Scott Delaney
Jacksonville State at Morehead State
Morehead State is the defending tournament champion title from last season, and rolls into this year's even after finishing with an impressive 15-3 mark in conference action.
Funny thing is, that record was only good enough for the No. 2 seed, and I think Morehead is out to prove its point right off the bat, while sending a message to top-seeded Murray State, which was 17-1 in league play.
Morehead State closed the regular season with six wins in its last eight games, including an impressive 70-65 victory over Murray State back on February 25th.
The Eagles play tough defense, and should have no trouble shutting down outmatched Jacksonville State.
1♦ MOREHEAD STATE
Brett Atkins
I'm 10-6 with my last 16 free plays and delivering you a college hoops winner tonight as I grab the points with Georgia Tech on the road at Clemson in an ACC showdown.
Georgia Tech has been on the verge of having a monster year. Tonight I’m grabbing the points with them and look for them to get over the hump and get that big road win.
The Yellow Jackets scored a 73-68 win over Boston College on Saturday at home, but on the road this team has lost five straight ACC contests, but three of those five were by two points. A few breaks go their way on the road and they are leading this conference.
Georgia Tech beat Clemson 66-64 on Jan. 19, cashing as a one-point favorite. Iman Shumpert is a bona fide star for the Jackets and he put up 24 points against Boston College on Saturday while Derrick Favors had 14 points and five boards. Very athletic team that can get up and down the court.
Clemson has been up and down all season, as evidenced just by their last two games, allowing 88 to Maryland and then only giving up 50 to Florida State.
The Jackets carry ATS runs of 17-8-1 overall, 9-4-1 on the road and 5-1-1 after a non-cover, into this contest. Clemson is just 0-4 ATS after a non-cover and 1-5 after a straight-up win.
Way too many points to pass up here. Grab the points and play Georgia Tech.
4♦ GEORGIA TECH
Jay McNeil
Now on an 19-12-2 run with comp plays, I'm taking Wisconsin-Green Bay over Youngstown State in Horizon League Tourney play.
The Phoenix leads this series, 20-6, and head into the postseason after sweeping the regular-season series, winning 75-67 on Dec. 19 at the Resch Center and 69-55 in Youngstown, Ohio, on Jan. 24.
This is the fourth conference tournament meeting. Green Bay won two of the three previous tournament battles.
And with Green Bay coming into the postseason having won five of its last seven, I don't see a problem in this blowout over the Penguins, who have lost nine straight.
1♦ UW GREEN BAY
Matt Rivers
Take Marquette as the small home chalk over Louisville.
I just don’t trust the Cardinals right now. They aren’t playing consistent and tonight they are facing a live dog in Marquette.
The Golden Eagles have won three straight, all in overtime, and eight of nine.
Louisville is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine Tuesday games and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 overall.
Take Marquette as they get it done at home.
2♦ MARQUETTE
Tony George
Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons +4.5
What the hell is Boston doing laying points on the road? SERIOUSLY!! Lost to the Nets in their last home game??? COME ON NOW!! I said they were an aging team, and do not have it, and while Detroit is no powerhouse anymore, they have been scoring lately and are tough at home.
The puiblic consensus at wagerline is 77% on Boston...apparently buying into past reputation. The have covered 8 out of their last 29 Games!! Detroit boasts no big trends here in their favor but I am playing against public opinion and say this is a 3 point game one way or the other, the Celtics are allowing 101 ppg their last 5 games, that does not cut it in the East! Both deplorable from the FT line as of late and Piecre expected back tonight for Boston, but will be rusty. Detroit with a HUGE edge in the paint....I like a physical game from Detroit in a low scoring tight one.
