Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday May, 22

Marc Lawrence

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates and Mets meet in the middle of a three game series evening when James McDonald opposes R. A. Dickey Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. McDonald toes the slab in terrific KW form with 26 strikeouts and 5 walks in his last three starts knowing he is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last two starts in this series and 6-3 in his career team starts during the month of May. On the other side of the coin, Dickey enters with a wobbly 5.40 ERA away from home this season. Look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh.

Ben Burns

Twins @ White Sox
PICK: Under 8.5

While his last start finished above the number, Gavin Floyd has still been one of this season's most profitable "under" pitchers. Through eight starts, he's seen the "under" go 6-1-1. Dating back to last season, the "under" is now 9-1-1 his last 11 starts.

While he got roughed up at LA last time out, Floyd has been at his best at home. Through four home starts. he's 3-1 with a superb 2.05 ERA and 0.987 WHIP. He's averaged 6.6 innings per home start and has seen the "under" go 3-0-1 here. Through 26.3 innings here, he has 27 K's vs. only nine walks. He's also only allowed one home run here all season.

The "under" is now 5-0-1 in Floyd's last six home starts. This season's starts here have finished with scores of 5-0, 4-1, 5-3 and 5-1.

P.J. Walters has been solid in both his starts. He's gone six or more innings in each start and has a 3.65 ERA and 1.054 WHIP. Each of his starts have finished below the total. They've had scores of 4-3 and 2-1. He'll have the advantage of starting against the Sox for the first time.

Walters will face a Chicago lineup that hits only .241 here at home, averaging just 3.9 runs here. Meanwhile, Floyd will take on a Twins lineup which averages a mere 3.7 runs per game on the road and which hits a dismal .219 away from Minnesota.

With the Sox on a 4-game winning streak, note that the "under" is 6-0 the last six times that they'd won three or more in a row. Given Floyd's success at home so far this season, I feel those stats could easily improve here. Consider the Under.

Bryan Power

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

After winning in this spot yesterday with Nationals, I'm reversing course and backing the revenge-minded Phillies Tuesday night behind Roy Halladay. Though his numbers have not neccessarily been as exceptional as we're accustomed to seeing from past years, Halladay still comes in with a 3.22 ERA in nine starts and is off a win over the Chicago Cubs last time out. The 8-7 victory was a bit misleading as Halladay left prior to the ninth inning with a sizable lead. In his last three starts, Halladay has exhibited tremendous control as evident by a 21-2 strikeout to walk ratio. He has absolutely owned this Washington franchise through the year, posting a 13-2 team start record to go along with a 2.26 ERA. That includes a 6-1 mark the last two seasons and he did not factor into the team's loss last August. The Nats send Jordan Zimmerman out to the hill and he's never had much success against the Phillies, failing to win in any of his four starts thanks to a 6.00 ERA. He is off a bad start last Thursday where he surrendered four runs over six innings. Look for the Phillies to knot this series up.

Dave Cokin

San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: San Francisco Giants

Not the best ballpark for Matt Cain, but I'm not sure of Shaun Marcum's health after he was forced to leave his last start, and the Brewers could also be minus Ryan Braun tonight. I'll go with the Giants to garner the road win.

Jim Feist

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota is showing plenty of fight, ripping off 4 wins in a row -- all as a dog! P.J. Walters starts and has been very good, with a 3.65 ERA and the White Sox have never seen him. Chicago has been strong on the road but has a losing home record because of a weak offense, 18th in batting average and 17th in slugging. starter Gavin Floyd is 4-10 in his career against Minnesota with a 5.67 ERA. Play the Twins.

SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota +159 over CHICAGO

The Twins have won three of their past four series against Milwaukee, Detroit and Toronto. They’re scoring runs, they’re getting some decent pitching and they could be a whole lot better than originally given credit for. With Minnesota under the radar, we’ll keep a close eye on them and play when undervalued like they are here. The White Sox are struggling at home with a mere seven wins in 19 games. P.J. Walters has made just two starts, having faced the Tigers and the Jays, allowing only 10 hits in 12.1 IP while striking out seven with just three walks. Walters has a solid groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 49%/23%/28%. He has shown consistent and solid skills in the minors and has not looked out of place against two worthy opponents. The South Side is coming off a sweep of the Bad News Cubs. Despite the Cubs' inepitute, the cross town rivalry is prominent and the series was played in front of a full house all three games. The White Sox had the day off yesterday and could be a bit lethargic coming into the first game of this series. Gavin Floyd is a consistent and very serviceable starter. However, the White Sox have won just four of his eight starts and current Twins batters are hitting a gaudy .357 in 157 career AB’s against him. The Twins have seen a lot of Floyd while the Chisox have yet to see Walters.Play: Minnesota +159 (Risking 2 units).

Detroit +106 over CLEVELAND

This is the first meeting of the season between these two division rivals. Surprisingly, it is the Indians who are leading the Tigers in the AL Central. Rick Porcello has seemingly struggled this season with his 5.12 ERA and 1.40 WHIP but a closer look shows a 3.77 xERA and career bests in control, groundball rate (53%) and strikeout rate. His fastball has turned from mediocre to good. It was at 89.2 mph in April 2011 but increased to 91.9 mph in April 2012. This 2.7 mph increase is the highest of any starter between those periods. Porcello is a strong candidate to turn things around. It was just two years ago that Ubaldo Jiminez made a name for himself in the Rockies rotation when he went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA in 33 starts. It’s been downhill ever since and it’s not because of bad luck. Jiminez has simply lost it. In 46 innings this season, he’s walked 32 batters while whiffing just 28. Jimenez never possessed great control or command but both are now atrocious. Jiminez is clearly troubled and we’ll gladly fade him in a pitching matchup that heavily favors the Tigers. Play: Detroit +106 (Risking 2 units).

David Banks

Pacers / Heat Over 180.5

The Indiana Pacers (48-27, 37-38 ATS) apparently had control of this series as they had a chance to go up 3-1 at home over a heavily favored Miami Heat team (52-23, 38-37 ATS) whose Big Three was reduced to the Big Two with the injury to Chris Bosh. Instead, LeBron James came up clutch when it mattered the most and Dwayne Wade could not miss a shot in the second half, and Miami seized both home court advantage and momentum in this series with a 101-93 win to even things up. The Heat now get to return home for Game 5 on Tuesday night from American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL at 8:00 ET on TNT.

Things looked bleak for Miami when the Pacers raced out to a 9-0 lead to begin the game and Indiana still led by eight points 54-46 at halftime. However, that is when the now Big Two of James and Wade took over with some timely help from Udonis Haslem, who had been benched to start the game. The Heat took control by outscoring the Pacers 30-16 in the third quarter, with James and Wade scoring 14 points apiece and Haslem scoring the other bucket to account for the 30 points. Then in the fourth quarter, Miami was able to repulse several Indiana comeback attempts thanks to Haslem hitting four of his five field goal attempts in the quarter while the Pacers were focused on stopping the Big Two. In the end, James just may have had the best game of his playoff life as he finished with 40 points, 18 rebounds and nine assists, just missing a triple-double, while Wade poured in 30 points and added nine rebounds, with a whopping 22 of those points coming after halftime. Don't forget about Haslem's key supporting role either, as he hit on five of his six field goal attempts for the game and finished with 14 points, 12 in the second half. The defense did its part also, limiting Indiana to 41.8 percent shooting and forcing 15 turnovers as the Heat played its most complete game of the series at the most critical time.

This was the first game in this series where Miami's vast edge in post-season experience was evident, as after the Pacers played with great emotion while feeding off of the energy of an enthusiastic home crowd during the first half, they were unable to respond after talking that big hit in the third quarter. Of course it did not help that center Roy Hibbert, who dominated both ends of the floor while the Pacers pulled away to a 19-point blowout win in Game 3, was virtually non-existent in the second half due to foul trouble and finished with just 10 points. Now the bright side is that Hibbert should play better in Game 5 as long as he does not pick up some quick early fouls, while Haslem may not match his lights-out shooting performance from Sunday. Would that be enough for Indiana to steal another road game in this series and reclaim the series lead? Well, if the Big Two play the same way they played in Game 4, the Pacers' task here still seems very difficult.

