Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, March 8,2011

Marc Lawrence

Princeton at Pennsylvania
Prediction: Princeton

When the Tigers meet the Quakers in Pennsylvania this evening they will look to meet Harvard in a playoff game for an automatic NCAA tournament berth with a win here tonight. A loss and the Tigers will head home with their tails dragging on the ground. With Penn 0-5 ATS in Last Home Games the last five seasons and Princeton 4-0 ATS as a favorite of four or less points and 3-0 ATS in games off a SU and ATS loss this season, look for the Tigers to set up the playoff game here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Princeton.

Matt Fargo

Northern Arizona vs. Northern Colorado
Play: Northern Colorado -4.5

Northern Colorado won the Big Sky regular season championship and with that comes hosting the conference tournament which is obviously a huge advantage. The Bears ended up 13-3 in the conference with all three losses coming on the road at Weber St., Montana and Northern Arizona, all of which happen to still be alive in the tournament. They were able to get their revenge on the Lumberjacks already as they won by a point 10 days ago. That result actually helps us here as it keep this line fairly reasonable. Northern Arizona won its first round game at home by just three points over Montana St. The Lumberjacks took advantage of 18 turnovers and that ended being the difference as they were outshot 47.9 percent to 39.1 percent. Northern Arizona hits the road again where it is 6-10 on the season including a 2-6 record in Big Sky road games. They have not played on the road since the last meeting in Greeley and while motivation will be high, we can expect it even higher on the other side. The Bears have never been to the NCAA Tournament as they have been in Division I for only four years to their rapid rise to the top is something special. On the season, Northern Colorado is 12-0 at home and outscoring opponents by 19.1 ppg. Of their eight conference home games, seven were won by double-digits with the only exception being against Northern Arizona so that is no doubt going to get their attention this time around. The Bears are 4-0 against the Lumberjacks at home since joining the conference. The Bears fall into a solid situation as well. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 after a cover as a double digit favorite, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .800. This situation is 65-33 ATS (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Coming off a big win has not been an issue in the past for Northern Colorado as it is 4-0 ATS in its last four games coming off a win by 20 or more points while Northern Arizona is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games after covering four or five of their last six games. 3* Northern Colorado Bears

Cajun Sports

Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green
Play: Northern Illinois +8

This is a first-round Mid-American Conference contest with Northern Illinois traveling to face Bowling Green on Tuesday night with tipoff set for 7:00PM EST. These two teams met early in February at Northern Illinois with Bowling Green pulling out the 73 to 70 win as a one-point road underdog. Northern Illinois is just 3-12 SU on the road this season but they are a solid 11-3 ATS in those contests. Bowling Green is 9-5 SU at home this season but only 5-7 against the spread. A closer look we see Bowling Green just stopped the bleeding with a win over Buffalo 73 to 63 after suffering through six straight losses. They are 2-11-1 ATS coming off a home win in this price range. When facing a conference opponent off a straight up win they are just 8-21-1 ATS including 2-14-1 if the win came at home. If Bowling Green is coming off a SU and ATS home win and now face a conference opponent in this price range, they are perfect at 0-10 ATS. Northern Illinois is 7-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents this season. NIU is 6-0 ATS in road games after having won two of their last three games the last 2 seasons. Northern Illinois will be looking to advance as well as redeem themselves for their loss at home to this Falcons team. The Huskies have a bit of history on their side, as they are 7-1 against the spread on the road revenging a loss. Take the generous points here as the Huskies shock the Falcons and advance to the next round.

Jim Feist

Rockets / Kings
Pick: Rockets

The Houston Rockets are not dead in the west yet. It didn't look good for Houston though before winning six of its last seven games. Still, the Rockets find themselves three games back of Memphis in the west for the final playoff spot. But if their recent play is any indication, the Rockets are going to be a force to reckon with down the stretch. The Rockets are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games and 4-1 ATS their last five. The road hasn't been too bad either, as the Rockets are 6-2 ATS their last eight away games. Meanwhile the Sacramento Kings are trying to stay out of the west cellar, leading last place Minnesota by just two games. The Kings have won just three of their last 15 games. The road team has done well in this series, going 20-7 ATS the last 27 games. The Rockets are 9-4 ATS their last 13 trips to Sacramento. I'll be taking the road team here on Monday as the Rockets look to make a big push for that final playoff spot.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat

Portland is off an outright win last night in Orlando and if you want to keep betting the Heat, then be our guest. Miami has lost four in a row overall and six in a row ATS and is just 4-14 ATS off a SU loss this season. Furthermore, they are just 1-8 ATS at home off a loss by six points or less. Portland is 11-2 ATS on the road revenging a home loss. Too many points to be laying here.

Play on: Portland

Frank Jordan

Rutgers vs. Seton Hall
Play: Rutgers +3.5

Rutgers had a decent year that started well and played some of the better Big East teams tough, but they are under .500 and finished poor in Big East play so would need to win a game or two to get into the NIT. A little under a month ago these two teams played to a fairly close game with Seton Hall winning by 5, but back in January these two teams played at Seton Hall and Rutgers won by 6. So this game should be around a 5 or 6 point game and with each team winning on the road and this game being a neutral site game they share the advantage, but in the end look for Rutgers to play smart basketball and advance to the next round. Play Rutgers

Rob Vinciletti

Princeton vs. Pennsylvania
Play: Princeton -2

Princeton is a terrific 15-2 vs losing teams and 10-1 ats when the total is 120 to 130 in their road games. When they are a road favorite of 3 or less they have won and covered 4 of 5 times. Pennsylvania is 5-10 vs winning teams and 1-5 vs teams who allow 64 or less points per game. When they are a home dog of 3 or less they are 1-7 straight up and against the spread. Princeton has taken 4 of the last 5 in the series and will our selection here tonight.

