Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday May, 1

Marc Lawrence

New York Mets at Houston Astros
Prediction: New York Mets

When the Mets send Jonathon Niese to the mound against J. A. Happ and the Rockies Tuesday night New York will take the field knowing Neise is in great KW form with 16 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts. Niese is also 4-1 in his last five team starts during May and 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in this park in his MLB career. With Happ in struggling current form and 3-5 in his career teams starts against the Mets, look for a rocky effort by Colorado here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Rob Vinciletti

Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

Boston is 11-0 as a home favorite of -110 or more vs an opponent with a better record and has the #1 home scoring offense and number one home era in the league. They blasted Oakland last night as out late phone blowout play. They are 8-3 in night games and averaging 6.5 runs in thee games. They have taken 8 of the last 10 here vs Oakland. The Athletics will see Doubront here tonight who has improved in his last 2 starts allowing 4 runs in 12 innings. Oakland has been anemic vs leftys averaging just 3 runs per game on .184 hitting. Its no wonder they are near the bottom once again in scoring offense. Tonight they will have Jarrod Parker making his 2nd start. Much like last night with Milone, he is likely to struggle here at Fenway. Look for Boston to take another from Oakland.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies send Cole Hammels to the mound on Tuesday, taking on the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. Hammels has been lights out in his last three starts, with an ERA of just 2.14 and three straight victories. During his last appearance on Wednesday versus Arizona, he had at one stage retired 18 batters consecutively, and finished the 7-2 win, allowing just two runs and four hits in eight innings.

Hammels has beaten the Braves more times than any other team, going back to 2007. He had impressive numbers against the Braves last season as well, going 2-1 with an ERA of 2.57. The Phillies lineup also has excellent numbers against this Braves team, with Shane Victorino hitting 3.77, and Carlos Ruiz hitting 3.04 with nine RBIs last season. Ruiz has also been very successful going against Braves starter Brandon Beachy (who he will face Tuesday), going 5 for 8 with a homer and two doubles.

Beachy has pitched well for Atlanta, although he is coming off a relatively shaky appearance where he gave up seven hits in a no decision against the Dodgers. Beachy lost all four of his starts versus the Phillies last year, and the more stats I look at, the more convinced I am that this trend will undoubtedly continue.

To top it all off, Dan Uggla is batting 1.60 with 15 strikeouts in 50 at bats against Hammels, wow thats Uggla!

Sean “Paddy” Murphy

New York Mets @ Houston Astros
PICK: New York Mets

I'm thankful that Astros starter J.A. Happ hasn't been 'that bad' this season, as it allows us to step in and fade him at a very reasonable price on Tuesday night.

Make no mistake, Happ is still a bottom-tier starter despite his mediocre 1-1 record and 4.70 ERA. Early in his career, he was able to fool hitters with average stuff, but the jury was still out when he was dealt from the Phillies to the Astros, and last year, he ran into a brick wall, going 6-15 with a 5.35 ERA.

He's been so-so this season, but keep in mind, he's been in the right place at the right time more often than not, running into some slumping offenses.

That's not the case tonight, as the Mets have scored 25 runs in the first four games of their current road trip. They had plenty of success against Happ last season, scoring eight earned runs off of him in 10 2/3 innings.

Jon Niese continues to fly well beneath the radar for the Mets, but he's been their most consistent starter this season, going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. I really like the poise he's shown on the mound - since issuing four walks in his first start of the season, he's handed out only three free passes in his last three outings. He's actually been one of the toughest pitchers to hit in all of baseball, allowing just 18 hits in 25 2/3 innings of work.

The Astros have had a bit of success recently, but they're still one of the weakest teams in baseball. With only nine runs on 22 hits in their last three games, they've cooled off considerably at the plate, and I don't think they'll have enough to knock Niese off track on Tuesday.

Freddy Wills

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

I'm going with Cole Hamels in this match up as the Braves who have been decent this year vs. LHP were just terrible a year ago. Hamels has the advantage compared with Brandon Beachy and posts a 1.93 ERA on the road this year. While Beachy has a 1.05 ERA it's Hamels who posts much better numbers with bad luck and I'm not talking about the offense that supports him which has been better of late scoring 4.86 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 5 games while the Braves are starting to go cold hitting just .180 vs. LHP over their last 5. Phillies have 79 AB .278 average and a .777 OPS vs. Beachy.

