Freddy Wills
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Over 9
Really not confident in Beckett getting out of his slump against the hot hitting Yankees and CC Sabathia has not been overly good against a Boston line up that has a .292 average in their last 10 games vs. LHP. I expect another high scoring game like last night.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +7½ over ORLANDO
Some might call it a rust job in game one but in no way are we buying that argument. The Celtics came in with a fantastic game plan against Dwight Howard and they executed it to perfection. The Celtics did an unbelievable job of pounding on Howard physically, and getting in his head and under his skin. But that’s what they always do with him. Howard has never scored the ball well against Boston, and it’s easy to see why. They’ve got five guys to run at him, who don’t just use their fouls, but who abuse him with them. And most importantly, they don’t need help; they play the guy straight up, meaning, Orlando’s three point shooters don’t get the looks they’re accustomed to getting. So Howard never gets in a rhythm, they put him on the foul line, which is bad for the Magic, and their making somebody else beat them. Vince Carter under pressure to knock down shots is a beautiful sight if you bet against the Magic. Rajon Rondo has become a dominant presence and the C’s have rediscovered its nasty. So, the books and public are attributing that game one beat down to rust and as a result, the number here is a point higher. It wasn’t rust at all, the Celtics are dialed in right now and spotting them seven points when they smell blood would be a huge mistake. Play: Boston +7½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
PHILADELPHIA -½ +1.11 over Montreal
While the Habs have been the story of this year’s playoffs, the Philadelphia Flyers run might be even more amazing. The Habs are an eight seed but the Flyers aren’t much better with a seventh seed and they were down 3-0 to the Bruins and 3-0 in game seven. Let’s also not forget that they blew away the Devils in round one and have now won five in a row. Even more impressive was the Flyers last game in which they whacked the Canadiens 6-0 two days after a hugely emotional game seven win over the Bruins in Boston. Yes, the Canadiens have been resilient as hell and every time they’re written off for dead they come up with a win. However, its bubble may have busted. Philly is getting production from everywhere while the Habs are getting production from two players. Philly ran traffic in front of Halak all game and scored four goals on 14 shots. They punished the Canadiens smaller forwards and basically dominated play from start to finish. They also put some doubt in the minds of the Habs and they also have a ton of momentum. The Flyers will be more ready tonight than ever, as a win here almost assures them of a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals and it says here they get it. Play: Philadelphia -½ +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.26 over SAN JOSE
The Blackhawks were not the better team in game one of this series but great goaltending earned them a win and no team has been more prepared for game two than the Blackhawks. You might recall a 5-1 loss to the Canucks in game one of its last series only to rebound with a 4-2 win in game two. They also lost game one to the Preds 4-1 before rebounding in game two with a 2-0 win. It’s not that they played poorly in game one but San Jose was the more aggressive squad and probably deserved a better fate but what does that matter now? We all know how fragile these Sharks can be and we also all know how dangerous the Blackhawks are when they’re on its game. Well, they’ll be on its game here and once again it could come down to goaltending and in that respect the edge has to go to Niemi. Nabokov is extremely fragile and an early goal could open the floodgates on this guy. These teams up 1-0 are playing with house money, as all the pressure shifts to the team down 0-1. That’s a great situation for both and there is just no way you can count out the Blackhawks in this game, especially when you consider how strong they’ve been after game one adjustments. Play: Chicago +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Sac Lawson
NYM (-105) vs ATL
I realize Johan has been less than stellar as of late, but I also know how good this guy can be. His fastball has been less than overpowering, and as a result, lefties are hitting him quite well. Here's the thing, we all know what this guy can do, and we all know that even though the Mets have struggled on the road, this is an amazing price with Santana on the mound. Also, Santana has a 2.05 ERA against the Braves over the last 3 seasons (7 starts).. impressive.
On the Braves side, it's as simple as this. Kris Medlan is a decent pitcher, but he's a middle reliever. He simply cannot go more than 5 innings for the Braves, and that means Atlanta will have to depend on three or four guys to all be on top of their game in order to hold the Mets down today. I have no problem with the Braves pen, but anytime I can have a guy like Santana on the mound for possibly 8 innings, while the opponent is doing a round robin of pitchers, I'll take my chances with the one stud against 4 separate pen guys. Let's roll with the Mets for a unit.
BAL (+115) vs AN
Talk about the battle of the two unluckiest pitchers in baseball! Both of these guys have pitched well this season and been given absolutely no run support. Funny thing is, for Grienke this is standard. The Royals simply do not get him runs, never have. And Millwood is a guy that has beaten the Royals in 4 of his last 5 starts against them, and his last two starts have both been complete games. For whatever reason, Millwood simply loves facing this Royals lineup, it all comes down to run support.
Quite frankly, neither bullpen can be trusted, but Millwood is an innings eater, he can go 8 or 9 innings without an issue. Grienke on the other hand has had some control issues, and his pitch count is usually elevated by the middle innings. Point being, we have a greater chance of seeing more of the Royals pen than we do the O's pen. That alone could be the difference in this game.
I expect Millwood to pitch well today, as he has all year, and I expect the Royals to continue to screw Grienke out of wins. Anytime two bad teams match up, you've gotta take your first look to the home team, and that's where we'll go with our money today. O's 1 unit!