Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday May, 15

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets

The Brewers and Mets conclude a mini two-games series in New York Tuesday evening where Zach Greinke matches serves with Dillon Gee at Citi Field. Greinke has been like money in the bank in his home starts but has struggled mightily away from home, especially during the month of May where he is 3-12 in his career teams starts. With Greinke sporting a 7.20 ERA away from home this campaign, as opposed to 1.29 at home, look for Gee to improve to 7-1 in his career team starts during the month of May here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Tony George

Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat
Play: Indiana Pacers +7

Take the Pacers who look to get Danny Grainger involved tonight after his disappearing act in Game 1. Miami limps in here with a different gameplan with Chris Bosh out tonight and their presence in the middle is not the same and I think Indiana can exploit that. Miami has won 8 out of the last 10 in their series, but the Pacers sneaky good and if their frontcourt can play the way they did in game one with some outside help, this should be interesting and I will grab the points. This line opened at 7.5 and was hit hard early for a reason in my opinion.

Rob Vinciletti

Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -1.5

The line is well above 2-1 on Texas , however the run line offers solid value here. Texas fits a system that has won 15 of 19 times with 13 of the wins by 2 or more runs. We want to play on home favorites on the run line that are 200 or higher that are off a home favored loss at 140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent off a +140 or higher road dog win and scored 4 or less runs with 4 or less men left on base. KC will likely have their little win streak snapped here as Texas is also 16-1 as a home favorite if they lost by 1 run in their starters last appearance if their bullpen did not allow any runs in that loss. Texas is 9-2 the last 11 here vs KC and 9-1 as a home favorite of -225 or higher. They have won 7 of 9 vs losing teams too. KC is just 1-8 on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5. They didn't do any favors for Vin Mazzaro as he gets called up to make his first start here in Texas where he allowed 7 runs on 12 hits in 5+ innings in his lone start here. He opposes C. Lewis who has a solid 1.45 home era. Look for KC to be Texas toast here tonight.

Ben Burns

Yankees @ Orioles
Pick: Orioles +1.5

With the Yankees listed as mid-sized favorites vs. the moneyline, we're able to get the O's at a very fair price on the run-line. In a game which could easily be close the entire way, I feel that the extra +1.5 runs are providing us with some reasonable value.

Chen has quietly been very good. In fact, he's 3-0 with a 2.68 ERA. In three home starts, he's got a superb 2.21 ERA. The Orioles are 5-1 (+5.4) in his six starts overall. The lone loss came against these same Yankees - and it came by only a single run, 5-4.

Sabathia remains tough. He's 5-0 with a 3.51 ERA on the season and the Yankees are 6-1 (+4.8) in his starts. He's very stingy lately. That said, he's got a 4.82 ERA in four road starts. So, he's not unhittable. He gave up four runs on eight hits and two walks, in six innings, against the O's earlier this season. Consider backing Baltimore on the run-line.

Sean Murphy

Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Cleveland Indians

We won with the Indians last night, and we'll go right back to the well on Tuesday afternoon.

We've also made a habit of picking on Twins starter Jason Marquis, and why not do it one more time today. It's hard to say how many more opportunities we'll have, as he could be on his way to the bullpen, or even a stint in the minors if he doesn't pick it up soon.

Marquis resurrected his career with a strong start in Washington last season, but the wheels fell off near the end of his campaign, right around the time he joined the D'Backs. He's never gotten it back, going 2-2 with a 6.26 ERA to start the 2012 season. Keep in mind, this is a guy that's only two years removed from going 2-9 wiht a 6.60 ERA in 13 starts.

Target Field certainly hasn't been a good fit for Marquis, as he's posted a 7.16 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in two starts here this season. The Indians broke out of their offensive slump by scoring five runs last night, and should be able to pick up right where they left off today.