As I mentioned Hamels raw numbers are much better as he posts 10.25 K/9 & 1.03 BB/9 compared to Beachy who is at 7.01 K/9 & 2.45 BB/9. Hamels .333 BABIP has been extremely unlucky and he still has a 2.73 ERA while his xFIP is at 2.25 much better than Beachy's 3.63 xFIP. Braves are 2-9 in their last 11 s. NL East and 0-6 vs. the Phillies with Beachy on the mound. For whatever reason the Phillies seem to step it up against good home teams as they are 22-4 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record of over 60%.

Notable Hot Starters:
Jordan Zimmerman (3-0, 0.65 WHIP, 1.35 ERA)
Neftali Feliz (2-1, 1.00 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)
Brandon Beachy (3-0, 0.87 WHIP, 0.87 ERA)
Bronson Arroyo (2-1, 0.93 WHIP, 1.77 ERA)
Jonathan Niese (2-1, 0.97 WHIP, 2.29 ERA)
Charlie Morton (1-2, 1.24 WHIP, 2.65 ERA)
Ted Lilly (2-1, 0.85 WHIP, 0.90 ERA)
Matt Cain (2-1, 0.45 WHIP, 1.11 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
The cold starter with the best chance to win for me has to be Rick Porcello at -159. Not the best odds, but despite his 8.22 ERA over his last 3 starts he goes up against the Royals who he has held in check in his career. Royals have 153 AB, a .261 average and just a .656 OPS. While the Royals start Jonathan Sanchez has a 2.27 WHIP over his last 3 starts and has been awful since coming to the American League. The Tigers bats have been cold but they have proven to be one of the better hitting teams vs. lefties in recent years. They have 83 AB with a .263 average and .850 OPS vs. Sanchez.

Notable Cold Starters:
Johnathan Sanchez (0-3, 2.27 WHIP, 8.03 ERA)
Adam Wainwright (0-3, 1.71 WHIP, 8.36 ERA)
Francisco Liriano (1-2, 2.27 WHIP, 10.95 ERA)

Dave Cokin

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Chicago Cubs

Bronson Arroyo might be ready to start fading following his surprising April. The indicators off his last start suggest the regression is about ready to begin. Jeff Samardzija has not been good away from Wrigley, but I'll back him and the Cubs at the generous dog number tonight.

Jim Feist

Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants
Pick: Miami Marlins

San Francisco has an average offense, at best, and faces Miami's Ricky Nolasco, who has thrown well with a 2-0 record and a 3.20 ERA. He has dominated the Giants in his career with a 1.61 ERA in 44+ innings against them, walking 8 and fanning 34. The Marlins are 5-1 in Nolasco's last 6 starts during game 1 of a series and 10-1 in Nolasco's last 11 Tuesday starts. The Giants are 8-19 in their last 27 during game 1 of a series, including 2-6 in Matt Cains last 8 starts during game 1 of a series. Play the Marlins.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets -129 over HOUSTON

J.A. Happ has spent the past two seasons fighting off injury and poor performances in hopes of regaining the effectiveness of 2009, when as a rookie he was a part of the Phillies’ World Series run. But a rising flyball % creates a rising hr/fly rate which creates a rising ERA. It's that simple. Happ has already been tagged for four jacks in 23 innings over four starts. His poor control has not shown up in the walk department yet with just nine in 24 innings but he’s throwing a lot of pitches (103 in his last game in 5 innings), which suggests he’s throwing a lot of balls and deep into counts. Happ is a fourth or fifth starter and will face the Mets quiet ace, Jonathan Niese. Niese is improving each year and with each start. A high groundball rate (51%) combined with a high strikeout rate combined with a low walk total is all the ingredients for success. Niese is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA and he’s likely to stay around that mark all season. Also note that the Astros are 1-4 against southpaws and that’s unlikely to improve against this tough lefty. Play: N.Y. Mets -129 (Risking 2 units to win 1.55).