Steve Merril
Miami Florida vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -4
North Carolina has suffered through one of their most disappointing seasons in a long, long time. After winning the national championship last season, the Tar Heels are just 15-14 on the year which includes a dismal 4-10 conference mark. However, this team can erase most of the bad memories of their awful season by winning tonight, a game that has two special meanings for the players. First, and foremost, it’s Senior Night for six Tar Heels. This will be their final home game ever on Chapel Hill, and considering they lost their previous home game, tonight’s game becomes even bigger. With multi-year contributors and seniors Marcu Ginyard and Deon Thompson leading the way, we expect a huge effort here, from them and their teammates. Secondly, North Carolina is one win shy of 2,000. So a win tonight would be a historical milestone for the traditional basketball powerhouse. And this group can always stake claim to being the team that got the meaningful win. "That's impossible to really put into words, when you think about the tradition, the history, of North Carolina basketball," Ginyard said. "Just to be a part of the 100th year, and all of those things - it would be really special to get the 2,000th win." Miami’s 18-10 record is misleading as they went 15-1 against a very weak non-conference schedule. Since then, the Canes are just 3-9 and 0-6 on the road. In conference play, the Hurricanes have yet to win a road game with the average loss coming by 11 points per game. With Miami off three consecutive home games, and a home date on deck with in-state rival Florida St, the Hurricanes are in a terrible spot tonight as they face a North Carolina team looking to make history.
John Martin
1 Unit on Warriors/Heat OVER 200.5
This is a very low total for a game involving the Golden State Warriors. The OVER is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The OVER is 35-16 in Warriors last 51 vs. NBA Southeast. The OVER is 5-1 in Heat last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, with a total combined score of at least 214 points in 5 of those 6 meetings. Cash in with the OVER.
Sac Lawson
Morehead St. -15 vs Jacksonville St.
Two issues I have here. First is Rebounding, second is injury-related. Morehead St. is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. It's shocking actually; they really don't play anyone taller than 6'8 yet they crash the offensive boards with amazing efficiency, and control the defensive glass just as well. These teams have met twice this year. In the most recent matchup Morehead got nearly 20 more shot attempts than Jacksonville behind an offensive rebounding edge of 16 to 2. In the first matchup of the year they had 11 more shot attempts behind yet another rebounding edge. These numbers are not crazy, they are the reality of the matchup between these two teams. Morehead simply owns the majority of the OVC teams on the glass, and Jacksonville especially. I fully expect Morehead to get 15 more shot attempts than Jacksonville tonight, and that right there gives us 15 extra points (seeing as the majority of Moreheads offensive boards lead to layups). Not only is it demoralizing if your Jacksonville St., but it's a huge lift for the home team to get easy buckets and have their crowd stay involved in what should be an already decent atmosphere considering it's conference tournament time.
The second issue I elluded to was Jacksonville's little issue with Trenton Marshall. He WILL NOT play tonight. What does that mean? Well not only does it take away their leading scorer, but it takes away a guy that attempts almost 1/4 of their total shots every single night. Since Marshall has been out they've lost three games by a double digit average. He's a key contributor and I'm not seeing enough points in this line to trust that vegas is fully accounting for his absence.
Morehead is the better team, flat out. They've been on a collision course to meet up with Murray State for the conference title since day one of the season. Tonight they matchup extra well on the glass, they'll have the home crowd behind them, and they're playing a team lacking their true leader. I fully expect Morehead to run away with this one behind plenty of easy baskets. Play Morehead for 1 unit!
THE PREZ
Tennessee Tech +9.5
The Ohio Valley Conference Tournament kicks of Tuesday night at the home sites of the higher seeds, and despite the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles being on the road when they visit the Austin Peay Governors, we do not feel there is enough separation between these clubs to justify this big spread.
In fact, these clubs had two close battles during the regular season, with Tennessee Tech going 2-0 against the spread, winning outright at home and losing by just five points in overtime in this building as 10-point underdogs two weeks ago. Sure, the Golden Eagles struggle defensively, but the Governors have not been that great themselves on the defensive end themselves, which always makes them vulnerable to backdoor covers when laying this many points.
Austin Peay is allowing 73.6 points per game overall on 44.8 percent shooting, and truth be told, they did not show much improvement down the stretch, allowing over 80 points in two of their last three games. They rank just 260 in the country according to the Pomeroy Ratings, allowing a disturbing 1.062 points per possession.
Yes, Tennessee Tech is worse defensively, with a PPP of 1.126, but is that difference enough to justify a nearly double-digit spread, especially after the two close games these teams played this year? In a game where neither team plays defense, Austin Peay may be ripe for an upset, as the Tennessee Tech offense ranks a very good 66 in the country in effective field goal percentage at 51.5 percent, while the Governors only rank 129 at 49.3 percent in that category.
While Peay may find a way to win this game on their home court, we look for yet another nail-biter between these clubs, making the Eagles the play at this lofty spread.