SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Boston (9-3 SU and ATS) at Orlando (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS)
The Celtics, coming off a Game 1 upset of the hottest team in the postseason, look to take complete control of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference finals series with a Game 2 victory over the Magic at Amway Arena.
Fourth-seeded Boston led by as much as 20 points in Sunday’s series opener, then held off a fourth-quarter Orlando rally in a 92-88 victory as a 6½-point road underdog, halting the Magic’s perfect playoff march and a 14-game win streak (13-1 ATS) that dated to the regular season. Ray Allen paced the Celts with 25 points, and Paul Pierce had 22 points and nine rebounds. Boston outshot Orlando 44.6 percent to 41.6 percent, hitting 33 of 74 from the field while the Magic made 32 of 77.
Dwight Howard had a double-double for No. 2 seed Orlando, but he was limited to just 13 points on 3-for-10 shooting and a 7-for-12 effort at the free-throw line, while collecting 12 rebounds. Vince Carter had 23 points, and Jameer Nelson added 20 points and nine assists in the losing effort. The Magic outrebounded Boston 45-38, including a 15-7 edge in offensive boards, but it wasn’t enough to dodge the upset for a team that had posted 10 double-digit routs during its 14-game winning streak.
Orlando is 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in the last seven meetings in this rivalry, including 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) this season, and the Magic also took out Boston in seven games in the second round of the 2009 playoffs. Going back to Game 7 of that series, the visitor and the underdog have covered in six straight in this rivalry, and Boston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight visits to Amway Arena.
The SU winner has cashed in all 12 of the Celts’ playoff contests and in 22 straight games overall for Doc Rivers’ team, and the SU winner is 16-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 17 overall.
Boston is 30-17 on the highway (54-21-1 ATS) this season (4-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs), with victories in its last three postseason roadies, as the Celts hammered top-seeded Cleveland in Games 2 and 5 in the second round. The C’s are averaging 98.4 ppg (47.8 percent shooting) away from Boston, while giving up 94.1 ppg (44.3 percent shooting).
Orlando is now 38-8 at home (27-18-1 ATS), including 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the playoffs, outscoring visitors by 12 ppg on the year (104.9-92.9), while shooting 48.3 percent and allowing 43.5 percent. Prior to Sunday’s setback, the Magic had won 11 straight (8-2-1 ATS) and 17 of their previous 18 (13-4-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.
Along with their 9-3 ATS mark in the postseason, the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 4-0 overall, 13-4-1 as a playoff pup (4-0 last four), 17-7 when catching five to 10½ points, 5-0 after a day off and 5-1 against the Southeast Division. Still, Boston is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 outings following a SU win.
The Magic remain on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 23-8-1 overall (13-2 last 15), 7-2-1 at home (all as a chalk), 23-6-1 as a favorite, 7-1 as a playoff chalk and 12-4-1 against winning teams, along with lengthy ATS streaks of 66-32-2 after a SU loss and 65-32-3 after a non-cover. Also, in last year’s six-game upset of the Cavaliers in the conference finals, Orlando went 5-1 ATS.
Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 6-2-1 overall (4-1 last five), 13-5-2 at home, 34-16-2 as a favorite, 8-2-1 as a playoff chalk, 38-12-1 after a non-cover, 26-9 after a SU loss and 36-14-1 after a day off. That said, in last year’s conference finals against Cleveland, the over hit in five of the six games.
Boston is on “under” rolls of 8-2 in conference finals contests and 4-1 after a one-day break, but is otherwise on “over” stretches of 6-2 after either a SU or an ATS win and 7-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in eight of the last nine clashes overall, including four of five this season. Also, the under is on a 10-3 tear between these two in Orlando, with Game 1 staying below the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (21-16) at San Diego (23-15)
For the third time this season and the second time in five days, the Padres’ Mat Latos (3-3, 3.32 ERA) squares off against Giants left-hander Jonathan Sanchez (3-3, 3.32) in the finale of a two-game series at Petco Park.
