Rocketman
LA Lakers @ Golden State
Play On: LA Lakers -6
LA Lakers is 30-19 overall on the season while Golden State comes in with a 20-27 overall record this year. LA Lakers are 107-68 ATS since 1996 after 3 or more consecutive overs. LA Lakers are scoring 102.2 points per game over their past five games. Golden State is allowing 100.4 points per game at home this year. LA Lakers have won 49 of the past 60 meetings SU with Golden State and laying this number tonight won't matter. Lakers have covered four of their past five road games. Lakers are 8-3 ATS last 11 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Golden State is 2-6 ATS last 8 games as a home underdog. LA Lakers have no listed injuries at this time while Golden State has several. Out for Golden State is Andrew Bogut, who hasn't played a game for the Warriors yet and appears to be out for the year. Stephen Curry is the 2nd leading scorer on this Golden State team at 14.7 points per game and the leader in assists with 5.3 assists per game. Also, Nate Robinson (10.5 points per game) is listed as questionable for tonight and Andris Biedrins is listed as doubtful. Biedrins averages almost 16 minutes a game and has played in 38 games this season and although his numbers aren't outstanding he does give them an extra body and creates a presence on the court and will be missed. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Lakers tonight!
OC Dooley
Oklahoma City Thunder -5
The key to this pick surrounds the fact that Oklahoma City is in the midst of a brutal stretch of games which means tonight they get a much deserved breather. After this evening Oklahoma City has a pair of marquee opponents on the docket (Lakers, Bulls) which will be followed up by three more squads (Grizzlies, Heat, Pacers) who will be participating in the postseason. The Thunder are coming off a resounding victory against Miami and the offense as an entity (122 points per game the last three outings) is operating at peak efficiency. Here is a 74-PERCENT SYSTEM (39-14 since 1996 with a money line between 3'-and-9' points) which actually plays AGAINST home underdogs like Portland "revenging" a loss where an opponent scored 100+ points, when off a very close home victory margin of 3-or-less points. To make matters worse for the entire season to date the Blazers have been a disaster (2-13 ATS) when up against a solid opponent who hits on average at least 76% of their free-throws. In the past three years Portland is a horrible 2-13 ATS when "revenging" a loss where an opponet put at least 110 points on the scoreboard against their defense
NHL Predictions
Lightning / Bruins Over 5.5
Tampa Bay is starting Sebastien Caron in net tonight for his first NHL appearance since the 2006-2007 season when he appeared in a game for the Ducks. Caron has spent time in the Deutschen Eishockey Liga (DEL) league this season where he has 49 games played with a 2.57 GAA. Last season in the KHL he played 12 games and had a 3.66 GAA and .867 SV %. In his last real stint in the NHL Caron played 26 games with the Penguins in 2005-2006 and had a 3.98 GAA and .881 SV%. The Lightning are averaging 3.61 goals against per game on the road, and I don't see that getting much better tonight with Caron in net and facing the Bruins. Boston is averaging 3.19 goals per game at home this season and have scored 3 or more in 4 of their last 5 games (which includes putting up 8 in their last home game). Also note that the Lightning are averaging almost 3 goals per game (2.90) over their last 10, while the Bruins are giving up an average of 3 goals per game over their last 10. The OVER is 6-1 in the Lightning's last 7 road games, and 35-17 in their last 52 overall. The OVER is 6-2-1 in the Bruins last 9 overall and 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take the OVER tonight.
Jack Jones
Phoenix Suns +1.5
The Phoenix Suns are showing solid value as a home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Phoenix has been playing very well for over a month now, and they're ready to knock off a team like San Antonio.
The Spurs are a bit banged up coming into this one, while the Suns are basically at full strength. Tiago Splitter is doubtful with a back injury, and Tim Duncan is listed as questionable due to possible rest. Duncan sat out their last game against Philadelphia.
Phoenix is 13-5 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Their last two losses came on the road at Miami and at Orlando, which are two of the best teams in the league. The Suns have won eight of their last nine at home. The Spurs are actually getting outscored on the road this season.
Phoenix is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the Spurs. Bet Phoenix Tuesday.
