JR Tips
Pacers at Pistons
The Indiana Pacers won their last game over the Thunder but will try to snap a nine-game road losing streak when they face the Detroit Pistons tonight. The Pacers just beat the Pistons 106-102 last Friday as Danny Granger has averaged 28.9 points against them over the past two seasons. Granger scored 29 points in Friday's win and 25 points in a 105-93 victory in the previous trip to the Palace on Jan. 22 nd as the Pacers look for a sixth straight victory over Detroit and the season seep for this year. The Pistons are struggling with five straight losses and a 2-12 record over the past four weeks after losing 104-79 in Cleveland, their lowest scoring output in nearly two months and the fifth straight game the Pistons have allowed at least 104 points and they've giving up an average of 110.8 per game over that span. What has been consistent for the Pistons is their lack of defense. The Pacers have dominated the Pistons this year but look for the Pistons to bounce back from their worst offensive performance of the season although they will need to score over 110 points to win tonight's game as every game in this series this year has been competitive.
Take OVER 205
Matt Fargo
Denver Nuggets vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks +5.5
The public is all over Denver in this game yet we are seeing reverse line movement. The Nuggets opened as six-point favorites and it is down to -5.5 in most places and that is definitely a trigger to look at the underdog. Denver is 17-17 on the road this season and in the NBA that is a pretty good record while going 15-16-3 ATS. The Nuggets have played up and down to the competition numerous times this season when playing away from home as they are 8-3-2 as a road underdog but just 7-13-1 ATS in the 21 games they have been favored on the road, winning just 10 of those outright. They are only 9-18 ATS this season overall against teams with a losing record and surprisingly, this is the type of team that Denver struggles against as it is 3-12 ATS this season against teams allowing 103 or more ppg on defense. Denver is coming off a three-game homestand where it lost its last game against Milwaukee and many will look for a bounceback here however with a game at Boston on deck for tomorrow night, I think it may be just the opposite and be more of a lookahead situation. The Knicks have been hot or miss of late as they are 5-6 over their last 11 games including a 3-2 record at home. They are 6-4-1 ATS over this stretch and for the season they are an even 14-14 ATS against teams with a winning record and they have actually been more successful against teams that are above average as they are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games against teams that have a winning percentage greater than .600. New York has not fared well against the Western Conference with the exception of the Northwest Division where it is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games. While the losses have been piling up for the Knicks, they have remained competitive for the most part. Despite being 6-18 in their last 24 games, of those 18 losses, nine were by seven points or fewer, five of which were at home including two in overtime. There is no chance the playoffs would be close by but a few bounces their way and the record could very well be a lot better. The Knicks have not lost a cover in four straight games coming off a loss and they are in excellent shape to continue that tonight. 3* New York Knicks
Tony George
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: LA Clippers +10
Dallas off a Monday game where they got blistered last night. THE WORST BET IN THE NBA WITH A HOME TEAM IS DALLAS. 3-26-1 ATS their last 30 homers, just unreal for one of the NBA's elite teams. Add in the fact BIOTH teams are off bad beats but LA had an extra day to rest up, while Dallas was busy losing by 16 points last night, and are laying a HUGE number in this one. I like the UGLY team cover here as Vegas oddsmakers continue to lay premium numbers with Dallas at home.
Wunderdog
Indiana Pacers vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Indiana Pacers +4½
Indiana is in the midst of their worst season since 1988-89. But, they are actually playing good ball right now having won three of four games. "Teams come in here and kind of overlook us," forward Troy Murphy said. "They probably figure that a team with our record would have packed it in by now." It's true - teams don't get up for Indiana. Even a team as bad as Detroit is favored against the Pacers. But, I feel like Indiana is playing harder right now and Detroit really shouldn't be favored against anyone. The Pistons are just 19-34 ATS since last season as a home favorite. There's no reason Indiana can't win this game. At a minimum, I expect it to be close. The Pistons’ defense has gone out the window as they have allowed 111 points per game over their last five. When facing a losing team, Detroit is just 28-43 ATS since last season. They struggle against teams like Indiana that like to hoist up the long-ball. Dating back to last season, Detroit is just 30-48 ATS vs. teams that attempt 18+ three-pointers per game. The Pacers beat Oklahoma City by 11 last game, scoring 121 in the process. This team is 25-13 ATS since last season after scoring 110+ last game. When coming off back-to-back losses this season, the Pistons are just 11-21 ATS. I like Indiana and the points here.
THE PREZ
Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks
The New York Knicks gave the Denver Nuggets a tough time the fist time these teams met in the altitude of Denver this season, and we look for a similarly close game here at sea level in the Big Apple, making these points worth taking.
The Nuggets prevailed in Colorado 128-125, with the New Yorkers easily covering the 12-point spread. The Knicks are an improved team this year with their 25 wins, and although they are still just 15-22 at home, they are only losing their games at Madison Square Garden by -0.9 points per contest. They also generally get up when facing Western Conference teams, especially those from the Northwest Division as the Knicks are on a 9-2 run against the spread vs. those clubs.
