Offshore Insiders
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston came away with a 97-87 victory in Game 4, knotting the series at two games apiece. The Celtics covered as 1.5-point underdogs, giving them their sixth win against the spread in their past 10 games on NBA odds. The series shifts back to Cleveland now, and Boston is just 5-5 against the spread in its last 10 road games.
The Cavaliers have let down sports betting fans over the past few weeks. Despite racking up some wins, LeBron James and Co. have covered just four of their past 10 outings. In fact, Cleveland is just 7-13 in its last 20 games against the spread. The Cavaliers have actually been worse on their home turf, going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
This series has been a dogfight, and there’s no reason to believe that will change now. Boston will keep it close enough to cover.
Pick: Boston
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
The Yankees have dropped back-to-back games on MLB odds, which ended a six-game winning streak. Still, they’re a rock-solid 7-3 in their past 10 outings. Javier Vazquez (1-3, 9.78 ERA) will take the mound for New York. They’ve won just one of his five starts this season, and he allowed five runs in three innings during last week’s 7-6 loss to the Chicago White Sox.
Detroit is 2-4 in its last six games, though both victories came in the past three days. Rick Porcello (2-3, 7.50 ERA) will get the nod for the Tigers. He’s allowed at least five runs in four consecutive games, although in his last start—a 5-4 loss to the Twins—only three of them were earned. Detroit is 2-4 in games started by Porcello.
The Yankees are definitely playing better at the sportsbook right now. Vazquez has been a bit of a nightmare, but he has a solid track record against the Tigers, boasting a 4.50 ERA in 13 starts. He’ll do enough to let the Bronx Bombers go to work on Porcello.
Pick: New York.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll back Tampa Bay behind Neimann tonight, as the Rays are looking to end their three-game losing streak. Offense has been the issue of late for Tampa Bay, who were no-hit on Sunday and have scored just six runs in their last three games. But we don’t see that being a problem tonight against Scott Kazmir, who is coming off an awful performance of 7 ER’s in 4 1/3 innings and has a 7.11 ERA on the season. Rays break their losing streak!
Play on: Tampa Bay Rays
BEN BURNS
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets
The Nationals grabbed yesterday's series opener. However, I believe that the Mets have an excellent shot at bouncing back in this evening's "battle of southpaws."
Olsen has certainly been pitching very well for the Nats lately. He's only 1-6 vs. the Mets though. That includes a 0-6 record with a 5.22 ERA his last nine starts against them.
Like Olsen, Niese has also been pitching well. Even after a sub-par outing last time out (4 runs in 6 innings) he's still got a solid 3.60 ERA on the season, including a stellar 2.12 ERA in his three home starts. Unlike Olsen, he's never faced today's opponent, which should work to his advantage.
While the Nats are clearly an improved team this year, it's still worth noting that they're just 37-65 (-18.7) vs. southpaw starters, the past 2+ seasons. The Mets are still 14-8 when hosting the Nats, the past few seasons. Consider New York.
Tom Freese
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is 19-7 overall and they are 14-4 their last 18 road games. The Rays are 15-5 in the last 20 starts made by Niemann vs. a team with a losing record. The Rays are 40-15 in Game 2 of series. Tampa Bay is 7-3 their last 10 games vs. AL West teams. Los Angeles starter Scott Kazmir hasn't pitched past the sixth inning this year. Kazmir is 2-3 this year. The Angels are 3-8 their last 11 games and they are 2-5 off a win. The Halos are 1-4 with Kazmir as an underdog. PLAY ON TAMPA BAY -
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -109
Wells is coming off his worst outing of the season, and I expect him to bounce back strong tonight against the Marlins. Here's what he had to say about his last performance. "It's terrible, unacceptable," Wells said. "I came in too cocky, too confident ... When we needed a win the most to stop the bleeding, I got lackadaisical, wasn't on top of my game." This guy is a competitor, not the type that will take this start for granted. Plus, Florida will be at a disadvantage having never seen Wells before. The Cubs are 9-3 in Wells' last 12 starts as a home favorite and a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. The Marlins may have won the first game of this series, but on the season they are only scoring 3.8 runs per game on the road while hitting just .243. Meanwhile, the Cubs are scoring 5.4 runs per game at home while hitting .295. Look for Chicago to get back in the win column behind a gem by Wells.
EZWINNERS
Philadelphia Phillies -177
Philadelphia's ace starting pitcher Roy Halliday continues to roll through the National League. Halladay is now 6-1 with a 1.61 ERA as one of the most dominant pitchers in all of major league baseball for the last five years is now benefiting from facing much weaker national league lineups. The Rockies starting pitcher Aaron Cook has not pitched well this season. Cook has a 6.03 ERA on the season and has struggled mightily with his control so far this year. Cook is coming off of another rough start in his last outing at San Diego on Wednesday where he allowed five runs on six hits in five innings while issuing two walks and recording only two strikeouts. I don't expect things to turn around for Cook in this game against Philadelphia as he has been hammered by the Phillies in the past. In eight games against Philadelphia Cook is only 1-5 with an ERA of 5.85. The Phillies are 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams. Play on the Philadelphia.
Cincinnati Kid
CLE / BOS Over 194
Recent Game 5 match-ups in the 2nd round indicate an Over result when the margin of victory in Game 4 was by Double Digits...Boston posted 93 and 104 respectively in Games 1 & 2 at the Quicken Loans arena and with Rondo's recent decision making should prove 'point' worthy on the floor and scoreboard this evening...the 93 points Boston scored in Game 1 was the lowest point total allowed by the Cavs spanning their last 8 playoff games.
