Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, May 14

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Seattle at NY Yankees
The Mariners look to build on their 8-2 record in Felix Hernandez' last 10 starts against the Yankees. Seattle is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100)

Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.324; Pittsburgh (Locke) 14.421
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105); Over

Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.314; Miami (Nolasco) 13.820
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-165); Under

Game 955-956: Colorado at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 15.907; Cubs (Villanueva) 14.802
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+120); N/A

Game 957-958: NY Mets at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 13.264; St. Louis (Gast) 15.976
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under

Game 959-960: Atlanta at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 15.573; Arizona (Corbin) 14.515
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+120); Under

Game 961-962: Washington at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Haren) 16.250; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.745
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+165); Over

Game 963-964: Houston at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Harrell) 12.609; Detroit (Fister) 16.770
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-300); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-300); Over

Game 965-966: Seattle at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.797; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.930
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100); Under

Game 967-968: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 13.786; Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.403
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-145); Under

Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago White Sox (Peavy) 13.973; Minnesota (Correia) 15.929
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105); Over

Game 971-972: Kansas City at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.437; LA Angels (Vargas) 13.498
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Over

Game 973-974: Texas at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 15.585; Oakland (Colon) 13.973
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-125); Under

Game 975-976: Cleveland at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kazmir) 16.871; Philadelphia (Pettibone) 15.899
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Over

Game 977-978: San Diego at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 15.396; Baltimore (Tillman) 16.795
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-130); Under

Game 979-980: San Francisco at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 16.190; Toronto (Dickey) 15.211
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); Under

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Seattle Mariners at New York YankeesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Seattle MarinersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
When the Mariners send Felix Hernandez to the mound against CC Sabathia and the Pinstripes at Yankee Stadium Tuesday night Seattle will do so knowing the King is in commanding KW form with 40 strikeouts and only 3 walks in his last five starts. He is also 8-2 with a 2.19 ERA in his last ten-team starts in this series, including 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA the last five in New York. With the large lefty just 4-8 his last twelve home team starts during may, and Hernandez in a rare underdog role, look for the Mariners to steal the opener here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Seattle.

Jimmy Boyd

Dodgers/Nationals Over 6½

The total on this game is set far too low considering who is on the mound for tonight’s matchup. Dan Haren has been effective this season, but he has certainly not done so due to keeping runs off the board. Haren has a 5.17 ERA and has allowed 51 hits in 38.3 innings pitched this season. Haren has also allowed 8 home runs and has a 1.487 WHIP.

For the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw will get the start. Kershaw has a 4.32 ERA against Washington with a 1.320 WHIP. The Dodgers are batting .288 so they should have no problem providing Kershaw with the necessary run support. With both starting pitchers not having phenomenal numbers I expect this game to go over the total early on.

Art Aronson

Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

Haren (4-3, 5.17 ERA) gave up four runs off nine hits with one walk over six frames of work with three K's vs. the Tigers on Thursday, lucky to escape with the victory despite the somewhat sub-par effort (it's interesting to note that Haren was a poor 8-10 with a pedestrian 4.74 ERA in all "night games" a season ago). Haren will be opposed by Clayton Kershaw (3-2, 1.62 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over seven frames vs. the Diamondbacks last Wednesday, unfortunate to get saddled with the no-decision; he would strike out four and walk one (note that Kershaw was 11-9 with a 2.67 ERA in all "night games" last season, and 9-5 with a 2.05 ERA at Chavez Ravine). While not much more can be asked of Haren's overall performance this season, he's simply not in the same league as Kershaw. I feel the clear talent discrepancy on the mound justifies laying what is in fact a very reasonable price.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Cleveland Indians at Philadelphia PhilliesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Cleveland IndiansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The last time the Philadelphia faced Cleveland, the Phils might have asked for a police escort out of town two weeks ago when outscored 20-2 and outhit 31-8 in a two-game set at Progressive Field. The rematch comes at Citizens Bank Ballpark, but Cleveland is still pretty hot as it enters this midweek set, having won 12 of its last 15 overall. And Tuesday starter Scott Kazmir is looking for his third straight win. The well-balanced and hard-hitting Cleveland lineup led by Mark Reynolds & Co. will prove quite a challenge for young Phils starter Jonathan Pettibone, who was spared facing the Tribe lineup two weeks ago.

