Dave Price
Kansas City Royals +112
The Royals are showing value in the underdog role with Jeremy Guthrie on the hill. The right-hander is 5-0 (6-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.28 on the season. The Royals have won each of his last 4 starts, and he's been nearly unhittable in his last 3, posting a 0.42 ERA. The Royals are 10-2 in Guthrie's last 12 starts as an underdog. The Angels are 5-11 in their last 16 overall, 1-5 in their last 6 home games and 3-10 in their last 13 games versus a right-handed starter. Take Kansas City.
Jeff Alexander
Tigers -1.5 -129
With yesterday's 7-2 victory, the Tigers improved to 5-0 versus Houston this season. These wins have come by an average of 6.8 runs with all but one covering the run line. Detroit lit Harrell up for 8 earned runs in 4 1-3 innings on its way to a 17-2 victory earlier this month, and I expect it to get to him again. Houston hasn't just had problems with the Tigers. It's 1-19 on the season versus teams that have a winning record and has lost these games by an average of 3.8 runs.
Steve Janus
Chicago White Sox -110
The White Sox are showing some amazing value here as a small road favorite. Chicago will send out Jake Peavy, who has been one of the few bright spots for this team in 2013. Peavy is 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.060 WHIP in six starts. He's been even better of late, posting a 2.21 ERA over his last three starts. Minnesota's Kevin Correia has pitched well so far, but he's shown signs of losing his touch. He's failed to pitch past the 5th inning of each of his last two starts and during that stretch has allowed 7 earned runs on 15 hits. Adding even more value here is the strong history Peavy has had against the Twins. He's 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA over 12 starts and has allowed a total of 4 earned runs over his last three starts (19 innings).
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas -107 over OAKLAND
Despite winning last night, the A’s are a team that is going to continue to go backwards because of an extremely weak hitting line-up. The A’s have a first baseman that is hitting .143 and four other regulars that are all hitting under .250. Oakland’s best hitter is Josh Donaldson (.301) but Donaldson is a career .251 hitter so there is likely regression coming from him too. You really have to admire and respect a guy who shows solid growth and posts career-best pinpoint control at such an advanced age. Oh... wait, it’s Bartolo Colon we’re talking about, a 40-year-old pitcher that has never seen a hamburger he didn’t like. Colon was crushed in his last start in Cleveland. His ERA is up to 4.57 and he’s allowed four jacks over his past two starts. In four home starts, Colon’s ERA is 4.26 and his xERA is 4.96. Colon will have some decent starts because of that pinpoint control but he’s a risk every time he takes the hill and he’s also extremely overvalued in this spot against the Rangers and Derek Holland.
We’re not sure the oddsmakers realize just how good Derek Holland is. Not only is Holland an intense, focused and determined pitcher that wants to thrive more than anyone, no pitcher works harder to improve his skills and it’s paying off. Over his last six starts, Holland has been taken yard just one time. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in five of his seven starts. Holland has a BAA of .222, a WHIP of 1.01, a groundball bias profile and 43 K’s in 49 frames. These are the seeds of an elite pitcher with outstanding skills right across the board, yet Derek Holland is being priced in the same range as #3 and #4 starters. Buy low my friends.
MINNESOTA +103 over Chicago
The White Sox are six games under .500 Their 123 runs scored are dead last in the AL and only ahead of the Marlins 108 runs scored in the entire league. The South Side is favored here because Jake Peavy comes in with strong past credentials to go along with a 3.03 ERA this season. He also has four wins in six starts and to his credit Peavy has 45 K’s and a 1.06 WHIP. However, he’s also been dealing with back spasms recently. His high strikeout rate likely will erode some since his 8.5% swinging strike rate is well less than the 11-13% marks he regularly posted at his peak. With a nagging back problem, Peavy may be good for six innings here if everything goes well but baseball is a nine inning game.
Kevin Correia has a favorable start here vs the White Sox. Correia has made four home starts in his young career as a member of the Twins, three of which has been pure quality. In two of those starts, he shut down good offenses (Rangers and Tigers). Today's opposing offense is the weakest in the AL, as the White Sox have just a .227 BA and are averaging only 3.4 runs per game. If the game is close heading to the final three innings, the Twins chances of winning increase greatly because of Minnesota’s superior hitting and a superior bullpen. In fact, Chicago’s bullpen has an ugly 1.42 WHIP to go along with an xERA of 3.93 while the Twinkies pen has a 1.17 WHIP to go along with a 3.50 xERA. The Twins have won six of 10 and they’re hitting .270 over that span while the South Side has Adam Dunn. Nuff said. Wrong side favored.