Game 4 did go 'over' the posted total of 179 after the 'under' had gone 3-0 in the first three games, with those three contests averaging only 167.7 points combined. In fact, the Heat had scored only 75 points exactly in each of their back-to-back losses coming in before the 101-point explosion. The 'under' is still 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings overall and 6-2 in the last eight meetings here in Miami.

MATT RIVERS

As for Tuesday night's free play winner, I am looking for Brandon Beachy and Mat Latos to step to the mound tonight in Cincinnati and mow the hitters down.

Take the Under in the Braves-Reds game, and why not?

All Beachy has done is work eight starts this year with a scant 1.33 ERA. In five of those eight starts he has allowed just one run or less, and he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his eight season starts this year.

Latos has finally figured out how to pitch for his new team, as the right-handed hurler has allowed just four earned runs over his last 16 innings pitched, and also sports 22 strikeouts over that same time frame.

Last night the teams held Under the total, as two of the three meetings this season have stayed low. Atlanta is on a 3-1 Under run their last five games, while Cincinnati has stayed Under the posted total in three straight and four of their last five.

Beachy and Latos to dominate.

Braves and Reds to stay Under.

4♦ UNDER

JEFF BENTON

Your Tuesday freebie is the Atlanta Braves to even their four game series with the Cincinnati Reds.

Brandon Beachy has got to be the surprise of the season this year in the National League. He has made eight starts this year and sports a 5-1 record with a 1.33 ERA. He basically has not been touched by the opposition, allowing one run or less in five of those eight starts, and no more than two earned runs in any of those eight outings!

Mat Latos has the unenviable task of trying to match pitches with Beachy, and while Latos has been much better of late his season ERA is still hovering near five.

The Braves have gone 16-10 away from home, as they have taken over first place in the N.L. East division. After a road loss last night, I look for the Braves to get back on the beam with the road win tonight.

Small price to pay for a pitcher who has really emerged this season.

Atlanta the call.

4♦ ATLANTA

MLB Predictions

Boston Red Sox -118

Felix Doubront will take the mound for Boston in a southpaw showdown tonight. Doubront is 4-1 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and .256 opponents batting average. In his last three starts he has allowed just 5 earned runs combined and has gone 3-0 (with two of those three starts on the road). Lefty Brian Matusz will go for Baltimore and he is 3-4 on the season with a 5.36 ERAm 1.69 WHIP, and .309 opponents batting average. Over his last three starts he has allowed 12 earned runs against and 7+ hits in all of those three starts. Matusz has allowed 56 hits and 26 earned runs in 43.2 innings of work this season, but has been lucky enough to get some run support to keep his record at a respectable 3-4. The Red Sox have won 9 of their last 11 games to climb back to 21-21 on the season and they are 12-10 on the road. Baltimore has lost two straight games after winning 5 straight, and sit a top of the AL East with a 27-16 record and 12-10 home record. Take note that the Red Sox are 4-1 in Doubront's last 5 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The Orioles are just 2-6 in Matusz's last 8 home starts. The Red Sox have had Baltimore's number over the year beating them in 80 of their last 117 meetings, and as hot as they are right now despite some injuries I don't see Matusz slowing them down. I'll lay a bit of chalk taking Boston on the road behind Doubront.

Los Angeles Dodgers +130

You wouldn't know that the Dodgers are banged up by the way they are playing. LA has won 5 straight games to move to 29-13 on the season (10-9) on the road. The Dodgers won 6-1 in Arizona last night as underdogs, and I think they have a great shot at doing it again tonight at an even better price. The Diamondbacks are just 5-11 in their lsat 16 games and have fallen to 19-24 on the season and just 7-13 at home this year. Tonight we will see Aaron Harang on the mound for Los Angeles. He is 3-2 on the season with a 3.83 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .250 opponents batting average. Over his last three starts he is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Trevor Cahill will be looking for his first win since May 1st, as he enters tonight's game with a 2-4 record, 4.01 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .230 opponents batting average. Over his last three starts Cahill is 0-2 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The Dodgers come into tonight's game scoring 6+ runs in 5 straight games, while the Diamondbacks have scored just 6 runs over their last 3 games. Los Angeles is averaging 4.26 runs per game on the road while the D'backs are averaging just 3.70 runs per game at home. Take note that Harang holds a lifetime 1.99 ERA vs the Diamondbacks in 13 appearances (12 starts). The Dodgers are 5-0 int heir last 5 games as underdog, 38-16 in their last 54 games overall, and 20-8 in their last 28 vs National League West opponents. The D'backs have won just 3 of their last 16 home games, and are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning % above .600. Also note that Arizona is just 2-5 in their last 7 divisional games. The Dodgers have won 5 of their last 7 meetings in Arizona and I really like them again tonight at a very generous underdog price.

