SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (6-3 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (6-3, 4-5 ATS)
The top-seeded Cavaliers, who got a split of Games 3 and 4 in Boston to reclaim home-court advantage in this best-of-7 conference semifinal series, return to Quicken Loans Arena for Game 5 against the fourth-seeded Celtics.
Cleveland followed Friday’s 124-95 blowout win in Boston with Sunday’s 97-87 loss as a 1½-point favorite in Game 4. LeBron James, who had 38 points in the Game 3 rout, was held to a modest 22 points, along with nine rebounds and eight assists, and he committed seven turnovers. The Cavs were also outrebounded 47-33.
Rajon Rondo keyed Boston’s bounce-back win with a prolific triple-double of 29 points, 18 rebounds and 13 assists, and Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett added 18 points apiece. The Celts shot 44.7 percent (34 of 76), despite a lousy 1-for-14 effort from three-point range (7.1 percent).
Cleveland was humbled in Game 2 at home, losing 104-86 as a six-point chalk, but is still a solid 39-7 SU at the Q this season (3-1 in the postseason. However, the Cavs are a meager 19-27 ATS at home (2-4 in the playoffs), averaging 102.7 ppg on 49.4 percent shooting and giving up 94.5 (44.1 percent shooting). Boston is 28-17 on the highway (23-21-1 ATS), netting 98.0 ppg (47.7 percent shooting) while allowing 94.4 ppg (44.4 percent shooting). The Celts have split their two postseason roadies both SU and ATS.
These rivals have split eight meetings this season, with the SU winner covering every time, and the SU victor has cashed in 11 straight clashes overall. Against the Celtics, Cleveland is on ATS runs of 20-9-2 overall, 8-3 in the playoffs and 7-2 at home, though the underdog has cashed in four of the last five meetings, including the last three in a row.
The Cavaliers are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 second-round playoff games, 8-4 ATS in their last 11 starts against Atlantic Division foes and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a non-cover. That said, they remain on ATS slides of 6-13 overall, 3-8 at home, 0-5 after a day off, 2-8 against winning teams, 4-11 as a chalk and 4-9 following a SU loss.
The Celtics are on pointspread purges 6-15 in the second round, 2-9 coming off a SU win and 2-8 following a spread-cover, but they are on a 24-11 ATS run as a road pup of five to 10½ points and are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 as a playoff ‘dog of any price.
The under is 19-7 in Cleveland’s last 26 conference semifinal contests and 4-1 in its last five games after a day off, but the Cavs are otherwise on “over” surges of 4-0 after a non-cover, 12-3 against the Atlantic Division and 6-1 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 12-6 overall, 5-2 on the road, 8-3 against the Central Division, 5-0 after either a SU or an ATS win and 7-3 as a pup, though the under has hit in six of its last eight second-round playoff starts.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in two of the last three games, with Game 4 failing to hit the 195-point price. However, but the over is still 6-2 in this season’s eight head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Diego (19-12) at San Francisco (18-12)
The top two teams in the N.L. West begin a three-game series at AT&T Park, where Barry Zito (5-0, 1.49 ERA) looks to continue his early-season dominance when he takes on the Padres’ Wade LeBlanc (2-0, 1.16) in a battle of southpaws.
San Diego began a six-game road trip by taking two of three in Houston over the weekend, failing to complete the sweep Sunday when it lost 4-3 in 11 innings. Despite that setback, the Padres have surged to the top of the division standings thanks to a 14-6 surge, going 6-3 on the highway during this stretch. On top of that, Bud Black’s team is on positive runs of 7-3 against N.L. West foes, 5-0 versus left-handed starters, 20-6 after a defeat, 20-8 against winning teams, 6-2 in series openers and 5-0 on Tuesday. The Padres’ lone negative: They’re 10-22 in their last 32 after a day off.
San Francisco capped a six-game East Coast road trip with Sunday’s 6-5 victory at the Mets. The Giants went 4-2 on the journey – the two losses coming in walk-off fashion in New York on Friday and Saturday – and they’ve won 10 of their last 15. Additionally, San Francisco is 14-5 in its last 19 at AT&T Park (10-5 this season), 18-6 in its last 24 series openers and 6-1 in its last seven after a day off. However, Bruce Bochy’s bunch has dropped five of seven divisional contests.
