MLB Predictions
Toronto Blue Jays -150
Toronto will send their opening day lineup out on the field today (although Smoak might platoon with Valencia). Philadelphia might be doing the same as there is virtually no travel between the two clubs sprint training camps, but even so the Phillies line up doesn’t match up to this Blue Jays lineup. Toronto will also send Aaron Sanchez to the mound today for probably his last full start of the spring. He has a 3.39 ERA over 5 starts this spring, but hitters are batting just .217 against him with a 1.04 WHIP. Potential number 5 starter, Sean O’Sullivan, will be on the mound for Philadelphia. This spring O’Sullivan has a 6.75 ERA over 6.2 innings with batters hitting .321 against him. Last year in 12.2 innings with the Phillies he had a 6.39 ERA, and in Triple-A he had a 4.31 ERA over 25 starts. I’ll lay the -150 here tonight, as I think if this was a regular season game with this match up we would see the line in the -200 range.
GoodFella
Stanford -2
Bought the half point to lay -2 here. For sure fine if you choose not to. I have this game lined Stanford -4 so value for me laying just one bucket. The Cardinal should really control the ever so important rebounding battle tonight. They have a definite size advantage & they should get plenty of points in the paint and their fair share of 2nd chance points as well. Bottom line for me here, is that I have the Cardinal winning this game by 5-6 points tonight.
Anthony Michael
Stanford -2.5
Stanford has a huge edge in competition level played all season long coming from the PAC 12. The Cardinal have been strong in the NIT winning fairly easily along the way and they will be well prepared here. Old Dominion has squeaked by to get here winning their last 2 games by 3 points and 1 point. Their luck runs out here against Stanford.
Ken Thomson
Stanford -2.5
There is still a minus 2 here in Vegas. After talking with my buddy connected to the Cardinal program, I feel the Cardinal are focused to go on and win this semi-final and move on to Thursday's Finale at MSG vs. winner from Miami & Temple. Nastic should have an easy path to the hoop and Chasson Randle will be the best player on the court. ODU will be deliberate for awhile but the Garden city crowd should voice their dis-approval of their pace, getting them out of their game plan. The shot clock is also only 30 seconds not 35 for the NIT. ODU has spent a long time at home and this could be a factor that favors the well traveled mature group from Palo Alto. I like the Cardinal by 6-12 points in this one!
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +140 over COLUMBUS
OT included. The Jackets are red hot with six wins in a row while scoring four goals or more in all of those games but one. Over that stretch, Columbus has victories over Edmonton, Vancouver, Calgary, Anaheim, Chicago and St. Louis. However, a close look reveals that it was all smoke and mirrors in every victory. Against Edmonton, the Jackets were outshot 47-20 and won 4-3. Next up was Vancouver in which the Jackets were outshot 40-33 and won 6-2. Then it was onto Calgary where the Jackets were outshot 40-26 and won 3-2. The Ducks were next and they outshot Columbus 40-27 and lost 5-3. The Jackets concluded that stretch of six games with games in Chicago and St, Louis and they were outshot in both, 33-27 and 31-17 respectively while winning both games, 5-2 and 4-2 respectively. It doesn’t end there either. Eight games ago, Columbus was outshot by Detroit 42-26 and won 3-1 and seven games ago they defeated Edmonton 5-4 while getting outshot 35-31. These were not close games in terms of puck possession, time spent in the opposition’s end or shots on goal and none of them were in the Jackets favor. In fact, Columbus has been outshot in 15 of their last 16 games but has won nine of their past 10 games. A team’s win expectation when getting outshot is 34% but when getting outshot by 10 or more, that win expectation decreases to 19%. That’s over the past 10 years so we’re not talking about a small sample size here. You cannot get bombarded with 40 shots on net every game and expect to win. The only thing that occurred over the Jackets six-game winning streak is that they got some hot goaltending while playing their worst hockey of the year. It gets even worse for the Jackets. In nine of its past 10 games, Columbus has taken five minors or more and has been penalized the most times in the league over their last 10 games. In fact, Columbus has taken 50 minor penalties over their last 10 games and the next closest team to them has taken 32. We can’t stress enough how absurd the Jackets stretch of nine wins in 10 games is. Now after that stretch of playing some teams fighting for the playoffs and playoff positioning, the Devils come waltzing into town and we could certainly see an exhale of sorts from the Jackets. Columbus also played five of those six on the road with the first three being on the Canadian West Coast.
