Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis vs. San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'm aware that the Padres have been playing well here at Petco in recent weeks. In fact, I won with them each of the last two days. This figures to be a tough matchup though.
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Wainwright suffered a loss last time out. However, he still delivered a "quality start" and he's having an outstanding season. Through nine starts, he's 5-3 (Cards are 6-3) with a 2.51 ERA. He's averaged better than seven innings per start and has 63 K's to just five walks, allowing only two home runs in 64 2/3 innings.
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A closer look shows that Wainwright has a commanding 30/1 K/W ratio on the road, the Cards winning four of his five starts away from St. Louis.
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The Padres know how tough Wainwright can be as he's got a 0.97 ERA in five starts against them.
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On the other hand, Volquez is 2-4 with a 5.32 ERA in nine starts vs. St. Louis. This season, through nine starts, Volquez has an ugly 5.55 ERA and 1.582 WHIP. Not surprisingly, the Padres are only 3-6 (-2.8) when he takes the mound. Consider laying the wood.
MLB Predictions
Houston Astros +120
The Houston Astros are coming off a 6-5 win last night vs Kansas City as underdogs. That extends Kanas City’s losing streak to 4 games and they are now just 2-8 over their last 10 games overall. The Astros have won 3 of their last 5 games overall, and although they are just 13-32 on the year they send their best starting pitcher to the mound. Bud Norris will be pitching for Houston and he is 4-4 on the season with a 4.32 ERA, .296 OBA and 1.54 WHIP. He is coming off a rough outing where he allowed 7 earned runs vs Detroit, but that came on short rest after going 8 innings allowing just 1 earned run at home vs the Angels. He has now had a full week of rest and should be ready to get back at it with a quality home start. At home this year he is 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA (compared to a road ERA of 7.71). That isn’t rare for Bud Norris as he was 4-1 with a stellar 1.71 ERA at home last year compared to a road ERA of 6.94. He will be facing Wade Davis who takes the mound for the Royals. Davis is 3-3 on the season with a 5.98 ERA, .349 OBA and 1.89 WHIP. After a pretty good start to the season Davis has had his troubles lately allowing 23 earned runs over his last 5 starts. His last time out he went 5.1 innings giving up 9 hits and 4 earned runs, and his start before that he allowed 7 earned runs over 5 innings of work. Over 4 road starts his ERA is at 4.95 with opponents hitting .369 against him. Take note that the Royals are just 3-10 in their last 13 games as a small road favorite between -110 and -150 and they are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a favorite overall. I will take the value on the underdog tonight.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay at Toronto
Pick: Toronto +130
It has become apparent that the Tampa Bay Rays aren't the same pitching-heavy team they were a year ago. David Price has struggled, Shields is in Kansas City, and Fernando Rodney who was lights-out closing games a year ago, is not even close to what he did a year ago. Factor in Moore who is 8-0, and the Rays are otherwise a bad team. Alex Cobb has dominated at home, but has been very shaky on the road. Ramon Ortiz has given the Blue Jays' rotation a lift at 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA. The Jays have played well in expected higher than normal scoring games, taking their last five with a total of 9 to 10.5. The Rays are just 2-8 behind Cobb after scoring 5+ in their previous game. Go with Toronto.
Sam Martin
Grizzlies at Spurs
Play: Under
Spurs came out on fire in the series opener and never let up in a blowout win in Game One. Spurs finished with a 53% shooting effort and made 14 of their 29 three-point attempts. Despite that incredible offense performance the game only went over the total by six points, and we think Memphis can make enough defensive adjustments to slow down the Spurs offense and keep this game under the total. Grizzlies had held their opponents to 93 points or less in four of their previous five games going into this series, and only allow 90 points per game on the season. Memphis offense not very explosive and has scored less than 90 points in back-to-back games, and going back further they've shot 43% or less in six straight. Trends support this play as the Grizzlies are 17-4 Under after scoring 85 points or less and a near-perfect 12-1 Under after playing two straight games as a road underdog. Better defense leads to this game falling short of the posted total.