Tribe starter Derek Lowe has been outstanding with his new team, going 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA through seven starts. He's been doing a terrific job keeping the ball down in the zone, and as a result, opposing hitters have been grounding out with regularity. Are the Twins really the team to get to Lowe? Keep in mind, his last two starts have come against the hard-hitting Rangers and Red Sox, and he's given up a grand total of four earned runs in 12 innings.

The Indians may have the much weaker bullpen on paper, but as I mentioned in last night's analysis, the Twins numbers are somewhat skewed by the lack of pressure their relievers have faced. They simply haven't been involved in that many tight games, more often than not getting blown out of the water early, leaving the 'pen to do nothing more than minimize the damage. We saw their true colors last night, as closer Matt Capps allowed the game-winning run in the ninth inning.

The Indians have simply owned this series lately, going 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. Look for them to keep the train rolling on getaway day in Minnesota.

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: Atlanta Braves

The Reds cooled off the Braves last night, and they have a hot pitcher throwing tonight in Johnny Cueto. But the metrics indicate Cueto has been a bit on the fortunate side so far and there figures to be a correction coming. I'll go for the short chalk price and will back Tim Hudson and the Braves tonight.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

This Miami offense is bad, 23rd in baseball in runs scored, 27th in batting average (.233) and 25th in on-base percentage with no power. Starter Josh Johnson has struggled, with the former ace sporting an 0-3 record and a 5.87 ERA. And he's getting worse with a 7.80 ERA his last three starts averaging just 5 innings pitched. The Marlins are 15-37 in their last 52 home games vs. a right-handed starter and face Pittsburgh righty Kevin Correia (3.47 ERA).

David Banks

Clippers / Spurs Over 190.5

Similar to the Lakers vs. Thunder series, this series between the Los Angeles Clippers (44-29. 36-35 ATS) and the San Antonio Spurs (54-16, 45-21-4 ATS) also features a team playing with just one day off after playing Game 7 of its opening round series taking on a high seed that had had a prolonged rest following a sweep. To their credit, the Clippers won Game 7 on the road Sunday vs. a Memphis Grizzlies team that had been great at home all year. Unfortunately, the fifth seeds now get to take on the top-seeded Spurs, who have not played since last Monday night after making quick work of the Utah Jazz. Game 1 of this Western Conference semifinal is on Tuesday night from the AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX at 9:30 ET on TNT.

The Clippers were 7-point underdogs to the Grizzlies on Sunday after it had appeared that they had blown their chance to win that series in Game 6 at home, but instead they held Memphis to an atrocious 32.5 percent shooting in the ugly 82-72 win. That victory was keyed by the Clippers bench, as it scored 25 off the team's 27 fourth quarter points and outscored the Memphis bench 41-11 overall. And thus the Clippers have advanced to the second round for just the third time in 41 years, and they did it with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both playing hurt. Paul scored the only bucket by a starter in the fourth quarter while Griffin sat for much of the stanza, but it did not matter as Griffin's backup Kenyon Martin finished with 11 points and another backup, Nick Young, added 13. The Clips only shot 38.5 percent themselves, but that turned out to be good enough as the Grizzlies could not put the ball in the ocean while going an unbelievable 0-for-13 from three-point land. Now this short turnaround hurts with the two Los Angeles stars still nursing injuries, but it is reassuring that the bench can be relied upon when necessary.

The Spurs are one of the oldest teams in the NBA, so they probably did not mind the week off one bit. This team finished second in the league in scoring at 103.7 points per game led by its veteran trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, so that Clipper defense certainly has its work cut out for it. Speaking of defense, San Antonio finished just 16th in that department at 96.5 points per game during the regular season, but as you might expect from the veteran, well-coached group, it was able to turn up the heat when it had to, limiting the Jazz to just 86.2 points per game on 38.2 percent shooting during the first round. The Spurs can beat you in so many ways and that is why they own the best record in the NBA against the spread by a fairly wide margin, at 45-21-4, 68.2 percent. San Antonio has now won 14 consecutive games going back to the regular season and it is an incredible 25-2 straight up in the last 27 games, although it did have a 12-0-1 ATS run snapped when it failed to cover the fourth and final game of the Utah series on the road.

