MTi Sports
Denver at New York
Prediction: Over
The Knicks are 7-0 OU (+17.1 ppg) as a dog with at least one day of rest off a loss as a home dog in which they led by 10+ points. The Nuggets are 8-0 OU (+17.4 ppg) on the road with two or more days of rest after a home loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line and 6-0 OU (+18.8 ppg) since February 22, 2003 on the road with two or more days of rest after a home loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field. Finally, Denver is 6-0 OU (+20.2 ppg) on the road after a loss at home in which Carmelo Anthony took more than 20 shots. Take these two OVER.
VEGAS EXPERTS
North Carolina at UAB
The Tar Heels are still playing for pride and are capable of putting together a quality performance just like they did when they went into Starkville and upset Mississippi State outright as nine-point dogs last round. That moved UNC to a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road in post-season tournament games. Here they draw a UAB team with far less of a pedigree and one that is just 5-14 ATS themselves in tournament games and 10-20 ATS off an ATS win.
Play on: North Carolina
BIG AL
Charlotte Bobcats @ Washington
PICK: Washington +6
The Wizards have dropped 11 straight games heading into Tuesday, but this is a perfect situation for them to get back into the win column. Charlotte has the biggest home/road dichotomy in the league this season. The Bobcats are a terrific 25-8 at home, but an awful 10-26 straight-up on the road. And, unfortunately for Charlotte, tonight's game is in the nation's capital. Washington has covered the spread in each of its last three defeats, and the Wizards are a super 56-25 ATS off 5 or more losses since 1996. Take the points.
Jim Feist
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Pick: Los Angeles Clippers +10
As bad as the Clippers are, at least they are scoring some points, topping 100 in two of the last three games. They have offensive talent with point guard Baron Davis, Drew Gooden, Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon. Dallas is not a stellar defensive team, in the middle of the pack allowing 99.6 ppg. They have also cooled off after a torrid stretch, on a 2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS run, overvalued by oddsmakers. Dallas allows 46% shooting by opponents, 15th in the NBA. LA has enough offense to hang within this number. Play the LA Clippers.
James Patrick Sports
Pacers vs. Pistons
The Pacers defense has been missing for some time and this series has gone Over the Total in (5) of the past (7) meetings. Detroit has flown Over the Total in (5) of (6) home games and Big Game James Patrick's NBA selection on Tuesday Fan Appreciation Day is Indiana - Detroit Over the Total.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Texas Tech (19-15, 16-12 ATS) at Ole Miss (23-10, 18-10-1 ATS)
The Red Raiders try for their first three-game winning streak since starting the season 9-0 when they invade the Smith Coliseum in Oxford, Miss., for an NIT quarterfinal matchup with Ole Miss.
Texas Tech closed the regular season with seven straight losses (2-5 ATS), but has gone 3-1 SU and ATS in the postseason. In the Big 12 tournament, the Red Raiders knocked off Colorado 82-67 in the first round, then gave top-seed Kansas a tough battle (80-68 loss as a 17½-point underdog).%key% They followed up last week with a pair of NIT wins over Seton Hall (87-79 as a nine-point road underdog) and Jacksonville (69-64 as a nine-point home favorite).
The Rebels have won and covered six of their last seven, the only misstep coming against Tennessee in the opening round of the SEC tournament, a 76-65 loss as a 2½-point underdog that ended their NCAA Tournament hopes. Ole Miss has cruised into the NIT quarterfinals with easy home wins over Troy (84-65 as a 13-point favorite) and Memphis (90-81 as a four-point chalk).
Despite pounding Seton Hall in the opening round of the NIT, Texas Tech is still just 5-10 away from home, but 8-6 ATS in lined contests. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is riding a four-game SU and ATS home winning streak, running their season record at Smith Coliseum to 14-4 (7-6-1 ATS in lined action).
The Red Raiders have failed to cash in 17 of 23 on Tuesday and six of seven as a road underdog of seven to 12½ points. However, they’re also on positive pointspread runs of 4-1 on the road (all as a ‘dog), 7-2 in non-conference action, 9-4 after a SU victory and 5-2 after a non-cover.
Ole Miss carries nothing but positive ATS trends, including 6-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-0 as a favorite, 9-1-1 as a favorite of seven to 12½ points, 6-1-1 as a home chalk in that range, 5-1 in non-league games, 4-1-1 versus the Big 12, 4-1 after a SU victory and 10-4 on Tuesday.
Texas Tech has stayed under the total in four straight overall, but it is also on “over” runs of 22-9 as a visitor, 11-3-1 in non-conference games, 20-9 as a road pup and 17-8 after a non-cover. Ole Miss has gone “over” in nine of 11 on Tuesday, but is otherwise on “under” stretches of 3-1-1 overall, 19-9-1 when coming off a SU victory and 3-1-1 as a favorite of seven to 12½ points (all at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS
North Carolina (18-16, 11-21 ATS) at UAB (25-8, 17-13-1 ATS)
One year after winning the national championship, North Carolina now finds itself a victory away from reaching the NIT’s Final Four as it treks to Birmingham, Ala., for a clash with the Blazers.
