Bryan Power
Denver @ L.A. Lakers
PICK: Over 200
The Nuggets were the highest scoring team in the league during the regular season and despite an 88-point effort in Game 1, they come into Game 2 averaging a very strong 104.6 PPG on the road. Defensively, however, they are not strong allowing 103.2 PPG on the road. Only one team in the league allowed more PPG this year then Denver and that was horrible Sacramento, who long ago it was decided that they would be home for May. This year, the Nuggets have gone Over 16 of 23 times in the underdog role, including 11 of 14 when taking six points or less away from home. The Lakers played Denver twice in April and scored 103 points on both occasions, shooting 50% from the floor. Despite getting this game at home, the refs may be against them here after Denver coach George Karl complained vehemently about Andrew Bynum getting away with illegal defense in Game 1.
Steve Janus
Chicago Bulls -6.5
A lot of people are counting out the Bulls after watching Derrick Rose tear his ACL in the final minutes of a Game 1 win. While I agree it hurts the Bulls chances of making the NBA Finals, I don't think it will stop them from advancing past the 76ers in the first round.
Chicago features one of the deepest benches in the NBA and I look for Watson and Lucas III to step up with a big time performance in Game 2. The focus of the Bulls is on defense and rebounding, two things Rose really doesn't factor in on. Chicago is actually better defensively when Rose isn't on the floor, which is why they went 19-8 without him in the lineup during the regular season.
The media has been all over Chicago since the injury to Rose, giving them no chance to do anything in the playoffs. That should only fuel the players who will be playing tonight. I look for the Bulls to come out and play as hard as they can on the defensive side of the ball, and win game two by double-digits.
The loss of Rose could also work in their favor, as the 76ers likely won't come in with the same level of intensity knowing Chicago is without their best player. You also have to remember just how bad Philadelphia was down the stretch. Even without Rose, Chicago is the more talented team in this matchup.
Kyle Hunter
Marlins at Giants
Play: Under 6
I'm usually not a fan of playing an 'under' with such a low number. However, this is a case where I see a very low scoring game. Ricky Nolasco has made three starts in San Francisco during his career. He has pitched 23 innings and allowed just 2 runs. Matt Cain has a 2.37 ERA this year, and his ERA is 1.11 in his last three games. Miami isn't hitting the ball well right now, and the Giants offense isn't strong. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. Take the under.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Mets -128
We'll fade the Astros, who are just 42-86 in their last 128 games, with Happ on the hill. The southpaw is carrying an ERA of 4.70 on the season and has a career 4.88 ERA versus the Mets. The Astros are 9-28 in Happ's last 37 starts and 6-14 in his last 20 home starts. The Mets are in much better hands with Niese, who is 2-0 with a 2.80 ERA. Plus, his ERA is just 1.80 lifetime versus the Astros. Houston, which is batting just .209 versus lefty starters this season, is 0-4 in its last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. We'll bet the Mets.
Jack Jones
Chicago Bulls -6.5
The Chicago Bulls will rally around one another tonight to make up for the loss of Derrick Rose. That is what they have done all season, so it's not like they aren't used to it. Chicago is fully capable of covering this small number in Game 2 against Philadelphia.
The Bulls were able to start their top five just 15 times this season because of injuries to Rose, Richard Hamilton and Luol Deng (torn ligament in his left wrist), yet they still tied San Antonio for the league's best record at 50-16. In games Rose missed, they went 18-9.
Two of Chicago's biggest strengths are defense and rebounding. They have been better at both when Rose hasn't been in the line-up. I'm not saying they are a better team without him, but they don't miss him as much as a lot of people think. They certainly should be a bigger favorite in Game 2 tonight.
The 76ers are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, including 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with Philadelphia. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.
MLB Predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers -101
The Rockies moved to .500 on the season (11-11) with a 6-2 win last night against the Dodgers. The loss brought the Dodgers to 16-7 on the season and 6-5 on the road. Tonight the Dodgers will have Ted Lilly on the mound. The southpaw is 2-0 on the season with a 0.90 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and .189 opponents batting average over his three starts. He has allowed just 9 hits over 20 innings of work and only 2 earned runs. Last year he went 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA against the Rockies, and will look to keep that going tonight. He will be facing Jhoulys Chacin who is 0-2 on the season with a 5.85 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and .256 opponents batting average over his 4 starts. He has lasted more than 5 innings just once and has given up 20 hits and 13 earned runs over 20 innings of work. Note that the Dodgers are hitting .247 against righties with a .331 on base percentage, while the Rockies are hitting just .227 against lefties with a .289 OBP. Also take note that the Dodgers are 41-17 in their last 58 overall, 15-6 in their last 21 games as a road underdog, and 7-2 in their last 9 vs NL West opponents. The Dodgers bounce back well from a loss going 10-2 in their last 12 games following a loss. Los Angeles is also 5-1 in Lilly's last 6 starts, and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win, and 1-9 in their last 10 home games vs a left handed starter. The Rockies are 5-15 in Chacin's last 20 starts overall, and 1-4 in his last 5 home starts. Lilly has been a the much better pitcher this season and has a 8-2 lifetime record against the Rockies and Colorado isn't hitting well against lefties. I'm on the Dodgers as small underdogs.
