SPORTS ADVISORS
NIT
(at New York City)
Dayton (23-12, 16-15-1 ATS) vs. Ole Miss (24-10, 18-11-1 ATS)
The NIT Final Four kicks off at Madison Square Garden where Dayton shoots for its third straight victory away from home when it battles the Rebels.
The Flyers stumbled down the stretch in the Atlantic 10, losing six of their final nine games (1-7-1 ATS). However, they’ve taken advantage of a second season in the NIT, posting three impressive victories by an average of 14 points per game. After crushing Illinois State at home (63-42 as a seven-point favorite) in the opening round, Dayton went to nearby Cincinnati last Monday and rolled 81-66 as a three-point pup followed by Wednesday’s 77-71 upset win at Illinois, again as a three-point underdog.
Ole Miss needed double-overtime to outlast Texas Tech last Tuesday, winning 90-87 but falling way short as an nine-point home favorite. Including previous NIT blowout home wins over Troy (84-65) and Memphis (90-81), the Rebels arrive in the Big Apple having won seven of their last eight games (6-2 ATS). However, the one loss came in their most recent neutral-site contest, a 76-65 setback to Tennessee (as a 2½-point ‘dog) in the SEC tournament.
Despite the consecutive upsets of Cincinnati and Illinois, Dayton is still just 7-10 away from home this year (2-3 in neutral-site games). Ole Miss is 9-6 on the highway (3-2 at neutral venues). In their five neutral-site games, both the Flyers and Rebels are shooting 44.6 percent from the field and holding opponents to 42.2 percent. However, Ole Miss has outscored its five neutral-site opponents by 3.2 ppg (79.6-76.2) while Dayton has averaged 70.0 ppg and allowed 69.8.
The Flyers have now cashed in seven consecutive non-conference games, and they’re 4-1-1 ATS in their last six after a spread-cover. However, they’ve failed to cover in four straight at neutral sites and five of their last six on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is on pointspread upticks of 6-2 overall, 5-2 in non-league action and 14-6 after a non-cover.
Dayton has stayed under the total in seven of nine non-conference contests and four of five on Tuesday. However, the over is on runs of 5-1 for the Flyers overall, 5-1 for the Flyers after a SU win, 3-1-1 for Ole Miss at neutral sites and 10-2 for Ole Miss on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS and OVER
North Carolina (19-16, 12-21 ATS) vs. Rhode Island (26-9, 14-17-1 ATS)
One year after winning its fifth national championship, North Carolina is once again competing in a Final Four, only this time it’s the NIT as it takes on the upstart Rams.
After going just 5-12 in the ACC season – winning consecutive games just once – the Tar Heels have ripped off three straight NIT victories, all in narrow fashion. It started with an 80-72 victory over William & Mary, falling just short as a nine-point home favorite, followed by road upsets of Mississippi State (76-74 as a 7½-point underdog) and UAB (60-55 as a 4½-point pup). It’s the first time since the calendar flipped to 2010 that North Carolina has won three straight games, and the Heels haven’t had a four-game win streak since starting the season 4-0.
Rhode Island jumped out to a 19-3 start, then closed out the regular season by losing five of seven. However, since the Atlantic 10 tournament tipped off, the Rams are 5-1, alternating spread-covers in those six games. Rhode Island began the NIT with a pair of home wins over Northwestern (76-64 as a six-point favorite) and Nevada (85-83 as an 8½-point chalk), then went to Virginia Tech on Wednesday and knocked off the Hokies 79-72 as a 6½-point road underdog.
While the Tar Heels cashed in their two upset wins over Ole Miss and UAB to get to New York, they haven’t had three straight ATS wins all season. Additionally, they’re in pointspread slumps of 7-16 overall, 3-10 as an underdog, 1-8 as a pup of less than seven points, 3-8 after a SU win and 2-5 after a spread-cover. On the bright side, UNC has cashed in seven of 10 neutral-site outings, 45 of 64 non-conference games and five of seven on Tuesday.
The Rams have covered in four of five outside the Atlantic 10, but they’re in ATS funks of 7-12-1 overall, 3-10-1 after a SU win and 7-19-2 after a spread-cover.