Jim Feist

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Texas Rangers

Bartolo Colon is looking his age with an 0-2 record and an 8.22 ERA his last three starts. Colon had nothing working during a 9-2 loss to Cleveland Thursday, allowing a season-high six runs on eight hits, while striking out four in four innings. It was the third straight start he allowed three or more runs. The Athletics are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter and red hot Texas comes to town with lefty Derek Holland (3-2, 2.54 ERA), who is on a roll with a 1.64 ERA his last three starts walking 2 and striking out 21! He is 4-2 in his career against Oakland with a 2.64 ERA, so grab the visitors and the Rangers are 21-7 in Hollands last 28 starts with 5 days of rest.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota TwinsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Chicago White SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The White Sox got a great performance out of Chris Sale on Sunday night, and figured to have a good shot at another win on Monday as they faced the ultra-mediocre Pedro Hernandez and the Twins. The Pale Hose wasted no time in jumping all over Hernandez, barreling the ball all over Target Field in the first inning. They only scored twice, but appeared well positioned to do plenty more damage.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
That didn't happen as the White Sox hitters decided patience was not a virtue and rather than burying Hernandez after a 33-pitch first inning, they started swinging early in the count and basically kept the guy in the game. And from there it was all downhill for the Sox. The defense was again beyond atrocious, with a botched double play ball right to Alexi Ramirez responsible for a four-run Twina frame where they should have gotten zero. Rookie Aaron Hicks had a monster game for the Twins, with two bombs and the best catch I've seen this season taking a two-run Adam Dunn homer off the board.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I'll tab the White Sox to rebound tonight, although I'll admit to some concern as this team is about as miserable as it gets fundamentally. But the pitching matchup is favorable, as Jake Peavy is going great guns and Kevin Correia is regressing to his norm following a very surprising April.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Peavy has been superb for Chicago. Great BB/K ratio, very solid current form, and he's even got a terrific history at this site. Correia has been featuring his cutter, and despite his very low K rate was putting some decent lines up. But the last couple have resembled the Correia we're used to seeing and he might be in fade mode moving forward.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The White Sox should be motivated for a better showing after how poorly they played on Monday night. Hopefully, they'll get their collective heads out of their collective butts and play a smarter game tonight. If they do, they'll have a very good chance to pick up a win for Peavy.

SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner for Tuesday night is on the Baltimore Orioles at home, against the San Diego Padres, who arrive at Camden Yards after a three-game set in Tampa Bay, where they were swept by the Rays by a collective 18-12 score.

The three-game skid marks the fourth time the Padres have lost three straight, as they stretched the skid past three game two of those times. With this one coming during a rather tough East coast swing, I can't imagine it gets any easier with the Friars back in another hotel, sleeping in a strange bed.

This is just the second time the Padres have been East of the Rockies, as they opened the season with three-game sets in New York, against the Mets, and then in Denver. San Diego went 1-5 in its first six games.

The O's, meanwhile, have won six of eight and seven of 10 and come into this series after taking two of three from the Twins in Minneapolis. Baltimore is just one game back of the first-place New York Yankees in the American League East, while it's holding off the Boston Red Sox, who are two games back of the Yankees and alone in third place.

This is a cheap number to lay on what appears to be a much-better Orioles team.