WUNDERDOG
Baltimore at New York
Pick: Under 10.5
The Baltimore Orioles have a lot more depth in their bullpen than in recent years, and their rotation is much stronger. Brian Matusz has not pitched well to start the 2012 season, but got things straightened out in his last start, allowing 0 runs. Despite the fact he hasn't pitched well, just one of his four starts resulted in 10+ runs, and that was 11. Last night was evidence of the bullpen's in action in a 2-1 New York win, as the pens allowed 1 hit and 0 runs in four innings combined. Matusz has been a momentum pitcher with the Orioles now 6-0 to the UNDER when he starts after a quality start in his previous time out. The Yankees have topped the total just six times in their last 22 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. The UNDER has prevailed to a 5-1-1 mark in the last seven meetings. Play the UNDER.
Vegas Experts
Denver at LA Lakers
Play: Denver
The Lakers looked very good in Game 1 of this best of seven series, winning 103-88 and easily covering the small number. We look for a strong bounce back performance from Denver tonight in Game 2 considering they were 22-11 ATS in road games during the regular season, not to mention 13-5 ATS when taking between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Los Angeles was a big money loser as a favorite, going 17-25 ATS laying points during the regular season.
Rocketman
LA Dodgers @ Colorado
Play: LA Dodgers +120
LA Dodgers head to Colorado to take on the Rockies on Tuesday night in Game Two of this 3 games series. Colorado took game one last night by a score of 6 to 2. LA Dodgers are scoring 5.4 runs per game vs division opponents this year. LA Dodgers are allowing only 3 runs per game their past seven games overall. Colorado is scoring only 3.5 runs per game vs left handed starters this year which includes a .215 team batting average. Colorado is allowing 5.8 runs per game at home this year and 5.7 runs per game at night this season. Ted Lilly takes the mound for the Dodgers where he is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA overall this year and 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA on the road this season. Chacin is 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA overall on the season for Colorado. Lilly is 8-2 overall in all starts vs Colorado in his career. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers tonight!
Teddy Covers
New York Mets @ Houston Astros
PICK: New York Mets
Houston took Game 1 of this series last night, turning five hits and two walks into four runs thanks to some solid clutch hitting. Don’t expect an Astros lineup that has produced three runs or less in half of their ten home games so far this season to have much success tonight against under-rated Mets hurler Jonathan Niese. The Astros are just 1-4 against lefties in five tries in 2012, hitting just .227 as a team against southpaws.
Niese has thrown four consecutive quality starts to open up the new campaign. He dominated the Astros on his last visit to Houston, throwing seven innings of one run ball. It was the exact same story in his previous start here at Minute Maid Park: seven innings of one run ball. The Mets were huge profit makers on the highway last year, earning an MLB best 17.6 units of profit for their 81 road games. And when we look at the ‘profitability’ standings so far in 2012, the Mets once again rank among the Top 5 teams in baseball – exactly the type of ‘under-the-radar’ ballclub with low expectations that I’m looking to support at every reasonable opportunity.
The Astros are 9-14 this year despite owning the best batting average in baseball with runners in scoring position – they’ve taken advantage of every opportunity, but they’re still playing sub .400 baseball. Don’t expect much success from starter JA Happ tonight. Happ has struggled throughout his career against this Mets lineup, including a 6.75 ERA in two starts against them last year. New York is the better team in the better spot with the better pitcher and the superior bullpen. Take New York.
Jeff Alexander
Boston Red Sox -163
The Red Sox are red hot at the plate, especially at home where they are batting .307 and scoring 6.6 runs per game. With Monday's 11-run outburst, they've now tallied at least 6 runs in 7 of their last 9 games. Oakland is batting only .209 on the season and just .184 against southpaw starters so I'm not expecting much out of its bats with Boston putting lefty Felix Doubront on the mound. The Red Sox have won 7 of their last 8 versus the A's. Bet Boston.