Joe Gavazzi
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
The Royals are at last regressing to the mean following their hot start. KC has now fallen below .500 going 3-11 with 4 consecutive losses following their 17-10 start. The work of Davis has been a trouble spot as he has posted an 8.39 ERA his L5 starts. I am normally only interested in Houston when Norris pitches at home, which is the case tonight. Following an outstanding season from this mound last year, Norris has a home record of 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 5 home starts this season. A rare chance to win with the Astros!
Steve Merril
Detroit vs. Cleveland
Play: Over 8.5
The Tigers come to Cleveland having lost a series in Arlington against the Rangers. It's a rematch of a game from May 10th when Detroit won 10-4. Corey Kluber is 2-2 with a 6.17 ERA in four starts for Cleveland. He allowed 8 runs and 11 hits in that game in just over four innings of work. Kluber has allowed 14 runs and 25 hits in three starts over two seasons against the Tigers. Detroit is hitting .282 at night and scoring over 5 runs per game this season. They have gone Over the total in 7 of their last 11 games overall. Max Scherzer took the win back on May 10th despite giving up 4 runs and five hits over eight innings pitched to the Indians. Scherzer has a 3.98 ERA in eight starts with five of those games going Over the total. The Tigers’ starter is 6-4 with a 5.17 ERA in 12 career starts against Cleveland. The Indians walked off with a win on Monday afternoon and they are scoring over 5 runs per game this season. Cleveland has gone Over in three of their last five games. Detroit's bullpen is 3-8 with six blown saves on the season. These two teams played two Overs in three meetings earlier this month, and tonight’s game will be another slugfest.
Greg Shaker
Houston +115
Nice number here to work with despite how awful these Astros can be. The Royals starter has been very inconsistent this year and Norris has as well. But Davis has performed very poorly on the road and batters as well have knocked him around for a .349 average this year. Over his last 4 starts this guy has managed to allow opponents to score 20 times in 21 innings thrown. He has struggled with control and his K/BB Ratio is very poor indeed. The thing about Norris is that he is a Homer and has been for a long time. This year a 2.30 ERA at this park and similar results in previous years with these Astros. Low pitch count for Norris last game and he should be as fresh as a starter can be. KC has just mediocre road stats and 3 games below .500. Good spot here for Houston and I have them winning at 55.1% of the time. I'm playing it.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Miami Under 7: Gonna look for a low scoring game in Miami tonight. The Phils offense just can't get it together as they continue to struggle. last night the Phils put up just 1 run and they have now scored a total of 4 runs in their last 3 games. They will be without Ruiz tonight and Howard is doubtful so that will hurt their offense even more. Jose Hernandez will also be a reason that the Phils offense could struggle tonight as he comes in with a solid 2.12 ERA in 3 home starts this year. His home starts have averaged 6 rpg. Oh and let's also note that Jose has faced the Phils twice this year and has not allowed an ER in 13 innings of work. Tyler Cloyd will be making just his 2nd start of the year and he looked very good in his first start, allowing just 2 ER's on 2 hits in 6.1 innings at Arizona, which has a much better offense then he will face tonight. The Miami offense is the worst in the league in hitting (.222) scoring (2.71) and homers (23), while at home they are even worse, scoring just 2.48 rpg and hitting a mere .211. Miami has scored just 14 total runs in their first 7 games of this home stand, so this offense is not getting any better at all. Miami home games have gone 8-14-1 to the under this year, averaging just 6.38 rpg, while Philly road games have gone 7-15 Under, with those games averaging just 6.68 rpg. I expect a pitcher's duel in Miami tonight.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Toronto/ Tampa Bay Over 9.5: The Over is 20-5-2 in Tampa's last 27 games overall and 12-1-3 in their last 16 road games. For the Jays the Over is 13-3 in their last 16 games on Astro Turf. Lets also note that the Over is 5-0 in Toronto's last 5 home games, with 12 or more runs being scored in their last 4 home games. The Jays have really been scoring well at home of late, putting up 9.5 rpg in their last 4 at home, while their pitching has been terrible at home all year, allowing 5.23 rpg. Ramon Ortiz gets the ball for the Jays tonight and he has pitched very well, with a 1.50 ERA in his 2 starts this year, but how long can that really last, as he has an ERA of 4.99 in 216 career starts. Ramon will be taking on a tough offensive team in the Rays tonight as they come in averaging 4.91 rpg on the road and 5.8 rpg in their last 10 games overall. Like the Jays at home, Rays pitching has been bad on the road, with a 4.87 ERA, while allowing 5.09 rpg. Alex Cobb has been a big part of that road ERA, as his ERA away from home is 4.74, while his WHIP is 1.47 in those games. Two hot offenses vs two bad staffs should get us at least 12 runs in this one.