San Diego continued its mastery of the Giants with a 3-1 victory on Monday. The Padres have won all seven meetings this year while giving up a total of nine runs, holding San Francisco to two runs or fewer in every game. With Monday’s win, the Padres snapped a three-game overall and four-game home losing skid, and since opening the season 3-6, they’re 20-9 overall. Additionally, Bud Black’s team has won seven of eight against lefty starters, six straight on Tuesday and 21 of 26 when playing the second game of a series.
The Giants had their modest three-game winning streak halted last night. Bruce Bochy’s crew has won eight of 11 against right-handed starters, but it is otherwise in slumps of 0-5 against the N.L. West, 1-6 versus winning teams and 36-75 on the road against winning teams.
Not only has San Diego won all six meetings with the Giants this year, but it is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings overall and 11-2 in the last 12 clashes in San Diego.
Sanchez has dropped a pair of 1-0 decisions to Latos and the Padres this season, with the lefty giving up just the two runs on four hits and four walks with 15 strikeouts in 15 innings. On Wednesday in San Francisco, Sanchez matched a season best by going eight innings and scattering three hits and a walk. He’s now held four of his last six opponents to one run or less, and going back to last year he’s held eight of his last nine opponents to three runs or fewer.
Behind Sanchez, the Giants are in funks of 1-4 overall, 7-19 when he starts on the road, 3-8 on Tuesday, 4-14 when he pitches the second game of a series and 2-4 against San Diego. Including a no-hitter on July 10 at home, Sanchez has posted a 1.53 ERA in his last five starts against the Padres (six runs allowed in 35 1/3 innings), but for his career, he’s 2-4 despite a stellar 2.37 ERA in 15 appearances (eight starts) versus San Diego, including 1-3 with a 3.12 ERA in eight games (five starts) at Petco Park.
Latos came within an eyelash of pitching a perfect game – and notching the Padres’ first no-hitter ever – in Wednesday’s 1-0 win in San Francisco. The young right-hander gave up just an infield single – on a ball that ticked off his glove – while whiffing six in recording the first complete game of his career. Over his last two starts – including a 7-0 win in Houston – Latos has given up just three hits and no walks in 17 innings, striking out 15. And in three starts this month, he’s 2-1 with a 0.78 ERA (two runs allowed in 23 innings), yielding just a pair of solo home runs in a 2-1 home loss to the Brewers.
In outdueling Sanchez in a 1-0 home win back on April 20, Latos limited the Giants to four hits and one walk in seven innings. So in two career appearances against San Francisco, he’s surrendered a total of five hits and one walk in 16 scoreless innings.
San Francisco had topped the total in four straight road games before Monday’s contest stayed below the total, and the Giants are on further “under” streaks of 4-1-2 overall, 10-1-1 against N.L. West rivals, 10-4-1 versus right-handed starters, 5-1 in Sanchez’s last six starts overall, 6-2-1 in his last nine road outings and 4-0 in his last four starts against the N.L. West.
San Diego carries “under” trends of 39-18-4 overall (9-0-1 last 10), 4-0 at home, 36-16-2 versus division foes, 20-8 on Tuesday, 4-0 versus southpaw starters and 20-6-2 against teams with a winning record. Also, the under is 4-1 in Latos’ last five starts overall and 5-2 in his last seven home efforts.
Finally, the under is 16-5-1 in the last 22 Padres-Giants clashes overall (8-0-1 last 11), 6-0 in the last six meetings at Petco and 5-0 in Sanchez’s last five starts against San Diego.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (19-20) at N.Y. Yankees (25-13)
Josh Beckett (1-1, 7.46) once again tries to snap out of his season-long funk when he matches up against Yankees ace CC Sabathia (4-2, 3.71) in a rematch of an Opening Night duel, with this one taking place at Yankee Stadium.
New York scored a wild 11-9 victory in Monday’s opener of this brief two-game series, first blowing a 5-0 first-inning lead, then rallying for four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Facing Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon, the Yankees entered the ninth down 9-7 when Alex Rodriguez hit a one-out, two-run, game-tying home run, and three batters later Marcus Thames connected on a two-out, two-run, walk-off homer.
The Yankees have now won 14 of the last 17 against Boston, including five of seven this year. On top of that, the Red Sox have now dropped eight straight games at Yankee Stadium.