Cleveland -1½ +144 over PHILADELPHIA
Scott Kazmir is working on a three start pure quality start streak, which was highlighted by a 10 K performance his last time out against Oakland at Progressive Field. In this one, Kazmir visits the Phillies, who have been struggling to hit left-handed pitching (.220 BA against). Kazmir's surface stats—4.87 ERA and 1.43 WHIP—do not look appetizing, yet his 3.54 xERA, high strikeout rate and trending groundball bias profile are signs that this may be a comeback year. Over his last 12 innings covering two starts, Kazmir has allowed just 10 hits while fanning 17 batters. Remember, Kazmir threw 11 scoreless innings in the spring while leading the staff with 13 strikeouts aty one point before a minor injury sidelined him just before the start of the season. Prior to that, Kazmir had made one start in two years and here’s what he had to say about that, “I had time to take a step back and go back to the drawing board and kind of figure out what came naturally to me,' said Kazmir. 'With time off, it really helped me out. I was able to correct myself”. Kazmir made undisclosed mechanical adjustments and has gained 10 mph on his fastball. Kazmir looks great out there and he’s gaining more confidence with each passing start. This is a dangerous pitcher throwing for a strong hitting team and that’s a good combination.
Jonathan Pettibone comes in with a 2-0 record in his first four major league starts and he brings a respectable 3.63 ERA with him. Now is the time to sell high because at this park, he’s numbers are in for a big time correction. In those four starts, Pettibone has faced the Pirates and Marlins at home and the Mets and Giants on the road. That’s about the easiest four-game stretch he’ll ever see. A look under the hood reveals that Pettibone’s xERA is 6.23. In his last start he walked four batters while striking out just one and anything similar to that here and he’ll get buried. Pettibone has faced two weak hitting clubs at Citizen Banks Field and he’s pitched two games at two different pitcher’s parks. Pettibone is eventually going to pay the price for his unsustainable 83% strand rate and this is as good a spot as any to cash in on it.
SPORTS WAGERS
INDIANA -5½ over New York
The Knicks come into a pivotal Game 4 tonight in complete turmoil. For starters, this visitor, which has already struggled mightily on offense in the playoffs, has several key components battling various ailments and injuries. J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin have been listed as questionable since both missed the last two practices after being ill. Iman Shumpert, who played 37 minutes in Game 3, also missed the last practice with a sore left knee and will not be 100% entering this crucial contest. Lastly, Amare Stoudemire made a return in Game 3 and played well in his nine minutes on the court but has been ruled as out for Game 4. Even if he does make a surprise appearance, don’t expect anything more than 10 to 15 minutes of court time for S.T.A.T. Furthermore, Tyson Chandler has not so discretely called out Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith for turning away from the concept of team basketball, instead reverting to the isolation-heavy offense that defined their tenure in Denver. The Pacers on the other hand are playing the brand of team basketball that Tyson has pleaded for Carmelo and J.R. to start to play. The Pacers are built to defend teams that jack up shots from the perimeter, and that is what they have done every game, save for the second half of Game 2.
