Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, March 5

NCAAB

Ohio State at Indiana
The Buckeyes look to take advantage of an Indiana team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600. Ohio State is the pick (+8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoosiers favored by only 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+8 1/2)

Game 507-508: Illinois at Iowa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 69.887; Iowa 71.235
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 1 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Iowa by 4; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+4); Under

Game 509-510: Marquette at Rutgers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 70.485; Rutgers 61.358
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 9
Vegas Line: Marquette by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (-6 1/2)

Game 511-512: Virginia Tech at Duke (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 57.439; Duke 76.315
Dunkel Line: Duke by 19; 145
Vegas Line: Duke by 20 1/2; 149
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+20 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: St. John's at Notre Dame (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 62.690; Notre Dame 69.089
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 6 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 9; 126
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (+9); Over

Game 515-516: Boston College at Clemson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 61.256; Clemson 62.422
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1
Vegas Line: Clemson by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+4 1/2)

Game 517-518: Southern Mississippi at Marshall (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 62.763; Marshall 58.775
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 4; 136
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 6 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+6 1/2); Under

Game 519-520: Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 52.140; Central Michigan 47.122
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 5
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 1
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+1)

Game 521-522: Ohio at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 61.057; Buffalo 54.833
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 6
Vegas Line: Ohio by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-4 1/2)

Game 523-524: Miami (OH) at Akron (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 48.318; Akron 63.323
Dunkel Line: Akron by 15
Vegas Line: Akron by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+16 1/2)

Game 525-526: Bowling Green at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 52.021; Kent State 60.865
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 9
Vegas Line: Kent State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-8)

Game 527-528: Ball State at Western Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 52.443; Western Michigan 58.364
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 6
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 10
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+10 1/2)

Game 529-530: Northern Illinois at Toledo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 43.448; Toledo 52.390
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 9
Vegas Line: Toledo by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+10 1/2)

Game 531-532: Arkansas at Missouri (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 62.656; Missouri 74.382
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Missouri by 10
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-10)

Game 533-534: TCU at Kansas State(7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 48.420; Kansas State 73.406
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 25
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 21 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-21 1/2)

Game 535-536: Memphis at UTEP (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 69.467; UTEP 60.610
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 9; 134
Vegas Line: Memphis by 3; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3); Over

Game 537-538: Alabama at Mississippi (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 61.106; Mississippi 70.198
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 9; 131
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 4; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-4); Under

Game 539-540: Ohio State at Indiana (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 71.871; Indiana 78.308
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 6 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Indiana by 8 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+8 1/2); Under

Game 541-542: Seton Hall at Providence (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 56.627; Providence 68.006
Dunkel Line: Providence by 11 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Providence by 8; 133
Dunkel Pick: Providence (-8); Over

Game 543-544: Boise State at UNLV (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 62.813; UNLV 72.393
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: UNLV by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-7 1/2)

Game 545-546: Loyola-Chicago at Youngstown State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 55.544; Youngstown State 53.090
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+2)

Game 547-548: Cleveland State at Illinois-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 53.311; Illinois-Chicago 51.132
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 2
Vegas Line: Illinois-Chicago by 4
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (+4)

Game 549-550: WI-Milwaukee at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 46.774; WI-Green Bay 59.732
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 13
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+14 1/2)

Game 561-562: Winthrop vs. Radford (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winthrop 44.526; Radford 44.139
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Winthrop by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Radford (+1 1/2)

Game 563-564: Longwood at NC-Asheville (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Longwood 38.012; NC-Asheville 50.141
Dunkel Line: NC-Asheville by 12
Vegas Line: NC-Asheville by 14
Dunkel Pick: Longwood (+14)

Game 565-566: Presbyterian vs. Campbell (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Presbyterian 42.625; Campbell 40.788
Dunkel Line: Presbyterian by 2
Vegas Line: Campbell by 3
Dunkel Pick: Presbyterian (+3)

Game 567-568: Liberty at Coastal Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Liberty 41.355; Coastal Carolina 53.791
Dunkel Line: Coastal Carolina by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Coastal Carolina (-8 1/2)