Overall, Boston has lost three in a row and four of its last five, and it has been miserable away from Fenway Park recently, going 1-6 in its last seven road games). Additionally, Terry Francona’s club is in slumps of 9-20 against A.L. East rivals, 6-19 versus opponents with a winning record and 2-6 on the road against lefty starters. On the bright side, the Sox have won 38 of 56 on Tuesday.
New York is still just 4-5 in its last nine games, which comes after a six-game winning streak, but the defending champs are still 13-3 in the Bronx this season. Furthermore, the Yankees are on positive streaks of 101-44 overall, 51-12 at home, 45-15 versus division foes, 40-16 in the second game of a series, 65-25 against right-handed starters, 45-11 at home versus righties and 16-5 on Tuesday. Also, 35 of the Yankees’ 38 games this season – including all 25 of their victories – have been decided by multiple runs.
Beckett (back injury) was scratched from last week’s scheduled start against Toronto and he hasn’t pitched since May 7, when the Yankees destroyed him for nine runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings en route to a 10-3 road win. Beckett has yielded five runs or more in four of his seven starts, and over the past four outings he’s been touched up for 26 runs (all earned) in 22 1/3 innings (10.48 ERA).
Beckett has actually been better on the road this year (1-0, 6.88 ERA in three games) than at home (0-1, 7.88 ERA in four starts). Also, he was tremendous in his only start at new Yankee Stadium last year, pitching seven shutout innings but failing to get a decision in Boston’s 2-0, 15-inning loss. Since then, Beckett has faced the Yankees three times – all at Fenway Park – and given up 22 runs (all earned) in 18 innings (11.00 ERA). So in 19 career regular-season starts against New York, he’s now 9-6 with a 5.96 ERA.
Like Beckett, Sabathia is coming off his worst start of the season, Wednesday’s 6-0 loss in Detroit. The hefty lefty surrendered all six runs on nine hits in six innings. Prior to that, Sabathia had allowed 11 earned runs in his previous six starts covering 37 1/3 innings (2.65 ERA). That includes his only two home starts, with Sabathia going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA (two runs allowed in 14 innings). Also, despite the outing in Detroit, the Yankees are still 22-6 in Sabathia’s last 28 trips to the mound, 11-1 in his last 12 at home, 4-0 in his last four against the A.L. East and 5-1 in his last six on Tuesday.
Sabathia pitched opposite Beckett on Opening Night in Boston and was staked to a 5-1 lead but couldn’t hold it, allowing five runs in 5 1/3 innings and getting a no-decision in his team’s 9-7 loss. Then on May 8, Sabathia was one strike away from finishing the fifth inning – and qualifying for a win – when a long rain delay ended his day. He ended up surrendering three runs on four hits in 4 2/3 innings, with the Yankees cruising to a 14-3 victory. Including two ugly playoff contests when he was with the Indians, Sabathia is 5-7 with a 4.45 ERA in 15 lifetime starts against the Sox.
The under is 11-6-3 in Boston’s last 20 games on the road and 5-2 in Beckett’s last seven Tuesday contests. However, the Sox have topped the total in four of five against southpaw starters, 13 of Beckett’s last 18 starts overall and eight of Beckett’s last 10 against the A.L. East.
New York is on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 18-9-1 at home and 12-3-1 when Sabathia pitches at Yankee Stadium. Conversely, the over is 5-0 in the Yankees’ last four against A.L. East rivals, 4-1-1 in their last six on Tuesday and 5-1 when Sabathia pitches against divisional opponents.