The Nuggets have been a great home team as usual this year (30-6), but they are at .500 on the road at 17-17, and they have a slim average winning margin away from home of +0.8 points. They have historically struggled when playing in New York, and they beat a much worse Knicks team than this one by just seven points when they last visited Gotham last season.
In fact, the Nuggets only show one double-digit win over the Knicks in the last five head-to-head meetings regardless of the venue, so we do not see anything different for this contest. Look for a hard-fought game right down to the wire, and do not be too surprised at an outright upset.
Pick: Knicks +6
LT PROFITS
Texas Tech at Mississippi
The Texas Red Raiders must have benefited for playing the upper echelon teams in the Big 12 this season, as they are now just one win away from reaching the NIT Final Four at Madison Square Garden in New York next week, and we like their chances to at least take this game vs. the Mississippi Revels in Oxford down to the wire.
The Red Raiders are on a 3-1 run against the spread, as they covered the 17-point number when they lost by 12 points to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament, and they followed up that effort by going on the road and destroying Seton Hall 87-69 in the first round of the NIT. They did get more of a battle than expected from Jacksonville last game, the same Dolphins team that upset top seeded Arizona State on the road, but Texas Tech did rally from a seven-point deficit at half.
The Raiders are a very good three-point shooting team at 37.5 percent, ranking them 44 in the country in that department, so that should make it difficult for the Rebels to open up a big lead here against the Tech sharpshooters. This is especially true since the Mississippi defense ranks 141 in the country in three-point defense at 33.5 percent.
Now, the Rebels are 14-4 at home this year, but we feel that the SEC is very weak this season and we do not see a single quality non-conference home win on the Mississippi schedule. Yes, they are 8-0 in non-conference home games, but according to Pomeroy, the highest rated team in those conquests was Southern Miss at 99!
Well, Texas Tech is currently ranked 72 by Pomeroy, and the Red Raiders have played a significantly tougher schedule in what is probably the best conference in the country. We will gladly take this boatload of points in this situation.
Pick: Texas Tech +9
Scott Rickenbach
Denver @ New York Knicks
PICK: Under 219.5
The Nuggets have stayed under the total in three straight games but the most recent of those unders was a home loss versus Milwaukee on Saturday. In other words, the defensive intensity is likely to be up for Denver tonight as they look to quickly resume their winning ways. Note that the Nuggets are coming off of a home-stand and Denver is 6-1 to the under this season after playing three consecutive home games. Also, the Nuggets are visiting New York tonight where they encounter a Knicks team that had stayed under in 7 of their last 9 games before their match-up with Houston on Sunday flew over the total.
New York had won three of their last four games before suffering that home loss against the Rockets so, just as we expect with the Nuggets tonight, we do expect the Knicks defensive intensity to be kicked up a notch as they come into this game off of a loss. New York is a perfect 3-0 to the under this season as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. That record is also a solid 11-6 to the under the last three seasons with those same parameters. With those total already moving up substantially this morning, we see even more line value here with the under as both teams battle back after suffering home losses in their last game. Look for a fair amount of defensive intensity here and that certainly does not appear to be factored into this line. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in the New York Knicks game on Tuesday Night.
Larry Ness
Indiana @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit -4
The Pistons have already been eliminated from the postseason and the Pacers are about to join them, which would mark the fourth straight season in which they will have missed the playoffs. In fact, the 24-46 Pacers are in danger of finishing with their worst winning percentage since going 28-54 in 1988-89. Detroit is stumbling to the end of the regular season, with five consecutive losses (allowing 110.4 PPG during that span) and 12 losses in its last 14 games (4-10 ATS). The Pacers just beat the Pistons last Friday at Indiana (106-102) but the Pistons have to like the idea that they they got to the free throw line 34 times in that game. Stuckey (17.0-4.1-4.9) was back on the court for Detroit in that game, after missing six games following a collapse on the bench March 5 in Cleveland. He scored a team-high 25 points off the bench at Indiana but was held to only four points in his second game back vs the Cavaliers on Sunday. Expect Stuckey to be way better tonight. The Pistons have excellent depth in the backcourt with Hamilton (18.0-4.4 APG), Bynum and Gordon and while their frontcourt is a shell of its former self, other than Granger (23.4-5.7), the Pacers don't offer much themselves up front. Dunleavy was limited to just 18 games last season but after missing most of November, has been a regular contributor. However, his line reads 10.1-3.4-1.5, which is significantly down from the numbers he posted back in the 2007-08 season (19.1-5.2-3.5). PG Ford is sidelined, as are frontcourt players Hansbrough and Foster. The Pistons average just 93.4 PPG (29th) but the Pacers are allowing 107.6 PPG away from home, one of the main reasons that they are just 7-30 on the road, entering this contest on a nine-game road losing streak. Make that 10 straight losses after tonight. Take the Pistons.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Nuggets/Knicks UNDER 219
Denver is 19-9 UNDER in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season, and we are only seeing a total of 206.8 points scored in these games on average. Denver hasn't been as strong offensively on the road this season, averaging just 103.9 points. Plus, it enters this contest having scored 97 or fewer points in 3 straight games. Also, the Knicks have been held under the century mark in 7 of their last 10 games. With neither team hitting on all cylinders right now, we'll take the Under tonight.
