Lenny Del Genio
Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Detroit Pistons
The Lakers are not to be trusted on the road. They are 6-12 SU & 5-13 ATS away from home this season and this looks like a tricky spot laying points to an underrated Pistons squad. After a dreadful start to the year, Detroit has been playing much better and the market has been slow to catch up. We say that b/c they have gone 11-4 ATS last 15 games and were it not for a poor 4th quarter showing on the road Saturday night at Memphis, they easily could have been 12-3 ATS L15. Don't be surprised to see this line get "bet up" in the direction of the Lakers, so you may want to wait until closer to tip off to actually bet the game. Play on Detroit.
Sean Murphy
Atlanta @ Indiana
PICK: Indiana -6.5
The Hawks have won back-to-back home games over the Bucks and Thunder to at least stop the bleeding on the heels of an ugly 4-9 SU stretch.
I’m still not convinced they’re all the way back just yet, and with Joe Johnson expected to miss another game on Tuesday, they’re in a tough spot against what should be a highly-motivated Pacers squad.
Keep in mind, this is a Hawks team that has the likes of Kirk Hinrich, Jerry Stackhouse, and Vladimir Radmanovic playing significant minutes right now.
Indiana was crushed by 20 points in Chicago last night, marking its first loss in seven games. That result wasn’t all that surprising, as the Bulls were set on earning an ounce of revenge after dropping a 95-90 decision on their home floor in late January.
We won with the Pacers on Saturday, as they thoroughly dominated the Hornets in what may have been our easiest winning ticket of the season. In my analysis of that play, I noted that Indiana was back to full strength with George Hill and Jeff Foster returning from injuries.
Hill continues to be one of the most underrated players in basketball. Since his return, the Pacers have gone 3-1 SU and ATS. While Foster is once again sidelined with a back injury, his absence isn’t a big deal as he hadn’t contributed much since getting back in the lineup.
This is a key spot for the Pacers, as they aim to bounce back from last night’s second half meltdown, and do so knowing that they’ll have three full days off before returning to the floor for a back-to-back set in Miami and Orlando on Saturday and Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Hawks will need to save a little in the tank, as their road trip continues with a stop in Miami tomorrow night, and Detroit on Friday.
This will be the third meeting in this series this season, with the home team going a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS so far. Keep in mind, this has been a home-dominated series for years, not to mention the fact that the favorite has gone 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
Bryan Power
Duquesne @ Massachusetts
PICK: Massachusetts -4.5
The revenge angle is in play for host UMass here as they lost by 11 at Duquesne earlier in the year. The good news for the rematch is they get the Dukes in their gym where they've gone 15-1 straight up this season w/ the lone loss coming by a single point. Good number to lay as the Minutemen as 9-2 ATS when favored by six points or less here at home. Duquesne did not finish the regular season well, losing five of seven while going 1-6 ATS. Seems pretty simple, no?
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +126 over NASHVILLE
The total is 5 and you have to lay 30 cents to play it under, meaning the books expect this to be low scorer and they're probably right. Both teams have solid goaltending and it is a crap shoot to predict which goalie will be the difference maker tonight. The point is, this game is a tossup and the Kings' chances of winning are as good as the Preds' chances and therefore taking back some juice is the prudent choice. L.A. is finally playing its best hockey of the year and it couldn't have come at a better time. They open a pivotal four-game trip here and they're just a point behind the Sharks for the eighth and final playoff spot. The Kings go for their third straight victory here after beating the Ducks 4-2 on Sunday. Jeff Carter scored twice in that game and the Kings have scored 13 times in four games since Carter's arrival. This is a team with a new found confidence and one that is more dangerous than they were two weeks ago Play: Los Angeles +126 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +131 over PHILADELPHIA Pinnacle
Despite being without a couple of key players and their #1 goaltender, the Red Wings are still the Red Wings and can beat anyone. Against the high flying Blackhawks on Sunday, in a 2-1 loss, Detroit played a solid game, held Chicago to just 18 shots on net and could've easily won. Joey MacDonald has been so solid in net since Jimmy Howard went down so that's a non-issue. MacDonald is 7-2-1 with a 1.69 GAA in 10 games for Detroit. Philly's goaltending is an issue. Ilya Bryzgalov is inconsistent as have the Flyers been at home. Philadelphia's road record continues to be better than its home record and it remains an ongoing issue. As banged up as the Red Wings are, the Flyers are just as dinged up, as defensemen Kimmo Timonen and Andrej Meszaros along with left wing James van Riemsdyk are all sidelined. Finally, the Flyers will honor Mark Howe tonight in a pre-game ceremony. Aside from the recognition to the player, these ceremonies hinder the home-team as they are forced to stand around their own blue-line for 30 minutes or so while the opposing team relaxes in the dressing room. We see the sluggish effects that these events cause the host. It is a liability that can aid our purposes. Combine that with the significant edge in net and on defense that the Wings possess and the tag here makes the Red Wings much more appealing than the host Play: Detroit +131 (Risking 2 units).