Bryan Power
Nashville Predators @ St. Louis Blues
PICK: St. Louis Blues
This is yet another matchup in the stacked Central Division where the first place Blues remain in position to garner the President's Trophy for the first time in more than a decade. They can't really afford a loss, however. Not only do they lead surging Vancouver by only two points for home ice in the conference, but they have both Detroit and Nashville breathing down their backs in the division. (In the East, both the Rangers and Penguins are in contention for best overall record). Therefore, expect the Blues to get the two points at home tonight. This is a dominant team on home ice, going 29-8 for the season, including 15-3 last 18. No team allows fewer goals per game than St. Louis at 1.8. They shut out Phoenix on the road on Sunday and are getting the Preds in a letdown spot after they beat Chicago 6-1 on the road. Tough stretch for Nashville here with a road game at Detroit looming, which could be for home ice in a potential first round playoff series.
Jeff Alexander
Dallas Mavericks -7.5
The Rockets are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Look for their road struggles to continue against a Dallas squad that is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Dallas has won 5 in a row against Houston and will be the much fresher team tonight as it has had 2 days' rest and the Rockets will be playing without a day of rest. The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take the Mavs.
Black Widow
Oklahoma City Thunder -5
The Oklahoma City Thunder own the best record in the Western Conference. OKC is trying to fend off San Antonio for the top seed in the West, so don't expect them to let off the gas any time soon. Portland's wheels have fallen off over the last few weeks, and they just cannot seem to put them back on. The Blazers are 5-10 SU & 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games overall, losing all ten times by 7 points or more, and eight of ten by 12 or more. Portland is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The Blazers are 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Portland is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. The Blazers are without starting PG Raymond Felton tonight due to personal reasons, leaving them very thin at the position to guard Russell Westbrook. Take the Thunder and lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5
Sitting a few games out of postseason position and hungry to snap a six-game losing streak in the series, expect the T-Wolves to show up in a big way this evening.
Minnesota has lost the season's first two meetings by 4 and 5 points respectively, and I expect it to play the Grizzlies even tougher tonight.
Minnesota is 21-9 ATS as an underdog this season and 15-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points on the season. It is also 16-7 ATS when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses to an opponent) this season.
The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record. We'll take the points.
Steve Janus
Cleveland Cavaliers +9
This is a prime spot to jump on the Cavaliers. It was just recently announced that Andre Iguodala is expected to miss tonight's game with tendinitis in his knee. Iguodala is a huge part of why Philadelphia is as good as they are. Without him they should not be laying 9-points against the Cavaliers. In Philadelphia's last game without Iguodala, they lost 76-93 at San Antonio.
Cleveland comes in having lost three straight and six of their last seven. This is usually when a mediocre team rallies together to really try and win a game. This will be just the second game in the last four days for the Cavaliers. Look for those fresh legs to come in handy against the 76ers.
The Cavaliers have really been undervalued on the road lately, which is why they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games! Philadelphia is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Larry Ness
LA Lakers -6
Kobe scored only two 4th-quarter points in LA's 102-96 Sunday night loss to Memphis and was benched for nearly four minutes by coach Mike Brown before being reinserted into the contest. Kobe (28.3-5.5-4.7) finished with only 18 points and attempted to avoid controversy afterward. "If you guys are looking for a story, I'm not going to give it to you," Bryant said. "I can't sit here and criticize his decisions." Bryant is in a slump, having scored 18 or fewer points in THREE of the past five games and is only 6-of-26 from three-point range during his slump. He's averaging 22.0 points on 37.1 percent shooting in the last five games, compared to 28.3 PPG on the season and 30.9 points in the previous 10. All this means little tonight with the Lakers in Oakland to take on the Warriors. Golden State (20-27) has dropped SIX of eight, averaging 92.7 PPG in those defeats. Ellis (21.9 PPG this year, after 25.5 & 24.1 the last two seasons) is now in Milwaukee, Curry (14.7-3.4-5.3) is sidelined with an ankle injury (AGAIN) and Nate Robinson (10.5-4.1 APG) remains questionable with a hamstring injury. This Golden St team is in trouble. Yes there is always David Lee (19.2-9.8) and rookie Klay Thompson (10.2) has averaged 18,.1 PPG over his last 13 games. However, after a career year in which he averaged 