Denver Money
EDM / VAN Over 5.5
Edmonton has played good hockey over the past two games and will need to do it again tonight if they hope to finally beat the Vancouver Cancuks. While personally I do think there is some value in Edmonton tonight at home, I don't see them winning but do see them getting the puck in the net a few times. Both of these teams have been finding way to score goals lately and we should see this continue tonight.
Over the last 5 games the Canucks have scored an average of 3.20 goals and allowed an average of 2.60 goals. The Oilers have scored an average of 3.20 goals while allowing 3.60 goals. Overall for the season, the Oilers have struggled to stop teams from scoring allowing an average of 3.38 goals per contest and the Canucks have scored an average of 3.24 for the season. I think we will see plenty of shots in this game and should cover the 5.5!
Jimmy Moore
Texas Tech vs. Mississippi
Pick: Texas Tech +9
The Red Raiders are having a great run in the NIT and now they are getting a boatload of points from Mississippi. Tech is 7-3 ATS on non-conference games and will be ready for whatever Ole Miss throws at them.
Scott Delaney
L.A. Clippers at Dallas
Though this might seem like the perfect spot for the Mavericks to shake a somewhat rough patch, I see L.A. giving them a rough time tonight.
The Mavericks have dropped two in a row and three of four, and yes, they've dominated the Clippers in terms of wins and losses, but do you realize Dallas is on an abysmal 3-27 ATS run at home? Plus, though the Clippers have lost four straight and 10 of 11 in this series, the Clippers have covered three of the last five meetings and five of eight.
Dallas, meanwhile, has lost five straight to the books, as its deefense has wilted quite a bit, allowing an average of 107.6 points per game - and that includes games against the Nets, Knicks and Bulls.
In fact, the Knicks came into Big D and ended that 13-game win streak by swatting the Mavericks, 128-94.
Dallas probably wins, but I want the underdog here.
1♦ CLIPPERS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play winner is on the Denver Nuggets over New York. This is an angry bunch of ticked off Nuggets after dropping a rare home game to Milwaukee Sunday. Denver might only be .500 on the road, but they do get the job done against the Knicks, winning the last four meetings. I realize this many points might be a bit much to ask, but I'm willing to take the risk as I think they come in focused after losing a home game. As a Mavericks fan, obviously I'd love to see the Knicks win, so you can tell how tough this selection is for me. But I just think Denver is better across the starting five, they're deeper, they shoot better from the FT line and I trust their deep shooters a little more in the clutch. Defensively they clearly need to step up, but the Knicks are the type of team that can really make an opposing defense look good. I see the Nuggets by at least 10 tonight.
2♦ DENVER
Chuck O'Brien
L.A. Clippers (+9') at DALLAS
Take the Clippers plus the points at Dallas in Tuesday’s NBA action.
I don’t have much to say about the Clippers, because you can’t say anything positive. They’ve lost 11 of their last 13 games (3-10 ATS) overall and they’re in the midst of a 10-game road losing streak (2-8 ATS). However, those statistics look positively impressive when lined up next to the Mavericks’ woeful pointspread numbers at home.
Going back to mid-November (so basically three weeks into the season), Dallas is 3-26-1 ATS at home, including 2-26-1 ATS as a home chalk and 0-25-1 ATS when laying more than four points at home. So basically, when you’ve played Dallas as a home favorite over the past four months, you’re throwing money away.
Since ripping off 13 wins in a row over a month-long stretch, the Mavs have stumbled a bit, losing three of four (0-4 ATS). All three losses were ugly, including a 34-point home defeat to the Knicks and last night’s 16-point setback at New Orleans. Furthermore, Dallas has been a consistent money-burner against bad teams (3-13 ATS last 16 against teams with a winning percentage below .400), and the Mavs have failed to cover in seven straight games on Tuesday and six of eight after a SU loss.
The road team is on a 6-1 ATS roll in this series, cashing in the last four in a row, and the Clippers have gotten the money in each of their last three trips to Dallas (losing the last two by a total of seven points). Finally, L.A. is well-rested (this is just its second game since Wednesday), while the Mavs are playing for the fourth time since Wednesday (and they have a big game coming up Thursday at Portland).
4♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Michael Cannon
Denver (-6') at NEW YORK
I’m now 19-7 with my last 26 overall free plays after cashing in with Wisconsin-Green Bay last night!
Take the Nuggets as the road chalk over the Knicks.
Denver has dominated this series recently, winning four straight and eight of the last 10.
