SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
L.A. Lakers (10-3, 8-5 ATS) at Phoenix (9-4 SU and ATS)
The Suns, back in this best-of-7 Western Conference finals series after getting blown out in Games 1 and 2, look to tie things up with a victory in Game 4 against the defending champion Lakers at U.S. Airways Arena.
Phoenix pulled away late in Game 3 for a 118-109 victory as a 1½-point home favorite, a triumph that followed two double-digit losses in Los Angeles. Amare Stoudemire had a huge night, tying his career playoff high with 42 points on 14-for-22 shooting and adding 11 rebounds. Robin Lopez had his best postseason performance with 20 points, and Steve Nash doubled up with 17 points and 15 assists.
Kobe Bryant (36 points, 11 assists, nine boards) nearly had a triple-double in defeat, and Pau Gasol had 23 points and nine rebounds as Los Angeles outshot Phoenix 48.3 percent to 46.3 percent. But the huge difference came at the free-throw line – the Suns made a whopping 42 trips to the charity stripe, hitting 37 (88.1 percent), while Los Angeles was 16 of 20. L.A. also committed 17 turnovers and forced just seven. The loss ended the Lakers’ eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS).
Los Angeles is now 5-2 SU and ATS in its seven meetings with Phoenix this season, and despite the Game 3 defeat Phil Jackson’s squad is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 trips to the desert. The Lakers have won nine of the last 12 SU in this rivalry and are 11-5 ATS in the last 16. The home team has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings, and the chalk is on a 6-1 ATS swing (4-0 last four). These squads also met in the first round in 2006 and 2007, with Phoenix taking both series, rallying from a 3-1 deficit in ’06 while going 4-3 ATS, and rolling in five games in ’07 (2-3 ATS).
The SU winner is 14-1 ATS in the last 15 Lakers-Suns clashes (7-0 this year). Also, the SU winner has cashed in 22 straight games for Phoenix (including all 13 playoff games), and the SU winner is 11-2 ATS in Los Angeles’ 13 playoff games this year.
Los Angeles is 26-21 (20-26-1 ATS) on the road this season (3-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs), winning three in a row SU and ATS on the highway before Sunday’s setback. Phoenix is 37-10 (30-16-1 ATS) in the home jerseys, winning its last five SU and ATS after dropping the first-round opener against Portland.
The Lakers sport positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 overall (5-1 last six), 4-1 in conference finals, 7-3 as a playoff pup and 6-1 after scoring 100 points or more, but they are also 4-12 ATS in their last 16 starts following one day of rest and are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 after a spread-cover.
The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference finals outings, but the pointspread streaks are all positive from there, including 34-16-1 overall, 37-18-1 at home 21-6-1 as a favorite, 4-0 as a playoff chalk, 5-1 after a SU win, 19-7-1 after an ATS victory and 35-15-1 after a day off.
Los Angeles is on “over” surges of 9-1-1 overall (6-0-1 last seven), 5-1-1 as a visitor, 5-1 in the conference finals (4-0 last four), 5-0-1 after a day off, and 4-1-1 as a playoff pup. Likewise, Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 6-1 overall (4-0 last four), 6-1 at home (all as a chalk), 16-7 as a playoff chalk, 4-1 in conference finals and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win.
Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry, including 3-0 in this series, and the total has gone high in 12 of the last 17 clashes between these Pacific Division rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (26-19) at San Diego (26-18)
Two teams clinging to first place in their respective divisions kick off a three-game series at Petco Park, with Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright (6-2, 2.49 ERA) set to oppose the Padres’ Jon Garland (5-2, 2.38).
St. Louis was off Monday after taking two of three from the Angels over the weekend, capped by Sunday’s come-from-behind 6-5, 12-inning victory. The Cardinals, who are tied with the Reds for first place in the N.L. Central, followed up a 3-9 slump by going 5-2 on their just-completed seven-game homestand. Tony LaRussa’s troops are also 35-16 in their last 51 series openers. However, they’ve lost six of nine on the road and are in additional ruts of 2-6 after a victory, 1-5 on the road against right-handed starters and 3-7 versus the N.L. West.
San Diego returns home from a successful 3-2 road trip, knocking off Seattle on Saturday (2-1) and Sunday (8-1) before resting yesterday. The Padres, who lead the Dodgers by one game in the N.L. West, are still just 4-6 in their last 10 games, and they’ve lost six of seven at Petco overall and six of seven at home against right-handed starters. On a positive note, San Diego is on surges of 10-3 against the N.L. Central, 20-8 versus winning teams, 6-1 on Tuesday, 9-4 in series openers and 4-0 overall against righties.