The Tar Heels ended the regular season with a humiliating 32-point loss at archrival Duke, then went one-and-done in the ACC tournament for the first time in history, losing 62-58 to Georgia Tech as a 3½-point underdog. However, North Carolina has sprung to life in the NIT, knocking off William & Mary 80-72 on Tuesday (falling just short as a nine-point home favorite) and upsetting Mississippi State 76-74 on Saturday (cashing as a 7½-point road underdog). Saturday’s victory snapped an 0-3 ATS drought.
UAB’s Big Dance dreams ended when it dropped three in a row to end the season, including a 58-44 upset loss to Southern Miss in the first round of the Conference USA tournament. But the Blazers have gotten their act together in the NIT, blowing out Coastal Carolina last Tuesday (65-49 as a 10½-point home favorite) and North Carolina State on Saturday (72-52 as a 5½-point home chalk). UAB is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games (4-1 ATS at home).
North Carolina hasn’t won three straight games since scoring a trio of double-digit home wins over Marshall, Rutgers and Albany from Dec. 22-Dec. 30. Also, the Tar Heels, who lost eight of their first 10 road games, haven’t won consecutive contests on the highway all year. They’re 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS in road/neutral-site contests for the season, losing by an average of 7 ppg (75-68). UAB is 15-3 on its home floor (7-9 ATS), beating visitors by an average of 10.1 ppg (69.7-59.6).
Aside from a solid 44-19 ATS mark in its last 63 non-conference games, the Tar Heels sport a slew of negative pointspread trends, including 6-16 overall, 3-9 on the road, 2-10 as an underdog, 0-8 as a pup of less than seven points, 5-12 against winning teams and 1-5 after a spread-cover.
UAB has failed to cash in four of five against the ACC and four of five as a small home favorite (less than seven points). However, the Blazers are also on ATS hot streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 8-3 outside of Conference USA, 5-0 on Tuesday, 5-2 against winning teams and 5-2-1 as a favorite.
UNC has topped the total in four straight non-conference games, but from there it is on “under” runs of 15-4 overall, 5-1 on the road, 6-2 as an underdog, 8-2 as a pup of less than seven points, 5-1 after a SU win and 10-1 after a spread-cover. Likewise, the Blazers have one “over” trend (4-1 vs. the ACC) offset by a bunch of “under” streaks, including 4-1 overall, 7-3 in non-conference action, 5-0 on Tuesday and 6-2 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UAB and UNDER
NBA
Denver (47-23, 31-34-5 ATS) at New York (24-45, 32-37-1 ATS)
The Nuggets, who have been inconsistent on the highway all season, begin a five-game road trip with a visit to Madison Square Garden for a clash with the Knicks.
Denver has been off since Saturday’s surprising 102-97 home loss to the Bucks as a 10-point favorite, falling to 0-4 ATS in its last four games. It was the third straight contest that the high-scoring Nuggets were held to 97 points or less after averaging 115.8 ppg in their previous seven outings. Denver is still 8-2 in its last 10 games (4-5-1 ATS), including 3-1 on the road (2-1-1 ATS). However, George Karl’s club remains just a .500 team on the road (17-17 SU, 14-20 ATS).
The Knicks jumped out to a 32-17 lead after the first quarter against Houston on Sunday but couldn’t sustain the surge, losing 116-112 as a three-point home underdog. Prior to the defeat, New York has won and covered three of its previous four overall and two in a row (SU and ATS) at home. For the season, New York is 15-22 at the Garden (17-20 ATS).
The Nuggets have dominated the Knicks lately, winning four straight meetings and eight of the last 10. However, New York has gotten the cash in the last two clashes, including a 128-125 loss in Denver as a 12½-point underdog on Nov. 27. Prior to the last two meetings, the Nuggets had been on a 6-2 ATS run in this rivalry.
Additionally, the favorite has cashed in 14 of the last 19 battles and the visitor is 6-2 ATS in the last eight.
Denver’s positive ATS runs of 19-7 against the Atlantic Division, 6-2 after a SU loss, 10-4-1 after a non-cover and 4-1-1 when playing on two days of rest are offset but negative pointspread slides of 0-4 overall, 0-4 against the Eastern Conference, 7-18-2 against losing teams and 1-9-1 versus extremely weak competition (winning percentage below .400).
New York is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 versus the Western Conference, but otherwise is on ATS upticks of 9-2 against the Northwest Division, 10-3 on Tuesday and 3-0-1 after both a SU loss and an ATS setback.
