Rocketman
San Antonio @ Dallas
Play: San Antonio -3
The San Antonio Spurs travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks on Tuesday night. San Antonio is 44-25 SU overall this year while Dallas is 44-27 SU overall on the season. San Antonio is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in March while Dallas is 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS in March. Dallas is 5-14 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. San Antonio is scoring 110.4 points per game their past five games overall. Dallas is allowing 105.2 points per game their past five games overall. San Antonio is 13-4 SU overall vs Dallas the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on San Antonio tonight!
SPORTS WAGERS
VANCOUVER -½ +118 over Winnipeg
Regulation only. Give the Jets all the credit in the world for their unrivaled thirst to make the playoffs. Losing Dustin Byfuglien and Mathieu Perreault (perhaps the Jets most important player), has not slowed this team down in terms of victories and we can’t stress enough how impressive that is. The Jets have won five in a row and have not allowed more than two goals against in any of those games. However, that five-game win streak comes with plenty of concerns. First, goaltender Andrej Pavelec has caught fire and was the winning goalie in each of those last five victories. We all know that it’s just a hot streak and a breakdown by Pavelec is inevitable. Secondly, Winnipeg was outshot 40-22 by San Jose and won 5-2. They were outshot in Edmonton last night 34-24 and won 4-1. The Jets have managed a measly 24 shots on net or fewer in five of their past seven games. In other words, their luck recently has been off the charts. Now playing its third game in four days, tail end of back-to-backs and fifth game in seven days, Winnipeg is really up against it here in Vancouver. The Jets have been racking up the victories lately but as we’ve pointed out, it’s complete fool’s gold.
The Canucks have switched into a different gear recently. They overwhelmed the Kings in a 4-1 victory in Los Angeles on Saturday and followed that up with an impressive showing in Arizona on Sunday in a huge letdown spot. Letdown they did not, as they outshot the Coyotes 44-27 and spent most of the game in Arizona’s end. Vancouver has won four of five and has held five of their last seven opponents to a single goal. They have also fired away 44, 40, 40, 35 and 35 shots on net respectively over their last five games. Vancouver is back to playing their relentless pursuit of the puck style that served them so well in the first two months of the season. Furthermore, Eddie Lack is playing as well as any goaltender in the league. Playing its best hockey of the season in one of their biggest games of the season in what figures to be the nosiest building in the league tonight, the Canucks are playing at a level that is too good to pass up on here.
Florida +167 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. Tampa Bay is a monster. They have 10 players with 30 points or more and that number would be higher if Jonathan Drouin and Cecil Paquette played in more games. They can score in bunches and they’re a definite threat to win the Stanley Cup this year but here’s where it gets a little interesting. The Bolts have dropped nine of their past 10 games against the Bruins, a team they could potentially meet in the first round of the playoffs should the B’s get in. Florida is chasing the Bruins and Ottawa so we’re pretty sure that Tampa couldn’t care less if Ottawa or Florida got in as opposed to Boston. We’re not suggesting for a minute that the Lightning will tank for this game but psychologically or subconsciously, they may not bring as much intensity for this game. We also love that the Bolts have been at home for 11 days and four straight games. This is their fifth straight at home and we often see teams come up flat in the latter stages of an extended home-stand. In their four games during this stay, Tampa has outshot one opponent and against Boston and Winnipeg they managed just 16 and 19 shots on goal respectively.
The Panthers are the forgotten team in the East. All the talk is about Boston and Ottawa fighting for that last spot. The Panthers are definitely up against it in their quest to make the playoffs but they are certainly not out of it, as a win here pulls them within two points of the Bruins and within three of the Sens. Florida has won two in a row and four of its last six. Its two losses over that span were against Montreal, 3-2 and the Rangers, 2-1. The last time the Panthers lost by more than one goal was 11 games ago when they were defeated by Chicago, 3-0. The Panthers are without question the most undervalued team in the NHL. They are on the verge of becoming a powerhouse in this league, as they’re very similar to the Blackhawks from several years ago when Chicago was loading up on young talent. This is a team that should not be this big a dog against any team in the league because they’re very capable of defeating any team. To give you an idea how undervalued the Panthers are here consider that Colorado was this same price in Tampa recently and Dallas was a smaller price (line today opened at +180). Now we get true value on a dangerous squad that has a seriously legit shot of winning.
