Dave Price
New York Mets +118
The Mets get the call as my free play as they are showing value at this underdog price with Dickey on the hill. He's 5-1 with a 3.76 ERA through 8 starts this season with the Mets winning 6 of those. He's been in excellent form lately, going 2-0 with an ERA of 2.70 over his last 3 starts - all Mets wins. The Mets are 6-1 in Dickey's last 7 starts as an underdog, 7-2 in his last 9 starts as a road underdog and 4-0 in Dickeys last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. McDonald has pitched well for Pittsburgh but a lineup hitting just .212 at home doesn't offer much run support. The Pirates are 0-4 in McDonald's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. We'll bet the Mets.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
MIAMI -6.5 over Indiana: Google News Play Im going to side with the home team in this one. the Heat are 32-6 at home and have outscored their opponents 11.1 ppg on this floor this year. Miami is without Bosh once again, but they have had some time to adjust to his loss and should be ready for a complete game at both ends of the floor tonight. The Pacers have played great defense this year, but they do allow 94.4 ppg on the road, while Miami allows just 88.7 ppg at home. The Heat are the better team here and while Indiana has put up a heck of a fight so far, I feel that Miami is ready to crush them in this one. The Heat just have too many weapons and will treat the home crowd to an easy DD win in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis/ San Diego Under 7.5: John Jay, Lance Berkman and Allen Craig are all on the DL for the Cards. So Where will their offense come from, especially vs Edinson Volquez, who has pitched very well this year. Edinson has a losing record (2-3) but with a solid 3.04 ERA, with his starts averaging just 5.6 rpg on the year. He has struggled with the Cards, posting a 7.36 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, but they just don't have the offense right now to capitalize. Adam Wainright has had a tough go this year and is looking for that one big game to get his confidence back and this may be the team for him to do it against as he owns an 0.82 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Padres. The padres have averaged just 2.4 rpg in their last 5 games, while St Louis has put up just 3.8 rpg in their last 5. An injured offense, a weak offense and some solid pitching on the mound should equal a low scoring game.
Baltimore/ Boston Under 9.5: Gonna follow the money in this one and you know how much I hate to do that, but It really does make sense. First let's look at the lefty vs lefty stat. In the AL when two lefties face each other the UNDER is 15-10-2 on the year. Now let's look at the starters. Felix Doubront has been pitching very well of late as he comes in with a 2.50 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 3.52 ERA in his road starts this year. Felix also gets the advantage of having never faced the O's. On the other side we have Brian Matusz, who has not pitched all that badly of late. Brian has just 1 bad start in his last 5 starts and in that game he allowed 7 ER in just 5 innings to Texas, but in his other 4 starts over that stretch he has allowed a combined 6 ER's, while posting a 2.25 ERA in those 4 starts. Brian has also pitched well vs Boston of late as he has a 3.91 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, while allowing 2 ER's or less in 4 of those 5 starts. Both teams do hit lefties pretty well, but tonight I expect these pitchers to continue to pitch well as this one barley reaches 7 runs.
Atlanta -120 over CINCINNATI: Being a Phillies fan this is a tough pick for me to make, but money is money. The Braves lost last night to the read, but behind Brandon Beachy they should bounce back tonight. Brandon has been the Braves best pitcher this year, as he comes in with a 5-1 mark and 1.33 ERA overall and a 3-1 mark with a 1.74 ERa on the road this year. Mat Latos has nod had a great start to his Cincinnati career as he is just 2-2, but with a 4.63 ERA and he has struggled at night, posting a 1-2 mark with a 5.24 ERA. The Reds have struggled to score at home as they have averaged just 4.1 rpg and have hit righties at a .211 clip in their own backyard this year. Atlanta has scored pretty well on the road as they have averaged 4.8 rpg away from home on the year. The Reds have won 3 in a row, but Latos will be outdueled by Beachy tonight as Atlanta bounces back from last night's loss.
NHL Predictions
Los Angeles Kings -125
The Kings come into this game in Phoenix up in the series 3-1 and would nothing more to close it out and lock up a spot in the Stanley Cup Finals against either the Rangers or the Devils. Los Angeles has gone undefeated on the road to this point of the playoffs with their 7-0 record away from home and I think that continues tonight as they finish of the Coyotes. The Kings are 11-2 in the postseason and have been in control for most of this series. Mike Smith had to stop 36 shots in Game 4 to extend the series as Los Angeles outshot the Coyotes 36-21. The Kings have outshot Phoenix in all 4 games to date, and have outplayed them all around. Mike Smith stole the Coyotes one game, but I don’t think he can steal another one with Jonathan Quick playing just as well between the pipes. Los Angeles closes out the series tonight - take the Kings to win.