Both squads have been involved in a plethora of low-scoring games recently. The Tar Heels are on “under” runs of 19-7 overall, 4-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a pup of less than seven points, 5-2 as a neutral-site pup, 5-1 on Tuesday, 6-1 after a SU win and 13-3 after an ATS setback. Meanwhile, Rhode Island carries “under” trends of 7-0 at neutral sites, 5-0 as a favorite at neutral sites, 4-1 when laying less than seven points anywhere and 11-5 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNAMENT
Pacific (23-11, 17-15 ATS) at Missouri State (23-12, 16-19 ATS)
Pacific tries to end it season with a seventh consecutive road victory when it travels to the Hammons Student Center in Springfield, Mo., to battle the Bears in the College Insider championship game.
The Tigers have won six of their last seven overall SU and ATS, and going back to Feb. 17 they’ve won and covered six straight road games. Pacific has been forced to hit the highway for all three games of this tournament, toppling Loyola Marymount (86-76 as a one-point chalk), Northern Colorado (63-59 as a two-point underdog) and Appalachian State (64-56 as a five-point pup). Throw in three Big West road wins over Long Beach State, Cal State Fullerton and Cal State Northridge, and the Tigers have won six in a row on the road by an average of 13.2 ppg.
Missouri State has won six of its last eight games, but is just 2-6 ATS during this stretch. The Bears have been at home since this tournament started, first knocking off Middle Tennessee State (87-79 as a nine-point chalk) and Louisiana Tech (69-40 as a 7½-point favorite). They reached the championship game by upending Missouri Valley Conference rival Creighton 67-61 Wednesday, coming up just shy as a 6½-point favorite.
The Tigers are now 12-6 (10-8 ATS) in true road games this year, outscoring opponents by 6.1 ppg (66.1-60) while shooting 46 percent from the field and holding opponents to 39.8 percent. Missouri State is 17-2 on its home floor, but just 10-9 ATS, averaging 73.4 ppg (45.8 percent shooting) and limiting visitors to 62.4 ppg (41.7 percent).
Pacific has cashed in six of seven overall, six straight on the highway, four straight as a ‘dog of less than seven points, six straight on the road against teams with a winning home record and four of five against winning teams. However, the Tigers are still just 8-17-2 ATS in their last 27 as a road pup.
The Bears sport nothing but negative ATS trends, including 1-5 overall, 2-5 at home (all as a favorite, 1-5 as a home chalk of less than seven points, 4-9 after a SU win, 15- against winning teams and 1-4-1 on Tuesday.
The Tigers are on “under” runs of 5-2 on the road and 4-0 as an underdog (all on the road), while Missouri State has stayed low in five of six at home (all as a favorite of less than seven points) and six of eight after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PACIFIC and UNDER
NBA
Phoenix (47-26, 41-31-1 ATS) at Chicago (35-38, 37-34-2 ATS)
The red-hot Suns take a seven-game winning streak to the United Center for a clash with the Bulls, who are in must-win mode as they currently sit on the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
Phoenix kicked off a five-game road trip Sunday with a 111-105 victory in Minnesota, though it came up short as a nine-point favorite. The Suns squandered most of a 22-point halftime lead against the lowly Timberwolves and got dominated on the glass (58-41 overall; 20-7 on offensive rebounds). Still, they won their third straight road game and improved to 9-2 in their last 11 on the highway (8-3 ATS). Phoenix currently sits fifth in the Western Conference playoff standings, but only 2½ games ahead of three teams tied for the final three playoff spots.
Chicago is coming off consecutive blowout wins over New Jersey on Saturday (106-83 as a nine-point home favorite) and Detroit on Sunday (110-103 as a 2½-point road underdog). The Bulls are 4-1 SU in their last five games and 6-1 ATS in their last eight. That said, they’ve dropped six of their last eight at home (3-5 ATS). Also, Chicago is in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, trailing Toronto by a half-game for the eighth and final postseason berth.
The Bulls have defeated the Suns three straight times (3-0 ATS), including a 115-104 upset victory as a 6½-point underdog on Jan. 22 in Phoenix. Chicago has cashed in five of the last seven meetings (all as an underdog), but the visitor is 5-2 SU during this seven-game stretch.
Despite Sunday’s non-cover against the TWolves, the Suns are on ATS runs of 18-7-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 11-2-1 when coming off a day of rest, 8-3 versus opponents with a losing record, 9-4-1 after a SU win, 5-2 after a non-cover and 20-8-1 on Tuesday. The lone negative: Six consecutive non-covers against Central Division opponents.