The Spurs have dominated this head-to-head series going 11-3 against the spread in the last 14 meetings including 2-1 both straight up and ATS this season, but the Clippers did win the last meeting 120-108 right here in San Antonio on March 9th. It should be noted though that the Spurs sat Parker in that game and that Duncan and Ginobili played limited minutes. The high score was nothing new however as the 'over' is now 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings here in the Lone Star State.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay -106 over TORONTO

The Blue Jays have dropped six of nine. Over that span, they lost two out of three to the two clubs with the worst records in the AL being the Angels and Twins. The Jays don’t have a player hitting .300. Brett Lawrie leads the team with a .288 average. The guys that they’re relying on most, Jose Bautista, Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus and Yunel Escobar are hitting .194, .184, .222 and .248 respectively. The Jays are making poor pitchers look good and now they’ll face one of the best in the game in David Price. Price posted outstanding numbers in 2010. In 2011, he blossomed into a true ace and he continues to excel this season with a 5-2 record, 15BB/39K’s in 45 IP, a 50% groundball rate and a 2.98 ERA. Henderson Alvarez is 3-2 with a 2.61 ERA but there are some concerns. He’s walked just 13 in 48 frames but his strikeout total of just 14 says he’s not missing many bats and is at the mercy of his defense. Alvarez’s last three starts have come against Minnesota, L.A. Angels and Seattle and that trio will skew anyone’s numbers to the good. Alvarez has plenty of upside but he’s still just 22 years-old, he’s had no AAA experience and that low strikeout rate suggests some struggles are likely. Play: Tampa Bay -106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

San Diego +202 over WASHINGTON

Price and total dictates play on the Padres. What we have here is a total of six meaning that this one could very well be decided by the pens. With that distinct possibility, we’ll gladly take our chances with Anthony Bass, a starter that is far under the radar. Bass went unnoticed when he was called up in 2011 and spent most his time in the bullpen. He posted a 1.68 ERA in 27 appearances but still didn’t get much recognition for that small sample playing in a small market. Now in the rotation, Bass looks even better. His good strikeout rate from the minors has returned. Bass's heavy ground-ball mix has also contributed to his success and projects well going into the future. His strand rate is normal has stabilized and his xERA say that his early-season success is the real thing. The Padres could conceivably win by scoring two runs and again, the price makes them very playable. Play: San Diego +202 (Risking 2 units).

Pass NBA/NHL

JEFF BENTON

Your Tuesday freebie is the Spurs to throttle the Clippers.

Are the oddsmakers underestimating the Clippers?

Los Angeles was able to go into Memphis on Sunday and win the series finale outright as the 7 1/2 point underdog, and now they head to San Antonio for tonight's first game priced as the 11 1/2 point pup!

Don't let this line tempt you, the Clippers are in for a world of hurt tonight against the healthy and rested #1 seeded Spurs.

San Antonio is riding a 14 game winning streak, and are 12-1-1 against the spread in those 14 games.

The Spurs won and covered two of the three season series meetings against the Clippers this year, and are 11-3 against the spread the last 14 times the teams have played one another.

As for the Clippers, Chris Paul appears to be back close to 100%, but Caron Butler is still playing with a broken non-shooting hand and more importantly Blake Griffin played less than two minutes of the fourth quarter on Sunday, as his knee injury has really limited him.

Vinny Del Negro's team is about to get taken to the woodshed tonight.

Book it!

5♦ SAN ANTONIO

WUNDERDOG

Cleveland at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota +120

The Cleveland Indians started last season turning some heads, and they did the same thing this year. Then all of a sudden, like last year, they have crashed and burned. The Tribe used a 16-7 run to once again look like a contender, but they have migrated back to the pretender that they truly are as they did a year ago. The Tribe has won just twice in their last seven as their pitching is beginning to be exposed, allowing over 6 runs per game in the process. This has been a rough spot for Cleveland, playing on the road to a high total of 9 to 10.5 where they are 6-15 in their last 21. Minnesota has been as advertised - a team that is going to lose a lot of games, but find themselves in a good spot here. Play on Minnesota.