Lastly, the over has cashed in six of seven meetings between these teams this year, and five of Beckett’s last seven starts against New York have soared over the total. However, the under is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head battles in the Bronx.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
DUNKEL INDEX
Boston at Orlando
The Celtics look to follow up their Game 1 win and build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog of 5 to 10 1/2 points. Boston is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+7 1/2)
Game 505-506: Boston at Orlando (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 127.525; Orlando 127.073
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 7 1/2; 189
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+7 1/2); Under
MLB
Minnesota at Toronto
The Blue Jays look to bounce back from yesterday's 8-3 loss and build on their 6-1 record in Shaun Marcum's last 7 starts against the AL Central. Toronto is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120)
Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 13.617; Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.866
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130); Over
Game 953-954: Arizona at Florida (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Buckner) 14.337; Florida (Johnson) 15.919
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-200); Under
Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.805; Philadelphia (Halladay) 17.806
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-300); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-300); Over
Game 957-958: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 15.765; Atlanta (Medlen) 14.426
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120); Over
Game 959-960: Colorado at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 14.377; Cubs (Silva) 15.164
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-115); N/A
Game 961-962: Washington at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 15.597; St. Louis (Carpenter) 14.626
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-260); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+220); Over
Game 963-964: San Francisco at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 16.285; San Diego (Latos) 15.479
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-110); Over
Game 965-966: Houston at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 15.207; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.118
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+180); Over
Game 967-968: Minnesota at Toronto (12:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pavano) 15.824; Toronto (Marcum) 16.805
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Under
Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 15.040; Detroit (Porcello) 17.216
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Under
Game 971-972: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 16.434; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.603
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-250); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+210); Over
Game 973-974: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 16.424; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.300
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+170); Under
Game 975-976: Kansas City at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 15.220; Baltimore (Millwood) 14.085
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under
Game 977-978: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.254; Texas (Wilson) 16.172
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Over
Game 979-980: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.936; Oakland (Sheets) 13.530
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Over
NHL
Chicago at San Jose
The Sharks look to bounce back from their 2-1 loss in Game 1 and build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in the previous game. San Jose is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Sharks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-140)
Game 55-56: Montreal at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.790; Philadelphia 12.672
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+135); Over
Game 57-58: Chicago at San Jose (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 13.154; San Jose 13.303
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-140); Over
Marc Lawrence
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
When the Red Sox send Josh Becket to the mound in New York against C.C. Sabathia and the Yankees Tuesday night they will do so knowing Beckett is 6-3 in his career team starts in New York against the Pinstripes. He's also cashed 14 of his last 20 team starts in May. At this price, look for Sabathia to fall to 6-10 in his career team starts against Boston here tonight.
Steve Merril
Mets vs. Braves
Play: Under 8
Johan Santana has had some odd games with the Atlanta Braves as he is just 1-5 in eight career starts against them. But he owns a 2.21 ERA in those games as seven of the eight have gone Under the total. Santana went just 1-2, but he had a 1.33 ERA in three starts against Atlanta last season. The lefty has good numbers against Omar Infante (3-27), Nate McLouth (2-13), Melky Cabrera (2-10), Eric Hinske (0-5), and David Ross (0-3). Atlanta, as a team, is hitting just .230 against lefties this season scoring just 3.7 runs per game. Atlanta's offense has been hideously inconsistent, especially against the rest of their division. They are hitting .210 against the N.L. East going Under in 10 of their 13 games against them. New York’s Kris Medlen's first start went tremendously well outside of the fact that he didn’t go long enough to get the victory. The righty gave up one run and nine hits in 4.3 innings of work against Philadelphia. In four career relief appearances against the Mets, Medlen has worked 6.3 scoreless innings surrendering just six hits. Luis Castillo (0-3), David Wright (0-2), Fernando Tatis (0-1), Jose Reyes (0-1), and Angel Pagan (0-1) are all hitless against Medlen. The Mets are hitting .221 on the road while scoring just 3.9 runs per game. All four of the games between these two teams have gone Under the total so far this season, and we expect more of the same here so we’ll recommend a play on the Under in this spot.
Rob Vinciletti
Royals vs. Orioles
Play: Under 7.5
Both of these teams are anemic offensively. Tonight they both have quality starters going. The Royals have their ace Z.Greinke on the hill tonight. Greinke has been good in his last 2 starts vs the Orioles allowing just 2 runs in 13 innings. In his last 5 starts vs Baltimore he has gone under in 4 of them. In his 4 road starts this season 3 of them have played under. Baltimore counters with veteran righty K.Millwood. In his 7 starts this season Millwood has gone under 6 times. Even more impressive he has allowed just 3 runs in his last 20 innings when pitching vs KC.. Both teams have have trouble scoring in night games this year. The Orioles are averaging 3.1 runs per game and KC is averaging 3.3 runs per game. With 2 good pitchers and 2 teams that struggle to score look for another low scoring affair tonight.
