Wunderdog
Jacksonville State vs. Morehead State
Play: Under 136.5
Jacksonville State finished the season wondering where their offense went. Playing against a tough and physical Morehead State team isn't going to help them find it. The Gamecocks finished the season scoring just 61 points per game in their last 6. Morehead St. held six conference opponents to the 50s or less, and did a great job on a Murray State team that had won 17 in a row, holding the explosive Racers to 65. The Gamecocks have now played seven straight to the UNDER after an ATS loss, while Morehead has played four straight UNDERs vs. bad teams, winning less than 40% of their games. I'll go with the UNDER here.
Lee Kostroski
Sacramento @ Oklahoma City
PICK: Sacramento +10
Tonight I play on the Sacramento Kings plus the double digits over the host Oklahoma City Thunder. Yes, the Thunder have a great young team led by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook but OKC finds themselves in an unfamiliar role tonight as a heavy chalk. In fact this is the first time in the HISTORY of the “Oklahoma City” franchise that they’ve been tabbed a double-digit favorite. That’s right, not since this team was playing in Seattle back in 2006-07 have they been favored by 10 or more points.
Sacramento is quietly building a solid young team led by potential rookie of the year Tyreke Evans who is averaging 20.4 ppg and 4.9 rebounds per game this season. Solid contributions from Beno Udrih, Omri Casspi and newly acquired Carl Landry give this team a bright future. The Kings have excelled in the role of big underdogs this year by covering 7 of 8 games as a 10 or more point underdog. Looking at the history between these two Western teams we find the largest margin of victory in the last 10 meetings is 13 points which is just one 3-pointer away from covering this number.
Oklahoma City is coming off a couple blowout wins over Toronto and Minnesota so I can’t help but think they’ll be looking past the Kings tonight as they travel to Denver tomorrow night to face the Nuggets. Grab the points with the Kings!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Louisville +1.5
Like clockwork, coach Pitino has his boys playing their best ball at the end of the season. The Cards have won 6 of their last 8 and 4 of their last 5 with two of those wins coming at Syracuse and at UConn so there's no reason to doubt that the Cards can't get the win at Marquette tonight. Marquette has gotten past its last 3 opponents by the skin of its teeth, winning those 3 games by a combined 6 points, and I think you'll agree that Louisville is a better team than Cincy, St. John's and Seton Hall. Here's the clincher: Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARQUETTE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game, in March games, are 23-4 ATS since 1997, including 12-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Cash in with the Cards.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Pacers/Lakers UNDER 211
These two teams have played some high scoring games in recent meetings, but I don't expect the Lakers to be too interested in running up the score tonight. Besides, their defense has been tremendous, holding 8 of their last 9 opponents under the century mark. As a result, the Lakers have played to the Under in 8 of their last 9 games. Plus, the Lakers went 12-3 Under in their March games last season. We'll grab the Under tonight.
Info Plays
3* on Jacksonville State +15
Reasons why Jacksonville State covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - An underdog (JACKSONVILLE ST) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games. This is a 57-24 ATS System hitting 70.4% since 1997. This system has gone a solid 13-8 this season alone.
2.) Morehead State is one of the better teams in the Ohio Valley Conference, but with their season on the line tonight in the Conference Tournament, Jacksonville State will give Morehead State a run for their money. Jacksonville State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after suffering 5 or more consecutive losses. There is serious line value here with the underdog. Bet Jacksonville State on the road.
Dennis Macklin
Illinois Chicago +11.5 over Wisconsin Milwaukee
It's been a tough tough year for the 8-21 (3-15 Horizon) Illinois Chicago Flames but not bad enough to merit catching 11.5 from a very average Wisconsin Milwaukee outfit. The Panthers swept the series winning 57-52 back in early December and then by 78-74 three days ago in the Windy City. UW Mil just 5-6 ATS at home, 2-5 as home fave, 6-9 as a fave, 0-2 as DD fave. Flames have nice March history. UIC rocks 18-7 ATS run in L25 March games, 16-7 ATS in L23 Horizon Conference tournament games, 29-14 ATS L44 all tournaments, and 15-6 ATS L21 as a double-digit favorite. Looking deeper into the box scores of this year's two meetings, UIC lost both games by a combined nine points despite shooting just 21-35 from the foul line and going minus 24 on the glass. Horizon hame favorites of 9+ points are a brutal 7-18 this year so gimme the 12 with Illinois Chicago.
