11-24-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall and only 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Celtics have actually been at their best on the road this season where they are 20-10. That home loss to New Jersey should be sitting badly enough that the C's show up in a big way tonight. Lay the points.
Matt Fargo
Colorado vs. Neb
Play: Colorado +5.5
We will be seeing a lot of public action on the home team here but I will be going the other way in a very contrarian situation. This is the last chance of the season for the Buffaloes to pick up that elusive road conference win, a stretch that has gone 36 games now. They have not won on the road in the Big XII Conference since January 21, 2006 when they defeated Oklahoma St. in overtime. The have been close this season however as they lost by a point at Iowa St. after blowing a double-digit lead and a four-point loss at Texas A&M. Getting the road win is big in itself but it also it will figure into possible postseason plans. Colorado is two games under .500 and it needs to win here as well as the season finale at home against a struggling Texas Tech team to get back to even and be considered for a postseason invitation. “It's come down to the last one,” guard Dwight Thorne II said of his final regular-season road game. “It would be great to get it - and we need it. We need to be .500 going into the postseason for the NIT, so we need it.” Obviously being winless on the road over the last four years is not going to make this a very popular play but that is fine at this end. One big reason is the matchup. Colorado is often at a disadvantage in the paint because it is a very undersized team but this is one matchup where the Buffaloes will not be at the short end, no pun intended. Both teams are below average in rebounding while the Buffaloes posses advantages in other areas such as offensive efficiency, offensive shooting and free throw shooting. This is even more impressive considering Colorado has played the 4th toughest schedule in the country this season. Nebraska has had a very tough season as it is just a game under .500 overall but 2-121 in the Big XII, good for last place. The Huskers started the season an impressive 12-3 but like past years, the non-conference schedule was soft and had a lot to do with that success. The only good wins over that stretch were against USC and Oregon St. and even those are borderline. The slate clearly did not get Nebraska ready for conference action and eight of those 12 losses have been by double-digits. That includes a 12-point loss at Colorado and while that means revenge, I do not consider that an edge with such a bad team. Nebraska can still win and we can still get the money as there is no way they should be favored by this many points. The Huskers are 1-3 in their last four games as a favorite and that dates back to December which shows how rare it is for them to be giving points. The Buffaloes also fall into a very good situation for tonight. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging only between 63 and 67 ppg going up against a team allowing between 67 and 74 ppg, after allowing 75 points or more two straight games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Colorado Buffaloes
Tom Freese
Minnesota at Michigan
Prediction: Minnesota
Michigan is 13-15 overall and they are 6-10 in League Play. Guard Manny Harris scores 18.1 points and 6.3 rebounds a game. Forward Deshawn Sims scores 16.9 points and 7.8 rebounds. No other player on the team scores more than more than 7.5 points a game. The Wolverines score 64 points a game and they shoot just 41% from the floor. Michigan is 2-5 ATS their 7 Big 10 games and they are 1-5 ATS on Tuesday. Minnesota is 17-11 overall and 8-8 in League Play. Guard Lawrence Westbrook scores 13 points a game while shooting 42% from behind the arc. Forward Blake Huffarber scores 11 points a game. Forward Damion Johnson scores 10.2 points a game. Guard Devoe Joseph scores 8.8 points a game and Ralph Sampson scores 8.7 points a game. The Golden Gophers score 73.5 points a game and they shoot 47% from the floor. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS their last 4 Big 10 games and they are 7-3 ATS off an ATS win. PLAY ON MINNESOTA
SEAN MURPHY
Miami (FL) @ North Carolina
PICK: North Carolina -4
We saw plenty of positive signs from North Carolina in its surprising 77-68 win at Wake Forest on Saturday. Tonight we're getting a reasonable price to back them in what amounts to a springboard game against a very beatable Miami squad.
The Hurricanes haven't been quite the disappointment that North Carolina has been, but do check in with an identical 4-10 ACC record.
It's worth noting that the Canes have only once hung within four points on the ACC road this season, and that came against a weak Boston College squad way back in the first week of December. Since the start of ACC play in January, Miami has gone 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road in-conference, with all six of those losses coming by at least six points.
Miami had a chance to build some real late season momentum on Saturday, but failed, losing 71-66 at home against N.C. State as seven-point favorites. Now I have a hard time believing they'll pick themselves back up for Tuesday's game in Chapel Hill.
The Tar Heels were once again humbled in their most recent home game, losing by 10 points against Florida State. But that defeat means little following that big upset win over the Demon Deacons this past weekend. They could have folded the tent after the loss to FSU, but instead used it as motivation. They'll close the regular season on Saturday against arch-rival Duke, and would love to have a shot at a three-game winning streak on that day.
The last time we saw North Carolina favored by fewer than eight points against Miami was back in February of 2006. The Tar Heels were actually listed as one-point underdogs in that one, and won the game by 10 points, on the road no less.
As disappointing as this season has been for UNC, they are still a solid 12-5 SU at home, and based on the way Miami has struggled on the road, and the fact that they're coming off a deflating loss, I'll back the Heels in this one. Take North Carolina.