BIG AL
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees
C.C. Sabathia will get the start for the Pinstripes tonight, and he's been virtually unhittable in the Bronx this year. In 2 starts, the big lefty has given up just 2 walks and 9 hits in 14 innings, and also just 2 runs, for a 1.29 ERA and an incredible 0.78 WHIP. In stark contrast are Josh Beckett's numbers: 7.46 ERA, 1.65 WHIP in seven starts. Beckett's last start -- also vs. the Yankees -- wasn't pretty, as he gave up nine earned runs in a 10-3 loss. Beckett lasted just 5 1-3 innings in that game, and he was also ineffective vs. New York to open the season (though Boston survived to win that game 9-7). Still, Beckett surrendered 5 runs in just 4 2-3 inning in that game, and if you go back to last season, he gave up 8 runs in 8 innings in an 8-4 loss on August 23. To say that the Bronx Bombers have had Beckett's number of late would be an understatement. The Yankees are a super 77-28 at home over the last two years, including 36-9 when priced from -175 to -250. Lay the wood with the Yankees.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Montreal Canadiens @ Philadelphia Flyers
PICK: Montreal Canadiens
In Game 1 of its Round 2 series vs. the Penguins, Montreal lost 6-3; it bounced back with a concerted effort on both ends of the ice and won 3-1 in Game 2; I believe this contest will follow suit.
I have to admit, I was surprised how flat the Canadiens came out and played in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
After shutting down the offensively minded President Cup trophy winners in Round 1, and the defending Stanley Cup Champs in Round 2, the physical Flyers pounded the Habs into submission on Sunday.
No doubt Philadelphia poses a different challenge for this team; simply put, its much bigger.
Montreal has shown incredible heart and hustle to get to this point, but must make changes to its game plan in Game 2 to create traffic in front of Philadelphia's net.
On the other side of the ice: Backup and now starter Michael Leighton has played great to this point; however I expect a letdown against a determined Canadiens team.
To say Philadelphia has been "over-achieving" would be an understatement; never mind the injury to Brian Boucher, this team is still missing Jeff Carter and Ian Laperriere.
Bottom line: In my opinion the most important thing that the Habs have done to make it as far as they have, more than all of their blocked shots, or the stellar goaltending they've received, or anything else they've done to get to this point, has been their ability to make key/necessary and sometimes subtle adjustments on both the offensive and defensive ends of the ice; a testament to Jacques Martin's coaching.
Jaroslav Halak has consistently played at his best after a sub par effort all season; I believe this will be the case once again.
Montreal is 5-1 (+9 units) when trailing in a playoff series while Philadelphia is 3-4 (-2 units) after shutting out its opponent in its previous game; when taking all of the above into account, the CANADIENS offer great value in this situation.
JIM FEIST
KANSAS CITY ROYALS / BALTIMORE ORIOLES
TAKE: KANSAS CITY ROYALS
A pair of aces on the mound, despite the combined records of 1-8. Zack Greinke of the Royals has a 2.73 ERA and a 1-4 record. He has a sizzling 44-10 strikeout to walk ratio and has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. Kevin Millwood and the Orioles are the favorite here, though he is 0-4 because this offense is terrible, second to last in the AL in runs scored. Baltimore was just a -145 favorite against the Indians and lost 8-2. Play the Royals.
Bobby Maxwell
Seattle at OAKLAND (+120)
I'm on a 96-77-3 run with my FREE plays and tonight I'm coming with an American League winner on the A's as they host the Mariners in Oakland.
The A’s took the series opener on Monday, 8-4, and they’ll win this one too as the Mariners just don’t have any punch in that offense.
Oakland’s Ben Sheets is on the hill and he is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA at home this season. Even though the A’s lost his last start, he was magnificent, giving up one run on three hits over six innings of a 2-1 loss at Texas, striking out eight. He’s been brilliant at home this season, giving up four runs in three starts and leading the A’s to wins over Tampa and Baltimore.
Sheets faced the Mariners on April 5 and gave up three runs (two earned) on four hits over five innings, but the A’s fell 5-3.