The Cardinals have owned this rivalry over the past several years, going 60-21 in the last 81 meetings, including 11-1 in the last 12. St. Louis has also won four of the last five battles in San Diego, but the home team is still 11-5 in the last 16 series clashes.
Wainwright gave up two first-inning runs to the Marlins on Thursday but shut them out from there, yielding six hits and three walks in seven innings of a 4-2 victory. Going back to the middle of last June, Wainwright has had 26 quality starts in his last 28 trips to the mound, yielding two earned runs or fewer in 25 of those 28 contests (including 10 of the last 12). However, the right-hander walked three in each of his last two outings after going 14 straight starts without issuing more than two free passes.
Wainwright is 2-2 with a 2.83 ERA on the road, and the Cardinals have won 20 of his last 26 on the highway. Also, behind the 6-foot-7 pitcher, St. Louis is on surges of 39-17 overall, 9-3 on Tuesday, 26-8 versus opponents with a winning record and 6-1 when he starts a series. Finally, Wainwright’s only start against the Padres came at home last season, and he scattered eight hits in seven scoreless innings en route to a 9-2 victory.
Garland is coming off his worst start of the season, as he allowed four runs on nine hits in five innings at Los Angeles on Wednesday, but San Diego’s offense caught fire and Garland ended up rolling to a 10-5 victory. Prior to Wednesday, Garland had delivered five straight quality starts, giving up just four total runs in 33 innings (1.09 ERA). The Padres are 6-1 in the right-hander’s last seven starts (3-1 at home).
Garland is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in four home games, yielding just three earned runs in 25 innings. Last year when he was with Arizona, Garland faced the Cardinals twice and went 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA, dropping to 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA all-time against St. Louis.
St. Louis is on a slew of “under” runs, including 10-3 on the road, 6-2 against the N.L. West, 34-16-1 against winning teams, 12-2 in series openers and 47-23-3 after a victory. Also, the under is 9-4-1 in Wainwright’s last 14 road starts and 4-1 in his last five Tuesday efforts. Similarly, the Padres are on “under” streaks of 11-4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 versus the N.L. Central, 6-1 on Tuesday, 32-15-4 against right-handed starters, 22-8-1 against winning teams and 4-0 when Garland comes off five days of rest.
These teams have topped the total in seven of their last 10 meetings overall, but the under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 at Petco.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (26-18) at Minnesota (26-18)
The suddenly slumping Yankees continue a six-game road trip with their first-ever visit to Target Field, as A.J. Burnett (4-2, 3.86) takes the ball for the visitors and the Twins counter with Scott Baker (4-4, 4.88).
New York edged the Mets 2-1 in Friday’s opener of the Subway Series at Citi Field, but dropped the final two contests by scores of 5-3 and 6-4. The Yankees have followed up a six-game winning streak by losing 10 of their last 15 games, including six of eight on the road, to fall 5½ games back of Tampa Bay in the A.L. East standings. Still, the defending champs are on several positive runs, including 102-49 overall, 39-15 against the A.L. Central, 6-2 in series openers, 7-2 on Tuesday, 65-29 against right-handed starters and 45-21 when coming off a defeat.
Minnesota failed to complete a three-game interleague sweep of the Brewers last weekend, falling 4-3 on Sunday after winning the first two games 15-3 and 8-7 (in 12 innings). The Twins are just 5-7 in their last 12 games – including losing two of three to the Yankees in the Bronx – but they’ve taken a liking to their new stadium going 14-7 through 21 games at Target Field (5-2 last seven). Going back to their days in the Metrodome, the Twins have won 24 of 33 home games, and they’re also on runs of 22-8 in series openers, 12-5 after a loss and 20-6 on Tuesday. On the flip side, they’ve lost 47 of 69 to A.L. East opponents and seven of nine after a day off.
Not only did the Twins lose two of three in New York earlier this month, but they’re 17-52 in the last 69 meetings (playoffs included). Last year, the Yankees went 4-0 in Minnesota, including a 4-1 victory to finish off a sweep of the best-of-5 divisional playoff series.
Five days after beating the Twins 8-4 at home – yielding two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings – Burnett got pounded 10-6 by the Rays on Wednesday, allowing six runs on nine hits and four walks in 6 2/3 innings. Still, with Burnett on the bump, New York is on upticks of 12-5 overall, 7-1 against the A.L. Central, 4-0 on Tuesday and 8-3 versus winning teams.