16.4 PPG last season, Wright is averaging 9.8 PPG and Jefferson (11.8-4.0), acquired from San Antonio, is clearly no longer the player he was back in New Jersey with Jason Kidd (something SA learned these last couple of seasons). LA's problem all season is too much Kobe, Bynum (18.3-12.3) and Gasol (16.8-10.4) and not enough of anyone else. The team's PG issue has been addressed, as Fisher was averaging 5.9 PPG (shooting 38.3%, including 32.4% on threes) and backup Blake 5.0 PPG (36.0% shooting, including 31.5% on threes). Getting Sessions, who has averaged 14.3 PPG on 55.1% shooting (53.8% on threes), was an excellent upgrade. He's averaged 19.0 PPG in his two starts, while also adding 8.0 APG. All that and he can actually guard someone as well. However, Sessions' addition hasn't seen the Lakers play better (meaning win more!). However, it should by year's end but we'll have to wait and see if LA can make a run at the NBA Finals. A for this game, look for LA to put Sunday's loss behind them vs the overmatched Warriors, who they've beaten 13 of the last 14 meetings. Lay it!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Cleveland Under 185.5: Must i really agree with the sharps on this one? Actually this play does make sense. the Sixers are 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 vs the Central division and 8-19 UNDER in their home games this year. As Marco pointed out in the First Look, the Sixers are 17-4 UNDER off a loss this year and have allowed just 83.1 ppg in those games, while holding their opponents to 85 points or less in 13 of those games. At home the Sixers have played low scoring games as their home games have averaged just 177.5 ppg and hey have held their opponents just just 84.1 ppg in those games, including just 79.8 ppg when they are off a loss. The team really plays great defense overall, but it seem like they play much better off a loss. Tonight that defense should continue as they take on a Cavs team that comes in scoring just 89.2 ppg (Reg) in their last 5 games. The Cavs have allowed 99.5 ppg on the road, but the Sixers average just 93.4 ppg at home, while in their last 6 games overall they have put up just 86.2 ppg. Two inept offenses and a team that plays great defense and low scoring games at home should add up to a game in the 170's here.
Dallas/ Houston Over 193.5: The Mavs have been playing good offense and little defense of late as they have averaged 97.9 ppg in their last 9 games, while allowing 101.4 ppg over the same stretch. The Mavs have allowed just 92.3 ppg at home, but in their ;last 4 at home they have allowed 100.5 ppg, with all 4 games going OVER the total. Houston likes to play at a faster pace and they have averaged 99 ppg (Regulation) in their last 4 games, while they have averaged the same amount in their last 6 games on the road. Houston has played great defense at home (93 ppg), but on the road they have allowed 101.3 ppg and that should really help this Dallas offense to score plenty of points here. Both teams have been playing little defense of late, while both teams have been scoring pretty well of late. This one should hit 200.
2 UNIT PLAY
MILWAUKEE-2 over Atlanta: Milwaukee has not played great ball at home this year as they are just 11-11 on their home floor, but I really expect them to come out and play a good game here. The Bucks are fighting for a playoff spot and they need to bounce back after last night's tough loss in NY, plus they do have some revenge for an earlier home loss to the Hawks at the beginning of this month. Atlants is pretty much in the Postseason and they are off a 4OT game with the Bulls on deck. Flat spot here for the Hawks and tey will fall to a more motivated Bucks squad here.
1 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma City/ Portland Over 198: The Trailblazers have been running at home, where they have scored 102 ppg, while their defense has been bad of late, as they have allowed 102.8 ppg in their last 7 games. The Thunder can score plenty as they have averaged 99.3 ppg on the road and 103.6 ppg overall, while in their last 9 games (regulation) they have averaged 107.4 ppg. Shuold be a high scoring one in Portland tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Washington -1 over Minnesota: Google News Play. This Washington team is playing with much heart and determination right now after being snubbed by the NCAA Committee. Washington did play 3 home games to get here, but they did take on tough Northwestern and Oregon squads in their last 2 games so they were tested some. The Huskies have been great offensively as they have averaged 82.7 ppg in the NIT so far and they have been led by Terrence Ross and Tony Wroten, who have made this team an exciting watch.Ross has dominated in the NIT, averaging 26.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game while Wroten showed as much as his colleague when he dropped 22 points and grabbed seven boards vs the Ducks. Minnesota has enjoyed a nice run in the NIT but the road ends here. Washington's roster is too talented and filled with players that can score seemingly at will. The Golden Gophers will be hard-pressed to keep up. Look for the Huskies to continue to play with a bit of an edge and a chip, considering their NCAA Tournament snub. Huskies march on here.