The Nuggets have stayed under the total in five of seven overall, but otherwise they’re on “over” runs of 10-4 against the Eastern Conference, 5-2 versus the Atlantic Division, 4-1 on Tuesday and 5-2 after a SU loss. Meanwhile, the under is 7-3 in the Knicks’ last 10 overall, but after that, they’re on “over” surges of 6-1 against the Western Conference, 11-4 after a SU loss, 8-2 after a non-cover and 4-0 on Tuesday.
Finally, five of the last seven series meetings overall and four of the last five clashes in New York have jumped over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
Charlotte at Washington
The Bobcats are coming off a 77-71 loss at Miami and look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Charlotte is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-6)
Game 651-652: Charlotte at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 120.762; Washington 113.406
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 7 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 6; 184
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-6); Over
Game 653-654: Denver at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 124.495; New York 117.598
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6; 217
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6); Under
Game 655-656: Indiana at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.743; Detroit 116.427
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3 1/2); Over
Game 657-658: LA Clippers at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 109.461; Dallas 117.866
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 8 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 10; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+10); Under
NCAAB
North Carolina at UAB
The Tar Heels look to take advantage of a UAB team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a home favorite between 1 and 6 1/2 points. North Carolina is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Tar Heels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+5)
Game 659-660: Texas Tech at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 62.278; Mississippi 69.938
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+9)
Game 661-662: North Carolina at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 63.997; UAB 63.282
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 1
Vegas Line: UAB by 5
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+5)
NHL
Phoenix at Chicago
The Coyotes look to build on their 10-1 record in their last 11 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Phoenix is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Coyotes favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+150)
Game 51-52: Florida at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.868; Toronto 11.105
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+135); Over
Game 53-54: Boston at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.091; Atlanta 12.461
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Under
Game 55-56: Columbus at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.150; New Jersey 12.434
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-215); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-215); Under
Game 57-58: Philadelphia at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.180; Ottawa 11.873
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-115); Under
Game 59-60: Carolina at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.547; Tampa Bay 10.811
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+100); Over
Game 61-62: San Jose at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.928; Minnesota 10.010
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-120); Over
Game 63-64: Dallas at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.905; Nashville 11.295
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+155); Under
Game 65-66: Phoenix at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.411; Chicago 11.524
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+150); Under
Game 67-68: Anaheim at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.106; Calgary 12.716
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 69-70: Vancouver at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.609; Edmonton 12.025
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-260); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+220); Over
Rocketman
Texas Tech vs. Mississippi
Play: Mississippi -9
Texas Tech is 1-6 ATS since 1997 and 1-5 ATS last 3 years on the road when the total is 155 to 159 1/2. Mississippi is 31-14 ATS since 1997 after scoring 80 points or more. Mississippi is 5-1 ATS last 3 years in the NIT Tournament. Texas Tech is allowing 81 points per game on the road this year. Ole Miss is 15-4 SU at home this year scoring 81.6 points per game. Red Raiders are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 Tuesday games. Red Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Red Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Rebels are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Rebels are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Rebels are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12. Rebels are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Tuesday games. We'll recommend a small play on Mississippi tonight!
Tom Freese
Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Detroit Pistons
Indiana is led in scoring by Danny Granger and his 23.4 points a game. Forward Troy Murphy scores 14.3 points and 10 rebounds a game. Center Roy Hibbert scores 11.5 points a game. Guard Dahntay Jones scores 10.5 points a game. Point guard T.J. Ford scores 10.3 points a game. The Pacers are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Detroit is led in scoring by Richard Hamilton and his 18 points a game. Guard Rodney Stuckey scores 17 points a game. Ben Gordon scores 13.4 points a game. Forward Charlie Villanueva scores 10 points a game. Point guard Will Bynum scores 10 points a game. The Pistons score 93.4 points a game. Detroit is 6-2 ATS when playing with one day of rest and they are 3-1-1 ATS their last 5 games as favorites. PLAY ON DETROIT -
Sam Martin
Charlotte Bobcats at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats
We almost used the Bobcats as a premium selection here, but the line was a few points higher than we expected. Still, there's some line value here with Charlotte who take on a Washington team that has dropped 11 straight. And with the Bobcats losing their first two games of this three-game road trip, we expect Charlotte to come out extremely focused and get at least one win on this roadie. Bobcats wins big! 5* Play on Charlotte.