3* ORIOLES

SC Live Dogs

Boston Red Sox at +130

Why we like the Red Sox on Tuesday at +130...this is a Red Sox team that has been scuffling in May with a record of 4-8. A reason that we back them in this game is because of the fact that they are coming off of an off day. A veteran team such as the Red Sox who have not had an off day this month, who are banged up, and who have been losing games; Mondays day off may just have been what the doctor ordered for a team still in control of their own destiny this season. On the other side, the Rays have won their last five games but may see their winning streak end Tuesday as day offs have not been friendly to this franchise where they are 1-1 this season, and 16-16 over the last three seasons after a day off. The Red Sox will be pitching John Lackey who comes into this game with a 2.82 era on the year and is coming off of his best start of the season against the Twins where he allowed just 1 run on 6 hits, 8 Ks and 1 BB through 7 innings. More importantly is that Lackey has been extended from an innings standpoint which should give him some breathing room and save the Red Sox bullpen. That start could turn out to be a huge momentum booster not only for Lackey but also the Red Sox to give them the jolt that they have been looking for. The Rays will be pitching Matt Moore who comes into this game with a 6-0 record to match his 2.14 era but there is room for concern for Moore coming into Tuesday's game. In Moore's last two starts, he has seen his hits allowed total increase, his BBs allowed increase, his HRs allowed increase, while his K total decreased. With Moore coming off of five days of rest to make Tuesdays start, there is also a red flag knowing that the only other occurrence this season that Moore went on five days rest was on May 3rd against the Rockies where he allowed 4 runs through 5 innings on 7 hits, 2 HRs, 4 BBs and 3 Ks. If Moore's career trend is to follow suit, then it may be wise to fade him in May as in 2012, Moore went 1-4 with a 4.83 era and the trend continues with this May as he has already allowed a combined 6 runs on 13 hits, 3 HRs & 8 BBs on just 5 Ks through his 10 May innings. Moore faced the Red Sox twice in 2012 where he went 0-2 while allowing a combined 9 runs on 13 hits & 4 HRs through 12 innings. The Red Sox come in with the bullpen edge where they have a 3.35 road era where they have allowed just 6 HRs through 45 innings while the Rays have a 4.81 home era where they have allowed 9 HRs through 48 innings. A few trends to keep in mind for this game is that the Red Sox are 7-2 in road games with a total of 8 to 8.5 as well as being 3-0 against the Rays this season. The Rays come into Tuesdays game with an 0-6 record in Tuesday games in 2013.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Warriors at SpursFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
After the wild 129-127 overtime game in the series opener, the last three games of this series have fell well short of the posted total, and we'll look for tonight's Game Five to go Under as well. Both teams have reached triple-digits on the scoreboard just once each since that Game One, and the defenses seem to be getting better as this series moves forward with the Warriors and Spurs both shooting under 40% in Game Four. San Antonio seems to have found a way to slow Golden State down over the past two games and there has been a considerably slower game pace since that defensive evolution. Warriors are 33-16 Under on the road after an outright win as a home underdog, while the Spurs are 8-2 Under coming off an outright loss as a road favorite. Fatigue may be a factor coming off their second overtime game of this series and we look for both teams to fall short of the 100-point mark tonight.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Seattle Mariners vs. New York YankeesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Seattle MarinersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
This is a tough scheduling situation for the Yankees. New York finished a three-game sweep of the Royals in Kansas City and then had to travel to Cleveland yesterday for a doubleheader and now are back home to face the Mariners. The Yankees have won six of seven games and not only is the travel situation an issue but they face off against one of the best starters in the league. C.C. Sabathia takes the hill and he is again having a fine season with a 3.23 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through eight starts. He has allowed three runs or less in three straight starts and he faces a Mariners team he has dominated over the years but he has not squared off against Felix Hernandez though. Seattle has won three of its last four games and six of nine so it has been playing pretty well to get to just two games under .500. Hernandez is again having a dominant season as he is 5-2 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in eight starts. He has actually been more effective on the road than at home as he has a 1.25 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in five starts while going 4-1 in the process. Speaking of the road, Yankee Stadium has been a great place for him as he is 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in five starts. The Yankees are 7-15 in their last 22 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Steve MerrilFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Chicago vs. MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Minnesota continued their smoking hot offensive assault on Monday night as they put up 10 runs. Now they'll have to attack Jake Peavy of the White Sox. He is 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA in six starts for Chicago. Peavy faced the Twins back on April 20th allowing six hits in seven innings of work. Minnesota's offense has improved greatly since then as they’ve scored 55 runs in their last eight games. Brian Dozier (5-13), Joe Mauer (9-29) and Chris Parmalee (5-11) hit the righty hard. The Twins are hitting almost .280 in their last eight games and they are 9-8 at home. Chicago’s bullpen gave up a bunch of runs on Monday and they’ll be a little thin for tonight’s game.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Kevin Correia is glad to be home after two rough road starts. He has allowed just 6 runs in 29 innings pitched at home going 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in four starts there. Chicago has scored just 8 runs in their last three games and 21 runs in their last seven games overall. They are hitting .219 against right-handed starters and they are 7-12 on the road this season. Minnesota's bullpen has an ERA under 3.00 on the season and they continue to do good work. We'll take Minnesota in this game on Tuesday night.

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Rockies / Cubs Over 10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Jeff Francis and Carlos Villanueva are going to have some difficult conditions to deal with tonight at Wrigley Field. Gametime temps are going to be in the low 80s and winds will be blowing out to right center at 20-25 mph. Francis has not pitched a quality start since April 5, his first start of the season. Since then, Francis has allowed 27 runs, 22 earned, in 24 innings of work for an 8.25 ERA, including five home runs and 47 baserunners. Wrigley Field hasn't been kind to Francis in his four career starts there with an 8.44 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and .348 batting average against. That's obviously a small sample size, but the right conditions at Wrigley can make a lot of pitchers have that kind of line, and that's what we'll see on Tuesday night.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Carlos Villanueva has started to show signs of regression and those signs may reach a crescendo with the winds blowing out at Wrigley on Tuesday. So far this season, Villanueva has been fortunate with the conditions at home. After posting a 1.53 ERA over his first four starts, he has come back to earth and posted a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts. The Rockies are a very good lineup that has posted the fifth-highest wRC+ in the league on the road. Villanueva's batting average against is 37 points lower than his career average and his BABIP is 47 points lower than his career average. The league change partially explains some of the improvement with the pitcher hitting, but he's also gotten lucky this season, especially since he's inducing more ground balls. It's time for those to find some holes and any mistakes he makes have the chance to leave the ballpark.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Wrigley Field is already the best park for runs and doubles according to ESPN's Park Factor stats. Add in a warm day and winds blowing out to right field and it could be very fun night to be a hitter at Wrigley on Tuesday.

Ref Picks

Red Sox / Rays Over

The last time these two teams met the Red Sox swept, but these two teams are not the same teams that played. Tampa has since come alive and has since won their last 5 of 8. On the flip side Boston has lost 5 of their last 7 games... Tampa Bay's offense has truly come alive offering 6.4 runs on average in their last 14 games and 7.02 runs when Mr. Moore is on the mound. Don't let the 2.82 ERA fool you with Lackey, he hasn't had a brilliant season thus far. Take the over.