David Chan
Portland @ Miami
PICK: Miami -8.5
I bet value where I see it and believe the Miami Heat will finally get the elusive victory they've been striving for vs. an above .500 team this evening.
Portland has been on a bit of a tear of late and is coming off an impressive 89-85 road win over the Orlando Magic last night; important to take note though that Dwight Howard was not in the lineup, serving a one game suspension.
The last time these teams met, the Heat held the 'Blazers to just 41.8 percent shooting as LeBron James scored 44 points and Dwayne Wade added 34 in a 107-100 overtime victory at the Rose Garden (and note that Portland is just 15-17 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams that score 99+ points per contest).
Miami's struggles are well documented; all of that aside, I believe this team will get back on track tonight with a big effort; this team is just too talented to be held down for long; I expect the organization to have its super stars ready to play tonight (and note that Miami is 12-9 ATS this year in non-conference games).
A highly motivated home side gets the job done; you may want to consider a second look at the MIAMI HEAT tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +104 over PITTSBURGH
There’s so much to like about the Sabres here. First, the Penguins return home from a five-game trip and that’s never easy. Secondly, the last four games of the trip all went into OT and that, too, takes a toll. In fact, seven of the Penguins last nine games have all gone into OT and this team hasn’t won a game in regulation since they lost Evgeni Malkin 14 games ago. In other words, they could be on a 14-game losing streak had they lost all those OT games (just sayin’). Since switching ownership, the Sabres have not lost in regulation and that streak now stands at seven games. Buffalo has also won six of its last seven road games and picked up points in all seven. There’s really not a single reason to not back the pooch here. The Sabres have run into some injuries recently and they’ll be without Patrick Kaleta, Jochen Hecht and Mike Grier but the Penguins list of injuries is much longer and much more damaging. Play: Buffalo +104 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +188 over MINNESOTA
The Av’s are reeling, that’s for sure. They have one win in their last 16 games but let’s not forget that they were fourth in the conference not long ago. These two usually play close games and in five games this season the Wild hold a slim 3-32 margin. The Av’s are coming off an ugly 5-1 loss against Edmonton. It was the second 5-1 loss to the Oilers in two weeks and that’s just the jolt the Av’s needed. Prior to that second loss to the Oilers the Av’s played three straight games at L.A., Anaheim and San Jose and lost them all by a single goal, the latter in OT. That alone tells us they can have not quit competing. The real kicker here, however, is the tag. The Minnesota Wild should not be favored by this much over anyone, period. They rarely outplay anyone and it’s not like they’re going good right now. The Wild have two wins in their last six games and one of them was in OT in Anaheim they had no business winning. Minnesota struggles to score goals and without Mikko Koivu you can double that. Koivu’s linemates, Andrew Brunette and Antti Miettinen have not scored a goal in 11 and 12 games respectively. So yeah, the Wild can win here but there’s way more pressure on them to do so and they’re just not that good. Throw in this sweet tag on an Av’s team that would love to make life miserable for this rival and what you have is a value bet that has a very good chance of cashing. Play: Colorado +188 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Rutgers +4 over Seton Hall
The Pirates stock has really shot up the past two weeks with two big wins over the then hottest team in the Big East, the Johnny’s and they subsequently beat desperate and talented Marquette team this past Saturday. Those two attention-grabbing wins have the Pirates overpriced despite the fact that they’re just a small favorite. After knocking off that duo, the Pirates take a big step down in class when facing the Scarlet Knights so the question becomes why are they such a small favorite. The reason is because SHU is just not that good. They’ve been wildly inconsistent all season long and have not put forth back-to-back-to-back strong efforts all season long and that includes their non-conference schedule. Geographically, neither team has an edge, as both schools are in New Jersey and both will make the very short trip to MSG. Rutgers isn’t much, that’s for sure. They’re a frustrating team to wager on because of a lack of scoring that results in missed bunnies and prolonged losing streaks. Having said that, they can compete with the Pirates and they can beat them too. They had a lot of close misses late this season that includes a four-point OT loss at Syracuse, a two-point loss at St. John’s in this building, a win in Villanova and a three-point loss to the Panthers. This is a classic case of selling high on the Pirates and that’s precisely what we’re doing. Play: Rutgers +4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
MASSACHUSETTS +118 over Dayton
The Dayton Flyers have talent, however, something has been missing from this guest all season long and there’s not a light switch in the world that can turn it on. Half the time the team doesn’t show up. They’ve had a whole slew of ugly losses this season that includes a five-point home loss against East Tennessee St and a 34-point point loss at Cinci among others. The only teams they’ve been able to put away early were the two A-10 bottom feeders, Fordham and Charlotte. They played at UMass on Jan 9 and lost by five, scoring just 50 points in the contest. The total here is 126, which is a strong indication that this, too, is going to be a low scoring game and that’s because the Flyers are one of the worst shooting teams in the nation with an ugly .403 FG percentage. It’s simply bad strategy to lay points on the road with a team that can’t hit a shot. The Minutemen is a dog at home because they lost their last game of the regulkar season at Fordham, a team that was previously 0-14 in the conference and had lost 41 conference games in a row. Incredible. Thing is, the game meant squat to UMass and it’s difficult to get up for a game against a team like that with the conference tourney on deck three days later. UMass can’t score either. In fact, one could argue that these two are mirror images of one another but the difference is that the Minutemen are at home and they’re very likely to be the team that wants it more. Play: Massachusetts +112 (Risking 2 units).