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Winnipeg vs. FloridaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Panthers host the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday night, and Florida is looking to bounce back from three consecutive losses. In order to do that, they will need better play from their goaltenders. Jose Theodore left in the first period of Saturday's game versus Carolina with an injury, and he won't be available for today's game.
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Scott Clemmensen came in to relieve Theodore, and he allowed six goal on 33 shots. Now some might say that a backup netminer that wasn't expected to play, could be forgiven for such a performance, and they may have a point. Yesterday's terrible outing was not an isolated incident though, as Clemmensen couldn't even get out of the first period in his previous start, allowing three goals on 10 shots.
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Clemmensen's numbers are "off the charts", and not in a good way. He's 2-2-2 with a 4.31 GAA. To put that in perspective, there are 40 goaltenders in the NHL that have a GAA lower than 4.00, meaning most teams have two or three goalies with better numbers. He really doesn't belong in the NHL, and he's not likely to last too much longer.
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The Panthers have since called up Jacob Markstrom, who has allowed six goal in two starts this season, with a GAA of 3.05.
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Ondrej Pavelec has been average at best for the Jets, and he allowed three goals on just 21 shots in his last game, losing 3-0 to the Caps.
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Eight of the last 10 head to head meeting between these teams have seen the total go over. The Panthers have played four straight over versus teams with a losing record, while the Jets have seen the total go over the number in four straight road games.

Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis vs. Los AngelesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The St. Louis Blues are coming off a loss on the road in Dallas on Sunday, and they are in L.A. Tuesday to take on the defending champs. The Kings are playing in a back-to-back situation after hosting Nashville on Monday night.
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Both these teams have 24 points on the season, locked in a five way tie with three other teams, occupying 4th to 8th in the Western Conference. This game should have a playoff feel to it, given that both these teams are on the cusp.
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Here are my keys to the game:
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1: Situational/Motivational - This game is so important to both teams, that neither team can afford to let up. I expect to see both teams play desperate "playoff style" hockey, as they try to earn at least a point.
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2: Recent History - These two teams have seen the total go under in five of six previous meetings in L.A., and the Kings have not seen the total go over 5 goals in any of their last six games versus division rivals.
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3: Goaltending - Jaroslav halak is the probable starter for the Blues, and he's just getting back from an injury that has kept him out for a few weeks. Halak is 5-1-1 with a 1.90 GAA this season. He's allowed just seven goals over his last four starts, and the Blues have allowed opponents 20 shots or less in three of those four games. Halak started this season with shutouts in two of his first three games.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Eastern Michigan vs. Central Michigan
Pick: Central MichiganFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Now that Keno Davis’ CMU has finally snapped a debilitating 10-game SU losing streak by pounding Northern Illinois on Saturday, the Chippewas might like the feel of winning so much that they do so again vs. the limited EMU weaponry. Keno getting nice contributions lately from frosh G Chris “ESPN” Fowler, who has scored in DDs in his last five games and is tallying a hefty 18 ppg his last three, relieving some of the offensive burden from explosive UNC-Greensboro transfer Kyle Randall (17.6 ppg). Expect CMU to hit better than the 23% beyond the arc that hindered the Chips vs. Rob Murphy’s zone in the first meeting on Jan. 15 at Ypsilanti, where Eagles won by 6.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois vs. IowaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: IllinoisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LTKO revenge rears its ugly head again in this one as the Illini will look for payback from an opening round 64-61 defeat at the hands of the Hawkeyes in the 2012 Big Ten tourney, a loss that ended an Illinois 5-game win-and-cover streak over Iowa. John Groce’s team also had a 5-game streak snapped last week by Michigan. Hey, no shame in dropping a contest to a Wolverines squad with two guys named Tim Hardaway and Glenn Robinson and their 25 years of combined NBA experience. Anyway, that 5-game Illini win streak, which began with back-to-back upsets of Indiana and Minnesota and ended with three straight trouncings of Big Ten bottom-feeders, put Illinois up on the 20-win pedestal, an accomplishment that nearly guarantees they’ll be dancing in March. Now they need to seal the deal with a big road win in Iowa City against a Hawkeye squad in the middle of an Indiana/Nebraska same-season revenge sandwich and a 3-8 SU record versus teams with a win percentage greater than .666 this season. We have no problem fading this wobbly home favorite tonight. Neither should you. We recommend a 1-unit play on Illinois.

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami (OH) vs. AkronFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Miami (OH)FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Situational Analysis
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The RedHawks are coming off a 78-58 loss to Kent State on the 2nd. It was Miami Ohio's seventh straight setback. Will Felder had 18 points on 7 of 10 shooting.
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Akron is coming off an 81-67 loss at Buffalo on the 2nd. Zeke Marshall led the way with 17 points.
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Statistical Analysis
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While Miami Ohio has been an overall disappointment for bettors this year in almost every single ATS statistical category, it's still significant to note that it's 2-0 ATS over the last two years as a road dog in the 15.5 to 18 point range.
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Note that Akron is just 5-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season, and 0-1 ATS after allowing 80 points or more.
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Pick Analysis
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The last time these teams played against each other, Akron would hold on for the 54-50 win on February 9th. Akron had a 19 game win streak snapped in the setback to Buffalo. This often has a hangover like effect for College level athletes, and I believe that's going to be the case tonight. While I'm not calling for an outright upset, I definitely feel that the pieces are in place for the RedHawks to keep this one much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; grab all those points!