Nite Owl Sports
Los Angeles Kings @ Phoenix Coyotes
Pick: Los Angeles Kings -130
With the Phoenix Coyotes facing an unceremonious sweep in the Western Conference finals, their captain Shane Doan stepped up to extend their season by at least two more days, with his out-standing performance (featuring two goals, among other things) leading Phoenix to its first victory of the series (and his first-period power-play goal ending a string of 30 straight penalty kills by the Kings). Doan was clearly the best player on either team in Game 4, and as Phx head coach Dave Tippett pointed out, that wasn't all the veteran forward brought to the table. "You don't see all the things that happened behind the scenes in the dressing room, the inspiration for the guys there, how much he cares about this team and succeeding," he said. "When you can do that behind-the-scenes stuff, plus bag it up with the on-the-ice stuff that he showed, it speaks volumes for who he is." The 35-year-old Doan has been with the club since it moved from Winnipeg to Phoenix in 1996, and is competing in his first-ever conference finals. And with the Coyotes looking to defend home ice as they entertain the LA Kings in Game 5 tonight, their stellar goalie Mike Smith and will need to be just as good tonite as he was in Game 4 if Phx wishes to “stay alive’ and return to LA for a game 6.
The LA Kings are coming off a loss for just the second time this post-season, but the club doesn't seem overly concerned, which is likely be due, at least in part, to the fact that the Kings are 7-0 on the road in TY’s Stanley Cup playoffs, and in an identical situation (after losing game 4 at home to the heavily favored Canucks in the first round for their only other post-season loss), came back with a vengeance to take game 5 in Vancouver, not an easy place to be victorious. The LA Kings had hoped to close things out Sunday afternoon at home, but were stymied by Phx goale Smith, who turned aside 36 shots. "He's been a great goalie for them all year," said Kings forward Dustin Penner. "As forwards, we've got to do something different, or a little bit better, to make him work harder, and not just be satisfied with getting the puck on net." And speaking of goalies, the Kings have a pretty good one of their own in Jonathan Quick, who is enjoying the best season for a goalie in Kings franchise history (even better than Kings “legend” Rogie Vachon), as they try to deliver the final knock out blow tonite to take the Western Conference finals. The Kings net minder and has been nominated for the Vezina Trophy following a dominant regular season and has posted similarly stingy numbers so far in the playoffs. In addition, the Kings also have the top penalty-killing unit in the post-season, operating at a 95 percent “kill rate,” and having “killed” 30 straight opposing team playoff power play chances before Doan’s game 4 power play goal, including 19 of 20 Phx power play chances in games 1-4.
S
o with the above back drop, and Kings favored by -130 on the ML, a manageable price for them, especially given their road playoff success TY, the big question is whether the Kings will bounce back and end it tonite, like they did in game 5 at Vancouver, or if Phx has come “back from the dead’ with that uplifting huge road upset victory in game 4, and will be led to another one tonite by their ageless captain, Shane Doan. And in making that determination, we also note that in addition to Kings being 7-0 on the road in TY’s Stanley Cup playoffs, Phx is a very ordinary 4-4 in their 8 home playoff games TY, with home success only against road-challenged Nashville, against whom they were 3-0 in their 3 home games (they also were 1-2 at home vs Chicago and are 0-2 so far at home vs the Kings). And based mostly on that home/road edge for LA, plus their dominance so far in this series, especially in games one and two in Phx, we’ll take the Kings here for 3 units at -130 on the ML.
Teddy Covers
Rangers @ Mariners
PICK: Over 7
We’ve seen a deluge of Under money drive this total down from an opener of 8 all the way to 7. I do not agree with the line move one iota, leaving us with some real value on the Over in Seattle this evening.
The Mariners have a well-deserved reputation as a light hitting team, but they’ve been tearing the cover off the ball offensively for nearly a week. Seattle has pounded out 31 runs in their last five ballgames, scoring at least four in every contest. Don’t expect that to change dramatically tonight against struggling Rangers starter Matt Harrison. Harrison’s got a 7.48 ERA in four previous starts this month and only one quality start in his last five trips to the hill.
Texas got shut down by King Felix last night, ending a stretch of six consecutive games with at least four runs scored. But the Rangers battered Mariners starter Hector Noesi for seven runs in just three innings of work when they faced him last month. Noesi isn’t notching strikeouts in bunches, and he’s shown vulnerability to the home run ball, a bad combination against a Rangers lineup that leads the majors in runs scored, batting average and OPS so far this season. Seattle’s bullpen behind Noesi is mediocre at best, leaving the door open for some late inning shenanigans should we need them. Take the Over.