Importantly, the Knicks don’t have any true low post threat, unless Carmelo starts backing down his man. Tyson Chandler hasn’t been his usual bouncy self near the rim who converts on countless putbacks, tip-ins, and alley-oop chances. His range outside the paint is non-existent and Roy Hibbert has done a masterful job defending him so far in this series. Roy Hibbert and David West are simply too much for the Knicks to handle down low in the same way that Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph have proven to be too much for the Thunder front-court. Hibbert and West combined to go for 35 points and 24 rebounds in Game 3. They alone had more rebounds than the entire New York Knicks starting lineup, and that doesn’t even begin to include the strong rebounding efforts of Paul George, who has become a nightly triple-double threat in these playoffs. Lastly, we should mention that the Pacers are undefeated in the playoffs at home, and have won every game so far by double digits. Thus, in Game 4, expect the Pacers to again clamp down on the Knicks in another low-scoring affair. The Knicks are a tired looking team right now that is too banged up, both mentally and physically to compete at the Fieldhouse.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. vs. San Jose (Series)
LOS ANGELES -137 over San Jose
It’s often been said that the toughest round in the NHL playoffs is the first round and the Kings may have had the most difficult assignment of them all, having to face a very talented and dangerous Blues’ squad. Not only did the Kings fall behind 2-0 but let’s not forget they went on to win the next four games. There is not another team in these playoffs that had the ability to beat the Blue Notes in four straight games. If the NHL were in a 16-team playoff format, that being 1 versus 16, 2 versus 15, etc,..it is quite conceivable to have seen the Blue Notes and Kings playing for the Stanley Cup in the Finals. After the Blue Notes lost game five, Blues Coach Ken Hitchcock said, “We played great, probably our best game of the season.” Think about that for a second. The Blues, according to their coach, played their best game of the year and lost. Now the Kings get to start this round at home, where they have won 10 straight. L.A. is not only peaking again at the right time, they have their swagger and determination back. This team may even be better than last year’s Stanley Cup squad and they have not lost any desire. After defeating the hard-nosed Blue Notes, L.A. takes a big step down in class when facing these grossly overvalued Sharks.
San Jose is getting a whole lot of credit for defeating the Canucks in four straight. We say big deal. That series could’ve gone either way. Every game was close except one and Vancouver was in a position to win the other three. The Canucks took it to the Sharks for extended stretches and that’s without the Sedin twins producing anything. San Jose is not nearly as tough as the Blues, not mentally, not physically and certainly not talent wise either. The Sharks have a long history of bowing out of the playoffs once the going gets tough and we can guarantee you the going is going to get very tough in this series. Antti Niemi had a great series against Vancouver but don’t expect a repeat. Despite what the numbers say and what you might read somewhere else, Niemi is an average goaltender while Jonathan Quick has been nothing but pure money in the playoffs for two years running. From where we stand, this series is a complete mismatch. The Sharks have some scorers but they lack the key role players, they lack defense and they lack the grit it takes to advance. The Kings lack nothing. This is an outfit that is on a current 20-6 playoff run and there is little chance of this soft playoff foe getting in their way. The Sharks 7-day layoff won’t help either. Kings in Game 1 and Kings in the series in four straight, maybe five.
Ottawa vs. PITTSBURGH (Series)
Ottawa +251 over PITTSBURGH
The first round was highly entertaining with every series aside from Chicago/Minnesota being close in terms of the final scores and the quality of each teams’ play. One could argue that the Penguins were the luckiest (besides Chicago, who was not lucky just way better) of all to advance. Had the Islanders had anything resembling a goaltender, the Penguins would be watching the rest of these playoffs from the rail. Five on five, the Isles dominated the Penguins in every game, even the losses. Evgeni Nabokov could not come up with one big save the entire series and ended up with an embarrassing save percentage of .842. The Penguins didn’t win that series, they escaped that series by the hair on their chinny chin chins. The same fate does not await the Penguins in this series. Craig Anderson is rock solid and may just be the NHL’s premier netminder. He doesn’t even have to be great for the Senators to win this series. All Anderson has to be is good because the Penguins are not going to get the same opportunities or same soft goals that they got against the Islanders.
The Penguins have some serious weaknesses on defense and in net. They were often caught running around in their own end for prolonged stretches in every game and the Islanders turned those mistakes into offense. The Senators can do the same. Sure, the Pens are loaded offensively and without question, they have the league’s most dangerous power-play. However, the Senators are an extremely sound team that rarely makes mistakes. Every player has a role and plays it to near perfection. The Senators methodically wore down the Canadiens period by period and game by game. They got stronger as the series progressed and finished them off with an impressive 6-1 thrashing at the Bell Center. The Senators are not as offensively talented as the Islanders and they don’t have a superstar center like John Tavaras, but what they do have is depth throughout, a structured system that works, a superstar defenseman, a great goaltender and the ability and confidence to beat anyone. The Penguins are not an easy out but they are not built for playoff hockey like the Senators are. Lastly, the price on this series is completely ludicrous because the Senators have an equal chance of advancing to the next round. Ottawa has bene undervalued the entire season but never more so than in this series. With that, we’ll bet them in both Game 1 and in the series. Profit potential in this matchup is huge.