TEXAS -1.5 (-110) over Oakland: Yu Darvish is having a super year and he is on a roll, having won his last 5 decisions, while 6 of his 8 teams wins this year have been by 4 or more runs. At home this year the Rangers have go 5-0 in his starts and they have outscored their opponents by a 45-10 count in his home starts. The Rangers offense has been hot, scoring 6.4 rpg in their last 10 games and the average 5.4 rpg at home. Those kind of numbers should continue vs Daniel Stailey, who has struggled this year. Daniel has made 5 starts on the year and is 1-2 with a 7.27 ERA in those starts, while in his last 3 starts he is 0-2 with a 7.98 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. His two team losses have come by 3 and 4 runs. Oakland's offense put up 9 runs last night, but still they have scored just 3.7 rpg in their last 10 games and I just don't see the A's coming up with enough offenses vs Darvish to keep this close.
Steve Janus
Red Sox/White Sox Over 9
Chicago and Boston should have no trouble finishing over the total tonight. Boston will start lefty Felix Doubront against the Chicago's lefty Jose Quintana. The fact that both pitchers are left-handed is a big reason why I think we will see a lot of runs. Both of these teams have hit left-handed pitching extremely well so far this season and both come in swinging a hot bat.
Doubront is 3-1 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.718 WHIP over six starts, but he's got a 6.27 ERA and 2.089 WHIP over four road starts. Quintana is 2-1 with a respectable 3.97 ERA in 8 starts, but has a 5.40 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in three starts at home.
Jeff Alexander
Oakland A's +187
The A's are showing value at this price. They've won 4 straight and are 5-2 in the last 7 versus the Rangers. Straily has been hit hard in his last couple starts, but the A's are still 8-4 in his 12 career starts. Darvish hasn't been quite as sharp lately and has lost his last 2 starts versus Oakland, giving 9 runs in 12 1-3 innings. Oakland is 16-9 since the start of last season when up against a top-level team with a winning percentage greater than 62%.
Dave Price
Baltimore Orioles -114
I like Baltimore to bring its six-game skid to an end tonight. New York's Phil Hughes has been absolutely rocked in his last two starts, giving up 13 runs in just 6 2-3 innings. He was also rocked in an earlier start against Baltimore, giving up 5 runs in only 3 innings of work. He has a 5.36 ERA in 16 starts versus Baltimore. Miguel Gonzalez has an ERA of 2.36 in 4 starts versus the Yankees. This statistic is even more impressive when considering that each of those came at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are 3-14 in Hughes' last 17 road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 home starts. Bet Baltimore.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -125
The Detroit Tigers should be a heavier road favorite over the Cleveland Indians tonight. Given the advantage the Tigers have on the mound in this one, I like their chances of a blowout victory.
Detroit will give the ball to the electric Max Scherzer. The right-hander has gone 5-0 with a 3.98 ERA and 0.994 WHIP with 68 strikeouts over 54 1/3 innings this season. Scherzer is a superb 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in three road starts this year.