The Padres’ current 14-6 run includes a three-game home sweep of the Giants from April 19-21, with San Francisco managing a total of four runs in the three defeats. San Diego has won six of the last eight meetings dating to last September, but the home team is on a 16-5 roll in this rivalry. In fact, last year, the host won the first 11 head-to-head battles, and the Padres are 3-10 in their last 13 visits to AT&T Park.
The Padres are undefeated with LeBlanc starting this season, and going back to a 2-0 victory over the Giants on the next-to-last day of the 2009 season, San Diego has won five straight behind the left-hander. During this five-game stretch, LeBlanc has surrendered a total of three runs in 30 1/3 innings (0.89 ERA), walking just seven while striking out 28. Also, since the beginning of September 2009, LeBlanc has given up two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts – a total of 11 runs in 59 1/3 innings in those 10 contests (1.67 ERA) – with San Diego going 8-2 overall (4-1 on the road).
Four of LeBlanc’s five starts this season have been at home, with his lone road effort being a 5-0 shutout victory in Cincinnati (he allowed three hits and two walks in six innings). Also, during his tremendous 10-start surge, LeBlanc has defeated the Giants twice – his only two career appearances against San Francisco – and he gave up a combined two runs and six hits with four walks and 11 strikeouts, pitching exactly seven innings in each contest.
While LeBlanc has been solid all season, so too has Zito, who has delivered six quality starts in as many tries. In his last four trips to the hill, he’s allowed just four runs in 30 1/3 innings (1.19 ERA) with 22 strikeouts against just eight walks. The former Cy Young winner has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, with the Giants going 6-1, including a 7-2 victory in San Diego in the final weekend of the 2009 season.
Behind Zito, the Giants are on additional positive stretches of 8-2 at home, 4-1 against the N.L. West, 4-0 on Tuesday and 5-0 when he starts a series. Zito is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in three home starts this season, but 3-6 with a 4.17 ERA in 16 games (15 starts) against San Diego. Last year, he faced the Padres six times, going 0-4 with a 5.08 ERA.
The Padres are on “under” streaks of 18-7-1 on the road, 10-4-1 versus the N.L. West, 20-7 after a loss, 5-0 on Tuesday, 3-1-1 in LeBlanc’s last five starts overall and 4-1-1 in LeBlanc’s last six against the N.L. West. However, the over has cashed in seven of LeBlanc’s last nine road outings.
San Francisco topped the total in its last four games on its just-concluded road trip and the over is also 6-2 in its last eight after a day off an 11-5-2 in its last 18 series openers. Conversely, the Giants still carry “under” trends of 9-1 at home, 7-0 in divisional games, 4-0 overall with Zito starting and 5-2-1 when Zito pitches at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under has cashed in five straight clashes overall, nine of 13 in San Francisco and five of seven when Zito faces the Padres at AT&T Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (21-10) at Detroit (18-14)
Two pitchers off to poor starts to the season square off at Comerica Park, as Javy Vazquez (1-3, 9.78 ERA) takes the ball for the Yankees for the first time in two weeks and matches up against the Tigers’ Rick Porcello (2-3, 7.50) in the second game of a four-game series.
Detroit held off the Yankees 5-4 to take Monday’s series opener and halt a 1-4 slide (all on the road). The Tigers have now won six in a row at home, and they’re 10-3 at Comerica Park this season and 46-22 in their last 68 home contests. Jim Leyland’s club has also won five of seven against the A.L. East and four straight at home against right-handed starters, but Detroit has dropped four of five Tuesday contests.
The Yankees have followed up a six-game winning streak with back-to-back losses, but they’ve still won nine of 12 overall, going 4-2 on the road during this stretch. The defending world champs are on additional surges of 40-17 overall, 40-15 against the A.L. Central, 62-23 against right-handed starters, 8-3 on the road versus righties and 16-5 on Tuesday.
Detroit beat New York 4-2 in last year’s first meeting (in Motown), but the Yankees came back to win the final five clashes by a combined score of 28-11. Despite Monday’s result, the visitor is still on a 7-3 roll in this rivalry, with the Yankees going 4-2 in their last six in Detroit.
Vazquez has been a disaster in his second tour of duty with the Yankees, giving up 25 runs in 23 innings and failing to get out of the sixth inning in any of his five starts. After consecutive losses in which he surrendered five runs in 3 2/3 innings at the Angels on April 25 and five runs in three innings against the White Sox on May 1, the Yankees bypassed his spot in the rotation last week.