Arizona +130 over WASHINGTON

The Diamondbacks have picked it up lately with three wins in their past four after a rough start to the year. The slow start can largely be blamed on their bullpen, a unit that couldn’t record outs for the first 15 games and compiled an ERA near 8. However, the Snakes have played 16 of their 22 games at extreme hitter’s parks (13 at home and three at Coors) so don’t put too much weight into it. Trevor Cahill’s surface stats suggest he’s struggling but his skills say otherwise. It begins with an outstanding 59% groundball rate. In his two road starts at Colorado and San Diego, Cahill went a combined 13.1 innings and allowed six hits and two runs. His xERA trend has been decreasing for three years running. His skills strongly suggest to stick with him. Jordan Zimmerman is another solid starter in the Nationals’ rotation. Zimmermann's now sitting on a 1.33 ERA and 0.70 WHIP through four starts, unsustainable numbers for sure but representative of the massive talent in that right arm of his. The problem is run support from a Nationals team that has dropped four in a row and is batting .180 over that span. When a team is struggling at the plate, they are too risky to be spotting a tag against a hot team and that’s precisely the case here. Play: Arizona +130 (Risking 2 units).

David Banks

Denver Nuggets +5

It must be playoff time, because like they seemingly do every season at this time of year, the Los Angeles Lakers (42-25, 29-38 ATS) turned up the heat in Game 1 of this first round series with the Denver Nuggets (38-29, 36-31 ATS). The game was not even as close as the 103-88 final score as the Lakers were on cruise control for most of the fourth quarter with the outcome never in doubt. Kobe Bryant showed no ill effects of his injured shin as he led the way with 31 points and Andrew Bynum had a unique triple-double with 10 points, 13 rebounds and an NBA Playoff record 10 blocked shots, becoming the first Laker to record a playoff triple-double since Magic Johnson. Los Angeles hopes to keep its momentum in Game 2, which is set for Tuesday night at 10:30 ET at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA. The game will be carried on TNT.

Granted, the Lakers were not as good as past seasons during the regular season, but most of their difficulties came on the road. They are now 27-7 straight up here at Staples combining the regular season and playoffs, winning those games by an average of +6.3 points. The problem for their supporters though is that they are usually favored by much more than that and that is the reason that they are just 17-17 against the spread in those games. However, they were only favored by 4 points in the Game 1 blowout and the line on Game 2 figures to be the same. LA was just 13-16 ATS as a home favorite during the regular season, but that record improved to 9-7 when favored by 4 points or less at Staples, a pattern that continued in Game 1. Of course it helped that the Lakers shot a blistering 50.0 percent from the field at 43-for-86 while limiting the Nuggets to a scant 35.6 percent shooting. Considering that the Lakers are shooting 45.7 percent for the season while allowing opponents to shoot 43.6 percent, do not expect those percentages to be duplicated on Tuesday.

Now, the reason for the small spread was that the Nuggets were a hot club entering the playoffs, ending the year on a four-game winning streak and going 11-4 straight up and 10-5 ATS in their final 15 games, Denver led the NBA in scoring with 104.1 points per game and the Nuggets' fast break and transition game are a joy to watch when they get going, which the Lakers did not allow to happen in the series opener. The problem for the Nuggets this season was that they often allowed points just as quickly as they scored them, ranking 29th out of 30 NBA teams by allowing 101.2 points per contest, with only the Sacramento Kings being worse (104.4). However, the Nuggets tightened up a bit defensively at year's end, allowing 97.6 points per game during that final 15-game stretch while actually increasing their scoring average to 106.0 points. This series is far from over if Denver can return to that form.

Game 1 did stay 'under' the posted total of 203 as the Lakers did an excellent job of forcing Denver into a half-court game, and that ran the 'under' to 35-17 in the last 52 head-to-head meetings between these teams including a perfect 7-0 in the last seven matchups. Those last seven meetings have averaged just 190.3 points, well below the posted total of 203 in Game 1, so keep an eye on what the number is here.

CHRIS JORDAN

My free winner for tonight is taking me to the Bay, as I'm playing the San Francisco Giants on the Run Line against the visiting Miami Marlins. I'm going against Ozzie Guillen's boys for a second-straight day, as I don't see his team being able to recover in a quick turnaround, after yesterday's season-finale against the Arizona Diamondbacks, which happened to be my 300♦ winner.

So think about it...

