Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday March, 27

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

The knee jerk reaction would be to back the Lakers off their upset loss at home to the Grizzlies Sunday night, but we're not about to knee jerk to anything until we check in with our powerful database first. Lo and behold, after scanning the numbers we find the Lakers are just 6-22-1 ATS in this series when playing off a loss, including 0-5 ATS the last five and 1-10-1 ATS when the Warriors are also playing off a defeat. With the Warriors 10-6 ATS as dogs in games off a loss this season, instead we'll gladly fade the Lakers and their 8-16-1 ATS road mark under Mike Brown this season - including 0-5 ATS as road chalk of five or more points - here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Golden State.

Rob Vinciletti

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5

OKC fits a solid system here tonight. We want to play against home dogs like Portland with rest off a home favored win by 4 or less points vs an opponent like OKC that won and covered as a home favorite in their last game. These home dogs have failed miserable to the spread going 6-26 since 1995. The Thunder have covered 5 of 6 off 3+ home games and are 20-4 vs losing teams the only thing that keeps me off them for the late phones is their frame of mind off a satisfying win over Miami. The Blazers have failed to cover 5 of 7 at home when the total is 195 to 200 and have dropped the last two to OKC. Look for the Thunder to pull away late in this one.

David Chan

Predators @ Blues
PICK: Under 5

The 44-24-8 Nashville Predators roar into St. Louis to take on the 47-20-9 Blues.

Pekka Rinne is scheduled to start opposite Brian Elliot between the pipes.

The Blues are one of the toughest home teams in the entire league, but the Predators have won both meetings in St. Louis by a combined score of 6-3:

“(St. Louis is) a good team,” said Rinne. “It’s one of those teams, we’re going to battle to the end. We always seem to play well against this team.”

Rinne has been key in his team's success, going 4-0-1 with a 1.33 GAA vs. St. Louis this year.

Nashville is coming off a big 6-1 road win over the Blackhawks on Sunday.

Despite the offensive outburst, Rinne is adamant that his team has to concentrate on the other end of the ice:

“It doesn’t matter who we have in the lineup and how many offensive guys we have,” Rinne said. “We have to be solid defensively and work hard and keep it simple and the offensive part of the game is going to come.

Elliot is coming off his second straight shutout in Sunday's 4-0 win at Phoenix.

Divisional contests are always the toughest, and that's doubly so at this time of year.

This one will take on a "playoff atmosphere", and as a result, I'm expecting a hard-hitting, low-scoring affair!

Matt Fargo

Oklahoma City @ Portland
PICK: Oklahoma City -4.5

Portland is coming off a rare win as it defeated Golden St. at home on Sunday but it was far from easy as it won by just three points. It was the Blazers 12th win in their last 31 game as a season of promise has completely gone the other way as they have played themselves right out of the postseason. Portland has not won back-to-back games since late January as it has gone 0-12 straight up and 2-10 ATS following its last 12 wins and hosting one of the best teams in the league is not going to turn that around.

The Thunder defeated Miami on Sunday, handing the Heat their worst loss of the season as they continue to build momentum heading into the postseason. They have a three-game lead over San Antonio for first place in the Western Conference and while it is a good lead, it was more than that a couple weeks ago and it is getting a little shorter than they prefer. Oklahoma City is 15-8 on the road which is the best road record in the Western Conference and the second best in the NBA.

Oklahoma City has won three straight games and this has actually turned into a big game as it has a game at the Lakers in two nights followed by a home game against Chicago next Sunday so there is no need to go into those games coming off a loss. After losing the first game in this series at home, the Thunder have defeated the Blazers the last two meetings and being favored here is not a bad thing considering the Blazers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of fewer than five points.

The Thunder also falls into a great situation as we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points and coming off a home win by three points or less. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1996. Portland has not been a strong revenge team anyway as it is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points. The inability to win consecutive games continues for the Blazers.