Rocketman
Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers +4
Golden State is allowing 107.7 points per game on the road this year. Golden State has lost 6 of their last 7 games overall. Cleveland is 11-3 SU at home vs Golden State since 1996. Warriors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference. Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Warriors are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Central. Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Cavaliers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Cavaliers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. Cavaliers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Cavaliers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference. Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Cleveland tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Indiana Pacers -1
Motivated by 3 straight road defeats and with 2 full days to gear up for this one, expect the Pacers to get back in the win column on their home floor tonight. Philly is playing well, but we can't forget that it has been doming the majority of its damage at home. The 76ers are just 11-20 on the road this season. Plus, they have had their share of troubles against Indy. The Pacers have won 2 of 3 meetings this season and 4 of the last 5 overall. Going to the history books, we find that plays on any team coming off 3 or more consecutive road losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, are a tremendous 72-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, Indy is 22-10 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 105.1 to 101.2. Take the Pacers at home in this motivated spot.
Sean Murphy
Philadelphia @ Indiana
Pick: Philadelphia +1.5
The Pacers have taken two of three meetings from the 76ers this season, so you can be sure that Doug Collins will have his team ready on Tuesday night.
Indiana started the Frank Vogel era like a team possessed, winning seven of its first eight games. The bloom has since come off the rose, however, as the Pacers have now dropped seven of their last 10 games overall.
Their home-court advantage has been virtually non-existent over that stretch, as they've gone 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS.
The Pacers went into Philadelphia and walked away with a 111-103 victory back on January 11th. They couldn't have played any better in that game, shooting better than 51% overall, including 50% from three-point range, while hitting all 11 of their free throw attempts. They also recorded 29 assists in the game - to put it simply, everything clicked.
We can't expect a repeat performance tonight. In the first two matchups between these teams this season, the 76ers held the Pacers to a combined 65-for-178 (36.5%) shooting. Indiana certainly doesn't bring its best form to the table tonight, having shot just 42.3% over its last five contests.
The 76ers have struggled on the road this season, going 11-20 SU, but they're actually 19-11-1 ATS, and have won six of their last eight away from home. Their lone loss over their last seven games came at the hands of the Mavericks last Tuesday - one of the hottest teams in the league.
This is an extremely tough scheduling spot for the Pacers, as they return home following an unsuccessful three-game trip in the midwest, before hitting the road for another three-game trip beginning tomorrow night in Minnesota.
At 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games, the Pacers are a play-against team in the favorite role right now. Note that the underdog is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. Take Philadelphia.
BIG AL
Butler @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee
PICK: Wisconsin-Milwaukee +3
To say that the Panthers have the Bulldogs' number would be an understatement. Wisconsin Milwaukee won both meetings this season, even though it was a double-digit underdog in each game. And it has covered six straight overall in the series. For its success this season, Milwaukee earned the top seed in the Horizon League Tournament, and thus plays tonight’s game on its home court at U.S. Cellular Arena. I won’t fade a team playing a conference tourney game on its home court, unless I have a very good reason. And, here, I don’t. Admittedly, Butler is playing this game with double-revenge, but .700 (or better) teams are an awful 38-62 ATS in the Conference Tourneys after losing both regular-season meetings. Milwaukee is 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS in Horizon League games this season, while Butler is just 7-11-1 ATS. Take the Panthers.
Black Widow
1* on Oakland -5
Oakland is the real deal this season and fully capable of competing with just about anyone in the country. Once they win the Summit League Tournament tonight with a win over Oral Roberts in the title game, they'll have a chance to prove it in the Big Dance. Oakland is 24-9 on the season while Oral Roberts is 19-14. Oakland is now 17-1 in their last 18 games overall, winning 15 times by seven points or more. This is the same team that won at Tennessee 89-82 and gave Michigan State a run for their money, eventually losing 76-77. Oakland is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a neutral court favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons and 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in conference tournament games over the last 3 seasons. Take Oakland and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Houston Rockets +4
Scola could miss the game for Houston, but it is a bigger deal that the Suns will be without Channing Frye, who has been on an absolute tear. Plus, Nash is banged up with a pelvis injury. Houston has won 7 of 8, and I like it to keep rolling against this banged up Suns team. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more and up against an opponent that has scored 100 points or more 3 straight games are 29-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. It is worth mentioning that this system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Lastly, the Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. Take the points.
Jack Jones
Portland Trail Blazers +8.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are showing excellent value tonight in Miami. Odds makers have once again inflated a Miami Heat line, thinking they are going to just magically turn it around. They haven't been able to beat winning teams all season, and I see no way they blow out a team like the Blazers tonight. Portland matches up very well with Miami because they are strong inside while the Heat's weakness is in the paint. Portland has reeled off three straight victories including two on the road. They are looking better and better with the addition of Gerald Wallace and the return of Marcus Camby and Brandon Roy.
These teams met once earlier this season, with Miami winning in overtime. I expect the Blazers to be out for revenge from that loss in a game they clearly had control of. Portland did not have Roy for that game and with him back it will make a big difference. The Blazers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Heat have lost four straight and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Miami is 10-19 ATS in all home games this season, including 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Blazers Tuesday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Butler -3
After falling to Wisconsin-Milwaukee twice during the regular season, expect the reigning national runner-ups to have their revenge in the Horizon League title game. Butler is rolling, having won 8 in a row. Plus, the Bulldogs are an impressive 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Lay the points.
Lenny Del Genio
St. Louis at Rhode Island
Prediction: St. Louis
Rhode Island typically gags this time of year so it should come as no suprise that they enter off BB SU defeats at the hands of GW and St Bonaventure, losing both games by double digits. Meanwhile, HC Majerus seems to get the most out of St. Louis this time of year and his Billikens had won four straight before a very excusable loss to Xavier in the regular season finale. St. Louis is a perfect 8-0 ATS if they were a dog in each of their previous three games while the Rhodies are just 8-17 ATS as home chalk. Take St. Louis.