St. Louis +111 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. The Penguins have two wins in their past six games. Those two victories occurred against Arizona and Edmonton. The Pens have recent losses to New Jersey, Dallas, Colorado and San Jose among others. This is a top-heavy club that needs Evgeni Malkin and Patric Hornqvist in the lineup because their secondary scoring is brutal. To give you an idea of just how challenged this Pittsburgh offense is, Chris Kunitz has one goal in his last 22 games and he’s fourth on the team in goals scored. Take away Malkin and Hornqvist (looks almost certain that both will miss tonight) and Kunitz moves up to second on the team in goals scored with 16. The Penguins scored three times on the Coyotes in their last game. The third goal was an empty netter so call it two goals. Prior to that, Pittsburgh scored one goal or less in four straight. In fact, the Penguins have scored one goal or less in every game over their last eight with the exception of games against Arizona and Edmonton.
The Blue Notes conclude a difficult six game road trip here. They’ve dropped three straight in Winnipeg, Minnesota and Detroit but deserved better in Winnipeg and Detroit. In fact, they lost in Detroit Sunday to a broken stick, which is against the rules and should’ve been waived off. Regardless, the Blues are a formidable foe and usually a superior one against most teams in this league, which includes the Pens. The Blues have allowed 28 shots on net or fewer in eight of their past nine games. They are as strong defensively as any team and they’re as balanced offensively as anyone also. This is one game in which anything can happen but we’re in the business of finding value, playing it and letting the chips fall where they may. In that regard, the Blues offer up as much or more value than any team on today’s board because their win expectation is greater than Pittsburgh’s and they’re a puppy.
Montreal +125 over NASHVILLE
OT included. It’s not that the Predators are playing so terrible that has caused them to go into a tailspin the past five weeks, it’s that they’ve stopped scoring goals. Since February 19, Nashville has five wins in 16 games. In 12 of those 16 games the Preds scored two goals or less. For the first 4½ months of the year, Nashville was getting balanced scoring and now they’re getting production from just one line. Shutting down the Robeiro/Smith/Forsberg line is something every team is preparing for and for the most part they’re all succeeding. Nashville has not allowed an opponent more than 28 shots on net in nine straight games, which is extremely impressive but it does suggest that goaltender Pekka Rinne has been very beatable ever since he returned from injury. The Preds have three wins in their last 10 games and two of those victories occurred against Arizona and Buffalo. The other was a 1-0 victory over Los Angeles.
The Canadiens are almost always a playable dog because of you know who. Playing the Canadiens taking back a tag is not only prudent, it’s almost like taking a half puck plus juice because should the game go into OT or a shootout, Montreal’s chances of winning increase. Carey Price leads the NHL in shootout wins, he leads the NHL in save percentage at .938 and he leads the NHL in GAA at 1.86. Besides Price’s outstanding play, Montreal is heating up again with three straight wins and four wins in its last five games. The Habs’ only loss over that span came against Tampa Bay. Montreal has shutout its last two opponents and has allowed just two goals against over its last three games. Over that span the Canadiens have scored nine times. What also makes Montreal so appealing here is that we have a struggling Nashville offense up against the NHL’s best goaltender. Now Nashville has that in their heads too. What you’ll see from the Preds’ shooters here is an attempt to take the perfect shot against Price because in their minds, that’s what they think they’ll need to beat him. That is going to result in a lot of shots that go wide or up over the net, which is actually going to make Price’s job easier. Montreal with Price in goal taking back a tag over a struggling team is a bet we would make 100% of the time and we make no exception here.
John Ryan
Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons +2½
The simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will win this game. The current line has Detroit installed as a 2 1/2 point dog. Should this line move to 3 or higher, which I believe it will based on the early flows I am seeing, then a combination wager is validated. This wager would be comprised of an 8* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-22 mark using he money line good for 71% winners and has made 30.4 units/unit wagered since 2009. Play on home teams using the money line (DETROIT) after two or more consecutive 'overs', a good offensive team scoring between 98 and 102 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing between 98 and 102 PPG after 42+ games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toronto is just 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game over the last 3 seasons; 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. Take the Detroit Pistons.