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors
Pick: Golden State Warriors

The Lakers were terrible at home in losing their last game, but I don't necessarily see the quick bounce back here. This is still a Lakers team that has struggled on the road, and Golden State will treat this like their personal playoff game. Expect it to be close. I'll side with the Warriors plus the points.

Jim Feist

Lakers vs Warriors
Pick: Over

The Lakers have picked up the scoring and are better offensively with newcomer Ramon Sessions, on a 6-0 under over the total in the Lakers last 6 road games. The over is also 23-7 in Lakers last 30 vs. a team with a losing record. They take on a Golden State team that doesn't play any defense but they like to run, especially in front of the home fans at 6-1 over their last 7 home games. IN addition, the over is 26-12 in the last 38 meetings, plus 17-5 over the total in the last 22 meetings in Golden State. Play the Lakers/Warriors over the total.

Red Dog Sports

UConn vs. Kentucky
Play: Under 135

Kentucky's game was at 141 with Gonzaga but the games before that were at 127, 130, 133, 138, 116, 103, 131. Their game with Tennessee was 131 but they did play a 175 point game with Notre Dame. UConn just played a 136 point game with Penn State. PSU admitted they shot too quickly as the game was 20-5 after about 5 minutes but ended up near the number. UConn's 11 games before that reached 83 to 131 points. Take under 135

JR O'Donnell

UMass +2.5

UMASS (25-11, 19-13 ATS & 9-8-1 ATS away) faces the Stanford Cardinal (24-11, 17-15 ATS & 5-7 ATS away) at 7 PM EST in the Garden. UMASS is 6-1 SU in their last "7", and have quality wins over Utah, Davidson, St Joes, ST Louis, ST Bonaventure, Xavier & Temple, all but one a NCAA tourney team. Stanford counters with wins over NC ST (early), Utah (also a loss later), Colorado and California of which three are tournament teams. UMASS has won all three games on the road against higher seeds who were supposed to be much stronger, in Mississippi State, Seton Hall & Drexel, teams that were on the NCAA bubble to the last game. Confidence is high!

SPORTS WAGERS

Carolina +103 over TORONTO

The Maple Leafs picked up three out of a possible four points against New Jersey and the New York Rangers in their last two games but don’t be fooled by that. Against the Devils, the Leafs were outshot 46-17 and the entire game was played in their own end. They played a bit better at home on Saturday night in that 4-3 OT loss but in reality, they were fortunate to pick up anything, let alone three points. Now the equation becomes a simple one that says when the Maple Leafs are favored, fade them, as they offer up nothing as the chalk. The Hurricanes are coming off back-to-back losses to Detroit and Columbus but prior to that they had won four straight including a 2-0 win over the Blues. Carolina is healthy, they have a significant edge in net with Cam Ward and they’re in decent form despite losing its last two. The ’Canes always get up for games in Toronto, as six players on the club are from Ontario including Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner. The Maple Leafs remain extremely vulnerable with shaky goaltending, a fragile state of mind and injuries to key personnel. Play: Carolina +103 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago/NEW JERSEY over 5½ +120

The potential for one or both of these teams to score five on their own is a real possibility. Both are loaded with offensive weapons and both have blatant goaltending issues. It’ll be Corey Crawford against Martin Brodeur. Brodeur has allowed nine goals against in his past two starts against the Maple Leafs and Penguins on 45 shots. Eight days ago against the Rangers he allowed another four goals on 27 shots (.852 save %). This situation has not been addressed and reputation doesn’t stop pucks. Then there’s Corey Crawford. Management has such little confidence in him that they tried to make Ray Emery the #1 goaltender but that didn’t last long. When Chicago was losing nine games in a row it was mostly due to a lack of reliable goaltending. Now Crawford is coming off a 6-1 loss to Nashville in which he was yanked after allowing four goals on 15 shots. His mental state is fragile and now his confidence is too. Expect plenty of scoring chances from these creative clubs and with the distinct possibility of a couple of soft goals, what we really have here is a beatable total with some real value. Play: Chicago/New Jersey over 5½ +120 (Risking 2 units).