The Devils have lost five in a row. Thing is, they’re playing hard and they’re playing a whole lot better than Columbus is right now but once again it’s wins and losses that dictate the market price and that’s something we are going to attack. The Devils are coming off a 2-1 loss to Anaheim. The Devils had 27 shots on net, they had 7 shots blocked and they also fired 10 shots wide that were considered threatening. Anaheim had 24 shots on net and fired wide or high six times. The Devils outhit the Ducks 34-18. The Devils have been playing that winning style for weeks now but they are not getting positive results. And while the Jackets have penalized 50 times over their last 10 games, the Devils have been penalized 21 times. No matter how you break it down, New Jersey is playing so much better than the Jackets are right now. The Devils are playing their signature, structured brand of hockey that made them one of the toughest outs every single year while the Jackets are playing as poorly as or even worse than the Maple Leafs. The Jackets simply cannot keep winning by getting outshot 40-25 every night and spending most of the game in their own end. Columbus is very high on our fade list in these last few games and we’ll start attacking them here.
Carolina +190 over WASHINGTON
OT included. Teams heading to the playoffs can see the finish line and can’t wait for the post-season to begin after a grueling schedule and a lot of hard work that has paid off. Washington has six games remaining. They’re coming off a hugely satisfying 5-2 victory over the Rangers on Saturday. After this game the Caps embark on a three-game trip to Montreal, Ottawa and Detroit before returning home to conclude their regular season with games against Boston and the Rangers. This is one of those extremely vulnerable spots for Washington, as Carolina is a team they will not be meeting in the playoffs while Montreal, Detroit, Boston and New York are all possible playoff matchups that the Caps will have to deal with. There is no message to send to the Hurricanes here. However, Washington is very much intent on putting some doubts in the minds of all those other teams that they play after this one, as they are going to have to get through some of them to advance in the playoffs. This is one of those real classic “sandwich” games that comes after playing the Rangers and just before heading out on a three-game trip to face the Canadiens.
Carolina remains one of the most undervalued teams in the league. They were clearly the better team against Boston on Sunday but lost 2-1 in OT. Prior to that the ‘Canes won two straight. They have allowed two goals or less in six of their last nine, which comes as no surprise considering that they are second in the league in shots allowed on net per game behind Los Angeles. If L.A. misses the playoffs, it’ll be the first time in history that the top team in shots allowed per game will miss the playoffs. Carolina is having a year to forget. Everything has gone wrong for this talented team from poor puck luck to far too many games of weak goaltending. That doesn’t mean that the ‘Canes have quit. They have outshot nine of their past 10 opponents and have won five of their last eight games on the road. Advanced stats like these ‘Canes very much. In that regard, Carolina is considered a top-6 team in several key categories, which includes special teams combined, shots on net allowed, time of possession in the opposition’s end and shots attempted at the net. There are times when the price dictates the play and in a game in which the dog has a win expectation that is equal to the favorite, we must play the value and that applies to the Hurricanes here.
Ottawa +141 over DETROIT
OT included. The Red Wings were very high on our list of potential Stanley Cup winners all season long. This team is loaded with offensive talent that can score in bunches on any given night. Detroit is still a serious threat to represent the East in the finals but something has to change for that to occur. Coach Mike Babcock is so concerned with the poor play of Jimmy Howard that he started Petr Mrazek in back-to-back games this past weekend. Saturday, Mrazek shutout the Bolts, 4-0 but he followed that up by allowing four goals on the first 11 shots on Sunday to the Islanders before being yanked. Imagine that. Jimmy Howard was healthy and Babcock elected to start Mrazek on Saturday and Sunday. That’s about all the info we need to back the sharp-shooting Senators here. The Red Wings have allowed five goals or more in three of their past four games. With Howard starting, the Red Wings also lost 7-2 to the Flyers recently. Even the San Jose Sharks came in here last week and scored six times in a 6-4 victory. As the chalk, Detroit is a team to stay far away from right now.