In addition to cashing in seven of eight overall, Chicago is on pointspread surges of 10-4 against the Western Conference, 11-5 after a SU win, 21-7 after a spread-cover, 4-1 against winning teams and 5-2 on Tuesday. However, the Bulls have failed to cover in four of five against Pacific Division squads.
Phoenix ended a 4-0 “over” run on the road by staying low in Sunday’s game at Minnesota. Still, the Suns are on “under” stretches of 15-5-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 versus the Central Division and 10-4 versus losing teams. Similarly, Chicago carries “under” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 when coming off a day of rest and 5-2 against Pacific Division opponents.
Finally, these teams have stayed under the posted total in 11 of the last 16 meetings overall, including seven of eight in the Windy City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
Oklahoma City at Philadelphia
The Sixers look to take advantage of an OKC team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games as a favorite from 5 to 10 1/2 points. Philadelphia is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+6)
Game 751-752: Sacramento at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.632; Indiana 122.889
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 753-754: Oklahoma City at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 120.762; Philadelphia 119.989
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 195
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+6); Over
Game 755-756: LA Clippers at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 110.277; Milwaukee 117.036
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 7; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 11; 193
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+11); Under
Game 757-758: Phoenix at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 122.086; Chicago 120.800
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 217 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under
Game 759-760: Washington at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 109.658; Houston 116.826
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 7 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAB
Dayton vs. Mississippi
The Flyers look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 non-conference games. Dayton is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+1)
Game 761-762: Dayton vs. Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 68.630; Mississippi 66.391
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 2
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 1
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+1)
Game 763-764: North Carolina vs. Rhode Island
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 65.036; Rhode Island 64.138
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 1
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 1
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+1)
Game 765-766: Pacific at Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 60.242; Missouri State 67.258
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 7
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (-5 1/2)
NHL
NY Rangers at NY Islanders
The Islanders look to take advantage of a Rangers team that is 1-9 in its last 10 games when playing with 2 days of rest. The Islanders are the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-115)
Game 1-2: Tampa Bay at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.735; Columbus 11.604
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 3-4: Atlanta at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.488; Toronto 11.330
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-145); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+125); Under
Game 5-6: NY Rangers at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.615; NY Islanders 12.473
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-115); Over
Game 7-8: Ottawa at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.856; Washington 11.995
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-210); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-210); Over
Game 9-10: Boston at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.891; New Jersey 12.132
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-170); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-170); Under
Game 11-12: Edmonton at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.976; Detroit 11.552
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-400); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+320); Under
Game 13-14: Los Angeles at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.210; Nashville 10.753
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+115); Under
Game 15-16: Chicago at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.854; St. Louis 11.674
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-130); Over
Game 17-18: Phoenix at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.031; Vancouver 11.514
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+155); Under
Tom Freese
Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
Philadelphia is led in scoring by guard Andre Iguodala and his 17.1 points a game. Point guard Lou Williams scores 14.4 points a game. Forward Thaddeus Young scores 13.8 points a game. Forward Elton Brand scores 13.5 points a game. The Sixers score 97.1 points a game and they allow 100.6 points a game. Philadelphia is 10-25 ATS their last 35 home games and they are 1-7 ATS off an ATS win. Oklahoma City is led in scoring by forward Kevin Durant and his 29.6 points a game. Point guard Russell Westbrook scores 16.2 points and 7.9 assists a game. Forward Jeff Green scores 14.9 points a game. Guard James Harden scores 10 points a game. The Thunder score 100.1 points a game and they allow 96.6 points a game. Oklahoma City is 44-19 ATS off a straight up loss and they are 38-16 ATS off an ATS loss. PLAY ON OKLAHOMA CITY -
Matt Fargo
North Carolina vs. Rhode Island