Edmonton +188 over SAN JOSE
We've been playing against the Sharks for a couple of weeks now and we see no reason to stop here. This is a fragile host that is hanging on to that final playoff spot by a thread. The Sharks have dropped 11 of their past 15 games to fall from first place in the Pacific division down to eighth in the conference, a single point ahead of L.A. Under pressure, the Sharkies are the least appealing team in the NHL, as they prove every year come playoffs. Now this young, talented and energetic Oilers team will come in loose with a chance to play the spoiler. Edmonton brings the NHL's #1 ranked power-play with them and it's also worth noting that they're healthier than they've been all season. Great price on the Oil and one we're sure not going to overlook when considering the opponent and their current and historical struggles under pressure. Play: Edmonton +188 (Risking 2 units).
Sharky Sports
Pitt -6 (-105) for 2 units @ 2 pm- I think the public is really overrating how St. John’s will come out at MSG. Pitt is trying to salvage an uncharacteristically terrible season, and they match-up very nicely against St. John’s as is evidenced by their 20 point win earlier in the season. Yes this was at home, but there are some variables from that game that should remain constant, such as a significant edge on the glass for Pitt as they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country in addition to the ability to do pretty much whatever they please on offense. St. John’s gives up an extraordinary amount of assists to opponents, which should be heightened with Woodall running the point for Pitt. St. John’s has also consistently struggled with zones, and Pitt will most likely play a point-zone tonight, really contesting St. John’s and making looks on offense hard to come by. While Pitt always seems to come up short in the Big East tournament and rely on an at-large bid into the tournament, I see things differently this year. I can’t see Jamie Dixon letting this disappointing season end without really making some noise in the tournament, and I think they will peak at the right time and really make a run. Hopefully Gibbs can knock down some shots today, which will really open up the court for drives. St. John’s is poor at defending the three and even worse at shooting it themselves, so I’m hoping both of these trends continue tonight. Furthermore, St. John’s is not a deep team whatsoever, and I think Pitt can wear them down with constant high-pressure defense. Overall, I think Pitt makes a statement in this game and really takes care of business, showing the Big East that their season isn’t done just yet.
Richmond +6 (-105) for 2 units @ 7 pm- Real good situational spot for Richmond against a La Salle team that is really struggling as of late. La Salle is lights out from three, but their 4 guard offense should struggle against Richmond’s zone tonight. Combine that with the fact that they get no inside presence to play inside-out tonight, and I think Richmond’s high-scoring offense is more than capable of keeping this one close. Overall I think Richmond takes care of business on the road.
WUNDERDOG
George Washington at Dayton
Pick: George Washington +9
George Washington has suffered through a 20 loss season and will head to Dayton where the Flyers will be looking to secure their 20th win. These clubs met in the regular season finale where Dayton was an easy 16 point winner. That could spell trouble here as the Flyers may be looking ahead thinking this is an easy one. Dayton may be looking for their 20th win, but have been an unsteady 5-6 in their last 11 regular season games and, despite their win in the season finale, George Washington has taken the money in five of the last seven meetings. Dayton will be caught napping in this one, play on George Washington.
Sam Martin
Orlando Magic at Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Orlando Magic
We nearly pulled the trigger with Orlando tonight as one of our premium selections, but this pointpsread was just a bit too high for us to attach a 15* rating. Still, we do look for the Magic to win this game in a blowout, and believe there is still plenty of line value backing Orlando tonight. Charlotte is coming off a close loss in a game they had a chance to win (vs. New Jersey), and that defeat was their fifth in a row with the other four losses all coming by double-digits. Bobcats shooting under 40% in four of those five games, and no reason to think that streak will end here against Orlando who has won 9 of their last 12 overall. Magic win big!
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT +210/+5½ over L.A. Lakers
The Lakers and specifically Kobe Bryant have won championships, various playoff series, some dramatic game sevens and more. What they have not done is beat the Heat since LeBron and Chris Bosh joined forces with D-Wade. Not only had the Lakers not defeated the Heat but each Miami win was more decisive than the last, with all being nationally televised. That all changed Sunday. Kobe wanted that one as much as any game he’s played in recently and the Lakers came through. The intensity level for that game was at its highest level and now the Lakers will come down from that high and travel to play at the cavernous Palace of Auburn Hills. With three wins in a row and a giant sense of satisfaction, the Lakers motivation here has to be in question. After much of the sports world watched that game, the Lakers stock soared resulting is an inflated line in a hugely vulnerable spot for what should be a semi-focused guest. Play: Detroit +5½ (Risking 1.02 units to win 1).
Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks -2
The Dallas Mavericks are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as a mere 2-point home favorite over the New York Knicks. Hungry for a win after a tough loss at Oklahoma City last night, I like the Mavericks to get the job done Tuesday.