Vazquez is 1-2 with a 9.82 ERA in three road contests this year (giving up five home runs in 14 2/3 innings), and he’s 6-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 13 career starts against the Tigers (2-5, 6.09 ERA in seven starts at Comerica Park).
Porcello went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA in 31 starts as a rookie last year, but he’s struggled as a sophomore, posting just one quality start in six trips to the mound. Over his last four outings (three on the road), the right-hander has surrendered 22 runs (20 earned) in 19 innings (9.47 ERA). On Wednesday, he got tagged for five runs (three earned) in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-4 loss at Minnesota.
The Tigers have lost four of Porcello’s last five starts overall and four straight when he’s pitched on Tuesday, but they’re 7-2 in his last nine Comerica outings. In three home starts this season, Porcello is 2-0 despite a hefty 5.51 ERA. Also, he faced New York once in his rookie campaign in 2009, giving up six runs in 3 2/3 innings at home, losing 8-6.
New York is riding “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 36-18-3 on the road, 10-4 versus winning teams, 5-2-1 versus right-handed starters and 4-1-1 on Tuesday. Additionally, going back to Vazquez’s first stint with New York in 2004, the Yankees have topped the total in seven of his last eight starts in Pinstripes, four of his last five on Tuesday, four of his last five against the A.L. Central and 10 straight against winning teams.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 4-1 against the A.L. East, 14-6-2 on Tuesday, 4-1 behind Porcello overall and 5-1-1 when Porcello pitches on Tuesday.
Finally, five of the last eight Yankees-Tigers contests in Motown have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
Boston at Cleveland
The Celtics look to take advantage of a Cleveland team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 playoff games as a favorite. Boston is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+7 1/2)
Game 733-734: Boston at Cleveland (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 123.459; Cleveland 124.364
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 1; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 7 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+7 1/2); Under
MLB
LA Dodgers at Arizona
The Diamondbacks look to snap a four-game losing streak and build on their 7-2 record in Dan Haren's last 9 starts as a home favorite. Arizona is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-155)
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.049; Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.262
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-135); Over
Game 903-904: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Olsen) 15.402; NY Mets (Niese) 16.295
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-140); Over
Game 905-906: Florida at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.247; Cubs (Wells) 14.086
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); No Line
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-105); N/A
Game 907-908: Houston at St. Louis (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 13.398; St. Louis (Penny) 16.516
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 3; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-240); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-240); Under
Game 909-910: Atlanta at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 14.975; Milwaukee (Bush) 15.636
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Under
Game 911-912: Philadelphia at Colorado (8:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 16.688; Colorado (Cook) 15.178
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-190); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-190); Under
Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ely) 13.862; Arizona (Haren) 14.041
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-155); Under
Game 915-916: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (LeBlanc) 15.189; San Francisco (Zito) 16.769
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Under
Game 917-918: Seattle at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Lee) 14.832; Baltimore (Hernandez) 13.890
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-150); Under
Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Vazquez) 16.360; Detroit (Porcello) 15.686
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145); Over
Game 921-922: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Eveland) 15.645; Boston (Matsuzaka) 16.622
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Over
Game 923-924: Oakland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.222; Texas (Lewis) 16.604
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-170); Over
Game 925-926: Cleveland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Westbrook) 15.727; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.643
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-105); Over
Game 927-928: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 15.486; Minnesota (Slowey) 17.445
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-165); Over
Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 14.640; LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.043
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Under
NHL
Chicago at Vancouver
The Blackhawks look to clinch the series and build on their 8-0 record in their last 8 games as an underdog. Chicago is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+115)
Game 17-18: Chicago at Vancouver (9:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.973; Vancouver 12.578
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-135); 6
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+115); Over
Marc Lawrence
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
When the Rays meet the Angels in Game Two of this three-game set in Los Angeles this evening they will do so knowing that Jeff Niemann is 13-7 in his last 20 road team starts and also 4-1 in his five career road team starts during the month of May. With Niemann in solid current form and Halos southpaw Scott Kazmir still looking to regain his form, look for Texas to come up big in Anaheim tonight.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Colorado set to start at 8:40 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Phillies will easily win this game. This is the best NL offense with the best starter in the majors. Colorado is just 14-30 (-17.6 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 3-10 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in home games versus a NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons. Halladay pitvhes well throughout the entire season and for the month of May he is 37-14 (+20.7 Units) against the money line in May games since 1997. Halladay is 6-1 in 7 starts posting a 1.45 ERA and a 0.946 WHIP averaging 8 innings of work per start and posting a remarkable 48 K?s with just 7 walks. Phillies offense will score an abundance of runs against Cook. Take the Phillies.
