Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago/ Philly Under 176: The Bulls have played without Rose for 27 games this year and in those 27 games the average score was 180.2 ppg, compared to 187.4 ppg with him. Ok that still puts us over tonight's total, but I feel the Sixers will come out with a great defensive plan and find a way to keep the Bulls Under 90 points in this one. The Bulls have averaged 4.2 ppg less without Rose this year, but more surprising in the fact that they have allowed 2.9 ppg less without as well. That's surprising because he is one of the best defenders on the team. That may also be due to the fact that they seem to slow down the game a bit more as well without him. Chicago has allowed 87.9 ppg at home this year and they did hold the Sixers to under 40% shooting in game 1. The Sixers have struggled some defensively down the stretch, but they know that their only shot here is great defense and I feel they will come out focused at that end of the floor, plus I don't expect the Bulls to shoot 51% like they did in game 1. I really expect a bslow paced game that will not even reach 170 points.
Denver +5.5 over LAKERS: I so wanted to take the under in this game, but stayed away and will go wityh the Nuggets here. In game 1 Denver had a horrible opening quarter, in which they were outscored 27-14, but through the rest of the game they played the Lakers tough, getting outscored by just 2 points through the final 3 quarters. Last game the Nuggets shot just 35.6% from the field, while the Lakers shot 50%, but they still hung tough in the game after quarter number 1. Those kind of numbers should have seen a 20+ point Lakers win. Despite the last game the Nuggets have still shot 50.7% in their last 5 games, so I do not expect them under 40% in this one, while I don't expect another 50% shooting performance from a lakers squad that has shot just 33.6% in their last 5 games. This aging Lakers squad is not very good on 1 days rest as they are 14-24 ATS in that situation, so I expect a fired up Denver squad to take advantage and keep this one very close. Just like they did through the final 3 quarters of game 1.
2 UNIT PLAY
Atlanta/ Boston Under 173.5: I know a ton of people are on the C's and that scares me a bit, especially considering the line is going up, so I will do what I do best in the NBA and that's look at the total. This low of an OU line doesn't scare me at all when looking at the UNDER in this one. Boston allowed 31 points in the first quarter of game 1, but then they did what they do best and that's lay some defense. Boston allowed just 52 points in the final 3 quarters. This team really knows how to play some defense and they will really have to clamp down at that end of the floor if they are to win this one without Rondo. Also not having Rondo will mean a slower paced game by the Celtics. Boston has now allowed 83.6 ppg in their last 5 games, while Atlanta has allowed 94 ppg over the same stretch, but I don't expect this Boston offense to come close to that number. 3 of the 4 games between these teams pout up no more than 168 points (regulation only) and I expect this one to fall in the 160's as well.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Detroit/ Kansas City Over 9: Detroit has had some problems scoring at home lately, but I believe they will have a better showing tonight vs a pitcher they have had good success vs. In a 144 AB's, current tiger players have a .333 BA, with 8 HR's and 23 RBI's against him. Miguel Cabrera leads the pack, hitting .517 with 2 HR's and 9 RBI's vs him, while Johnny Peralta has 3 HR's in 23 AB's vs the Right-hander. Luke has a 5.85 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Tigers and a 6.51 ERA in 5 career starts here. Let's also note that he has an ERA of over 6 in his 36 career road starts. Oh yeah i can see the Tigers offense really breaking out in this one. On the other side we have Rick Porcello, who has a 6.45 ERA in his 4 starts this year, including a 9.20 ERA in his 3 home starts. Rick has a career 4.84 ERA at Comerica park, while in 11 starts vs the Royals he has a 4.70 ERA, including a 7.27 ERA in his last 3 starts here vs them. The Royals offense has not been great, but it has been getting better, as they have hit .286 and have scored 5.2 rpg in their last 5 games. Against these two pitchers with better than average offenses, getting at least 4 runs from each team shouldn't be that hard. I really expect 12+ runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Milwaukee/ San Diego Over 6: I had this play last night and it cashed in the 4th inning. Probably won't be that easy tonight, but with a low OU line it also shouldn't be that hard to get. Edinson Volquez has a 2.88 ERA in his 4 home starts, but 3 of those starts were vs offensively challenged teams (Philly, Washington and Arizona (at the time Arizona was)), but he will be facing a team that hits him hard so he should easily give up a few in this one. Edinson has a 6.44 EA in his last 5 starts vs the Brewers, including a 7.10 ERA in two starts vs them last year. Current brewers have a .314 BA vs him, with 7 HR's and 19 RBI's in 105 AB's. Last night Braun went 4-5 with 2 HR's and 6 RBI's and he has good numbers vs Volquez, with a .368 BA, 1 HR and 3 RBI's in 19 AB's. A hot Braun should produce some runs vs this guy. Shaun Marcum has a 4-13 ERA overall and a 3.46 ERA on the road, while in 2 starts vs the Padres he has a 4.85 ERA. All 8 of Edinson's starts vs the Brewers has resulted in at least 7 runs being scored, while both of Marcum's starts vs the Padres has seen at least 9 runs scored. I expect at least 8 runs here.