Corey Kluber is no match for Scherzer. The right-hander is 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.4143 WHIP in four starts and two relief appearances. Kluber is also 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in his last three starts, and 1-2 with an 8.04 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in three career starts against Detroit.
The Tigers are 5-0 in Scherzer's last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Detroit is 20-8 in Scherzer's last 28 starts overall. The Indians are 1-7 in Kluber's last 8 home starts, and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog. Bet the Tigers Tuesday.
Red Dog Sports
Pittsburgh Pirates -141
Take the Pirates tonight as our free pick with Wandy Rodriguez starting for the home team. He beat the Cubs 3-0 earlier and is 4-2 with a 3.25 ERA. In 44 innings he has allowed 9 walks with 32 whiffs. He has given up only 1, 1, and 3 runs in his last three starts.
Andrew McCutcheon looks to return for the Pirates and should do damage along with Garrett Jones and Gabby Sanchez. Matt Garza returns from an injury to pitch for the Cubs.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +116 over SAN JOSE
OT included. Now that the refs ”evened” things up by leaving the Kings two-men short to begin OT in Game 3, expect tonight’s contest to be played on an even playing field. That’s not to say the Sharks have been outclassed in this series because they have skated with Los Angeles in every game and could easily be up 2-1 instead of down 2-1. That said, this one is all about playing the Kings as a dog in a game they have every bit as good a chance of winning as San Jose and maybe more so. The Kings are a proven playoff team. They always seem to make the necessary adjustments to correct any wrongs and they will apply that here. Los Angeles is also very likely to get Kyle Clifford back for this game and that’s a huge plus, as Clifford’s physical play is well-suited for playoff hockey and gives the entire club an emotional boost as well.
The Kings have an edge in net and a big edge on defense. Where the Sharkies have excelled is on the power-play, where they are an incredible 8 for 20 at home in the post-season this year. The Kings must stay out of the box here and we’re suggesting that the refs will be a little less whistle-happy against the Kings after they screwed them in the last game. The Sharkies have been down this road many times before. They have never been able to get over that proverbial hump in the playoffs when the chips are down. Well, the chips are down tonight because a loss here pretty much assures the Sharks of another second-round exit. Until they prove otherwise, San Jose is not to be trusted in big games with their Stanley Cup hopes on the line. The Kings will step it up tonight and they offer up some great value taking back a tag.
SPORTS WAGERS
Memphis+5 over SAN ANTONIO
Game 1 line of this series opened with San Antonio as a 5-point choice. By game time, that number was bet down to -4½ and the Spurs went out and buried the Grizzlies in the opener by 22 points while scoring 105 points in the process. As a result of that first game, the Grizzlies are being offered an inflated line here and we’re happy to accept it. A similar scenario occurred in the Grizzlies opening round match against the Clippers. In Game 1 of that series, the Clip Joint opened as a 5-point choice and went on to blow out Memphis by 21 points. The Grizz responded with a two-point loss in Game 2 and then went on to win four straight to eliminate the Clippers for good. A response here is also forthcoming.
The Spurs are well-coached, they have a ton of experience in these situations and they’re also very talented. However, they are not superior to these Grizzlies. The Spurs defense and rebounding is inferior to the Grizzlies and in playoff basketball, the team that excels in those two areas usually comes out on top. Simply put, Memphis had a horrible first half in Game 1 and could not recover. The most rugged team in the league, the Grizzlies epitomize true grit. Memphis always plays like it's out to prove it's better than people think. If you weren't impressed already by the league's top defense, take into account that the Grizz had won 14 of 15 games at one point late in the year and didn’t lose a game to any team not named the Heat for 1½-months. They lost Game 1 to the Clippers and stormed back. They lost Game 1 to the Thunder and responded to win that series in five games. Memphis has shown the ability to make the necessary adjustments and they will do the same here. This is a classic case of a market over-reaction to the results in the first game. Now we get a strong, buy low, sell high opportunity and we intend to take full advantage.