Dave Price
Toronto Raptors -2
The Toronto Raptors (42-28) still have a lot to play for. They are currently the No. 3 seed in the East and do not want to fall any further. They come in playing well having won four of their last six games overall. The Detroit Pistons (26-44) have little to play for at this point. They are pretty much eliminate from playoff contention as they trail Boston by five games for the 8th spot in the East. They have been playing like they have had nothing to play for, going 3-11 in their last 14 games overall. Making matters worse is that they are without their best player in Greg Monroe, who is doubtful with a knee injury tonight. Toronto is 5-1 in its last six meetings with Detroit. The Pistons are 1-9 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to Detroit.
Jimmy Boyd
Sacramento Kings -8
In the Kings last two games they have knocked off Charlotte 101-91 and the Wizards 109-86. Not only are they getting it done offensively, but their effort defensively is what really stands out to me. That's not the sign of a team that's laying down with nothing left to play for in the final weeks. One of the big reasons for Sacramento's recent strong play is the decision to move Rudy Gay to power forward, which has really opened up things for the entire offense. Gay is averaging 27.6 ppg over his last 8 and I don't see a 76ers defense that is giving up 102.2 ppg on the road slowing him down.
The 76ers are one of the teams that you have to worry about not showing up at this point in the season and it's something they have done regularly on the road of late. Philadelphia has lost 15 straight on the road, including a 87-101 lost at the Lakers last time out. It was their 5th time in their last 6 road games they fell by double-digits. Added incentive here for the Kings is that Sacramento recently lost 107-114 at Philadelphia on 3/13.
76ers are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after a road loss by 10+ points and we see that favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite, off an upset win a home dog are 31-9 ATS since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Kings.
Will Rogers
St Louis Blues vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins -120
It is two struggling teams that will do battle tonight as the Pittsburgh Penguins are hosting the St. Louis Blues. The visitors opened a six game road trip with back-to-back wins but have since lost three straight. The Penguins had suffered four consecutive set-backs before prevailing 3-1 at Arizona Saturday. I think the home team will have both momentum and motivation on its side tonight, and I'm backing the Pens to take this one down.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Situational/Motivational - The Blues are despite their recent struggles still top dog of the Central Division, and are all but in the playoffs already. The Penguins on the other hand are fifth in the Eastern Conference, with the Bruins in ninth only six points back. The Penguins need those points way more than the Blues, and I expect it to show at the scoreboard.
2. Goaltending - The Blues star netminder Brian Elliott was lit up by the Wild his last time out and and the Blues will give Jake Allen a second straight start tonight. Allen will face the Pens for the first time i his career but is posting a rather swollen 2.54 GAA over 17 appearances away from home on the season. The Pens are likely to go with Marc-Andre Fleury who's been dominant all season long, and even more so over his last two games where he's stopped 54 of 57 shots.
3. X-Factor - The Penguins top scorer Evgeni Malkin could be back in the line-up for tonight's contest after sitting the last four out due to an upper-body injury.
Brandon Lee
Miami vs. Richmond
Play: Richmond -2½
The Spiders are showing some great value here as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against the Hurricanes, who aren't expected to have one of their top players in Angel Rodriguez (doubtful). Richmond is an impressive 16-3 SU at home, which adds to value with the short number here at home. Not to mention the Spiders are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games after 15+ games against teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game. Richmond is a difficult team to prepare for on short notice if you aren't familiar with their style of play, especially on the road.
Jack Jones
Richmond -2½
The Richmond Spiders (21-13) host the Miami Hurricanes (23-12) in the NIT Quarterfinals tonight. The winner of this game will be going to Madison Square Garden for the semifinals, which is obviously an experience that both teams want to have.
I look for the Spiders to get it done at home. They have protected their home court very well all season. Indeed, they are 16-3 at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.3 points per game. They shoot 47.1% at home and allow just 40.7% shooting.