John Fisher
South Florida vs. Depaul
Play: South Florida -2.5
That is correct Depaul is 1-16 last 17 games but yet is just 2.5 DOGS. They play an underrated South Florida team that has beaten some good competition. Look for Depaul to hang around but after all they are used to losing. Teams like Depaul will find more ways to lose then to win. I love the 2.5 line in this game. DePaul forward Mac Koswal has been a beast in last 5 games after returning from injuries. That wont be enough to offset Dominque Jones and a more balanced attack of S. Florida. 2 star S.Florida
Jimmy the Moose
Los Angeles Kings vs. Dallas Stars
The Kings are 37-20-4 in the season and their 78 points have them sitting in 5th spot in the Western Conference. Los Angeles comes into this one having won 10 of their last 12 games overall. In their last 8 road games the Kings are a profitable 7-1. In their last 9 games following a win they are 8-1. The Kings are 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a SU losing record. In their last 12 games vs. a division opponent they are 12-5.
With a 21-18-12 record this season and 68 points the Stars are currently sitting in 10th spot in the Western Conference. The Stars are coming off a win in their last game and in their 64 games following a win they are 16-48. Tonight Dallas will be in tough vs. a team they struggle against.
Dallas has lost 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Kings. LA is 4-1 in their last 5 trips to Dallas and tonight they'll take another one.
Play on the Los Angeles Kings +
LT PROFITS
East Carolina +12.5
The East Carolina Pirates may be one of the worst teams in Conference USA, but this spread still seems a couple of points too high when they visit the Central Florida Knights tonight.
After all, with a 13-15 record and a negative AMOV of -1.8 points per game overall, we are not convinced that the Knights should be double-digit favorites over anybody. Yes, UCF is 9-5 straight up at home, but they are only winning their home games vs. Division I opponents by an average of +2.7 points. Their home record is padded by non-lined wins vs. Howard, Albany, Bethune-Cookman and something called Newberry during non-conference play.
Because of the weak schedule, the Knights do not grade out well in the Pomeroy Ratings, ranking 167 out of 347 teams overall, 174 in offensive efficiency at 1.008 points per possession and 155 in defensive efficiency with a PPP of exactly 1.000.
Now East Carolina may be 9-19 overall, but they are actually an excellent 9-4 against the spread on the road. No, this is not because they are a good team, but rather it is because road lines against them have been inflated since they are perceived to be worse than they are. Well, that appears to be the case again tonight, especially when you consider that the Pirates actually upset Rice outright 76-65 in their last road game.
Look for East Carolina to hang inside single-digits from start to finish here.
Larry Ness
BOS -4.5 vs DET
The Boston Globe reported that Celtics forward Paul Pierce returned to practice Monday and will be in the starting lineup at Detroit on Tuesday night. Pierce (17.9-4.6-3.3) has missed the last three games with a thumb injury and the 36-21 Celtics will be very happy to get him back on the court. Center Kendick Perkins (10.9-7.9) is listed as doubtful and the Celtics need to get back on track. They lost the final two games of their recent three-game homestand. A 108-88 loss against Cleveland on Thursday night was no big deal but Saturday's 104-96 loss to the league-worst Nets was unacceptable. Boston trails both Orlando (40-20) and Atlanta (38-21) in the East which is "big news," considering the Celtics are 1-7 vs those two teams this season! Through it all, Boston still owns the league's second-best road record (20-10) and tonight's opponent is the hapless Pistons. Detroit went to six consecutive Eastern Conference Finals (2002-03 through 2007-08) but stumbled into the playoffs at 39-43 last year. That left the Pistons with an opening round series against the Cavs, which they lost 4-0, averaging a woeful 78.0 PPG. This year has been a 'disaster' right from the start and at 21-38, Detroit won't have to worry about a first-round opponent this year. Detroit ranks 29th in the league in scoring with 92.4 PPG (only the Nets are worse at 90.2) and ranks 27th in FG percentage, including dead-last (30th) in three-point percentage. Off that Nets loss, look for the Celtics to get a much-needed win (and cover).
Jack Jones
Marquette -1
Marquette is one of the hottest teams in the Big East and they've come through for us a lot over the last couple weeks. The Eagles are showing solid value again tonight and we'll take advantage as Tuesday's free pick. Marquette is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall to improve to 19-9 this season and certainly would be in the NCAA Tournament if the season were to end today. The Eagles are 12-3 at home this season, and they face a Louisville team that actually has a losing road record this year. The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival this season. Marquette is 12-4 ATS in conference games this season. The Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in the Big East, and they are going under the radar again tonight when they should be a much heavier home favorite.
This play also falls under a system that is 44-14 (76%) over the last 5 years. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARQUETTE) - off a road win against a conference rival, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season. Marquette gets the call Tuesday.
John Ryan
Loyola Chicago vs. Cleveland State
Play: Cleveland State -10
5* graded play on Cleveland State (CS) as they host Loyola-Illinois (LI) This one of the games that opens up the Horizon Tournament Championship. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that CS will win this game by 11 or more points. Cleveland State is certainly the better team across the board despite the two teams having similar records. CS is also in a strong position to win the money noting they are a solid 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. LI defense will not be able to contain the CS offense and the mode projects a very high probability that CS will score between 67 and 74 points. Note that in past games LI is just 2-11 ATS the past 3 seasons when allowing between 67 and 74 points.
Stan Lisowski
CINCINNATI
Bearcats play their home finale looking to improve their post-season positioning in the Big East tournament. They are 12-3 straight up on this floor this season while Villanova is just 1-4 ATS in their past 5 games. The visitor in this series is only 1-3 outright and 0-4 vs. the number.