Felix Hernandez goes for the Mariners and he’s slumped lately, going 0-2 in his last three outings with a 7.98 ERA. Seattle has dropped his last four outings and he’s given up 14 runs in his last three starts, covering 14.2 innings. In his last two starts in Oakland, he’s allowed eight runs over 11.2 innings.
The A’s have won four of the six meetings this season and they are 4-1 at home against Seattle this season, and they’ve won six of seven at home against them dating back to last September.
Seattle has lost five of six on this road trip and they are on slides of 3-13 after a loss, 5-17 overall, 1-7 as a favorite and 0-5 in the second game of a series.
Oakland is 5-1 at home, 4-0 at home against right-handed starters and 5-1 as a home ‘dog. Play Sheets and the A’s in this one as they continue to give the Mariners problems.
4♦ OAKLAND
MTi Sports
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: New York Mets
The Mets are 10-0 with Johan Santana starts when he is off a quality start in which they lost and the Braves are 0-4 at home after a one run loss. Consider the Mets.
Matt Fargo
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Kansas City Royals
The Royals win the opener of this series last night to make it four wins in the last five games and that momentum is big as they looking to carry this run forward with their ace on the hill. That win snapped a five-game road losing streak where Kansas City sits at 8-13 on the season. That is not the ideal record to be backing here but Baltimore is not much better at home as it is also five games under .500 with a 7-12 record. Last night was the third straight loss for the Orioles where they have scored a total of six runs and I don’t see that improving here. Despite another solid start to the season, Zack Greinke got his first win of the year in his last outing which was another quality performance, his fifth straight and six in eight trips to the mound this season. He has a 2.73 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the season, the former being 11th best in the league. Run support has been the reason for the lack of wins but Kansas City is hitting the ball well once again and more importantly, scoring runs. Greinke’s overall numbers against the Orioles are not good but that came early on as last season he posted a 2.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in two starts against Baltimore. Kevin Millwood counters for the Orioles and he too has been solid but is not getting wins due to a lack of run support. The difference here is that Baltimore as mentioned is not scoring runs so there is no reason to think it turns around tonight. Millwood is coming off a rough outing against the Mariners and even though Baltimore pulled out the win, he remains winless at 0-4 on the season. The Royals are 6-2 in Greinke’s last eight road starts against a team with a losing record while the Orioles are 17-35 in their last 52 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Also, Baltimore is just 13-38 in its last 51 games following a loss. 3* Kansas City Royals
SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI –1½ +1.56 over Milwaukee
Note the 12:35 PM EST start. The Brewers are in big, big trouble. They sent out its ace last night, Yovani Gallardo and were crushed 6-3 (it was 6-1 going to the ninth). The Brewers have now dropped seven straight and they’ve allowed eight runs or more in five of those seven losses and have been outscored 57-23. Now the Brewers are making the call to the bullpen for today’s starter, Manny Parra. Parra has been given many opportunities to start and it’s not like this rotation is a tough one to crack with Dave Bush, Doug Davis and Christopher Narverson in it. In fact, one could argue that the Brewers possess the worst rotation in the majors and perhaps the worst bullpen too. Over the last 10 games, the Brewers pen has an ERA of 7.88 over the final three innings. Anyway, Parra was sent to the minors last season after he compiled a 5.17 ERA in 140 IP and a close look at his numbers over the years is rather horrifying at hitter friendly venues. At Philadelphia his career ERA is 16.88, at Wrigley it’s 9.00, at Coors Field it’s 11.57, at Dolphin Stadium it’s 22.50, at Minute Maid it’s 6.41 and at Great American it’s 5.73. Parra has started 58 games in the majors before this year and has been used exclusively out of the pen this year. He’s had four good outing in 10 appearances and a close look at that reveals that he pitched well when the Brewers were up 20-0 against Pitt and then two days later when they were up 17-3. His next two strong appearances occurred when the Brewers were down 8-1 against the Cubbies and subsequently when they won in Arizona 17-3. This guy pitches well when there’s a 10-run winning or losing margin. In all of his other appearances he was shaky as hell and that’s precisely what you can expect today. The Reds are the hottest team in the majors with nine wins in its last 10 and for the first time in years, this team can’t wait to get to the park. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.56 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.08 over CHICAGO
The Cubbies have won two in a row but this is another team in big, big trouble. The Cubbies are an older squad that really is below average at everything they do. They, too, have a toxic pen and that pen is very likely to get called upon here. Carlos Silva is 4-0 with a 3.40 ERA in seven starts and while that’s very nice, it’s not going to last. This guy is not a winning pitcher, never has been and never will be. Despite his decent numbers, his charmed life is about to come to an end at any time. Silva has been extremely fortunate but you can see it beginning to unravel. He’s allowed 25 hits over his last 16 frames and LH’s have absolutely crushed this guy. Carlos Silva is the reason that Carlos Zambrano’s bullpen stint will not be permanent. The sample size is small for Jhoulys Chacin but his numbers are not. He has six walks and 19 K’s in 20 innings of work. Prior to his last start he did not allow a single runs in 15.1 innings. He certainly does not have overpowering stuff but he features a great changeup and he throws strikes and that alone gives him a great chance for success especially against a team like the Cubs. The Cubbies as a favorite with Silva on the hill is about as risky as it gets and all the value here is on the Rocks. Play: Colorado +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City –1.09 over BALTIMORE
Does this one really need much explanation? Here we have one of the top five pitcher’s in the game laying a dime against one of the two worst teams in the AL. Greinke is 1-4 because of poor run support but Camden Yards is one of the better hitting parks in the AL and that has to work to Greinke’s advantage because the chances of Kevin Millwood allowing runs is much higher than Greinke’s chances. Furthermore, the Royals have woke up with four wins in five games since firing its manager while the O’s continue to lose at an alarming rate. Millwood has been pitching good but he’s not in the same caliber as Greinke, not even close and the Royals know him well with a combined 227 AB’s against him. Play: Kansas City –1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Karl Garrett
Kansas City (-110) at BALTIMORE
G-Man with another comp play winner last night, as the underdog Mets edged the Braves. Now 8-3 the last 11 days with my comp plays.
American League comp play winner tonight on Kansas City over Baltimore.
KC has been getting results with new manager Ned Yost, as the Royals have won their last pair of games, and 4 of their last 5. I expect them to get another solid start from Zack Greinke who finally recorded his first win of the season his last time out.
Greinke's ERA has been very respectable at 2.73, so you know it is just a matter of time before the wins start to pile up once again.
Kevin Millwood opposes, and the veteran righty is winless at 0-4 for the season. His last start saw the M's get to him for 5 earned in 7 home innings, and I have a feeling the Royals will get to him as well.
Baltimore has dropped their last 3, and are only 7-12 at Camden Yards for the season.
G-Man on the Royals to roll.
5♦ KANSAS CITY
Brett Atkins
Tonight I have an American League free winner for you as I go with the home team A's as they host the Mariners in Oakland.
Oakland has been dominating the Mariners at home this season, winning four of the last six and getting Monday’s first game of the series 8-4.
Ben Sheets is on the mound for the A’s tonight and he’s 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA at home this year. He allowed just one run on three hits over six innings of a 2-1 loss at Texas, striking out eight. At home this season, he’s allowed a total of four runs in three starts and has lead them the A’s to wins over Tampa and Baltimore.
Felix Hernandez is on the hill for the Mariners and he’s been getting rocked lately, allowing 14 runs in his last three starts for an 0-2 record and 7.98 ERA.
Oakland is 5-1 at a home underdog and 4-0 at home against right-handed starters. Meanwhile the Mariners are 5-17 overall and 1-7 as a favorite. Grab the plus-money and go with the A’s tonight..
4♦ OAKLAND
Joel Tyson
NBA Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and after a low-scoring contest on Sunday, 8 of the last 9 meetings between the teams have stayed under the posted total.
Which way you think I am going tonight?
That's right, have to play Game 2 under the posted total as well.
Orlando is now on a 6-2 under tear their last 8 playoff games, while Boston has stayed under in 5 of their last 8 this postseason.
The Celtics know the best way for them to win this series is to NOT allow the Magic to get too comfortable from behind the arc. That being the case, have to play the under until I see more evidence of an over trend.
Go low in Game 2.
4♦ UNDER