Burnett is 2-1 with a 4.99 ERA in five road starts this year. However, with that 8-4 home win on May 14, the Yankees are now 4-0 in Burnett’s four starts against the Twins since he signed with New York prior to the 2009 season. Going back to his time in Toronto in 2008, Burnett has led his teams to five straight wins over Minnesota, giving up just 10 runs in 38 1/3 innings (2.35 ERA).
Baker was a tough-luck 3-2 loser at Boston on Wednesday, giving up all three runs in six innings. However, the right-hander has three quality starts in four home appearances this year, going 3-1 with a 3.90 ERA. In fact, Minnesota is 10-2 in Baker’s last 12 home starts, as well as 4-0 in his last four on Tuesday.
The Twins have lost eight of Baker’s last 10 contests against A.L. East foes, and that includes Baker’s 8-4 loss to Burnett at Yankee Stadium 11 days ago, yielding five runs on 10 hits in six innings. Since winning his first two career starts against New York (two runs allowed in 12 innings), Baker has lost his last two (10 runs allowed in nine innings). He does have a strong 21-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio versus the Yanks.
New York sports “over” trends of 6-1 overall, 8-1-1 after a day off, 5-0 against right-handed starters, 10-4-1 in series openers, 9-2 in Burnett’s last 11 starts overall and 7-1 in his last eight road outings. Conversely, the under is 5-2 in the Yankees’ last seven road games, 6-1 in their last seven against the Central Division and 6-2 in Burnett’s last eight starts against the Central.
Minnesota is on “under” tears of 8-3 at home, 23-7-3 against the A.L. East, 5-2-2 after a day off, 24-7-2 following a loss, 5-1 on Tuesday and 4-1 in Baker’s last five starts against the A.L. East. However, the over is 7-3-2 in Baker’s last 12 starts overall, 3-1-1 in his last five at home, 8-2-1 in his last 11 when starting a series and 16-5-2 in his last 23 when coming off five days of rest.
The under has cashed in five of the last six Twins-Yankees battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
DUNKEL INDEX
LA Lakers at Phoenix
The Lakers look to bounce back from their 118-109 loss in Game 3 and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games after scoring 100 or more points in the previous game. LA is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+1)
Game 515-516: LA Lakers at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 125.444; Phoenix 124.837
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1; 225
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 220 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+1); Over
MLB
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
The Indians look to build on their 5-0 record on Mitch Talbot's last 5 starts as an underdog. Cleveland is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+115)
Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.222; Cincinnati (Leake) 16.370
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-165); Over
Game 903-904: Atlanta at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.665; Florida (Sanchez) 16.448
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-135);Over
Game 905-906: Philadelphia at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.973; NY Mets (Dickey) 14.411
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Over
Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.862; Cubs (Dempster) 15.684
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); No Total
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-105); N/A
Game 909-910: Houston at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Paulino) 14.138; Milwaukee (Wolf) 15.220
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Over
Game 911-912: Arizona at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.752; Colorado (Chacin) 15.002
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Over
Game 913-914: St. Louis at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.099; San Diego (Garland) 16.619
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Under
Game 915-916: Washington at San Francisco (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 14.200; San Francisco (Wellemeyer) 13.720
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-105); Under
Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 14.664; Cleveland (Talbot) 14.715
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+110); Over
Game 919-920: Oakland at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 13.970; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.997
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-105); Over
Game 921-922: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.553; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.983
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Under
Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.830; Minnesota (Baker) 14.163
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Under
Game 925-926: Texas at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harden) 15.422; Kansas City (Meche) 14.875
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Over
Game 927-928: Toronto at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.361; LA Angels (Santana) 15.812
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Under
Game 929-930: Detroit at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.281; Seattle (Fister) 15.404
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+105); Under
WNBA
Phoenix at Tulsa
The Mercury look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. Phoenix is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4 1/2)
Game 651-652: Phoenix at Tulsa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 116.057; Tulsa 108.743
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7 1/2; 175
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 178 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: Washington at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.365; Seattle 114.686
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 3 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 6 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6 1/2); Over
Red Dog Sports
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins +110
The Yankees have a few injuries and are off an emotional series vs. the New York Mets and now travel to Minnesota, where the Twins are 14-7. A.J. Burnett has an ERA of 8.15 in his last 3 starts while Scott Baker has been a solid starter for the Twins. Look for the Twins to win this and get some value as they are rarely an underdog at home.
Marc Lawrence
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Twins take on the Yankees in the opener of this three game series at the Target Center Tuesday night they will send Scott Baker to the hill against A.J. Burnett. Baker enters the contest 9-3 in his home career team starts in May, including 5-0 the last five. With Burnett sporting an 8.18 ERA in his last three starts, look for the Twins to be right on target here tonight.