Man, you gotta love the way the market works. Ottawa now goes from being expected to win to being expected to lose after dropping three straight. The Sens were favored in all three games they just lost but they have played their best hockey under these “expected to lose” conditions. After losing to New York, Toronto and Florida, the hockey world is writing the Senators off again. Ottawa now sits three points behind the Bruins for the final playoff spot but they have a game in hand so writing them off now is completely premature. Ottawa has a push left in them. They are a high scoring team that is very capable of burying some goals against a fragile netminder. The Sens were simply a little too high over the past 6½ weeks and so a letdown was inevitable. Ottawa was brought back down to earth after losing in Toronto and played the last game against Florida under some heavy pressure. They lost that game to the Panthers but the good news is that the pressure they felt to win that game is long gone. Now the Sens hit the road, where they can easily get their focus back to the task at hand. Ottawa isn’t dead yet. They have picked up points on the road in 10 straight games with nine victories and one OT loss. We often say that the best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping off and now we get Senators at a very decent price in a game in which their focus and intensity figures to be sky high. We’re definitely buyers.
Pass NCAAB
Dave Price
Evansville -6½
The Evansville Purple Aces (22-12) are far and away the best team left in the College Inside Tournament. They came from the toughest conference of the four remaining teams in the Missouri Valley, and they have been mighty impressive up to this point. After topping a solid IUPU-Fort Wayne team 82-77 at home, they went on the road and crushed Eastern Illinois 83-68 before topping LA-Lafayette 89-82 as 3-point road dogs. Tennessee-Martin has had a much easier path to get here, beating Northwestern State, USC Upstate and Eastern Kentucky. The Purple Aces have had a solid home-court advantage this season as they are 1-5, winning by an average of 9.2 points per game. Evansville is 8-0 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season. Tennessee-Martin is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 vs. Missouri Valley opponents.
Ari Atari
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -1½
The Clippers and Warriors are rivals in this league but that doesn't mean Golden State will come out with guns blazing. This is a team that has only one need right now: stay healthy! The need to win takes a backseat when they've already clinched home court advantage and the top seed in the West. LA has more to play for and they're just as hot with 7 games won in a row and a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6. Much can be said in this game if both teams were playing all out, but it's obvious that the home team here owns the edge and the visitors couldn't care less if they did. The Warriors don't simply lie down and allow the Clip Show to dominate but when it comes down to max effort and max risk of injury, they'll most likely back off and take a meaningless loss.
Jack Jones
Pacers / Nets Under 199
Both the Indiana Pacers (32-41) and Brooklyn Nets (32-40) are fighting for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn is only percentage points behind Boston for the No. 8 seed, while Indiana is 1/2-game back.
Given the state of both these teams right now, there's no question that each will be laying it all on the line tonight to get a win. I believe that will be more reflected in their effort defensively than anything as this game will have a playoff feel to it.
The last time these teams played, the total was set at 195. They went off for 234 combined points as Brooklyn shot 61.3% from the field, while Indiana shot 50.0%. That was clearly an aberration and will not happen again. In fact, five of the last six meetings between these teams have seen 196 or fewer combined points.
Indiana is 59-32 to the UNDER in its last 91 when revenging a home loss of 10 points or more against an opponent. Brooklyn is 41-31 to the UNDER in all games this season. The Pacers are 36-20 to the UNDER off a home win over the last two years.
Bryan Power
Rangers vs. Jets
Pick: Under
I anticipate that the linesmakers could drop this number to an even 5.0 goal total, so perhaps you may want to bet this one Under quickly. You might be surprised at this because the Rangers have gone Over in five straight games while the Jets have gone Over in three straight. But tonight should be a different story.
The Rangers allowed three goals in the third period in Sunday's loss to the Capitals, which shouldn't happen again, regardless if it's Henrik Lundqvist or Cam Talbot in net. I think what's happened the last few games is a post playoff-clinch "hangover." Tonight, on the road, the team should be more focused. New York is 11-6 Under this season on the road when the total is 5.5.
As for the Jets, they'd allowed two goals or fewer in six of seven games prior to Sunday's 4-3 loss to Chicago (I had Over there). Goaltender Ondrej Pavelec had a 1.15 GAA his previous six starts before taking that loss. Lay the juice to get the 5.5 for this one.