Ray Monohan

South Florida vs. Villanova
Play: Villanova -9½

First round of the 2011 Big East Conference championship on Tuesday evening. We get the USF Bulls matching up against the Villanova Wildcats. The oddsmakers favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Bulls are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings vs Nova. The Wildcats have looked awful down the stretch, but the Bulls just don’t have the talent to beat the top-tier teams in the Big East. These teams met earlier this year and Nova dismissed the Bulls 83-71 at the start of conference play. The Wildcats (21-10, 9-9) crashed to a No.10 seed by losing their last four of the regular season, falling 60-50 at Pitt in their finale. The only thing the Bulls proved in the regular season is they’re better than last-place DePaul. I look for Villanova to get their post-season off to a NICE start on Tuesday though, as they will get the best out of their top players at this point of the season. Trends I like in this one include the Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The winner meets No. 7 Cincinnati in the second round Wednesday night. No brainer here. Go with Villanova.

EZWINNERS

Los Angeles Lakers -4.5

The Los Angeles Lakers stumbled into the All-Star break on a three-game losing streak but have returned to their championship form since the break. A shocking 104-99 defeat at Cleveland on February 16th was Los Angeles' third straight loss at the time and left the two-time defending champions with a sour taste in their mouth heading into the break. The Lakers bounced back with a 104-80 victory over Atlanta on February 22nd, and have not lost a game since. A win in this game would give LA their longest streak since opening 8-0. The Hawks kicked off a stretch of ten out of eleven games at home by beating Chicago 83-80 on Wednesday, but they've lost their last two games. Atlanta allowed Oklahoma City to shoot 50.6 percent in a 111-104 loss Friday, then turned the ball over 21 times while falling 92-79 to New York on Sunday. Atlanta is just 2-9 against the spread in their last eleven games against the Western Conference. Lay the points.

Scott Spreitzer

Saint Louis @ Rhode Island
PICK: Saint Louis +4

Rhode Island has been a serious bankroll buster when it comes to the situation they're in tonight. The Rams are on a 6-20 ATS slide at home against teams with a win percentage between .200 and .400. I expect the trend to contiue in this one. Saint Louis began the season an extremely young team, but they have grown over the course of the season, paying off down the stretch. Rick Majerus' troops went 4-1 SU to end the regular season with three of the four wins coming by double-digits. In fact, their only loss in the five games came against 18th ranked Xavier. Including the loss, the Billikens have allowed just 55.2 ppg in their last five outings. That's a seven point improvement over their overall ppg allowed seasonal average, which was 38th best in the nation. URI blew a chance for a bye in opening day action by losing their last two games of the season to George Washington and St. Bonaventure. In fact, they have dropped three of their last five, including two straight home games. Saint Louis gave the Rams all they could handle in a 59-57 URI win in January. That game came in the middle of SLU's 3-12 SU slide. The team is playing much better basketball at this point of the season and I'm grabbing the points with Saint Louis on Tuesday.

Tony Karpinski

Houston Rockets vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Houston Rockets +5.5

The Phoenix Suns and Houston Rockets have each made strides toward contending for a Western Conference playoff berth, but both teams have plenty of work left. Phoenix lost for only the fifth time in 17 games and second time on a season-high, six-game road trip with Sunday's 122-118 overtime defeat to Oklahoma City. That loss, though, was painful in more than just the standings as Frye dislocated his right shoulder in the fourth quarter after pulling down a career-high 15 rebounds. The forward/center, who hit two game-winning shots on the trip, is expected to miss two to three weeks and the Suns will surely miss him.

Frye, was averaging 12.3 points and a career-high 6.6 rebounds this season, was one of seven players to score in double figures during a 123-116 victory in Houston on Nov. 22.

Houston, however, enters this matchup having won seven of eight while averaging 110.9 points. The Rockets will hang within the number against the Suns, and the underdog outright win would not surprise me.

Craig Trapp

Providence vs. Marquette
Play: Under 154.5

Conference tournament games can be tough predicting totals but Craig loves this one. MARQ can score in bunches but they need to play more bench to conserve energy for tomorrows game. PROV has not totaled over 150 in a game the last three games as teams have realized if you make them play slow they can't win. MARQ is a well coached team that won't be in any hurry as they need to save strength for WED game.

Tom Freese

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +1½

Indiana is 27-35 straight up this year. The Pacers are 2-5 ATS thwir last 7 games overall. Indiana is 3-9 ATS when playing with two days of rest. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS their last 5 home games and they are 2-6 ATS their last 8 games as home favorites 0.5 to 4.5 points. Philadelphia is 32-30 straight up this year. The Sixers are 6-1 ATS their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. Philadelphia is 22-8-2 ATS when playing with one day of rest. The Sixers are 7-3 ATS their last 10 road games. The Sixers are 21-10 ATS their last 32 games off an ATS WIN!

Info Plays

3* Hawks +5.5

Reasons why Hawks will cover:

1) The Hawks come into this game having lost two straight at home, and will be more than motivated to bring their best to the court tonight against the defending champs. At the same time we think the Lakers will struggle to bring it all tonight, as they have a matchup with the Heat this Thursday.

2) The Hawks will also have revenge on their mind, as they lost by 24-points at Los Angeles back on Feb. 22. Atlanta is 88-58 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more since 1996, and 11-2 ATS in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.

3) Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, where the home team is a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games. It's 41-16 since 1996.