The Marlins get beat by a kid who made his MLB debut in their park, they lose 9-5 in front of the home crowd, they pack up and leave Miami, arrive in San Francisco and the very next night - at 1:05 a.m. Miami time, no less - have to face a Giants team that has won two straight and five of eight, and has climbed into second place in the National League West behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

And while the Fish come in a bit travel weary, the Giants just finished a three-game weekend set on Sunday against the Padres in San Francisco, where they're 6-3 this season. Miami, a disappointing 8-14 on the year, has lost two straight and eight of nine, and is 2-9 with a suitcase in hand.

By the way, I know Miami starter Ricky Nolasco has been stellar by the Bay - he's 3-0 with a 0.76 ERA in three lifetime starts at AT&T Park - but if the rest of his team doesn't show up, it'll do him no good. I'm not listing pitchers anyhow, as I think this one simply comes down to which team is performing better, and the travel factor.

Miami went 0-5 on its previous road trip, being swept in Washington and New York, and this nine-game road trip that includes stops in San Francisco, San Diego and Houston begins with a blowout loss.

3♦ SAN FRANCISCO -1.5

JEFF BENTON

Your Tuesday night freebie is the host Atlanta Hawks to make it 2-0 both straight up and against the spread in their best-of-seven series against the Boston Celtics.

The Atlanta Hawks could not ask for a better opportunity to take advantage of a Boston team that will be without starting point-guard Rajon Rondo who will be serving a one-game suspension for bumping into a referee during Sunday night's 83-74 loss.

Rondo's absence coupled with the ankle injury to Ray Allen means the Beantowners will be without two of their key weapons, and I do not feel they will be able to overcome the loss of those two key players.

Atlanta has been able to win and cover three of the last five versus Boston, and the Hawks have been a 75% play when listed as the five-points or less favorite with a 6-2-1 spread mark the past nine times in that situation.

The Celtics will do the best they can, but without Rondo and with Allen likely sitting this one out, the aging C's are just outmanned in this spot.

Take Atlanta as the small home favorite to make it a 2-0 lead both straight up and against the spread.

3♦ ATLANTA

SPORTS WAGERS

New Jersey/PHILADELPHIA Over 5½ +119

As long as the books keep offering us juice at this posted total, we’ll continue to play it that way. In game one, the contest went over this total with about nine minutes left in the third period but let’s not forget that one goal was scored in the first period in an early start on Sunday. Those early starts don’t have the same excitement level or feel as a night game and both teams were a little flat to begin. In game two, other than the preferred start time, nothing has changed. Both teams still possess numerous goal scorers and shaky goaltending. Expect a quicker pace tonight than the one we saw in game one and expect this one to go over the total earlier than the last one. Play: New Jersey/Philadelphia over 5½ +119 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Denver +6/+210 over L.A. LAKERS

The Lakers built a big lead in game one and cruised to an easy 15-point win. Now the entire betting world is coming back on them here and that’s usually a red flag. The Lakers won by owning the area around the rim and they received a productive night from Jordan Hill, who gave them a double-double. When Hill is unproductive, it can be a different story and after being charged with choking his girlfriend yesterday, his mind could be elsewhere. The Nuggets will be better tonight. Denver probably had the best overall bench this season, as it featured Al Harrington who became a consistent matchup problem for his defenders. Point guard Andre Miller was sensational while Corey Brewer is "instant defense" and Denver's best runner in transition. The Nuggets also have 7-foot centers in Kosta Koufos, JaVale McGee and Timofey Mozgov to muscle this opponent down low. Denver can pound the paint and defend the paint much better than they showed in game one. The Lakers were rested and ready for game one. Adjustments are made in game two and it’s not going to be as easy this time around for the home side Play: Denver +6 (Risking 1.1 units to win 1) Play: Denver +210 (Risking 1 unit).

Lenny Del Genio

Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox

Not buying Cleveland's 7-2 start on the road in the slightest. The Indians have already lost twice to the White Sox this season, allowing 14 runs total, and things don't figure to get much better tonight with the highly overrated Ubaldo Jimenez on the hill. Somehow, he's 2-0 on the road despite a 2.091 WHIP in those starts (that's really bad!). Last year, he posted a 1-3 TSR vs. this opponent. Chicago starter Chris Sale won one of the two games against the Indians earlier in the year, allowing just one run and three hits over nearly seven innings of work. Cleveland is 16-34 in double revenge situations since the start of last season.