NY Yanks/ Baltimore Over 10.5: I like picking over when Brian Matusz is on the mound. This is a bad pitcher that comes in with a career ERA of 5.54 and an ERA of 5.66 in his 4 starts this year The Yanks have hit hime pretty hard in his career as current Yankee players have a .301 BA, with 7 HR's and 23 RBI's vs him. Brian has a 5.10 ERA in 8 starts vs the Yanks and last year he allowed 5 ER in just 1.1 innings of work in his lone start here. Let's also note that Brian has a 7.50 ERA in 5 career starts in May. Phil Hughes has not started of the season good with a 7.88 ERA overall and a 9.43 ERA in his last 3 starts, while in 2 home starts this year he has an 8.31 ERA. Phil has a 5.24 ERA in 13 games (10 Starts) vs the O's and a 6.43 ERA in his last 27 starts at Yankee Stadium. THe O's offense isn't that great at 4.2 rpg but the should be able to get a good amount of runs off of Hughes in this one, while a Yankees team that score 5.5 rpg at home should be able to tag Brian Matusz for a bunch here. This one should hit 13+.
Seattle/ Tampa Bay Over 7.5: Really don't understand why this game came down from 8, but oh well, I still like it. Hector Noesi has really struggled this year, with an 8.83 ERA in his 4 starts, including a 12.38 ERA in his 2 road starts, with those 2 road games putting up 12.5 rpg. Today he will face a Tampa team that is 7th in scoring (4.61 rpg) while at home they have averaged 4.7 rpg on the year. Hector faced the Rays twice last year and didn't get out of the 3rd inning in either start, while posting a 9.64 ERA in the two starts. Current Rays players have a .407 BA vs him, with 2 HR's and 5 RBI's in 27 AB's. Matt Moore is making his 5th start of the year and he has a 4.68 ERA through the first 4. Matt has a 3.75 ERA at home, with his 2 home starts putting up 8 rpg, while his starts overall have averaged 8.3 rpg. Seattle is not a great offense at 21st in scoring, but they do score better on the road as they have averaged 4.3 rpg away from home, as opposed to 3.2 rpg at home. Not a great pitching matchup and with a low OU line we should get an easy Over here.
NY Mets -1.5 (+125) over HOUSTON: I like make at least one of these type plays a day and this one is it. I know I have the Under in the game below, but I reaaly feel like 1 team will score here and that will be the Mets. Johnathon Niese has had a nice start to the year, as he is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA on the year so far. He has also fared well vs Astros, with a 1-1 mark and a 1.81 ERA in 3 starts vs them, including a 1-0 mark and a 1.42 ERA in 2 career starts here. Houston's offense has been improved this year and at home they do average 4.6 rpg and hit .246, but vs left-handed pitching they hit just .226 and score just 2.9 rp/9 at home on the year. J.A. Happ has not had a great start, with a 1-1 mark and a 4.70 ERA overall, plus he comes I with a high 1.65 WHIP in his last 3 starts, compared to an 0.97 WHIP that Niese has on the year. Happ will put runners on and that's good news for a Mets team that swings the bat really well away from home, hitting .298 and scoring 5.2 rpg away from home. Houston just doesn't hit lefties all that well at home to put a lot of runs on the board here, while the Mets should tag Happ fro 4 or 5 runs. I expect a 5-2 or 4-1 final in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
LA Dodgers +106 over Colorado: Dodgers had their chances last night, but they should bounce back tonight behind Ted Lilly who is 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA in his last 5 vs the Rockies. Lilly is 2-0 with an 0.90 ERA on the year, while Chacin is 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA so far. LA bounces back tonight.
BOSTON -1.5 (+120) over Oakland: Boston Bats remain hot and they have averaged 7.2 rpg for this Kid. Oakland averages just 3.1 rpg on the road and won't nearly have enough offense to keep this one close. Another possible rout here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
NY Mets/ Houston Under 8: Two lefties on the mound in this one. I really think only one team will score here and that's the Mets. Look for no more than 6 runs in this one.
DETROIT -147 over Kansas City: Should be a high scoring game, with the detroit bats getting more off Hochevar than the Royals will get of Porcello.