Cajun Sports
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 10
The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox open a mini two-game series on Tuesday night with the first pitch set for 7:10PM EST. Toronto will send left-hander Dana Eveland to the bump with his 3-1 record and ERA of 3.82. His last three starts have seen an increase in his ERA to 5.94 and his record fall to 1-1. Eveland started against the Red Sox back on April 26th lasting only three innings giving up seven earned runs on eight hits in a 13 to 12 loss. He has a career mark of 0-2 versus the Sox with an ERA of 18.23. Boston will counter with Daisuke Matsuzaka and his 1-1 record and ERA of 9.90 on the season. The Red Sox have posted a record of 13-7 over at home during the 2010 campaign and 5-2 over their last seven overall. Boston is 7-4 over versus left-handed starters scoring 6.5 runs per game. Toronto is 5-2 over their last seven games overall and 15-9 over versus right-handed starters. They are averaging 5.7 runs per game when facing righties this season. With the Blue Jays on the road and facing a right-handed starter they tip the over scale at a rate of 18-7-1. Boston is 5-0 over their last five when facing a team with a winning record, 5-2 over when installed as a home favorite in this price range and 4-0 over when the total for the game is in the current range. The Red Sox are 40-27 over with an on base percentage of .350 or better the last 2 seasons. The over is the play here as Boston and Toronto force this one well above the posted total.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Toronto – Boston OVER 10
Craig Trapp
Tampa Bay Rays vs. LAA Angels
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
What value on the best team in baseball! TB lost in game of this series last night in extra innings. Tonight they will turn the tables with much better pitching and consistent hitting. Best lineup in MLB has TB out to this great start but its easy to forget their startering pitching have been amazing! Nieman is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA and is coming off a great road win at SEA where he went 7 innings and 0 runs allowed. LAA turns to former star pitcher for TB Scott Kazmir. Kazmir has been horrible lately allowing at least 4 walks in his last 4 starts. If he has same struggles tonight watch out TB could score double digits against him. This one is a total mismatch and TB rolls here.
Rob Vinciletti
Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Under 8.5
In this series 14 of the past 21 have played under the total. Tonight we note that the Nationals are hitting a paltry .212 on the road while the Mets are hitting just .215 vs lefthanders this season. In the pitching match up the Nationals have improving lefty S.Olsen. In his previous 2 starts here in New York he has been solid allowing just 4 runs in 12 innings. Over his last 3 starts he has a sterling 0.44 era with all 3 games going under. The Mets counter with J.Niese. In his home starts he has been exceptional with a 2.12 era. Over his last 3 starts he ha had some tough road assignments. However he has been real good with a 2.95 era. The Mets in fact have a solid home bullpen era at 2.24. Look for this game to play under the 8.5 runs.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Blackhawks @ Canucks
PICK: Under 6
I stated before this series started that these were the types of teams that could win 5-1 one night, and then lose 5-1 in the following game; Chicago leads the series 3-2 and has dominated the Canucks at GM Place, outscoring them 12-6 in two games there.
Game 1: 5-1 win for Vancouver
Game 2: 4-2 win for Chicago
Game 3: 5-2 win for Chicago
Game 4: 7-4 win for Chicago
Game 5: 4-1 win for Vancouver
I had a *10* play on the "under" in Game 5, and my *10* post season NHL picks remain on a 9-4 (69%) run since the beginning of the Playoffs.
For the most part, I've had a hard time getting a good read on either side during this series…but not tonight! I believe this one is going to be a no-brainer. (make sure to check out my big *10* 'Hawks/Nucks GAME 6 WINNER)
Vancouver was extremely effective at shutting down the 'Hawks in Game 5, and Dustin Byfuglien, the bruising 6' 5" 265 lb. menace, was a non-factor.
The Canucks made a major adjustment in Chicago, and I expect them to do the same in their own barn; they played a much more disciplined game and avoided stupid penalties; Vancouver was short-handed 14 times in its previous two home games and gave up six-power play goals.