Steve Janus

Philadelphia Phillies -149

I think its worth the price to lay the juice on the Phillies at home with Roy Halladay on the mound. Halladay hasn't been his usual self, but he is still 4-3 with a 3.22 ERA in nine starts. He has started to get it turned around with a 2.86 ERA and 0.955 WHIP over his last three starts. He also has a 2.57 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in four starts at home.

Halladay has owned the Nationals. He is 11-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.985 WHIP in 15 career start. Washington will counter with Jordan Zimmerman, who is one of the up-and-coming stars. However, Zimmerman, has yet to figure out the Phillies. He is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia.

The Phillies are 36-16 in their last 52 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 23-7 in Halladays last 30 starts vs. National League East and 14-3 in Halladays last 17 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Andrew Lange

Dodgers at Diamondbacks
Play: Over 9

Everyone is pretty much aware that LA's Aaron Harang is a fly ball pitcher. And that isn't a bad thing to be when pitching at Dodgers Stadium, AT&T Park and Petco. But in hitter-friendly environments, Harang has and will continue to struggle. His career numbers at Chase Field look strong: 4 starts, 1.38 ERA, 1 HR allowed. But all four outings had the roof closed. Tonight it is expected to be open and that puts Harang in a difficult spot. When on, Trevor Cahill is a really strong groundball pitcher but he's been very inconsistent this season and hasn't missed a lot of bats with 31 strikeouts (and 21 walks) in 49.1 innings. Keep in mind two of his three starts at Chase Field were with the roof closed. The one that wasn't he gave up four earned runs and a season-high 10 fly balls. Don't tell the Dodgers Matt Kemp's injury is supposed to bog the offense down. LA has scored 8, 6, 6, 6, and 6 runs its last five games. Play this game over the total.

Jack Jones

San Francisco Giants -105

I'm backing the San Francisco Giants and the highest-paid right-handed pitcher in baseball history tonight. Matt Cain is showing great value at nearly even money against Shaun Marcum and the Milwaukee Brewers.

Cain is 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.820 WHIP in eight starts this season. He has stuck out 54 batters in 57 1/3 innings to pick up right where he left off last year. Marcum is 2-2 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in eight starts this season, but he's clearly no Cain.

The Brewers are just 17-25 this season as they're clearly missing Prince Fielder. Milwaukee has lost five of their last six overall, and they continue to get treated with too much respect from oddsmakers. If you bet $100/game on the Brewers this season you would be down $1,370.

Milwaukee is 0-7 in Marcum's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 18-38 in their last 56 games as an underdog. The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in this series, and 9-3 in their last 12 meetings in Milwaukee. Bet San Francisco Tuesday.

Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Tigers +107

The Tigers are showing value at this price considering they have won 10 in a row versus the Indians, including 4 straight in Cleveland. Plus, scheduled starter Rick Porcello has had his fair share of success against the Tribe.

Porcello is 5-1 (9-3 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.86 in 12 career starts versus the Indians. The Tigers have won his last 3 starts versus Cleveland.

Ubaldo Jimenez has been unable to regain the form he showed in Colorado a couple seasons ago. He's never had much luck versus Detroit as evidenced by his 2-5 record and 6.86 ERA in 7 career starts versus the Tigers.

The Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home favorite while the Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. It's also worth mentioning the Tigers are 11-4 in Porcello's last 15 road starts. Take Detroit.