Lenny Del Genio

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have now dropped four straight overall and five in a row at home following yesterday's 6-4 loss to the Cubs. Look for them to get back on track this afternoon behind Kyle Lohse. To say a win like Monday's is rare for the Cubbies is a bit of an understatement. Headed into yesterday's series opener, Chicago was a pathetic 3-21 as a road underdog of +150 to +175. As good as Paul Maholm has looked for the Northsiders over the last three starts, he does have a 6.10 ERA on the road and we'll be facing a St. Louis lineup that is 6-2 vs. southpaws in 2012, averaging 7.2 runs per game. The Cards have won six of starter Kyle Lohse's seven starts already as he's turned in a 2.08 ERA. Can't see the home team dropping two in a row to the lowly Cubs.

Jack Jones

New York Yankees -149

Few starters in this league have owned any one team quite like C.C. Sabathia has owned the Baltimore Orioles. I look for Sabathia to continue his success against the Orioles tonight as the Yankees look to pull withing a half-game of Baltimore in the AL East.

Sabathia has been brilliant again this season, going 5-0 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in seven starts. The left-hander is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in his last three outings. Sabathia is 16-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 23 career starts against Baltimore.

Wei-Yin Chen is off to a solid start for the Orioles, but teams are starting to get a scouting report on him now. Chen also gave up 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Yankees on April 10th, which resulted in a 5-4 New York victory. The Yankees are batting .288 and scoring 5.7 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2012.

Sabathia is 20-2 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are 50-18 in Sabathia's last 68 starts overall. New York is 12-1 in Sabathia's last 13 starts against the Orioles, including 8-0 in his last 8 starts at Baltimore. Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

MLB Predictions

Chicago White Sox -124

Not enough time here to get a full write up out, but we are looking at Jake Peavy on the mound for Chicago who has been stellar. Peavy is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and .189 opponents batting average. He has faced Detroit twice this season allowing just 5 earned runs against over his 14.1 innings of work. Also add to his impressive numbers his strikeout to walk ratio at 44 strikeouts and just 7 walks. Peavy has been one of the best pitchers in the American League, and although Scherzer has looked good at times I give Peavy a pretty big edge here this afternoon. Take the White Sox to sweep the Tigers in this 2 game series.

Rays / Blue Jays Under 7.5

Tampa Bay took game 1 of this series 7-1, mainly due to a mixture of poor defense and tough plays that allowed the Rays to have a big 5th inning. Tonight we see David Price on the mound vs the Blue Jays, who he loves to face. In 13 career starts vs Toronto Price is 10-2 with a 2.13 ERA. On the season he is 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .246 opponents batting average. He has faced Toronto once this year going 5.2 innings allowing 2 earned runs for the win. Henderson Alvarez takes the mound for Toronto and he has been sensational as of late. Over his last three starts he has gone 22 innings allowing just 2 earned runs, getting the win in all three. This season he is 3-2 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .227 opponents batting average. He did get hit around by Tampa Bay earlier this season allowing 6 earned runs on 6 hits in 6.1 innings of work, but he has come along way since that start allowing just 4 earned runs in his next 4 starts. The UNDER is 6-2-1 in the Rays last 9 road games, and 14-6-2 in their last 22 overall. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Jays last 6 overall, and 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog. Note that the UNDER is also 5-1 in Alvarez's last 6 starts as an underdog and 7-1 in his last 8 starts with a total set at 7-8.5. Toronto couldn't get their bats going last night and today they are facing a very good pitcher that has had their number in the past. Look for Price and Alvarez to control this game and keep it a low scoring tight game. I'm on the UNDER.