Black Widow
1* on Boston Celtics -4
Boston has had a couple days to steam over their embarrassing loss to the New Jersey Nets Sunday. Now they'll take it out on the Detroit Pistons Tuesday in a game we fully expect the celtics to dominate from the opening tip. Boston has actually played their best away from home this season, sporting a 20-10 road record and winning by 4.7 points/game. Detroit is a tired team, and the Pistons are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Boston comes out with one of their strongest efforts of the season tonight. Take the Celtics and lay the points.
Bobby Maxwell
Boston (-5) at DETROIT
I'm on a 60-28-2 run with FREE plays and tonight I've got an NBA winner for you as I go ahead and lay the chalk with the Celtics as they visit the Pistons in Detroit.
Two teams that have struggled lately square off for this one and because the Celtics haven’t been very good at the betting window, the line if far too short. Lay the chalk with Boston as they’ll beat the Pistons by 10.
Boston’s recent struggles have been without the services of Paul Pierce who is nursing a thumb injury, but he will be back in the lineup for this one. The Celtics have dropped two in a row, including that ugly Saturday home game against New Jersey where they lost 104-96 to the lowly Nets as 10 ½-point favorites. Now there is a wakeup call for the Celtics!
Detroit has dropped three straight games and six of their last nine. They lost the last three games of a four-game West Coast road trip, including Sunday’s 95-88 loss at Golden State, failing as a four-point underdog.
The Pistons won the only matchup with the Celtics this season, but Boston is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The road team is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings and the Celtics are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Detroit.
Even though they’ve struggled lately at the window, look for Boston to come out tonight to prove a point. They’ll hammer the Pistons and win this by 10 at least.
4♦ BOSTON
Derek Mancini
Louisville (+1') at MARQUETTE
Both of these schools are playing their best basketball at the most important time of the regular season. Both are seeking that elusive 11th conference win, and both are going to go for it tonight. But I give the edge to the Cardinals for a couple reasons, incl. size and defense.
Its no secret the Golden Eagles are smallish upfront, with 6'6 Hayward doing most of their damage in the paint. Of course there's Samuels, plus the combo of Jennings and Swoopshire, giving Louisville a distinct advantage down-low. Cardinals are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their L4 meetings with the Golden Eagles, and their edge in size has always been a contributing factor.
Anyone who's watched this series knows that Pitino is going to press this Golden Eagles backcourt to death tonight. How they handle that pressure will determine the outcome of this contest. If we're to go by past history (which we will), then we know Marquette is going to have their issues.
Grab the points with a Louisville team that's rounding into postseason form. Gamblers have abandoned the Cardinals bandwagon, in favor of laying less than a basket with Marquette - wrong move - as the Cardinals pressure D and edge in the paint are the difference Tuesday.
2♦ LOUISVILLE
Chuck O'Brien
Illinois (+10) at OHIO STATE
Oklahoma-Texas flew over the total on Monday for a complimentary winner. On Tuesday, take Illinois and the points at Ohio State in Big Ten hoops action.
Illinois’ worst Big Ten loss of the season did come at home to Ohio State (72-53 as a two-point underdog) back on Valentine’s Day, a setback that started the Illini’s current 1-3 slump that has seriously damaged their tournament hopes. But other than the loss to Ohio State, the Illini haven’t dropped a conference game by more than 10 points. And they come into this one having cashed in five straight road games (all in Big Ten play), going 4-0 ATS as a road underdog. Illinois is also 6-3 ATS in its last nine overall, 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in its last five when getting seven to 12½ points on the road..
Ohio State has won three in a row and is 12-1 in its last 13 Big Ten games. But the Buckeyes are just 5-6 ATS in their last 11 overall, and they’ve failed to cover in four straight home games (all as a favorite).
Although Illinois laid an egg Saturday against Minnesota, losing 62-60 at home as a three-point favorite, the Illini have been at their best lately when coming off a bad performance, going 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover. The Illini’s season is on the line here; if they suffer another blowout loss, they can kiss their Tournament hopes goodbye. So expect them to show up and put up a 40-minute fight, just as they did at Purdue, at Wisconsin and at Michigan State, as they easily covered in those three road games against highly ranked teams (including an outright upset at Wisconsin as a nine-point ‘dog).
4♦ ILLINOIS
Stephen Nover
Detroit (+2') at VALPARAISO
Taking a dive into the Horizon League tournament, with Detroit making a visit to Valparaiso.
The Titans enter this first-round Horizon League Tournament matchup against Valparaiso with momentum having won three in a row.