Play: North Carolina +1
At the start of the NIT, the big question was how North Carolina was going to react after such a disappointing season. Those questions have been answered. Expectations were high to start the season and an 11-3 start pointed toward the Tar Heels at least making it back to the NCAA Tournament to defend their National Championship from a season ago. A horrendous ACC season however pushed the Tar Heels out of the big dance and into the NIT but they have stepped up and are playing some great basketball right now. Especially on defense as North Carolina has held all three NIT opponents to less than 42 percent shooting. In the past seven games, North Carolina is holding its opponents to a 37.6 field goal percentage on 160-of-425 shooting. Six of those seven games has seen the opposition shoot below its season average. In comparison, in its previous 28 outings, it held its opponents to 41.9 percent shooting so it has been a big improvement. North Carolina’s three counterparts in New York this week all shoot 44.6 percent or better from the field, so continued growth defensively is essential. Improved play from point guard Larry Drew while seniors Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard have been playing with a sense of urgency. “We understand this was not the year we wanted to have, that we ever would have dreamed of having,” Ginyard says. “But it got to the point as a team that we had to make the best of the situation. It's been a joy for us to continue to play. We're still excited to play, and we've been showing that enthusiasm on the court.” He thinks good will come from the Tar Heels' hard fall. Rhode Island has also been playing very well after another weak finish to the regular season. The Rams defeated Northwestern and Nevada at home before pulling off the upset at Virginia Tech to make it to New York. The defense remains a big issue as Rhode Island allows opponents to shoot 46.9 percent from the floor and that is bad news against a North Carolina team that has finally found some offense. The Rams play a similar style and it will be up to the Tar Heels to continue the defensive improvement. Rhode Island is just 2-9 ATS in its 11 games following an ATS win this season while North Carolina is on a 9-0 ATS run in tournament games the last two seasons away from home. 3* North Carolina Tar Heels
Frank Jordan
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -6
Oklahoma City is coming off a loss last time out as Portland came into their building and came away with a 5 point win. Oklahoma City has a better road record 20-15 then Philadelphia has home record 12-24. Despite Oklahoma City coming off the loss they are still 6-4 in their last ten and Philadelphia even coming off two straight wins is 3-7 in their last 10. Look for Oklahoma City to get back to winning as Philadelphia gets back to losing. Play Oklahoma City
Tony Karpinski
Phoenix Suns vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls +3.5
The Chicago Bulls are fighting for the final playoffs spot in the East and playing much better as Jokim Noah is getting more playing time. The Bulls are solid at home, while the Suns continue to struggle on the road. I like the Bulls at home on Tuesday night plus the 4 points as your free play. PREDICTION: Bulls win in a shootout 111-106
Charlie Scott
Dayton vs. Mississippi
Play: Under 142
Expect both teams to get off to a slow start tonight. Mississippi hasn't played a game in a week, and Daytons last game was a 77-71 win at Illinois last Wednesday. Dayton is one of the better defense's in College Basketball, Dayton Coach Brian Gregory has made playing physical defense every possession and not giving up easy baskets a team priority and the players have bought into his system. On offense, Dayton plays at a slow pace and struggles to score points. End of a long season, with a layoff, combined with a big game atmosphere of the NIT Final 4 at Madison Square Garden, all add up to an UNDER Play !
Rob Vinciletti
Pacific vs. Missouri State
Play: Missouri State -5.5
Missouri St is a solid 18-2 at home this year, 13-1 vs non conference teams,10-1 and 7-3 ats as a home favorite from 3.5 to -6 over the last 3+ years and has won and covered every time with 5 or 6 days of rest. Pacific has taken a tough road to get here winning 3 straight post season road games. The last 2 as an underdog. They qualify in a negative system that is based on their back to back dog wins. Look for Missouri State to send Pacific home tonight with a win and cover.
BIG AL
Oklahoma City @ Philadelphia
PICK: Oklahoma City -6
At 7:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Philadelphia, as Scott Brooks' men fall into a super 158-93 ATS system of mine off their upset loss to Portland on Sunday. That defeat moved the Thunder's record to 44-28, but that's light-years better than Philly's 26-47 slate. And, since 1991, .601 (or better) road favorites, priced from -5 to -11 points, are 158-93 ATS off a loss when matched up against .399 (or worse) non-division opponents! That's one reason I favor Oklahoma City here. Another is that OKC is a super 21-6 ATS off a straight-up loss this season, and will be well-motivated to win, given its tight race with the Spurs and Trail Blazers for the 6th Playoff seed. Finally, Philly is a poor 4-12 ATS as a home underdog this season. Take Oklahoma City.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Phoenix Coyotes @ Vancouver Canucks
PICK: Vancouver Canucks -175
I only recommend favorites of this size in certain circumstances, and this is one of them; for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on Vancouver
Phoenix has secured a spot in the playoffs for the first time since 2002; it clinched with a 6-2 win over Colorado on Saturday, coupled with a Calgary loss at Boston.
Amazingly, the Coyotes are just four points behind the San Jose Sharks (they end their year with a game against San Jose on April 10th).
On the other side of the rink: The Canucks have a five-point lead over the Avalanche but have dropped three of their last four.