I haven't been all that impressed with Miami in its first two games of the NIT. It barely beat lowly NC Central 75-71 as 8.5-point favorites before topping a weak Alabama team 73-66 last round. Richmond beat St. Francis-NY 84-74 as 10-point favorites and then Arizona State 76-70 as 4.5-point favorites.
I would argue that the Spiders belong in the NCAA Tournament just by the way they finished the season, and they are proving that in the NIT. They are now 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. They beat St. Bonaventure by 15 on the road, George Washington by 8 at home, VCU by 4 at home, and they also topped both St. Joseph's and UMass on the road.
The Spiders are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win. Richmond is 10-2-2 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Spiders are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
John Martin
Dallas Mavericks +4
Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Dallas Mavericks as home underdogs. I'll take advantage and back them tonight against the San Antonio Spurs. The Mavs will be motivated off two straight losses as they now trail the Spurs by one game for the 6th spot in the West, and they still have their sights set on home-court advantage in the first round. The Spurs come in overvalued due to having gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, including a huge win at Atlanta last time out. Dallas is a perfect 10-0 ATS after tailing in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last three seasons.
Larry Ness
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are hoping that Tony Parker is finding his form with the playoffs ?just around the corner? (begin April 18). Parker came into the season with 1,136 regular-season and playoff games to his name, third most in the league since he entered it in 2001-02, trailing teammate Tim Duncan and Derek Fisher. He averaged 17.1 points in the regular season prior to 2014-15, but is averaging 14.9 points in 2014-15, his lowest mark since scoring 14.7 in 2003-04. However, Parker has shot 58.5 percent and averaged 19.9 points over his last 10 games, while the Spurs (44-25) have won 10 of 12 to pull within one game of the fifth-place Clippers.The Spurs visit Dallas tonight, to take on the hated Mavs.
The Mavericks (44-27) trail the Spurs by one game and coach Rick Carlisle called the team's performance an "embarrassment" in a 98-92 loss at Phoenix on Sunday. Dallas blew a six-point lead with less than five minutes remaining after rallying from a 17-point deficit. Monta Ellis (19.0-4.2 APG) was 4 for 22 and has gone 7 for 31 in his last two games. The Mavericks have a difficult time winning when Ellis is inefficient, going 8-16 when he shoots worse than 40.0 percent. "Hey, he had a bad shooting night," Carlisle said. "That's the way it goes. But if we show up in the first half and play like we're capable, we're not talking about a bad shooting night. We're probably winning the game and doing what we're supposed to do. This is not a Monta Ellis problem. This is a Dallas Mavericks hard-play problem. We don't play hard all the time, that's the problem."
Ellis could be poised to bounce back as he's averaged 25.6 points in his last 17 matchups with the Spurs. He's scored 64 points and shot 59.1 percent in two meetings this season. ?We?re not playing up to our ability right now,? forward Chandler Parsons (15.6-4.8) told reporters. ?There?s ups and downs in a season, so we can?t get too low right now. Everyone tends to do that when we have a loss, but we still control our own destiny.? The Mavericks? next seven games are against teams fighting for playoff spots, with the lone sub-.500 opponent in that span at Indiana on Sunday. Dirk (17.3-5.9) is still a quality player and the return of Tyson Chandler (10.2-11.4) is surely a plus but neither Rondo nor Stoudemire (in-season acquisitions) have done much towards Dallas ?taking that next step!?
Rondo (9.3-4.5-6.4 in 36 games) has clashed with head coach Carlisle and Stoudemire (10.1 PPG in 13 games) is nothing more than an average part-time player these days. Dallas bridged February and March with a stretch of five losses in seven games but appeared to be pulling out of the funk with an impressive three-game winning streak before falling flat again over the weekend, with losses to Memphis (at home on Friday) and at Phoenix (Sunday).
Returning to San Antonio, Parker isn't the only Spur playing well. Kawhi Leonard (15.9-7.4) has averaged 20.0 points in his last 11 games and Tiago Splitter has scored 41 over the past two. The contributions have been key with Manu Ginobili (11.4-3.0-4.1) missing the last four games with a sprained ankle. "We've just played together for a long time," said Splitter, who scored a season-high 23 in a 114-95 win at Atlanta on Sunday. "We haven't made many changes in our team. Just good guys, good players that know each other and try to do their best." Duncan (14.1-9.3) and Green (12.1-4.6) make it FIVE spurs scoring in double digits and then there is that San Antonio depth, with SIX more players averaging between 6.2 and 9.5 PPG.