UMass +2.5 over Stanford: Stanford has the benefit of being the higher seed but that won't matter as the Cardinal have to travel to the East Coast to play against a team that will be within driving distance of its own campus. That should give the Minutemen a decided edge right there. UMass has played the last 5 on the road or on neutral courts and they are 4-1 SU & ATS in those games. UMass has also really been tested in this tourney with all three wins coming on the road vs teams (Drexel, Seton Hall & Mississippi State) that all had a chance to be in the Big Dance till the last week of the season. Stanford got here by playing all three games at home but the teams (Cleveland State, Illinois State & Nevada) they played were not of the caliber of the teams that UMass played. Although the Cardinal may be the more balanced team, the Minutemen's ability to score and the streak Williams has been on (at least 20 points in every round of the tournament, plus is also averaging 6.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game)may be too much for Stanford to overcome. Look for UMass to use a semi-homecourt advantage to move on here.
Washington/ Minnesota Over 143: The Huskies do score a tone as they have averaged 75.9 ppg overall and 83 ppg in their last 4 games, but they do play an uptempo style and that means that their defense will also give up a bunch of points. The Huskies have allowed 70.1 ppg overall, but in their 3 neutral games they have allowed 83.7 ppg, while in their last 5 overall they have given up 74.8 ppg. Minnesota has been on a bit of a scoring spree as they have averaged 75.3 ppg in their last 3 games, while in their 5 neutral games this year they have averaged 75.2 ppg, while in those 5 neutral games they have allowed 76.2 ppg. Minnesota has shot 50% in their last 5 games, while the Huskies have shot 47.3% over that same same stretch. This should also be a close game and neither team will want their season to end tonight, so you can expect lots of FT's at the end of this one. Still, I expect a fast paced game, so we may not even need the FT battle at the end of this one. This game should put over 150 points on the board.
2 UNIT PLAY
UMass/ Stanford Over 149.5: The Minutemen like to push tempo and they should be able to in this one, especially in front of what should be a huge pro-UMass crowd at MSG. Since putting up just 43 points vs Dayton, the Minutemen have now averaged 79.3 ppg (regulation only) in their last 8 games and while they have not shot all that great for the season they have hit 45.8 % of their shots overall in their last 5 games, including 36.8% from long range over that stretch. Stanford comes in averaging 71.7 ppg overall, but in their last 6 games (Regulation) their offense has taken off even more as they have averaged 78.2 ppg over that stretch. Because of the pacve they play at the Minutemen don't do much at the defensive end of the floor as they have allowed 72.4 ppg overall and 74.6 ppg away from home. Stanford has played good defense (63.5 ppg), but the have allowed 70 or more in 3 of their last 6 games and UMass is just too talented offensively to be held down here. Mid 150's with ease here.
Charlie Scott
Massachusetts vs. Stanford
Play: Under 149
Here's the Play I wrote up for Today's LVRJ Hot Corner : Bill Parcells is famous for this quote " You are What Your Record Say's You Are." For the most part, by the time March comes around, College Basketball teams are who their statistics say they are. Stanford's statistics say they are a Under 150 Total team ! Since Jan 12 Stanford has played 19 games, in 15 of those 19 the combined score was less than 150, 2 went Over 150, and 2 ended at exactly 150. Stanfords highest Total before Today's game was 143. In their last 6 games, Stanford has had an average Total of 131.5. Throw in that Stanford has gotten to the NIT Final 4 in Madison Square Garden by winning 3 Home NIT games ,now has to fly & Play across the Country with 6 days off, while their opponent U Mass has had 7 days off. I don't expect either Team to be sharp at the start of the game. PLAY UNDER this inflated total !