Hollywood Sports
Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
Denver (47-23) lost at home to the red-hot Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday by a 102-97 score. Now they embark on a five-game road trip in the waning moments of the regular season. Chauncey Billups understands what is at stake now. Said Billups: "I feel like this is a huge, huge trip for us ... This next week is huge for us as far as positioning, as far as home-court (advantage). It just means so much. It's not make or break, but, man, it's huge. It's huge. It's huge. ... It's big. It's big. It's as big as it gets outside of do or die." While not covering in their last four games, Denver has still won eight of their last ten games. They should bounce back here as they have covered six of their last eight games coming off a loss. And when playing with two-days rest, the Nuggets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games. New York (25-45) comes off a 116-112 loss to Houston on Sunday. The Knicks remain not very imposing at home with their 15-22 record. Defense is the biggest problem for coach Mike D'Antonio's club as they allow 104.1 PPG on 47.8% shooting in Madison Square Garden. And the Knicks have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games as an underdog at home. Historically, Denver handles situations like this very well as they are 52-23-3 ATS in their last 78 games when favored by 5-10.5 points. Denver should begin this important road trip with a decisive win over the listless Knicks. Lay the points with Denver.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on North Carolina/UAB UNDER 136.5
UAB is a top 20 defensive team in the country, only allowing 60.4 ppg. With this in mind, the Under is worth a shot here. First off, both of these teams have been Unders machines this season. UNC is 20-10 Under in all lined games this season and UAB is 17-9 Under in all lined games this season. Good rebounding teams (teams that don't give up a lot of second chance points) and good defensive teams that don't foul a lot (teams that don't send their opponent to the foul line to score with the clock stopped) are usually good Unders teams. Both of these teams can rebound. UNC is 11-1 Under versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4 or more per game after 15+ games this season and UAB is 6-0 Under versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4 or more per game after 15+ games this season. UAB is also on an 8-0 Unders run versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game after 15+ games. And lastly, UNC is 10-2 Under versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or less points per game this season. We'll take the Under this evening.
Jimmy the Moose
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -10
Mavs look to get back on the winning side especially at home where they have dropped 2 of their last 3. Dallas has won 5 straight at home vs the Clippers and should easily take this one tonight. Clippers just 2-8 ATS last 10 overall, 1-9 straight up. LA just 18-41 ATS last 59 road games played. On the road this season Clippers allowing 105 points/game while the Mavs average 102 pts/game at home. Look for a Dallas blowout tonight.
EZWINNERS
Los Angeles Clippers +10
Dallas is not playing their best basketball right now as the Mavericks are coming off of tough back to back losses to Boston and New Orleans and they have lost three out of their last four overall. Dallas has also been down right horrible as a home favorite this season as they are now just 3-26-1 against the spread in their last thirty home games. The Clippers have been struggling as well as they come into this game as losers of nine out of their last ten games but the Mavs have not fared well against the spread at home even against bad teams as Dallas is only 5-21-1 against the spread in their last 27 home games against a team with a losing road record. Baron Davis and Eric Gordon should be able to do enough damage to keep this one within the number and the underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +1.43 over TORONTO
This is just the perfect spot to go against the Maple Leafs. The Leafs stock is soaring right now after six wins in its last seven games and that has created the biggest overlay on today’s board. Furthermore, they received high praise in the papers yesterday after wins against perhaps its three biggest rivals, the Habs, the Sens and the Devils. So, give the Maple Leafs credit for playing well and time will tell if all the moves paid off. However, this is still a very beatable team and the Panthers come in here being the most undervalued team in the business. They get very little recognition and less credit but selling them short is a mistake. They can play and they can battle with anyone. They’re healthier than they’ve been all season and with Nathan Horton back they just got a whole lot better. Horton has a goal and three assists in three games since returning from a fractured tibia that sidelined him for 17 contests. The Panthers have lost three of four but they lost to Buffalo, Washington and Phoenix, the latter in OT and they’re coming off a 5-2 win over the Lightning. The Panthers are not only taking back a very sweet tag but its chance of winning here is at least as good as the home teams’ and maybe more. Play: Florida +1.43 (Risking 2 units).
Carolina +1.16 over TAMPA BAY
The Hurricanes have been out of it since about November so playing for nothing is not new to them. The Lightning were right in the thick of thick of things up to the Olympic break and subsequently threw in the towel right after it. Since coming off the break the Lightning has dropped 10 of its last 11 games and overall they’ve dropped 12 of 14 to fall completely out of the picture. The Bolts are now just playing out the string, as they have no life in them whatsoever and a completely empty building is not going to instill any life into them either. Antero Nittymaki is a goaltender that I’ve never trusted. His style and mechanics are poor, he’s slow and on any given night he’s prone to getting yanked. Okay, back to the Canes. This team has at least been playing to win and they’ve been doing so for the better part of 10 weeks. In fact, since Jan. 8, the Hurricanes have posted a 19-11 record and that includes a recent 11-2 stretch. The bottom line is their desire to win is about 100 times stronger than the Bolts and that absolutely gives them an edge in this contest. Throw in a price and this one just makes sense. Play: Carolina +1.16 (Risking 2 units).