Matt Fargo
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
Cleveland catches a very strong number at home and in my opinion, the Indians should not even be underdogs here. It is based on the name of the starting pitching matchup and that is just about it. The White Sox took the opener last night, just its second win against Cleveland this season after the Indians took five straight in the season series prior to Monday. Chicago is just two and a half games better than Cleveland including just one game with road/home splits. The Indians have been in a funk of late but playing against division leaders Tampa Bay and Cincinnati can do that. They look to bounce back tonight with a strong effort on the mount. Mitch Talbot is not a name that is very recognizable but he is having a very good season thus far. Through eight starts he has a 3.88 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with a 5-3 record, the most wins on the team. He is coming off his worst start of the season against the Royals and I expect a bounceback like the two we already saw when he had non-quality starts against the Tigers. He allowed a total of three runs in 17 innings in those two follow-up performances. He squares off against Jake Peavy who is the “name” pitcher mentioned earlier. He has been very up and down this season with a 5.74 ERA in nine starts including a 6.18 ERA in four road outings. Only one of those road outings was a quality game and while it happened to come against the Indians, it resulted in a loss. Conversely, Talbot’s best start this season came against the White Sox where he allowed just one run in a complete game 6-2 victory for the Tribe. Chicago is 5-10 this season against teams with a losing record while going 3-8 in their last 11 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Cleveland Indians
Steve Merril
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Oakland Athletics
Oakland brings a 3-game winning streak into this game with Baltimore. The Orioles return home after losing four of their last five games on the road. Dallas Braden goes for Oakland and he's 4-4 with a 3.45 ERA this season. The left hander has been solid giving up just six runs over his last 23 innings pitched. Despite the fact that he's been pitching well, Braden hasn't received that much run support. The lefty is 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA in five career starts against the Orioles. Braden has already defeated Baltimore at home giving up just two runs and three hits in seven innings of work. Nick Markakis (1-14), Adam Jones (0-11), Luke Scott (1-8), Miguel Tejada (1-5), Matt Wieters (1-5), Corey Patterson (1-4), and Cesar Izturis (0-2) all struggle against the lefty. As a team, Baltimore is 4-10 against lefties while hitting only .245 against them and scoring just 3.2 runs per game. Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie sports a 4.58 ERA in three starts at home where he's 1-2. The right hander has struggled big time with the Athletics in his career. Guthrie is 1-3 with a 5.15 ERA in six starts against the A's. He got a no-decision against Oakland this season after giving up two runs and six hits in 6.7 innings pitched. He gave up 11 runs in 5.4 innings of work against Oakland last season. Coco Crisp (7-20), Mark Ellis (4-11), Gabe Gross (3-10), Kurt Suzuki (5-10), Jack Cust (3-9), Rajai Davis (3-8), Ryan Sweeney (3-5), and Adam Rosales (1-3) all hit Guthrie well. Guthrie is backed by a Baltimore bullpen that has a 4.70 ERA and four blown saves at home this season. The A's are hitting .282 as a team over their last seven games, and their hot hitting should continue tonight against Guthrie. Oakland is laying a short price with the much better pitcher on the mound so we’ll recommend a play on the A’s in this spot tonight.
Craig Trapp
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Texas Rangers
Talking about domination of a team look at the record of TEX against KC (6-0 head to head L6)! Including a sweep in TEX earlier this month. Huge pitching mismatch as KC turns to winless Meche (0-4 6.75 ERA) against steady Harden (2-1 4.75 ERA). Harden is is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in five career starts against the Royals and allowed two runs over five innings in a home matchup May 8. KC is one of worst home teams going only 8-13! TEX has one of the best hitting lineups in MLB and just might become a slugfest tonight.
David Chan
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Take the Phillies and Jamie Moyer against the Mets and RA Dickey.
Dickey is a knuckleballer, and Red Sox knuckler Tim Wakefield gave the Phillies fits on Sunday afternoon. The Phils hit soft fly ball after soft fly ball and the Red Sox rolled.
That actually works in Philadelphia’s favor here. The Phillies will not be confused at the plate. The knuckleball is a novelty act. If the pitch was that effective, every 16-year-old kid would learn to throw it, and every major-league team would have two knuckleball starters and three in the ‘pen.
Dickey’s version hasn’t been that successful in its own right, and he’s bounced up and down from high-minors to majors in recent years. At 35, we can safely say his stuff will never be elite.
I hope a trivia-lover will write in to name the last team to face two consecutive knuckleballing starters. In this situation, I think Philly has a massive edge.