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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TCU at Kansas StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TCUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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TCU is absolutely terrible, so this is not a game where I will try and build a case for the Horned Frogs. But talk about flat city for Kansas State. It's Senior Night, the Wildcats know they've got a soft touch and they're already a lock for NCAA. There are much bigger fish to fry at Oklahoma State this weekend, and in the conference tournament next week. I just cannot see any intensity for the home team here, and it's tough to cover numbers like this in total dead spots. The bad news is that TCU is just awful enough to get annihilated regardless. But the situation says take the gigantic road dog, so I'll go ahead and take the plunge with TCU and the massive points.

Jim Feist

Memphis at UTEP
Pick: UTEP

Memphis already has the Conference USA title locked up and this is their third straight road game. Memphis is 1-1 on this trip, losing at Xavier as -4.5 chalk. UTEP is very good, third in the conference and the Miners are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. They play great defense and have been playing well of late, 3-2 SU, 4-0-1 ATS the last 5 games. And when UTEP faces a good team the Miners are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Play UTEP!

Don Best Consensus

Presbyterian vs Campbell
Pick: Under

Under is 9-2 in Blue Hose last 11 overall. Under is 4-0 in Fighting Camels last 4 neutral site games.

Sean HiggsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ohio State vs. IndianaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: IndianaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I just feel that Indiana has the size and guard play that hurt the Buckeyes. This is a big line, and Ohio State does have recent trends in their favor. Regardless, I think the Hoosiers are a legit title team while I have OSU outside of that fence looking in. Final home game here for Indiana.

Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa -4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois, as of now in Linardi's bracket, is in the Dance, while Iowa is not. That HAS to piss Iowa off, given that Illinois really only has a couple of quality wins at home. Not that Iowa can make a case for being "in" with a loss at Nebraska, but this is a home game and it is a rivalry. It's not Iowa's last home game, but with only the rematch against the Cornhuskers on Saturday, it's one they'll most certainly be focused in. Yes, Illinois has been playing fairly well, or at least has strung together some wins. But they've got no more home games and play at Ohio State on Saturday. They're a .500 team in the Conference and can not move up prior to the Big Ten Tournament, so what they're playing for is to ensure that they stay "in" the dance, and with the 10th worst Conference SOS, I would contend that they're a bit over rated. They shoot a lot of three's, which is always tough to back on the road, and they are NOT a great defensive rebounding team, which is also tough to back on the road.
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Iowa's ONLY home loss was to Michigan State, and only by three points. Illinois is simply not the Spartans. In Conference play Iowa has the second best three point defense, which obviously plays right into what Illinois wants to do. Illinois' defense, although they can create turnovers, is simply not that good. Size-wise Iowa can compete, but what we really like here is that Iowa is a great FT shooting team and get to the line as much as anyone in the Big Ten. (See Montana, FML).
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I've watched Iowa get super-hot from behind the arc, although it's not their norm. However, because Illinois' three point defense is at the bottom of the Conference, it's just another way Iowa can win this game, and the only way the Illini win it is to simply outscore Iowa, which I simply do not see happening on the road. Iowa will play at a faster tempo, and also have a much deeper bench. Since Gesell got hurt, Marble has shifted to the point guard position, which I actually like because he's far more experienced. Illinois had to travel to Iowa Monday before a storm was coming in, and Marble at 6'6" just presents matchup issues everywhere. Sam McLaurin, a backup for Illinois that typically plays about 50% of the minutes, is coming off a mild sprain. If he's not 100% that weakens Illinois even further.
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Bottom line here is that it's going to take a perfect set of circumstances for Illinois to get this win n the road, while as we've alluded to, Iowa has tons of ways to win this game, and making the Tournament for them is not out of the question, or at least don't tell them that.

JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit -160FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These R W's are (10-8-4) & 2-0-1 in its last 3 at home after a three-game losing streak .. The O is shooting the puck well scoring 15 goals the 5 battles... #'s are strong at.... Avalanche are 0-5 in their last 5 road games & Avalanche are 11-23 in the last 34 meetings. Fire on the Redwings..