The chalk has cashed in 14 of the last 19 battles and the visitor is 6-2 ATS in the last eight. The Nuggets are also on positive ATS runs of 19-7 against the Atlantic Division, 6-2 after a SU loss, 10-4-1 after a non-cover and 4-1-1 when playing on two days of rest.
New York is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 versus the Western Conference.
Take the Nuggets as they grab the road win and cover.
2♦ DENVER
Karl Garrett
Charlotte (-5') at WASHINGTON
Monday comp play winner on Nevada plus the points. It is a 25-15-1 comp play run my last 41.
For Tuesday night in the NBA, going to lay the points with Charlotte to end their 2 game slide with a convincing win this evening in DC.
The Wizards come into this game having lost their last 11 games, with the last 4 of those losses coming on the west coast. I expect Washington to be just a little tired in their first game back on east coast time, and you can assume the Bobcats will pounce early on the Wiz.
Charlotte has lost their last 2 games straight up, but are on a 7-2-1 against the spread their last 10 games overall. The Bobcats are also 6-1 straight up the last 7 series meetings, with a 5-2 spread mark in those 7 games.
With Charlotte in the playoff hunt, expect the 'Cats to get up for this game, and hand the Wizards loss # 12 in a row.
Lay it.
4♦ CHARLOTTE
Chris Jordan
Texas Tech at MISSISSIPPI (-9)
Ole Miss' first two home games in this event drew some of the largest crowds of the tournament; with a chance to go to New York with a win tonight, you better believe the team's 9,000-seat arena will be amplified tonight.
That won't bode well for Texas Tech, which might have looked good to get to this point, but is also the same team that lost seven straight games and 12 of 16 to close the season. The Raiders are also coming in with a 4-9 road record.
It doesn't get any easier against an offensively explosive Ole Miss team that has four of five starters who average at least nine points per game.
And make note, the Rebels haven't lost a home game in this event since 1983 and is 14-4 at home this year. They finished conference play tied for first place in the Southeastern Conference's Western Division, and most certainly might have felt a bit snubbed by being left out of the Big Dance.
Lay the chalk in this one, as Ole Miss rolls.
1♦ MISSISSIPPI
Derek Mancini
North Carolina (+4) at UAB
Now 3 straight Free Play winnes with Connecticut last night, plus Xavier and the Hawks Sunday! I'm making it four in a row with a Tarheels team that finds itself with the right match up at the right time tonight at UAB!
The right match up comes against a C-USA foe that's best smallish at best, with star Elijah Millsap standing just 6'6. He's their best player, by far, and while he'll get his shots, I can all but guarantee he won't be grabbing 15 boards against this North Carolina frontline. UAB's only "true" frontline player is 6'8 Howard Crawford, and he'll be entirely overmatched in this contest.
The right time is now, as a young Tarheels team is finally starting to buy into coach Williams system. Too many individuals, and not enough team play doomed this North Carolina team from the get-go. But after watching them play Mississippi State Saturday, its clear they've got their eyes on the prize, even if it isn't the tournament they originally thought they be participating in.
All reports I'm hearing is that Zeller will play, and with Thompson, Graves, and the suddenly blossoming Henson in the frontcourt... Blazers are in big trouble tonight literally. From a talent perspective, there's no question who's better. But it was always a question of desire for the Tarheels, and this team has finally got the "fire in their belly." North Carolina plus the points is the play here.
3♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Bobby Maxwell
North Carolina (+4') at UAB
I'm on a FREE play run of 71-45-3 and today I have a comp winner coming on the college hardwood as I grab the points with North Carolina in the Tar Heels' NIT contest at UAB.
We all know the Tar Heels struggled through the ACC campaign and we all saw what Duke did to this team in the regular season finale, winning by 32. But this team has responded to the coaching of Roy Williams. This was a young team to start with and too much was heaped on them early in the season, but they’ve started to figure things out and looked very good against Mississippi State on Saturday, winning 76-74 as a 7 ½-point road ‘dog.
UAB lost three straight to close their regular season, including a humiliating 58-44 loss in the C-USA opening round to Southern Miss. They have scored two easy wins in the NIT, crushing Coastal Carolina and NC State.
The Tar Heels are playing more like a team now, and that is apparent by the 14 assists by the starters against Mississippi State. William Graves led the way with 17 points, but John Henson held them together with his 12 points, eight rebounds and three assists.
UAB has failed to cash in four of their last five against ACC squads and four of five as a favorite of less than seven points. On the other side, North Carolina is 44-19 ATS in its last 63 non-conference games. They take care of business away from the ACC.