Buffalo +100 over WASHINGTON

This is the game of the night, as these two are tied for the eighth and final playoff spot and the winner here puts themselves in a much better position than the loser. In a contest with so much at stake, give us the better team in better form without having to lay anything. Buffalo has won four in a row and has outscored the opposition over that span 17-5. The Sabres have picked up points in an incredible 17 of their past 19 games and have allowed two goals against in their past three games. Meanwhile, the Caps have picked up points in four straight but have just two wins over their past six. They were badly outplayed by Winnipeg in a huge game at the time and blew a 3-0 lead before losing in OT. Another one of those two wins came against Minnesota. After the first two weeks of the season in which Washington jumped out to a 7-0 start, they’ve been laboring along ever since and certainly don’t offer up the best of it here. Play: Buffalo +100 (Risking 2 units).

Nashville +137 over ST. LOUIS

The Blues want to finish first overall and secure home ice throughout and they’re in a position to do so. They’re two points ahead of the Canucks for that distinction and both teams have six games left. The Blue Notes have proven to be tough as shoe leather and anytime they lose it’s a bit of a surprise. Having said that, the Predators are too good to ignore a tag like this one and they couldn’t have handpicked a more favorable time to face the Blues in St. Louis. The Blue Notes return home from a grueling, season-long seven-game trip that took them through three time zones and ended on the west coast with games in Anaheim, L.A. and Phoenix. They went 3-4 on said trip with only wins coming against Columbus, Tampa Bay and Phoenix playing its third game in four days. The Blue Notes come home a little worse for the wear and if there was ever a time to send a message that, “you’re going to have to go through us to get to the promised land”, this would be the time to do so. The Preds are coming off back-to-back wins over Winnipeg and Chicago and outscored that pair 9-2. Play: Nashville +137 (Risking 2 units).

WUNDERDOG

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -1.5

The Pittsburgh Penguins are the hottest team in the NHL for nearly a half of a season, running at 26-7 in their last 33 games. Their last six wins have come by a staggering total of 17 goals, making this team a logical choice on the puckline at what amounts to be conventional odds. They have been all but invincible at home where they are 10-0 in their last 10 games, outscoring their opponent 44-16 or winning by an average of 2.8 goals per contest. The Islanders are 44-107 in their last 151 road games, and certainly aren't a likely candidate to stop the hot Penguins. Play this one on Pittsburgh on the puckline.

David Banks

Phoenix Suns +2

The Phoenix Suns (25-24, 26-23 ATS) return home to the desert to battle the San Antonio Spurs (33-14, 28-18-1 ATS) on Tuesday night looking to continue the recent hot play thats catapulted them back into the Western Conference playoff race; tip-off from the US Airways Center is set to go at 10:00 ET.

While the Thunders gotten all the regular season accolades after becoming the first team in the West to win 35+ games, the Spurs have quietly taken care of their business and currently sit just three-games back of #1 seeded Oklahoma City. Theyll enter tonights showdown off a much needed full day of rest after Head Coach Gregg Popovichs troops handled their three-game in three-day stretch masterfully. They let it be known that they are the team to beat in the Southwest Division after handing the defending champion Dallas Mavericks a 104-87 beatdown (-4) on Friday, and then followed it up with 89-86 and 93-76 wins against New Orleans and Philadelphia over the weekend. They covered two of those three games when it was said and done, and because of it, now stand 10-games over the breakeven point on the year against the closing pointspread. The Spurs have been decent away from the AT&T Center on the year compiling 13-10 SU & 11-11-1 ATS records.