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boise State +8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both of these teams are 20+ win teams so this line seems like it is a little bigger than it should be. This matchup falls into a system to play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boise State when they have covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, and they are playing only their 3rd game in a week. This system is 59-30 (66.3%) over the last 5 seasons.
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You should also play on a road team like Boise State when they are a good offensive team scoring 74-78 points per game against a defensive team allowing 63-67 points per game, after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more. This system is 58-35 (62.4%) over the last 5 seasons.
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UNLV is 7-9 ATS so it seems their 15-1 home record is getting them a little too much credit with the oddsmakers. Boise State is a good team that is 7-5 ATS on the road. Their high powered offense should be able to keep this game close on the road in what should be a very good game.

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CAROLINA -½ +128 over BuffaloFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Sabres have quieted the critics by picking up seven out of a possible eight points over their last four games. We’re not buying their sudden improvement for a second. A close look reveals that the Sabres’ three wins came against Tampa Bay, Florida and New Jersey. Combined, that trio is on a current 4-25 run and Buffalo did not outplay any of them, getting outshot and out-chanced in all three by wide margins. Buffalo’s recent success is a complete mirage.
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Much ado has been made over the Hurricanes losing Cam Ward to injury for 6-8 weeks. We say, “big deal”. In fact, it has created an overreaction by the betting public to which we can take full advantage. Cam Ward has been average all season while Dan Ellis has been outstanding. This could be a blessing in disguise. Ward leaves with a 2.84 GAA and .908 save percentage in 16 games while Ellis steps in with a 2.53 GAA and .923 save percentage in six games played. Since the return of Joel Skinner and Tim Gleason from injuries, Carolina has won three straight while outscoring the opposition 13-5. That includes a 4-1 win over the Penguins. Expect more of the same here against the most disorganized team in the NHL.
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N.Y. ISLANDERS +107 over MontrealFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Montreal Canadiens are back on the map. After beating Boston on Sunday, the Habs are in first place in the Eastern Conference. Quite remarkable when you consider that they missed the playoffs last spring. Overall, this greatly improved club has lost just four times in regulation in 22 games. However, this is just one of those situational spots that is not in Montreal’s favor. The Canadiens are coming off four games in succession against its biggest rivals, Ottawa, Toronto, Pittsburgh and Boston. The past two games, on Saturday and Sunday against the Pens and Bruins respectively, were playoff like action and intensity that both came down to the final seconds. It’s highly unlikely that the Canadiens will match that intensity here at a venue that sorely lacks atmosphere.
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The Islanders remain one of the biggest risks as a favorite while being the most profitable dogs in the league. Too often, their impressive wins are followed by a disturbing loss. Such was the case recently when the Islanders beat the Devils 5-1 only to follow it up with a 7-0 loss to the Flyers two days later. The Isles have victories over some of the best teams and losses against some of the worst. In other words, the New York Islanders are the NHL’s most unpredictable club. However, the Islanders are still loaded with talent, they have a Sidney Crosby-like superstar in John Tavares and a power-play that ranks 4th in the league. As a pooch in a favorable spot, they offer up value and it all fits here.
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COLUMBUS +114 over EdmontonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Jackets remain a last place club but that doesn’t mean they should be a dog at home to the team that sits just four points ahead of them in the standings. It obviously goes a bit deeper thathat. Edmonton is losing by considerable margins with five of the Oilers last six losses being by two goals or more, including their past two, at St. Louis and at Minnesota, where the Oil were outshot by a combined 73-38. Edmonton has dropped five of seven and it will play its fifth straight on the road here with a game on Thursday in Detroit on deck. This poor play is no coincidence as the Oilers enter this game with as many as nine regulars on the injured list.
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Meanwhile, Columbus continues to improve. Its work ethic is second to none in the NHL. This is one of the most improved clubs in the NHL this year but its record has not reflected that yet due to some hard luck. The Jackets have picked up points in three straight over Dallas, Chicago and Colorado. All of the Blue Jackets last seven losses have been by just one goal and that includes games against Los Angeles, St. Louis, Anaheim and Chicago. Columbus is coming off a 2-1 win over Colorado in which they out-chanced the Avs by a count of 19-6 and outshot them 34-19. Unlike the Oilers, Columbus is gaining steam and confidence and it has not allowed a PP goal against in six straight games. They’re also at home where the Jackets have picked up points in seven of 12 games. The host in this series has won eight of the past 10 games, the Blue Jackets will get some key healthy bodies back in the lineup tonight (Jack Johnson and center Derick Brassard) and there’s not a legit reason why Edmonton should be favored at this venue.