This was a problem for it in its first round matchup vs. LA as well, until it made similar changes in its game plan.
That's not to say it didn't play aggressive, especially short handed.
“It’s a team game,” said Roberto Luongo, who made 29 saves last time out. “We all have to step it up as a team. If we want to move on we’ve got to play the best hockey we’ve played all year. It’s not on one guy to make a difference. It’s on everybody to make sure they give a little extra.”
Chicago has played some of its best hockey on the road and will be looking to get more traffic and shots on Luongo; “We put ourselves in this situation,” forward Patrick Kane said. “We want to win, obviously, in Game 6 and not give ourselves a chance to go to Game 7.”
I'm expecting the tightest contest of this series.
It has to be pointed out that Chicago has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in 10 of 15 games this year after a loss by 2 goals or more in its previous contest; which means of course, that after a sub par effort, this team comes out and plays with an extremely concerted effort on the defensive end.
This number is too high; Luongo and Antti Niemi take centre stage tonight; I suggest a second look at the UNDER in this situation.
Jim Feist
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Take: Detroit Tigers
As good a start as the Yankees have had, they are not a stellar road team, starting 9-6. They've been doing most of their damage at home. The weak link of the pitching staff goes here in 33-year old Javier Vazquez (1-3, 9.78 ERA). His control has been awful, walking 15 in 23 innings and he's getting worse, walking 10 in his last 12 innings. The Yankees are 1-4 in his 5 starts and he was a favorite in every one. Even with the walk troubles, his fastball isn't fooling everyone as opponents are hitting .337 off him. Detroit has been great at home and is battling the Twins for first place. The offense has been stellar, a deep lineup, along with rookie CF Austin Jackson and his .371 average atop the order. Starter Rick Porcello is 2-0 at home this season and 10-3 for his career. Play the Tigers.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +1.02 over CHICAGO
As long as the Cubbies continue to be favored in games that they’re more likely to lose than win, it’s recommended to keep betting against them. Randy Wells is having a very rough time at the moment and he’s throwing for club that’s also having a rough time. That combination of rough and rougher is not one that is worth laying juice in. Wells has made six starts and three were decent while the other three were anything but, including his last two. His strong starts all came on the road when he faced the Mets, Braves and Brewers, all struggling offenses. He was rocked by the D-Backs, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, not exactly the cream of the crop. Wells has allowed 42 hits in 33.1 innings for a BAA of .302. In two home games vs the Pirates and Brewers his ERA is 6.57 and his BAA is .340. He does have good command but his fastball tops off at just 89MPH and he could be losing confidence in his changeup and/or slider because of what has transpired over his last two starts. Ricky Nolasco has pitched in New York, Colorado and in Philadelphia and in those three road starts his BAA is .188 and his ERA is 1.90. He dominated both Philly and Colorado in two of the toughest parks on pitchers in the majors. He, too, has shown great command with just eight walks in 40 innings. He’s also struck out 32. The Cubbies have lost seven of eight and against the Marlins they have eight wins in the past 25 meetings. The Cubbies are making a lot of pitchers look good this season. Play: Florida +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +1.28 over NY METS
The Nats are 18-14 and just two games back of the Phillies. They’ve won three in a row and they’re not going away. They do a lot of things right and they’ll send out Scott Olsen here, a guy that has been dealing it the past three games. In fact, Olsen has gone 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA over that three-game stretch. The guy is throwing BB’s out there and has 20 K’s and just four walks over his last 20 innings. He’s always had the talent but his biggest problem was his state of mind, as he used to get rattled easily and was not a pleasant guy at any time. That has changed completely and he came into this year with a new attitude and it’s paying off. Olsen looks great out there and the line-up he’ll see here is not to be feared. Jonathan Niese has great potential but he’s also been living somewhat of a charmed life this year. In six starts this season the league is hitting .315 off Niese but an 80% strand rate has masked that. That 80% strand rate simply cannot last and that’s all there is to it. That’s not to say he can’t throw a good game because he definitely can. He throws strikes and that alone gives him a chance. However, Olsen is dominating right now, the Nats are winning games and the tag and value is on the visitor. Play: Washington +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +1.45 over SAN FRANCISCO
After six starts Barry Zito is 5-0 with an ERA of 1.49. He’s a perfect example of why the NL is such an inferior league to the AL. Zito is an average pitcher that is on a better run right now than a Kenyan track team but it can’t last too much longer. Zito has four pitches (fastball, slider, curve and change) and utilizes all of them but his fastball tops off at 85 MPH. He’s tricky and brings a wealth of experience but his stuff just isn’t that good, his change of speeds is and that’s what allows him to win games. However, the Padres are 5-1 against lefties and if Zito goes back to his usual form of falling behind hitters, he’s always going to be in big trouble. The best pitchers in the league seldom go on 6-0 runs and Zito is not even close to being one of the best. Wade Leblanc made two starts vs the Giants last season and went 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA after allowing just six hits in 14 innings. This season he’s 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA although he has had some fortune on his side. Still, he has great command, as his 20 K’s and six walks will attest to. The bottom line here once again is value, as the Padres are 19-12 and they’re 4-0 when Leblanc starts. Play: San Diego +1.45 (Risking 2 units).