Wunderdog
Golden State @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -3
The L.A. Clippers are a highly motivated team, fighting for playoff positioning, and have won seven in a row. They face a Golden State team that has sewn everything up as the #1 seed. The Warriors have never fared well here at 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings in Los Angeles, and they have nothing to play for tonight. The Clippers, though, have been on a roll since Blake Griffin (elbow surgery) returned from a 15-game absence, winning their last seven by an average of 14.9 points for their second-longest streak of the season. Chris Paul has averaged 23.3 points and 11.7 assists over the past six to help the surging Clippers -- currently fifth in the West -- move within one game of third-place Memphis. The Clippers are on a 5-1 ATS run and when these teams play the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Brad Diamond
San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat +7
Obviously, the Heat are banged up and should not extract a SU win here, but that does not discount the forged number is an overlay on the road! Although the Spurs have covered 4 straight in the series, believe the Heat will play with more engery carrying a 5-0 ATS mark to the floor..
Rob Vinciletti
Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons -5½
Detroit is laying points at home vs an Atlanta team that has things wrapped up and may not play all their starters here on the 2nd of back to back nights. The Pistons apply to a powerful system that has cashed 23 of 26 times since 1995 and plays on certain Conference home teams with 1 day of rest that lost and failed to cover as a road dog in their last game where they scored and allowed 100 or more points., vs an opponent like Atlanta that was favored by 5 or more points at home. The Pistons are 5-1 to the spread off 3+ games that went over the total and have covered 11 of the last 15 vs winning teams. The Hawks have lost 30 of the last 40 here in Detroit and have failed to cover the last 3 on the road with no rest off a home game. Look for Detroit to get the cash tonight.
Alex Smart
San Antonio vs. Miami
Play: Under 195
Atlanta enters this game having kept three of their L/4 opponents from scoring more than 88 points. I feel with their play off situation resolved , a hardcore defensive posture will begin to take center stage with the post season fast approaching. The Hawks know the Pistons like to run, so will do their best to control the pace of this tilt. Also despite of liking a faster paced game plan, Motown has played some decent defense overall of late with only two teams eclipsing the 100 point plateau against them over a 8 game span. Their offense during a current run is scoring 106.6 per game , which is 8.8 ppg above their prior average, and Im betting the Pistons come back down to the mean average , which should not have them eclipsing the 100 point plateau. HC VanGundy of the Pistons has pulled the reigns back on his squad, in the past and is 37-15 UNDER as coach when his team goes on a scoring rampage , hitting 100 or more points in 4 straight games, with the average combined score of the folliwing game clicking in at 194.1 ppg. It must be noted that Atlanta, is among the league's leaders with 97.1 points allowed per game, and have allowed the Pistons to average just 91.3 ppg and just under 40 percent shooting in three earlier meetings.
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Under in the Stanford-ODU meeting from New York City.
I don't expect this Old Dominion-Stanford meeting to add up to an Over on Tuesday night.
Both teams have played 2 of their first 3 in this tournament Under the total, and Stanford does enter this one on an overall 9-4-1 Under run their last 14 games overall.
Old Dominion's quarterfinal meeting with three-ball loving Murray State did indeed make its way Over the total, but that was the Monarchs first Over in their last 6 games. For the season, ODU went 17-8 Under the total in their 25 lined games.
If the Monarchs want to advance to the final on Thursday night, then defense had better be their calling card in this meeting with the Cardinal.
Sometimes teams come out a little tight when you get down to the semis of a tournament, and I am expecting tonight's game to be no different.
It will be close, but it will be Under in this Cardinal-Monarchs meeting on Tuesday.
3* STANFORD-OLD DOMINION UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free play for Tuesday is on Stanford, as the Cardinal are going to the championship round of this event. There are big goals for this team, with many upperclassmen who three years ago were in this same boat, and won the whole thing over Minnesota.
Nothing like book-ending a college career with another postseason title. It's not the bigger dance, but it is something to hang some laurels on, and the seniors are taking this to heart.
I know Old Dominion is a stingy team on defense, and have been deadly in allowing opponents an average of 56.8 points per game, the seventh-lowest figure in all of D-I men’s hoops. But I also know the Cardinal is led by coach Johnny Dawkins, and his pedigree runs far too deep to be outclassed by the Monarchs.
If Stanford was going to lose, it would have already bowed out. But you don't get this far without coming away with a shot at the title.
1* STANFORD