Black Widow
Boston Celtics +5
Oddsmakers are putting too much emphasis on the fact that Rajon Rondo has been suspended for Game 2. Boston has played without him before, and they have veteran leaders like Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett that can take their games to the next level when they have to. These two can also elevate the play of their teammates. I have Boston not only covering this spread in Game 2, but also winning outright over Atlanta. The Celtics are 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points since 1996. The Hawks are 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Take the Celtics and the points.
Dave Price
Philadelphia Phillies +110
The Phillies are showing value in the underdog role with Hamels on the hill. The southpaw is 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA, including 2-0 on the road with a 1.93 ERA. He's 11-6 with a 3.67 ERA in 23 career starts versus Atlanta, and the Phillies have won 13 of his last 20 starts in the series. Beachy is off to a fantastic start but has a poor track record versus Philly. The Braves are 0-6 in his 6 career starts in the series, during which he has posted an ERA of 3.94. Also, the Phillies have won their last 7 versus Atlanta.
Red Dog Sports
NY Mets -130
The Mets lost last night at Houston and look to bounce back tonight. They will have to face Wandy Rodriguez on Wednesday so look for a positive effort on Tuesday night. Jon Niese starts for the Mets and the team is 3-1 in his starts and he has an ERA of 2.29 in his last 3 appearances. The Astros are 42-86 in their last 128 games dating back to last year. Their starting pitcher is Happ and the team is just 9-28 in his last 37 starts (6-14 at home). Houston is 0-4 vs. left handed pitchers and only hit .209 against them. Look for David Wright to do well tonight. New York Mets win 5-3.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on Philadelphia Phillies as they take to the road to face the divisional rival Atlanta Braves set to start at 7:30 PM ET at Turner Field. The Phillies are off to a sluggish start, but are just 3 games behind the division leading Washington Nationals. The Phillies defeated the Cubs Monday, but had already booked a losing record for April. Still, the franchise entered this season with a team record nine consecutive winning months. This has been the longest streak since the Yankees had 12 consecutive winning months starting in September 2008 and ending in August 2010.
The last time these two teams met, the Phillies defeated the Braves and eliminated them from the 2011 playoffs. This concluded an epoch Braves collapse, who had what appeared to be an insurmountable lead in the Wild Card race entering September. However, the Cardinals caught fire and chased down and surpassed the Braves and then carried that monumental accomplishment to the World Series Championship. The Braves went 9-18 including 0-6 against the Phillies in September.
Since his rookie season in 2006, Hamels has posted an .810 winning percentage in May, which leads all starters with at least 20 decisions. For his career, he is 17-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 30 May starts, and is 5-1 with a 3.69 ERA in seven outings versus Atlanta in May starts.
He has posed a 2.73 ERA with a 1.025 WHIP allowing 24 hits, just two home runs, and has recorded 30 strikeouts and just two walks in four starts spanning 26 ⅓ innings of work. In two road starts, he has been stellar posting a 1.93 ERA and a 0.857 WHIP, walking two batters and striking out 11 spanning 14 innings of work. He has posted a 11-6 career mark over 23 starts with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.196 WHIP against Atlanta.
Hamels has one of the best changeups in the game today. Batters are hitting just .181 on that pitch and he throws it 23% of all pitches thrown. Since he is left-handed pitcher, he will use it 24% of pitches thrown in right-handed at-bats. Where Hamels can be dominating against right-handed batters, he works low in the strike zone and moves the ball from inside to outside corners.
One of the best values in baseball at least from a GM standpoint. Beach has the second best ERA in the National League and is costing the Braves a measly $495,000. In his four starts he has posted a 1.05 ERA and a 0.974 WHIP allowing 18 hits, three ER, seven walks, and 20 strikeouts spanning 25 ⅔ innings. However, his walk-to-strikeout ratio is not good and walking seven batters in 25 ⅔ innings shows a poor command of his pitches during his starts.
The Phillies have traditionally been a very patient hitting team working counts to their advantages, especially with runners in scoring position. Until recently, they have not been patient and is a dominant reason they are batting so poorly with runners in scoring position. They have steadily improved over the last week and rank 12th in MLB averaging 3.39 runners left in scoring position. By comparison, Baltimore ranks best averaging 2.52 runners left in scoring position. Cleveland ranks last averaging 4.45 runners left in scoring position.
Philadelphia will make Beachy work tonight and look to get his pitch count to 35 pitches quickly. After the 35th pitch he has allowed a .290 batting average this season and that is where the Phillies will do their damage. This also correlates to the Phillies getting their second at-bat against Beachy and the more looks MLB hitters get, the better they hit.
Take the Philadelphia Phillies boxed with Hamels.