Jim Feist
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Washington Nationals
Hard to see why Livan Hernandez opens as a dog here against light hitting San Francisco (14th in the NL in runs scored). Hernandez has been on his game all season, at 4-2 with a 1.62 ERA. Washington is a .500 team, better than many expected, and the Giants go with their worst pitcher, Todd Wellemeyer (2-4, 5.71 ERA). He's allowed 27 walks in 41 innings and 12 free passes in his last 19 innings. Play the Nationals.
JR O'Donnell
OAK (-115) vs BAL
Oakland A's tonight boys as the "JR O" camp is in nasty mood after 3* hit on the Jays/Angels over.Back at it focused and ready tonight as "MR. PERFECT" Braden does seem a little cheap vs. a 14-31 Baltimore O's club with J Guthrie. Laying juice on the road is usually a loser , but tonight's spot has SHARP W written all over it. Lay it boys as Braden will not lose 3 straight after the perfect game, He actually threw well vs. the Detroit Tigers last game and that performance will carry over tonight. JR O is focused to sweep tonight with the Oakland A's. The O's are 2-13 against the A's from 2007 on.
Bobby Maxwell
St. Louis at SAN DIEGO (+125)
Two National League division leaders are squaring off here tonight at Petco Park in San Diego and they’ve both got their aces on the hill. The way the Padres’ pitching staff is rolling right now, I’m grabbing the plus-money with them in a low-scoring affair tonight.
San Diego just went 3-2 in a quick five-game road trip that saw they beat the Mariners Saturday and Sunday, outscoring Seattle 10-2 over the weekend. San Diego is on some nice runs, including 10-3 against N.L. Central teams, 20-8 against winning teams, 9-4 in series openers and 4-0 against right-handed starters.
For the Padres tonight, it’s Jon Garland (5-2, 2.38 ERA) on the mound, and they are 6-1 in his last seven starts, including 3-1 at home. Garland is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA at Petco this season, allowing three earned runs in 25 innings.
Adam Wainwright is on the hill for the Cardinals and he’s 6-2 with a 2.49 ERA this season, but he’s just 2-2 on the road.
San Diego has struggled against the Cardinals in the past, losing 11 of the last 12, four of five in Petco and a lousy 60-21 in the last 81 clashes. But this is a different San Diego team that takes advantage of the big ballpark, uses its speed and has a reliable bullpen.
Grab the plus-money and go with Garland tonight at home.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Brett Atkins
Delivered my second straight free winner on Monday night as the plus-money Red Sox went into Tampa and upset the Rays. Tonight I'm switching to the NBA hardwood for a comp winner in tonight's Western Conference Finals game.
The Suns won Game 3 and has made this an interesting series and their normally high-productive bench has yet to show up. They won because they executed in the fourth quarter on Sunday and because Amare Stoudemire decided that he’d be a force instead of blending in.
Looking at the numbers, the Suns had no reason to win Sunday, except for desire. Los Angeles shot a better percentage, won the rebounding stat, had more assists and limited the Suns’ bench to 15 points. That recipe should have added up to the victory but it didn’t.
So tonight, when the Phoenix bench joins the party, they should be able to pull away from the Lakers and create some space. The Suns are on ATS runs of 34-16-1 overall, 21-6-1 as a favorite, 35-15-1 after getting a day off and 19-7-1 after a spread-cover.
Meanwhile, we all know the Lakers don’t like to play after just one day off, going 4-12 ATS after just a day off. They like more days to rest the legs.
Play the Suns tonight and watch this series get interesting.
4♦ PHOENIX
Jimmy Moore
LA Lakers @ Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix +1
The Suns got into this series again by winning game 3 and that win will give the Suns some much needed confidence over the Lakers and it will show them how if they actually play defense they can be successful. Take the motivated home team behind the raucus fans to get the win and even up this series.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
We’ll back the Dodgers as a virtual pick ‘em here in Wrigley Field against the Cubs, as LA throws Clayton Kershaw tonight, and he’s been lights out over his last three starts. Against the Padres twice and the Rockes, Kershaw has allowed a combined two runs over 22 1/3 innings – good for a staggering 0.81 earned run average. And with the Cubs going six straight games without reaching 10 or more base hits, we think Kershaw gets the job done again tonight!
Play on: Los Angeles Dodgers
Tony George
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Detroit Tigers
Detroit sends Justin Verlander to hill against a Seattle team whose offense is deplorable and Verlander at this price is simply too good to pass up. I will play a half unit on Detroit to win against a sliding Mariners who is struggling at the plate against an excellent pitcher tonight.