Parker has victimized Dallas, averaging 22.8 points and 56.3 percent shooting while winning his last SIX matchups. He hit the winning three-pointer with 1:07 left and scored 23 in a 101-100 home victory over the Mavericks way back on Oct 28 but he didn't play in a 99-93 road loss to them Dec 20. All of a sudden, the Spurs have a chance to reach as high as a 3 or 4 seed in the West, so watch out for this veteran team down the stretch.
Nick Parsons
San Antonio vs. Dallas
Pick: San Antonio
The San Antonio Spurs have won five of their last seven and look to continue their winningg ways against their in state rival Dallas. The Spurs offense is led by Kawhi Leonard with 15.9 points and 7.4 rebounds a game. Tim Duncan adds 14.1 points and 9.3 rebounds. As a team, the Spurs put up 102.5 points on 46.2 percent shooting on the offensive end, while conversely the ate allowing 97.8 points on 44.5 percent shooting from the defensive end. The Spurs offense has scored 100 points in 12 straight games. The Spurs have won four of their last five road games.
The Dallas Mavericks have been treading water latterly going 5-5 in their last 10 games. Dallas is putting up 104.6 points on the offensive end, while shooting 46 percent from the floor. Their opponents have averaged 101.1 points a game on Dallas, while shooting 44.9. Dallas gets their offensive production from Monta Ellis with 19 points and 4.2 assists while Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 17.3 points and 5.9 rebounds. Tyson Chandler defends the painted area and cleans the boards, grabbing 11.4 rebounds per contest. Dallas has allowed 100-plus points in five of their last eight games. The Mavs have won seven of their last 10 home games. J J Barea is questionable with an ankle injury.
The Spurs have started to look like they are getting into playoff mode and Dallas still hasn’t been able to put things together consistently since Rondo has joined the team. In a close rivalry game I am going with the team that is in better form at the moment.
Goodfella
Golden State -3.5 1st Half
Portland missing several key players tonight (including easily their most important piece (in LaMarcus, listed doubtful, but IMO he does not play). In the event he is a late add to play, I still like this 1st half play. Here is the latest INFO on players who are all probably out for Portland tonight (of course we all know that Mathews is out for the season as well---his absence is VASTLY under-rated by most-- & it has really started to show, too).
Aldridge, Batum and Kaman are all doubtful for tomorrow vs. golden state.
Golden St. smashed Washington last night & their starters did not play long minutes. I look for Golden St. to come out fast and get off to a great start and have a nice 6-8 point lead at half-time.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Golden State/ Portland Under 207: This is the 2nd of BB nights for the Warriors and they have been playing at a bit slower pace on those games. The Warriors are very average in terms of points allowed, but they do play excellent defense as they are 1st in the league in defensive FG% The Blazers have been a good offensive team this year, but they are off a long road trip and may come back a bit sluggish here. We also note that this team plays excellent defense at home, allowed just 93.7 ppg at the Moda Center this year. Hard to see this one being that high scoring at all.
Andy Isoke
Stanford -4
Vandy is making it's 2nd trip west in a week and they will be taking on a Stanford team that has lost 3 home games all year, with all three losses coming to teams that won their first games in the NCAA Tournament (Oregon, UCLA & Arizona) and two of those teams moving on to the Sweet 16. Each of their home wins this year have been by 6 or more, with a bunch being by DD. Take Stanford here over a shorthanded Vandy team.
Kelso
Miami Heat -1
Milwaukee is 4-13 since trading away standout point guard Brandon Knight to Phoenix and acquiring Michael Carter-Williams from Philadelphia last month. Carter-Williams actually had a decent effort in the loss to Cleveland with a team-high 19 points on 9-of-14 shooting, but he also contributed six of the Bucks'' 23 turnovers. No Milwaukee reserve had more than four points as the club continued to play thin without Jared Dudley (back) and O.J. Mayo (hamstring), both of whom are considered questionable for Tuesday.