Lenny Del Genio
Colorado @ Miami
PICK: Miami
With these two National League teams heading in very different directions, we might as well get on board with the host Marlins, who are a MLB best 15-5 in May while the Rockies are a MLB worst 4-15 this month. Quietly, Colorado has become one of the worst teams in the league. They've lost five in a row and 9 of 11. They've been outscored 36-18 over the last five games. After scoring four first inning runs last night, they were shut down the rest of the way. They average just 3.2 runs per game on the road. Starter Juan Nicasio has an 0-5 team start record as an underdog this season. Miami is 6-2 the last eight times they've hosted the Rockies.
John Ryan
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
5* graded play on Toronto as they host Tampa Bay set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 63-33 making 62.4 units per one unit wagered since 1997 for 66% winners. Play on road teams that are good offensive teams scoring between 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games and now facing an average AL starter posting an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. Drew Hutchinson gets the start tonight for the Blue Jays and he has posted an impressive 3.12 ERA, allowed just one home run spanning his last three starts. Moreover, he has gone six innings and allowed one earned run in his last two starts in a 4-1 win over the Yankees +110 and 2-1 win at Minnesota -140. By comparison Rays starter Matt Moore has struggled posting a 7.20 ERA in just 15 innings of work over his last three starts. He has gone 0-3 in these three starts losing to Boston installed as -120 favorite, at Baltimore installed as -140 favorite, and Oakland installed as as a -175 favorite. Take the Toronto Blue Jays.
Freddy Wills
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins
Ricky Nolasco has struggled of late and even his last start against the Rockies was a bad one giving up 11 ER last year, but his previous 5 starts vs. the Rockies were quality as he posted a 2.13 ERA. 1 bad start and we are getting better odds against a Rockies team that has gone ice cold and is even worse on the road.
The Rockies who are in the top 10 in OPS vs. RHP are one of the worst road teams in hitting with a .210 average and 2.73 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They have a road bullpen ERA of 5.21 which will have to come in play when Juan Nicasio makes his 4th road start of the year vs. a hot Marlins team that is 15-5 this month. The Marlins will face Nicasio and they've hit righties well at home .294 with 5.20 runs per 9 vs. RHP. Nicasio may have a great ERA in 3 road starts this year but 2 of those 3 starts were against the 30th ranked Pirates and 25th ranked Astros in hitting vs. RHP. He posted a 7.04 ERA in 6 road starts last year.
The Rockies are just 18-43 in their last 61 road games and 16-40 in their last 56 vs. a winning team. While the Marlins are 19-8 in Nolasco's last 27 starts vs. the NL West.
Ross Benjamin
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are a perfect 7-0 in the last 2 seasons versus teams that average 1.5 or more home runs per game. Boston is also 33-16 the last 2 seasons on the road versus teams with a better than .500 winning percentage, and 17-4 in that same time span when they commit 1 error or less in each of their last 10 games. Boston is finally getting its act together winning 9 of the last 11 overall. The Red Sox starter Dubront is 3-0 in his last 3 team starts with a stellar 2.50 ERA. The Baltimore starter Brain Matusz has been shaky over his last 3 starts posting a lofty 6.48 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Play on the Boston Red Sox.
Jeff Alexander
LA Angels -138
The Angels clearly have the advantage on the mound with Wilson. Dating back to last season, the A's are 0-5 in Godfrey's last 5 starts, losing them by an average of 2.6 runs. The Angels have lost 3 in a row but find themselves in great hands tonight. After all, they are 5-2 in Wilson's last 7 starts when he gets the ball following a team loss in their previous game. Also, Wilson's clubs are 26-6 when he gets the start as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, the Halos are 15-3 after 3 straight losses by 2 runs or less since 1997. Take the Angels.
Dave Price
New York Mets +118
The Mets get the call as my free play as they are showing value at this underdog price with Dickey on the hill. He's 5-1 with a 3.76 ERA through 8 starts this season with the Mets winning 6 of those. He's been in excellent form lately, going 2-0 with an ERA of 2.70 over his last 3 starts - all Mets wins. The Mets are 6-1 in Dickey's last 7 starts as an underdog, 7-2 in his last 9 starts as a road underdog and 4-0 in Dickeys last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. McDonald has pitched well for Pittsburgh but a lineup hitting just .212 at home doesn't offer much run support. The Pirates are 0-4 in McDonald's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. We'll bet the Mets.
Ross King
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Many handicappers will tell you that handicapping is not as easy as taking the better starting pitcher so tonight we will put this to the test.Washington has won 12 of 15 versus Philadelphia but against Halladay he is 11-0 versus Washington while 6 of those wins were with Philadelphia.Overall Halladay is 11-1 2.26 e.r.a and a whip under 1.His opponents Zimmerman has yet to beat the Phillies sporting a 0-3 and an e.r.a of 6 against them.