Craig Trapp
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Boston Celtics +7.5
Really think this is going to be the best game of the series. If BOS wants any chance of winning the series then they must win today. With all the confidence from game 2 and 4 they should shoot the ball well today. Also Rondo is such a problem for CLE as they have to really quick guard to keep him out of the paint. Lebron just does not look 100% healthy right now that elbow still looks to bother him when he shoots. Way too many points to give up in the pivotal game 5 take BOS in a 3 star play for me!
SEAN MURPHY
Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
This is a mismatch across the board, so all things considered, laying 80 cents to back the Phillies isn't a bad proposition.
Philadelphia is rolling right now, winners of eight of its last 10 games. With the Rays and Yankees struggling, the Phillies are the best team in the majors. For the moment at least.
As far as I'm concerned, Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. He bounced back nicely from his lone bad outing this season. That came three starts back in San Francisco. Since then he's gone 2-0 with the Phillies outscoring the opposition 17-2. He worked 16 innings in those two starts, allowing just 10 hits and one earned run while striking out 15 and walking only four.
The only two Rockies hitters with any considerable success against Halladay are Jason Giambi and Melvin Mora. They've combined for just 80 at-bats this season, and neither are hitting well by any means.
Colorado's offense has to be downgraded with both Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez expected to be out of the lineup on Tuesday.
The Rockies will counter with Aaron Cook. He has just one victory in six starts this season, recording an inflated 6.03 ERA along the way. He has made four home starts against the Phillies since the 2005 season, and the Rockies have gone 0-4 in those games.
The current Phillies roster has had a field day against Cook, hitting a collective .357 and slugging .512 in 84 career at-bats against him.
With last night's win, the Phillies are now 13-3 in their last 16 meetings with the Rockies. They've now won five straight matchups here at Coors Field. I'll recommend laying the juice on Tuesday night. Take Philadelphia.
Wunderdog
Yankees vs. Tigers
Play: Under 10
The Yankees suddenly have injury issues, losing five players over the course of six games. Some have been relegated to the DL, others to nagging day-to-day injuries, but the offense has shown signs of feeling the effects. The Yankees’ staff has been as good as advertised holding 17 teams to 3 runs or less already. The Tigers starters aren’t pretty, but the pen has been lethal with all six arms are out there with an ERA of less than 2.50. The Tigers are a huge UNDER choice vs. the best teams, as they feature a 65-30-2 mark to the UNDER vs. teams with a winning percentage topping the .600 mark. The Tigers and Yanks have gone UNDER in four straight meetings, and I look again to the UNDER in this one.
Nelly
Florida + over Chicago
The Cubs have lost six of the last seven games and only once in that span did Chicago top three runs scored. Chicago is five games below .500 and while Florida is also a losing team, the Marlins have out-scored opponents for the year. Florida is 8-8 on the road this season. Ricky Nolasco has an average record and ERA but the rest of his statistics are outstanding, including a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Nolasco is 2-0 on the road with a 1.90 ERA and he should have success against this Chicago lineup. The Florida bullpen has also been much more reliable as the Cubs have the second worst bullpen ERA in the NL. After great results in 2009, Randy Wells has really struggled this season. Wells may be 3-1 but he has a 6.57 ERA at Wrigley Field. His season WHIP is 1.50 and he is not the strikeout pitcher that a free swinging Marlins team typically would struggle against. Florida is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings between these teams and the Marlins have been the more reliable team on offense and defense this season. Chicago is a team to fade until things straighten out on the pitching staff. The decent offensive numbers for Chicago are also very misleading as the team has had a handful of huge scoring games but far more inept offensive outings.
David Chan
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
Take the Rays and David Price over the Angels and Jered Weaver.
These are two awesome pitchers and I’m not going to be able to separate them with certainty. I can argue that either man has the edge. Price has the lower ERA and better ground-to-fly ratio; Weaver has the better K/BB ratio. Their WHIPs are a hair apart.
What I would say is that, headed into Tuesday, the Rays have played two fewer games and have nevertheless outscored the Angels 178-136. That’s where our edge is here, and near even money, it needs to be seized.
Info Plays
3* on New York Mets -132
Reasons the Mets win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) - off a one run win over a division rival, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. This is an 81-32 ML System hitting 71.7% since 1997 and gaining +47 units.
2.) The Mets are 9-2 in their last 11 home games. New York's Jon Niese has posted a 2.12 ERA at home this season in 3 outings. Nats' starter Scott Olsen is 1-6 with a 4.16 ERA lifetime vs. New York. Bet the Mets at home.
Black Widow
1* on Milwaukee Brewers +113
Dave Bush looks much more comfortable on the mound this season than he has been the last couple years for the Brewers. Bush has posted a 4.19 ERA this season and he's coming off two very solid starts, allowing a total of 4 earned runs in 12 innings against the Dodgers and Padres. Bush has owned the Braves in his career, going 1-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. Atlanta. Atlanta is 5-18 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a win by 6 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Braves are 10-28 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Atlanta is 2-8 in Tim Hudson's last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The clear value in this game is with the home team. Take the Brewers on the Money Line.
Jack Jones
Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 10.5
Daisuke Matsuzaka still has control issues for the Red Sox, allowing 11 earned runs on 10 hits and 6 walks in 10 innings for a 9.90 ERA and 1.800 WHIP through two starts this season. It's safe to say that Dana Eveland is intimidated by the Boston Red Sox. Eveland is 0-2 with an 18.23 ERA and 3.323 WHIP in four career starts against Boston. To put those numbers in perspective, Eveland has allowed 25 earned runs and 41 base runners in 12.1 innings in his four starts vs. the Red Sox.
The Red Sox are 17-6 to the OVER vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 14-4 to the OVER in road games after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 18-5 to the OVER in home games after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 19-6-1 in Blue Jays last 26 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 37-18 in Boston's last 55 home games and 5-0 in their last 5 games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Boston. Roll with the OVER Tuesday.