Three Detroit players made the all-Newcomer team in the Horizon League - Chase Simon, Eli Holman and Xavier Keeling. The Titans are coming together at the right time.
The Titans also are a much better defensive team than Valparaiso, giving up an average of eight fewer points per game.
Detroit has been excellent as a road 'dog this season covering six of nine times in that role. All together, the Titans are 7-2-1 ATS when getting points the past 10 times. They have covered 10 of their last 13 away matchups.
Butler ran away with the Horizon title going undefeated in league play. But Detroit gave the Bulldogs all they could handle, losing by two in overtime and falling by five at Butler
2♦ DETROIT
Michael Cannon
Vanderbilt at FLORIDA (-3)
Take Florida as the small home chalk over Vanderbilt.
Just when the Gators thought they were off the tournament bubble, they go and lose a road game to Georgia and now they’re right back on.
I feel like Florida will rise to the challenge and get things done on its home court tonight.
Vanderbilt is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games and the Gators have revenge for a 95-87 loss in Nashville on Jan. 9.
Florida is 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings with Vandy (6-3 ATS in the last nine) and it has cashed in five of the last seven battles in Gainesville.
Take Florida as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ FLORIDA
Chris Jordan
Vanderbilt (+2') at FLORIDA
At this point in the college basketball season, the Southeastern Conference is generally headlined by two programs: Kentucky and Florida.
This season, it's a little different, as Vanderbilt is stealing the show and had the makings of becoming this year's Big Dance darlings.
I know tonight is Senior Night in Gainesville, and the Gators are looking at this game as the must-win, with Kentucky on deck, but the Commodores are no joke.
They're in off of an 89-72 win at Arkansas on Saturday, their first win in Fayetteville since the 1995-96 season; it was the team's fifth win on the road in SEC play, the most road wins in league play since 1992-93, and their first sweep of the SEC West division since 1992-93.
This is a team that is getting it done at both ends of the court, scoring 78.8 points per game and limiting foes to a 41.1 shooting percentage from the field. Florida, on the other hand, isn't the threatening team it had been just a few years ago, and has been inconsistent too often this season.
I like the challenge in this one, and think the road dog is the team to play.
2♦ VANDERBILT
Karl Garrett
Villanova (-4) at CINCINNATI
Monday night comp play winner on Utah State drilling Fresno State, now 8-1 my last 9 comp play releases.
Villanova is a hot mess right now, as the Wildcats head to the Queen City with losses in 3 of their last 4, and 4 of 7 overall. The 'Cats have also failed the line in 6 of their last 8 games.
The problem is, the Bearcats are not a better alternative right now, as Cincinnati is on an 0-9 spread run at home their last 9 games. They are also just 5-18 against the spread their last 23 Big East games, and on an overall spread run of 7-20 their last 27 on line!
In this series, Villanova has won 3 of the 4 meetings since 2006, and they have also covered in 2 of the last 3 showdowns.
I have to believe the Wildcats get their house in order before the Bearcats do.
Gotta lay the road chalk with 'Nova in this one.
4♦ VILLANOVA
Jeff Benton
How easy was that free-play winner on Utah State on Monday? I’m now on runs of 30-14-1, 20-8-1, 17-7-1 and 11-4-1 with plays that I’m giving away! For Tuesday, I’ll head to the first round of the Horizon League tournament and lay the points with Wisconsin-Green Bay against Youngstown State.
The Horizon League does things a little differently with its tournament, as the top two seeds get a first-round bye while the remaining higher seeds get to play on their home court in the opening round. That’s a huge advantage for Wisconsin-Green Bay, which finished third in the league standings and draws the last-place Penguins in this one. The Phoenix are 10-4 at home this year, including 8-2 when hosting conference rivals. In addition to that, back on Dec. 9, they hosted Wisconsin and scored an 88-84 upset in overtime.
Youngstown State lost 16 of 18 conference games, including the last 13 in a row. That includes two losses to Wisconsin-Green Bay (75-67 on the road; 69-55 at home). In fact, the Phoenix are 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings with Youngstown, including 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight at home. Also, the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 series battles.
Bottom line: If this game was played on a neutral court, I’d give the Penguins a decent shot at competing. But after going through a miserable conference season, and now having to play on enemy turf, you have to believe Youngstown State just wants this season to end. At the same time, Wisconsin-Green Bay has the talent to make a deep run in this tournament, and a blowout victory here would be huge for the players’ confidence
5♦ WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY