Craig Davis
Last night I gave you the UNDER on the Yankees and Boston and I was dead wrong. I've come to the conclusion that these are like two prize fighters who refuse to go down. Just when you think the Yankees have it wrapped up, the Red Sox hit three home runs and surprisingly take the lead. Then when the Sox bring on Jonathan Papelbon, you think the Yankees have no chance down two. Then two, two-run homers in the bottom of the 9th and the Yankees win 11-9. I give up. There is no way any of these games is going to go under the total, no matter who is pitching. And today will be no different, even though Josh Beckett and CC Sabathia are on the hill. Remember, Beckett absolutely sucks against the Yankees with an ERA over 6.00. Meanwhile, CC Sabathia is only 5-5 against the Red Sox in his career and gave up 4 ERs in his last start vs. Boston. Look at this series thus far and you'll see what I'm talking about. Listen to these scores this year... 11-9, 9-3, 14-3, 10-3, 3-1, 6-4, and 9-7. Today's total is 9 and if you look at all those past scores from this year, only one of them went UNDER that number. Why should it be any different today?
2♦ Red Sox-Yankees OVER
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -130
The Chicago White Sox are in shambles right now. They just lost two out of three to the lowly Kansas City Royals and they have lost three straight series overall to drop their record to 15-22 for the season. The Tigers have taken three out of four from the Yankees and two out of three from Boston the past two series and are currently playing their best ball of the season. Detroit sits at 22-16 this year. The Tigers are 14-5 at home while the Sox are 6-12 on the road.
Freddy Garcia has been atrocious on the road this season, going 1-1 with a 7.31 ERA and 1.812 WHIP in three road starts. Garcia has allowed 13 runs, 22 hits and 7 walks in 16 innings away from home. Tigers' starter Rick Porcello has been a completely dominant starter at home, going 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA in four home outings. The Tigers are 8-2 in Porcello's last 10 home starts. The White Sox are 11-27 in their last 38 games as a road underdog. Take Detroit Monday.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Texas starter C.J. Wilson has allowed 5 runs total in his last 5 starts. The Rangers are 7-1 their last 8 home games. Texas is 7-2 their last 9 games as favorites. The Rangers are 7-3 off a win and they are 5-0 their last 5 games vs. losing teams. Angels starter Jered Weaver has lost two of his last 3 starts. Los Angeles is 3-7 their last 10 games in Texas. The Angels are 2-9 their last 11 road games and they are 2-6 their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 1-4 in the last 5 road starts made by Weaver.PLAY ON TEXAS
Black Widow
1* on Chicago Cubs -110
The Cubs are finally getting some confidence after back-to-back late-inning wins over both the Pirates and Rockies. Now they send undefeated starter, Carlos Silva, to the mound Tuesday as he keeps the momentum going against the Rockies. Silva is 4-0 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.205 WHIP this season for the Cubs, and Chicago is 6-1 in his seven starts this year. Jhoulys Chacin was impressive in his first two starts of the season for Colorado, but his third start proved that it may have been a bit of fool's gold. Chacin was rocked for 6 earned runs and 2 home runs in 5 innings of a 6-14 loss to the Washington Nationals in his last start on May 13th. The Rockies are 2-10 (-8.5 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Colorado is 0-7 (-8.5 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Silva is 27-13 (+14.3 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game since 1997. The Cubs are 19-0 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 3 seasons. By the time it gets to the Rockies' bullpen tonight the Cubs will already have a subsantial lead as they tee off on Chacin. Take the Cubs on the Money Line.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -122
The Rangers are off to a 14-7 start at home, and I look for their home dominance to continue behind Wilson tonight. He's 3-1 on the season with a 1.66 ERA, including a perfect 2-0 at home with an even lower 1.55 ERA. And the Rangers have won his last 5 starts. The Angels are just 6-11 on the road, and they have struggled against southpaw starters, hitting just .236 and scoring only 3.2 runs per game against them this season. The Angels have also lost 7 of their last 10 in Texas. They do send ace Jered Weaver to the mound, but they are 0-5 in his last 5 road starts vs. the Rangers. Take Texas.
EZWINNERS
New York Yankees -183
The Red Sox starting pitcher is off to a very slow start this season and currently has an ERA of 7.46 for the year. Beckett has been even worse in two starts against the Yankees this season. In those two starts, Beckett is 0-1 with a 12.60 ERA. In ten innings of work against New York Beckett has allowed fourteen earned runs on seventeen hits and six walks. He has been suffering from back problems and I sure don't expect him to turn things around today against CC Sabathia and a Yankees lineup that has hit him very hard this year. The Bronx Bombers have won fourteen out of the last seventeen meetings between these two teams and I expect those winning ways to continue. Play on New York.
Rocketman
NY Mets @ Atlanta
Play: Atlanta +105
NY Mets are 11-28 last 3 years on the road when the money line is -100 to -125. NY Mets have lost 5 of their last 6 games overall. Atlanta has won 5 of their last 7 games overall. NY Mets are only 5-12 on the road this year. NY Mets are scoring only 3.8 runs per game on the road this season. Atlanta bullpen has a very nice 2.22 ERA at home this year. Johan Santana is 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA on the road this year and 0-1 with a 6.87 ERA his last 3 starts. Kris Medlen has a 2.08 ERA in all starts this year. Atlanta is 14-5 at home the past 3 years against the NY Mets. Santana is 1-5 overall vs Atlanta since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -104
Over the last 3 seasons, the Cubs have taken 6 of 7 at home from the Rockies. Looking back further, the Rockies are only 8-22 in the last 30 meetings in Chicago. It is also worth noting that the Rockies are 3-8 in their last 11 games as a road underdog and 4-11 in their last 15 games as an underdog period. Silva has been solid for the Cubs this season with a 3.40 ERA and Chicago has won his last 6 starts. You also have to like that the home team is 8-0 in umpire Todd Tichenor's last 8 games behind home plate. Chacin has been pretty good in few starts for the Rockies, but he was roughed up at home against the Nats last time out and I expect him to start coming back down to earth. The Nats do have a good pen if he gets in trouble early, but I'll take rest in the fact that Chicago is 19-0 in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 6.4 to 2.9. Take the Cubs.
Info Plays
3* Florida Marlins -187
No writeup today Just Cover
VEGAS EXPERTS
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll back Greinke and the Kansas City Royals today against the Baltimore Orioles. Greinke has had awful luck this season, as he’s pitched great but either couldn’t get the run support or his bullpen would let him down in the late innings. We don’t see that being a problem today against a weak Baltimore lineup, and we think this is a great price for Greinke to get a rare win. Baltimore has scored only six runs combined in their last three games, and Greinke knows this is a great chance to pick up a “W”. KC Wins!
Play on: Kansas City Royals
John Ryan
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
3* graded play on Atlanta as they host the Mets set to start at 7;05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Florida wil win this game. Mets were in first place in NL East, but now are just 1/2 game above Atlanta for that dubious distinction. Bigger problem is that Manager Emmanue is a dead man walking so to speak. It is never good news when the owner takes to his private jet to have a 90 minute closed door meeting. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-17 making 26.7 units for 71% winners since 2004. Play against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 excellent defensive catchers allowing <=0.35 SB's/game on the season facing an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing. Seems apparent that the Mets allow teams who generally leave a significant number of runners on base to enjoy getting them home. Mets are just 18-43 (-23.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. They did squeak out a win last night, but unfortunately it is bad news for tonight. Mets are just 3-17 (-13.8 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. With no leadership on the team and players worrying more about if or when the skipper will be removed makes for a very unfocused team. Take the Braves.
Lee Kostroski
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Colorado Rockies
While the Cubs snuck out a win in extra-innings last night, game 2 of this series should be a favorable match-up for the Rockies. The Colorado had won four of the previous five games before last night’s loss and despite a .500 record Colorado has badly out-scored foes on the season. The Cubs are still one of the least profitable teams in baseball sitting five games below .500 and going just 10-10 at home despite often being favored in most games. The Cubs have struggled against right-handed pitching and after failing to string hits together last night Chicago will face another tough right-hander.
Jhoulys Chacin made two brilliant starts in early May before a marginal outing at home against Washington last week. Through over 14 innings of work his road ERA is still 0.00 and he features and over 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the year. Opposing batters own a .176 batting average against Chacin and pitching in what should be favorable conditions at Wrigley tonight should only help his cause. Colorado also has an excellent bullpen with a 3.09 season ERA so it is unlikely that the Cubs are able to get much going tonight.
Carlos Silva has enjoyed an incredible start to the season with a 4-0 record but his statistics do not match-up to that kind of success. Silva has enjoyed very fortunate run support this season and he has actually pitched worse at home than on the road. After allowing just four runs in his first three starts he has allowed 14 runs in his last four starts and given his numbers the past few seasons in the American League it is very unlikely that Silva is able to sustain this great early season run. Silva typically gives up an above average number of hits and going against an excellent Colorado lineup will be problematic. The Chicago bullpen also has a 7.20 ERA in the last ten games.
Colorado is batting .306 against right-handed pitching in the last ten games and the Rockies were an excellent road team last season. The losing record so far away from home should be chalked up to a tough road schedule early in the year and there is still value on the Rockies as this team has performed much better than its overall record.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
The Angels will not win a fourth straight AL West title if they don't start playing better away from home. Last night's 4-3 loss makes it NINE losses in their last 11 road games. The win makes the Rangers 14-7 at home this year and they've won SEVEN of the last 10 games with the Angels here in Arlington (going back to the beginning of last season). Jered Weaver (4-2, 2.47 ERA) has allowed two ERs or less in SIX of eight starts this year and is coming off a tough loss in his last start vs the Rays and David Price. He allowed four runs (just one earned due to an error and two passed balls) in seven innings while striking out a career-high 12, yet took a 4-3 loss. Weaver has been LA's best pitcher this season but the numbers show that while the Angels are an impressive 41-19 in his home starts since 2006, they are just 31-30 in his away starts. Weaver was 0-2 with a 6.05 ERA in three road starts against Texas in 2009 (Angels lost all three), which shouldn't actually inspire much confidence if you were thinking of backing the Angels. Getting the nod for Texas is CJ Wilson and his season is becoming quite a story. Wilson is back in the starting rotation this season after spending the last four seasons in the bullpen (234 relief appearances with 51 saves from 2006-09). He's made seven starts this season (3-1, 1.48 ERA), allowing just 35 hits and eight ERs over 48.2 innings. The team has now won his last FIVE starts. All this, from a pitcher who hadn't started a game since the 2005 season prior to this season, going 0-5 with a 12.05 ERA in six starts that year (team was 1-5). Why not ride the Rangers again in this one?
Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -103
The Friendly Confines have not been friendly to the Rockies who have dropped 6 of 7 and 8 of their last 30 at Wrigley. The Cubs have won Silva's last 6 starts as they typically bring the bats when he is on the bump. After a pair of good outings, Chacin was lit up last time out, and I expect him to continue his decent back down to reality. The Rockies are only hitting .243 on the road and scoring just 3.9 runs in those games while the Cubs are hitting .285 at home and scoring 4.9 runs in those games. Cash in with the Cubbies.
Craig Trapp
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
The LAD are one of the hottest teams in the league, they have won 8 in a row. Even better they have not only been scoring runs in bunches but they have also been pitching great. Today they turn to young ace Kuroda to continue his great pitching (4-1 2.66 ERA). He has only given up 7 earned runs in last three starts in nearly 21 innings. Facing the hot Dodgers today will be Bud Norris who is coming off his only good start of season. Look for him to get stung early and often as the Dodgers absolutely are pounding the ball. Easy daylight winner no problem even with the run line.