I think what we’re seeing is North Carolina pride coming out. These kids are stepping up their game in the postseason even if it is just the NIT. Grab the points and play the Tar Heels.
3♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Stephen Nover
North Carolina (+4') at UAB
I've now nailed five straight complimentary NBA winners, and will carry the momentum over to college ball, as I take a look at North Carolina and Birmingham.
Now that the pressure is off, North Carolina is playing well.
The Tar Heels are one win away from reaching the semifinals of the NIT and earning a trip to Madison Square Garden.
North Carolina can gain back a measure of respect by getting to New York. The Tar Heels have been impressive in NIT victories against William & Mary and Mississippi State, perhaps the best team not to make the Big Dance.
A key for North Carolina has been reducing its turnovers from an average of 15 per game down to 11.
Alabama-Birmingham is excited to be playing against North Carolina, the defending Big Dance champions. The Blazers haven't faced too many teams, if any, as talented as North Carolina.
As disappointing as North Carolina was this season, the Tar Heels' talent level can't be denied in this matchup. This is still Atlantic Coast versus Conference USA.
The Tar Heels also have a big size advantage.
3♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Brett Atkins
Today, I have a free winner coming at you on the pro hardwood as I go ahead and lay the chalk with the Nuggets on the road in New York, taking on the Knicks.
One thing is for sure, there won't be any defense played in this one. Denver has won the last four matchups and scored at least 111 points in each of the four meetings.
The Nuggets have had a few days off leading into this one, last playing on Saturday when they were shocked by the Bucks in Denver as a 10-point favorite. With two days off, they are on a 4-1-1 ATS run.
The Knicks aren't stopping anybody and even lost at home to the lowly Nets a few weeks ago. Look for the Nuggets to march in here today and score about 120 points and win this one by 15.
Lay the chalk with the Nuggets.
.
4♦ DENVER
Jay McNeil
Charlotte at Washington
Charlotte needs a bounce-back game, and it couldn't ask for an easier one. The Bobcats lost back-to-back games to Eastern Conference contenders, and desperately need a blowout win to regain some momentum.
Their clinging to the No. 8 spot in the standings, and you better believe the Michael Jordan-owned 'Cats are going to play at their best against one of the league's worst teams.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see their best basketball of the season over the next week, as they close a three-game road trip by facing Washington, owner of the second-worst record in the East. They then open a five-game homestand tomorrow against Minnesota - the worst team in the West - before hosting these same Wizards, plus games against Toronto and Philadelphia, both of which are struggling.
This is a blowout!
1♦ BOBCATS
Joel Tyson
18-10 comp play run the last 28 days, as Appalachian State banks on Monday.
Have to take the points with the Pacers as they visit the Pistons.
Indiana has won and covered all 3 this season against Detroit, and they have now won and covered the last 5 in this series overall.
Detroit has lost their last 5 both straight up, and against the spread, and that does include a loss to the Pacers in that span.
Just business as usual in this series, take the Pacers!
3♦ INDIANA
Jeff Benton
Got another free-play winner with the Chicago Bulls (5♦) on Monday. So I’m now on runs of 42-22-2, 32-16-2 and 23-12-2 with plays that I’m giving away, including hitting the last three in a row! For Tuesday, I’ll stay in the NBA and take the Pacers plus the points at the Pistons.
Not much question about which of these teams is playing better basketball. Indiana has won two in a row (including a 20-point win over the Thunder on Sunday preceded by a four-point victory over these Pistons), and it is 4-3 in its last seven games. Of those three losses, two were close defeats on the road against playoff contenders (99-94 at Cleveland; 98-94 at Milwaukee). The Pacers easily covered the spread in those two losses, and they enter this game on an 8-1 ATS run, including five straight covers.
On the other hand, Detroit is in an 0-5 SU and ATS freefall. With the exception of the four-point loss at Indiana, the other four defeats were ugly (13 points at Atlanta; 26 points at Boston; 12 points at home vs. Cleveland; and 25 points at Cleveland). Going back a month to a 97-91 loss at the Clippers, the Pistons have two victories against 12 losses, and they’re 4-10 ATS during this 14-game slump. More ugly ATS numbers for Detroit: 7-21-1 last 29 Eastern Conference games; 17-38-1 last 56 against Central Division rivals, 8-24-1 when coming off a double-digit loss, and 1-7 as a favorite of less than five points.
Finally, Friday’s result when these teams hooked up in Indiana wasn’t an aberration. The Pacers have won five straight in this rivalry, and they’re 7-0 ATS in the last seven going back to the start of LAST season. Take the points.
4♦ INDIANA PACERS