Dennis Macklin
Boston Bruins vs. Atlanta Thrashers
Play: Boston Bruins -114
These two are battling it out for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and both having righted the ship of late. The injury plagued Bruins are 5-5 in L10 after 11 straight losses while the Thrashers have won straight after six straight losses. Off four wins and on home ice versus .500 opp you would think the ATL would be a 50 cent fave. Not Here. The Bruins have owned the series going 10-1 the last three years including 5-1 on this ice. The series TY is 3-0 Beantown with a dominating 14-7 goal aggregate. Boston and likely Tim Thomas to find a way to shut down Thrasher snipers and come away with all important road ice win. Take the Bruins.
Black Widow
1* on Washington Wizards +7
The Wizards are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games, playing at Denver, at Portland and at the Lakers, three of the best teams in the Western Conference. They lost by 10 or less to all three opponents, and easily stayed within the spread in all three games. Now they face Charlotte at home which will be a much easier test than what they've been dealt recently. Washington should not be catching 7 points in this match-up. The Bobcats have lost 3 straight road games against the Pacers, Hawks and Heat and Charlotte is just 10-26 SU in road games this season. The Bobcats have no business being this heavily favored on the road tonight with that paultry road record. Washington is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) after 7 or more consecutive losses since 1996. They are showing such excellent value here and we're not about to pass up this line. Take the Wizards and the points.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Pick: L.A. Clippers +9.5
Dallas is the worst home team in the league in terms of covering the spread. Despite going 24-11 SU at home this season, the Mavs are a putrid 8-27 ATS in home games this year. Dallas is outscoring their opponents at home by a mere 1.5 PPG, not the differential you would expect from a team with a 24-11 home record. But the facts are the facts, and Dallas simply has trouble putting teams away by double-digits at home. The Mavs are just 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. After a long winning streak, this team is back to reality now and it will be very difficult for them to put away the Clippers tonight playing the second of a back-to-back.
This play also falls under a system that is 56-27 (68%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. Don't forget that Drew Gooden played for Dallas this season before getting traded to the Clippers. His knowledge of the Mavs' scheme, plus the fact that he's going to be playing extra hard to beat his former team, will certainly come in handy tonight. Bet the Clippers.
Info Plays
3* on Detroit Pistons -4
Reasons why the Pistons cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. This is a 37-14 ATS System hitting 72.5% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) This is the ideal spot to back the Pistons. Neither the Pacers nor the Pistons have a shot at making the playoffs, but Detroit has a lot more to play for here. The Pistons have lost 5 straight games to Indiana, and coming off a bad loss to Cleveland, they will be highly motivated to get some payback at home tonight. The home team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings. Bet the Pistons at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
Charlotte/WASHINGTON under 182½
The Cats rely on its tenacious defense to win games and that has proved to be a successful strategy, as Charlotte is in eighth spot and primed to make the playoffs. The Wizards cannot score and they’ve been held to under 100 points in a dozen straight games and far below that when playing a strong defensive team. In fact, in two recent games against the defensive minded Trail Blazers and Celtics, Washington scored 74 and 83 points respectively. They recently had another 74-point output against Milwaukee. The Bobcats are one of the best defensive teams in the Association and they, too, also struggle to score points. In fact, Charlotte scored just 71 points against the Heat in its last game and prior to that, in a game that went into OT, they scored just 92 in Atlanta but had just 84 after regulation. So, even if the Cats put up 95 or thereabouts (which is highly unlikely) the Wizards will be hard-pressed to score 85 and the result, barring OT, should be under this seemingly low total. Play: Charlotte/Washington under 182½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
King Creole
DET / ND Over 207
H-O-T Indiana PACERS (5-0 ATS last 5 / 8-1 ATS last 9).... versus C-O-L-D Detroit PISTONS (0-5 SU and ATS last 5).....
Let's QUERY it!
5-0 OVER / UNDER SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST: All NBA road underdogs playing off 4 or more ATS wins in row (PACERS)... versus any opponent off 4 or more ATS losses in a row (PISTONS).
Detroit just lost BIG to division rival Cleveland in their last game (Score was 104 to 79)...
7-1 O/U since January: All NBA home favorites of 2 > points who scored LESS than ( points playing off a SU underdog WIN of 20 or more points (PACERS).