SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay -1½ +120 over TORONTO
Ramon Ortiz has a 2.35 ERA after two starts and 15 innings. Of all the pitchers in MLB, Ortiz has less chance than any of them of maintaining a low ERA because his skills are awful. He’s been nothing but pure, unsustainable luck so far. Ortiz has walked seven batters and struck out four in 15 frames. His xERA is 5.88. Ramon Ortiz is 40-years old and the last time he was an effective major-league pitcher was way back in 2002. Not even Chris Angel could make this illusion work so expect the Rays to put up a crooked number here.
Alex Cobb is on his way to elite status. Cobb has 52 K’s in 53 frames, a 1.17 WHIP and an elite groundball rate of 52%. Current Jays have four hits in 24 AB’s against Cobb (.167) and that’s when he wasn’t as good as he is now. Cobb has improved his game due to his sinker. Batters had a .333 BA and .523 SLG% against it in 2012. They have a .143 BA and .179 SLG % against it so far in 2013. Cobb is Cy Young material. He’s getting better with each passing month and he recently struck out 13 batters in 4.2 innings. This is the biggest pitching mismatch on today’s board and perhaps the entire year so far. The line doesn’t reflect that and that’s why there is so much value on the Rays here.
Chicago +125 over PITTSBURGH
1st 5 innings. Wandy Rodriguez has started the season with a splash, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.06 WHIP after his first eight starts. His skills have been really good due to elite command (9/32 BB/K’s) and a 46% groundball rate but there are reasons for concern. His annual strikeout rate trend coming into this season is on a four year decline. His strikeout rate this season does not come with underlying support, as his early swinging strike rate is an extremely low 5.4%. A 22% hit rate and 83% strand rate could inflict plenty of damage once they regress. Now is the time to sell high on Rodriguez because regression is forthcoming.
A stress reaction in Matt Garza’s elbow last August ended another strong season, skills-wise. Garza not only pulled off an impressive league switch to the NL in 2011, but in 2012, he more or less thumbed his nose at the notion that 2011 was a fluke. Garza's run the past couple of years has been impressive. His strikeout rate was reaching an elite level, his groundball rate held steady at 47% over his last 50 starts and at the time of his injury, Garza was making a run at being in the league's top tier of starting pitchers. Garza will throw his first pitch of his 2013 season here after throwing six scoreless innings (75 pitches) at Triple-A Thursday. If he goes back to being Matt Garza of the past 2+ years, well, he could ascend to become the most-sought-after pitcher of the summer. He’s eligible for free agency this fall. That’s the interesting part here. Garza is in line for a huge pay day next fall. There is no chance that he would risk losing that if he didn’t feel great. He could easily sit another month if he wasn’t feeling 100% ready. Free agency and millions of dollars is staring Garza in the face and we guarantee you, he’s ready to deliver the goods. Chances are, Garza will be on a strict pitch-count here and it’s for that reason we’ll play this one in five innings.
ATLANTA -1½ +118 over Minnesota
The Twins have dropped six in a row and to fall five games under .500 and they will remain under .500 because they do not have a proven and consistent starter that they can turn to when they need to snap a losing streak. Mike Pelfrey certainly isn’t that guy. Pelfrey faces a familiar foe in a visiting park where he has started eight times. He is 2-5 in those eight starts at Turner Field, with a 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 42.2 IP. In his first season as a member of the Twins, he hasn't been any better, throwing disasters in five of his eight starts thus far with just 18 K’s in 42 frames. Mike Pelfrey is batting practice and the Braves should rip him apart.
Atlanta has won five straight at Turner Field where they’ve scored five runs or more in four of them. Tim Hudson finds himself with an ERA over 5 through nine starts, despite improved skills. Hudson’s strikeout rate, 3.71 xERA, and 55% groundball rate are all improved over last season but his ERA is up largely due to an unlucky 62% strand rate. Hudson is pitching better than he has in years but the surface stats don’t reflect that. They time to step in is here because he receives a very favorable matchup here against the Twins at home. Minnesota has only a .238 road BA and will be without the services of the DH. This one has blowout written all over it.
Ian Cameron
Los Angeles at San Jose
Play: San Jose
San Jose has received new life in the Western Conference Semifinals after their enormous Game 3 OT win at home on Saturday night. I expect that momentum to carry over to tonight's Game 4 as the Sharks look to even up this series against the Kings. I'm not quite sold on LA being the better team in this series just yet. LA leads the series 2-1 but have been outshot in two of the first three games by a significant margin and are being outshot 106-78 overall in the series by the San Jose Sharks. San Jose's biggest issues in the first two games were finding ways to score against Jonathan Quick who has been the difference maker to this point but San Jose got two goals past him in Game 3. He was venting a ton of anger and frustration at the referees following a questionable call in OT which led to San Jose's game winning goal and I have a feeling San Jose will have more success against Quick moving forward in this series after we saw him visibly rattled. San Jose's power play came to life going 2-for-5 with the man advantage in Game 3 after not scoring in seven opportunities in the first two games of the series and when their power play is in good form, the Sharks are a much more dangerous team. San Jose has been every bit as good and dominant at home (22-2-5) as the LA Kings have been on their home ice. Los Angeles has struggled mightily away from home as of late which is a stark contrast from their road dominance en route to their Stanley Cup championship last year. The Kings are just 1-9 in their last 10 road games dating back to April. The price is just about right but San Jose is still worth a wager tonight as home favorites as they look to send this series back to LA tied 2-2.
Nelly
Mariners / Angels Over
Seattle has allowed 27 runs over the last four games and Aaron Harang may not be the answer to stop the bleeding as the veteran owns a 7.30 ERA through five starts with the Mariners this season. Harang allowed five runs in three innings facing the Mariners earlier this season and his road ERA is 8.44 on the year. The Angels have struggled offensively this season but they have horrible numbers against left-handed pitching and have actually posted respectable production vs. right-handers. In the last 10 games the Angels have hit .269 with 5.8 runs per game against right-handers and Harang is prone to allowing a lot of hits. Pitching for the Angels is Jerome Williams who is coming off back-to-back excellent starts, both coming against a White Sox lineup that has some of the worst offensive numbers in baseball. Nothing in his track record suggests his current 3.05 ERA is sustainable and a 4.50 xFIP presents that same conclusion. Over the last 10 games this Seattle lineup has scored 4.8 runs per game and on the road Seattle games have averaged 8.4 runs per game. Home games for the Angels have averaged almost 10 runs per game with the 'over' going 16-7 and there is little suggest a break from that trend tonight.
Bob Balfe
Kansas City Royals -130
Houston got a nice win last night, but I think the Royals come back tonight with Wade Davis on the mound. Houston has actually won a few games this year and have been impressive, but with a payroll like the one they have its almost certain this will be the worst team in baseball this year. Take the Royals.