Captain Roberto Luongo will look to return to form tonight; Bobby Lu is just 1-3-1 with a 3.39 GAA his last five.
Bottom line: This is a first game of a back-to-back for Phoenix, which could be caught looking ahead to tomorrows contest in Calgary.
Vancouver is 11-5 (+4.2 units) after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest; I expect it to get back on track with a concerted effort in front of the home town crowd; consider laying the juice here.
JIM FEIST
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER / PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
TAKE PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
The 76ers are not packing it in, showing plenty of life down the stretch. They've had three full days off and are riding a 2-0 SU/ATS run despite being big dogs the last two games, upsetting Orlando and Atlanta. Andre Iguodala had 25 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists, Jason Kapono and Elton Brand each added 14 points, as the 76ers had a 105-98 victory over the Atlanta Hawks. Oklahoma City is on a 3-4 SU/ATS run, losing 4 times as chalk. Play the 76ers.
Nelly
Chicago + over Phoenix
While the Bulls were left for dead following the trade deadline and an ugly losing streak, the poor play from Toronto has kept Chicago in the playoff mix and appears to have revitalized the team. Chicago has won four of the last five games and though they were not quality wins in that stretch two wins did come on the road and the margins have been mainly dominant outside of the loss to Miami. Chicago has covered in seven of the last eight games and now sitting just a game behind the Raptors for the #8 spot this is a key game. Toronto picked up a surprise win last night so the Bulls can not afford to let this game go. Phoenix is stuck in its own playoff positioning battle, just a game and a half out of the #2 spot but also currently tied for the #4 and #5 spots. The Suns are on a roll right now with seven consecutive wins but only two of those wins came away from home and both of those victories came as ATS losses in narrow wins over two of the worst teams in the league. The Suns have enjoyed a very favorable schedule in the last three weeks to climb into a more relevant position, but this is a team that is just a game above .500 on the road. Chicago is playing good defense right now, allowing just 92 points per game over the last five contests and this should be a tough game for the Suns facing a desperate Bulls squad.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets
Washington has lost 15 games in a row while Houston is 0-4 SU/ATS (longest losing streak in 28 months), so something's gotta give here. We'll take a look at the total. The Wizards are a horrid defensive team, yielding over 101 points per game while the Rockets are averaging triple digits for the first time since the 1996-1997 season. In three of their last five, they've allowed 109 or more points. Expect plenty of scoring in this game.
Play on: Over
LARRY NESS
Pacific @ Missouri State
PICK: Pacific +5.5
The Pacific Tigers enter this game with a record of 23-11; they knocked off Loyola Marymount, Northern Colorado and Appalachian State to advance to the championship contest. Behind a massive first half, the Tigers were able to hold off the Mountaineers down the stretch for their third straight road victory. In fact, Pacific opened up in a hostile environment on an 11-2 run led by Demetrece Young. What was even more impressive was the defensive effort; Pacific held the Mountaineer offense in check; just eight first half field goals on 26 attempts. Joe Ford leads a formidable defense (note: Pacific is 6-1 ATS its last seven overall; 5-0 ATS its last five on the road). The Bears started the season on fire, but stumbled in the middle. The Bears struggle on the offensive end and that's bad news as Pacific held its previous two opponents to under 60 points a piece. In fact it leads the Big West in shooting defines (40.3%), is fourth in three-point defense (34.9%) and is first in overall scoring defense (60.4 ppg). Sophmore forward Kyle Weems did not score in the Bears game vs. Creighton and then was held to just eight points in their previous victory over Louisiana Tech; suffice to say Weems will once again garner most of the attention from the opportunistic Tigers (note: Missouri State is 1-5 ATS its last six overall; 3-8 ATS its last 11 at home; 11-13 ATS as a favorite; 5-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest). Even though Virginia Commonwealth covered the number last night, home teams are still a dismal 21-36 ATS in the NIT/CBI/CIT Tournaments this season; simply too many points to be giving up to this battle hardened team that excels on the road; grab those points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Thunder/76ers UNDER 195
This matchup has been an Unders machine as 7 of the last 9 overall have played to the Under and 5 of the last 6 in Philadelphia have found their way Under. Following a defeat, it has been very common for the Thunder to tighten the screws defensively in their next game. As a result, the Under is 6-1-1 in the Thunder's last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Philly is also 9-1 Under in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing 183.2 points scored on average in these spots. Bet the Under.