New York is a over-hyped right now due to Linsanity. This is a better team with him, but they have no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers against the defending champions. New York did beat Dallas at home 104-97 roughly two weeks ago, but that's only going to add more fuel to the fire for the Mavericks as they'll want revenge.
The Mavericks are 14-7 at home this season where they are only giving up 91.1 points/game on 41.6 percent shooting. The Mavs are 17-3 in their last 20 meetings with the Knicks and 10-2 in their last 12 meetings as well. As you can see, New York's victory in February was a rarity in this series.
Dallas is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic division foes. The Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. New York is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Mavericks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 meetings with the Knicks. Bet Dallas Tuesday.
Jeff Alexander
New Jersey Nets +14
The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 11.0 points or more while the Nets are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more. Also, the Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Miami. The knee-jerk reaction might be to take Miami following back-to-back losses, but the Nets have played the Heat to within 14 points or less each of the last 3 meetings and the Heat are 1-10 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons, only winning these games by an average of 3.5 points.
Dave Price
Dallas Mavericks -1.5
I'll back the Mavs in this revenge spot. The reigning NBA champs lost by 7 in NY on Feb. 19, but I like them to have their revenge at home where they have won 10 of the last 11 in this series. The Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Mavs.
ROCKETMAN
Pittsburgh @ St John's
Play: Pittsburgh -5.5
Pittsburgh comes in with a 16-15 record on the season while St. John's is 13-18 overall this year. Pittsburgh was expected to do much better this season but it has been very disappointing for them. St John's is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS last 3 years when playing with revenge of a 20 point blowout loss or more. St John's is 1-5 ATS this year revenging a road loss vs an opponent. Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Red Storm are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win. Panthers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Pittsburgh today!
Freddy Wills
Villanova vs. Rutgers
Play: Villanova -2
Nova to me has more going with the combination of Yarou and Maalik Wayns. Rutgers will bring the intensity early but Nova is well coached and know they nearly blew a game vs. this same Rutgers team after getting up early. Nova has had issues turning the ball over due to changes in the line ups but have gotten better control over that of late and guess what Rutgers turns the ball over more. Nova should be able to avoid their most glaring weakness 3point % defense since Rutgers is only shooting 27.8% of their attempts from beyond the arch.
Jimmy Boyd
Houston Rockets +4.5
Houston has what it takes to take Boston down to the wire tonight. The Celtics have won 4 in a row, but 3 of those wins came against some of the weaker teams in the East (Cleveland, Milwaukee, New Jersey). The Rockets have dropped 3 straight, but those losses came to legit playoff contenders in the West (Utah, Denver LA Clippers).
Houston has had Boston's number. The Rockets have won 3 straight against the Celtics with 2 of those wins coming at the Garden. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Boston and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall. The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, and the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The Celtics are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Western Conference. They are also 1-11 ATS in home games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Eastern Conference and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. the NBA Atlantic. Take the points.
Larry Ness
La Salle -5.5
The 10th-seeded Richmond comes to Philadelphia to challenge La Salle in first-round action of the 2012 Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. This is NOT the Richmond team of last year which ended 29 with wins, including a Sweet 16 appearance. This year's Spiders enter the conference tourney 16-15 overall, including just 7-9 in A-10 play (just the No. 10 seed). In comparison, LaSalle has had an impressive season. Last year's team went a disappointing 15-18, despite the 6-10 Murray (15.2-7.7), the 6-8 Williams 913.8-7.4) and swingman Guillandeaux (12.6), who are all gone TY plus guards Pettis (15.2-4.0) and Duren (13.6-3.5), who are back TY. Led by Pettis and Duren, plus fellow guards Galloway (14.1-4.6-3.3) and Mills (10.9), the Explorers are 20-11, including 9-7 in the A-10 play. That mark tied LaSalle with three others for fifth place in the A-10 but the Explorers got the seventh-seed. LaSalle's fifth starter is 6-8 freshman Wright (9.7-5.8) with the 6-8 White (5.7-4.8) being the only other notable contributor. Richmond gets double-digit scoring efforts from four different players, led by guards Darien Brothers (14.0), Kendall Anthony (13.4), and Cedrick Lindsay (11.0-3.7 APG). The 6-6 Derrick Williams (11.1-5.5) is the fourth double digit scorer, joined up front by the 6-6 Martel (5.1-3.5) and the 6-9 Garrett (4.5-6.5). La Salle has had one of its best seasons in recent memory and has gone 13-2 SU (8-1-1 ATS) at home. Meanwhile, Richmond's talent level is way off from LY's team and is only 4-10 SU on the road, including 2-6 in A-10 play, losing those six games by an average of 11.5 PPG. However, Richmond is more tournament tested, which is why I'm making LaSalle a small play.