James Patrick Sports
Braves vs. Brewers
The Braves are in Milwaukee's Miller Park for a Tuesday Night affair with the Brewers and Milwaukee gives the ball to Davis Bush who owns a (1-0) record with a (1.71) ERA in (3) starts against Atlanta with (14) strike outs in (21) innings.Big Game James Patrick's Fan Appreciation Day selection is Milwaukee Brewers.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Philadelphia over Colorado
Philadelphia pounded the undermanned Rockies 9-6 last night, even with a down outing by RHP Kyle Kendrick. Today, Doc Halladay (6-2, 1.45) should add to the Colorado woes against the hard hitting visitor. First off, the Phillies have won 5 straight in Colorado, while scoring a super 13-3 mark overall against the Rocks. Colorado has suffered lately against quality teams (.600)losing 8 of 20 with their pitching staff being a prime culprit. Other than the spectacular Jimenez (#1 in NL ERA)Colorado has no other hurler in the top 50 league wide. The pen has been a failure too, against wining baseball teams. So, this is a natural spot for the Phillies who appear on the up-tick the last two weeks. By the way, if umpire Chris Guccione calls the balls and strikes the Phillies are 7-0 in his spots.
Bobby Maxwell
Tampa Bay at L.A. ANGELS (+105)
Hit my third straight FREE winner on Monday with the Phillies getting the victory in Colorado, and it improved my comp run to 94-72-3. Tonight I have another baseball winner as I go with the Angels at home against the Rays.
Suddenly the Tampa bats have gone ice cold and tonight they have to face their former teammate in lefty Scott Kazmir who would love nothing more than to shut them down. Kazmir spent almost six seasons with the Rays and was one of the only bright spots during their lean years. Tonight he’ll shut down his old buddies and get the Angels a win.
Kazmir has been inconsistent with the Angels, shutting down the Tigers on one run over six innings two starts ago, but then getting hit for seven runs in 4.1 innings on Thursday in Boston. In Anaheim, he is 2-0 with a 4.91 ERA this season, topping the Yankees and Tigers.
Jeff Niemann (2-0, 2.23 ERA) goes for the Rays, but he has had no success against the Angels in his career, allowing nine runs on 14 hits in 9 innings, including a 10-5 loss in Anaheim last August.
In fact, the whole Rays’ ballclub hasn’t fared very well in Anaheim, going just 1-9 in their last 10 trips there over the last three seasons. Last season, the Angels outscored the Rays 24-12 in a three-game sweep.
The Angels are 53-24 in the last 77 clashes between these two and scored a 5-4, 11-inning win on Monday night. Play Los Angeles to keep it going tonight as Kazmir leads the way.
3♦ L.A. ANGELS
Jr. O'Donnell
Vancouver Canucks.
Vancouver tonight - 140 gets our free call on ice, 5-2-1 the last 8 in the rink, and tonight's play is all about Canucks goalie "R Louongo''. JR O will line up on the powerful home team, winners of 30 games on home ice and the Canucks have the swagger back. The public will see the injury to Vancouver's Salo and grab the Dog here but not us. JR O is on fire in MLB and that fire carries over to a smooth Ice "W" tonight.
MTi Sports
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
The Pirates are 0-9 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has won at least their last two games and 0-8 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem when they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they never led. The Reds are a solid 16-5 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games. This price seems very reasonable.