What the heck has gotten into the Suns Gatorade? Whatever it is, Head Coach Alvin Gentry and his staff are loving it! After dropping the first two games of their four-game Eastern Conference road swing against Orlando and Miami, Steve Nash and his mates picked up a pair of wins at Indiana (113-111) and Cleveland (108-83) to split the roady overall; they covered three of the four clashes. In doing so, Phoenix moved to a moneymaking 12-3 ATS in their 15 games played since the All Star break. They went 11-4 SU during that stretch and now only find themselves just five-games out of first place in the Pacific Division and one-game in back of the Houston Rockets for the eighth and final playoff seed in the West. The Suns will return home before hitting the road the following night to battle the Clippers 15-10 SU & 14-11 ATS as a host on the year.

San Antonio won and covered these teams only meeting of the 2011-12 season (102-91). The triumph moved the home team to 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the L/4 overall meetings; the total split with the under cashing each of the L/2 times. The Spurs check in just 3-3 SU & ATS when favored by two or less points this season, but theyre also 11-2 ATS the L/13 times they played on one day of rest. The Suns have won outright each of the L/4 times they were dogged in front of the hometown faithful (Lakers, Clippers, Mavericks, Grizzlies) and check in a perfect 5-0 ATS the L/5 times they played after an off day, but are just 3-7 ATS the L/10 times they opposed a +.500 visitor. These teams have played to the over six of the L/7 times they squared off in the desert.

MATT RIVERS

The Bucks are running out of time in their pursuit of the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, and last night's loss in New York certainly did not help their cause.

I will look for Milwaukee to bounce-back tonight on their home hardwood against an Atlanta team that is playing their 4th game in five nights tonight.

Atlanta has won their last four games, but they do have a pretty big meeting tomorrow night at home against the top team in the East, the Chicago Bulls. Look for the Hawks focus to be a little off tonight, and look for Milwaukee to get a much-needed "W" this evening.

The Bucks have lost three straight to the Hawks, tonight they end the skid with the win and cover.

3♦ MILWAUKEE

JEFF BENTON

Your Tuesday freebie is the Spurs to get the road win and cover at Phoenix.

San Antonio is sitting solidly in the second playoff spot in the West, but there is a chance they can catch the Thunder for the overall top spot if they continue their winning ways.

Phoenix is making a run at the final playoff spot in the West with wins in six of their last eight games, but I don't feel they are getting enough of a cushion tonight to make me want to back them.

The Spurs are on quite a roll themselves, as San Antonio has picked up the win in four in a row, and seven of their last eight games overall. San Antonio did win and cover the lone meeting this season between the teams, and they have won four of the last five regular season meetings with the Suns, garnering the cover in three of those five games.

Tim Duncan did not play on Sunday, as Coach Popovich decided to give the aging Duncan some down time as the Spurs get ready for the grueling postseason. Obviously if Duncan sits again the win will be a little tougher to come by for the Spurs, but I still think San Antonio will find a way to win this game and keep their #2 seed well protected.

Play San Antonio.

2♦ SAN ANTONIO

Free NBA Release for 3/27: Phoenix Suns +2 (-110, JustBet) over the San Antonio Spurs. The Suns are showing excellent value as a home dog to the Spurs tonight. Phoenix actually has a better home record than the Spurs have on the road. And the Suns have been one of the best money teams over the last couple of weeks, going 7-1 at the window. The Spurs are coming off of a dominating performance against the 76ers at home, where they've played 10 of their last 13 games. But that will most likely set the stage for an upset tonight in Phoenix, where they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six trips. San Antonio's point diferrential on the road is actually -1.7/game despite the winning record. Comparing their road statistics to the Suns home statistics, we find that they slightly underperform Phoenix in points, shooting, FT shooting, defense, and rebounding. Looks to us like the wrong team is favored here. Phoenix is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home dog getting 0.5-4.5 points. San Antonio is 2-7 at the window in their last 9 games on the road when laying 0.5-4.5 points, and just 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings with the Phoenix Suns. We'll gladly side with the home "dog" in Phoenix tonight. *Our free plays are 188-107-2 all-time. Sign up today at iseewinners.com to receive all of our free releases via email.