Frank Jordan
Toronto Blue Jays vs. LA Angels
Play: LA Angels
Toronto won the opening game of the series 6-0 and improved to 16-9 on the road. For Tuesday they send 4-1 Ricky Romero to the mound who faced the Angels at home 5 weeks ago losing a tough one 3-1. The Angels counter with 3-3 Ervin Santana who does have an era under 4 and is 2-1 over his last three starts. Look for the Angel bats to have monster games after being shut out last night as Santana outduels Romero.
MTi Sports
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
The Giants are 14-1 as a favorite in the first game of a home series when they are off a loss and the Nats are 0-7 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has lost at least their last three games.
Sean Murphy
Astros @ Brewers
PICK: Over 9.5
Both of these teams have been struggling lately, but I don't think that will stop them from getting involved in a slugfest on Tuesday evening.
The Astros were held to just four runs over a three-game stretch before breaking out with a six-run performance against Tampa Bay on Sunday.
Milwaukee hasn't been winning many games, but it has been fairly consistent at the plate, scoring at least four runs in five of its last six games. The Brew Crew have seen the over go 19-8 in their last 27 games overall.
Felipe Paulino will get the call for the visiting Astros on Tuesday. He allowed just two hits and two earned runs over six innings in his last start, a 7-3 win over the Rockies. Of course, that outing came at home. On the road he is 0-2, allowing 14 hits and 12 earned runs over just 10 2/3 innings pitched.
The current Brewers roster has his Paulino hard, a collective .364 while slugging .727 in 44 career at-bats against him. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder have combined to go 7-for-15 (.467) at the plate against Paulino.
The Brewers will counter with Randy Wolf. Reports indicate that his velocity is down considerably, and it has shown in his poor results. In his last two starts he has been tagged for 17 hits and 12 earned runs over just 11 1/3 innings pitched. His ground ball to fly ball ratio sits at a rather alarming 78:110.
The current Astros roster is hitting just .272 in 103 career at-bats against Wolf, however Carlos Lee, Pedro Feliz, Hunter Pence, and Humberto Quintero have all homered off of him. As a team, they're slugging .524 against the veteran left-hander.
With both pitching staffs struggling right now, this one could break open at any time. The fact that we're able to play the total south of 10 is an added bonus. Take the over.
Tom Freese
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Scott Baker has 2 walks and 21 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Twins are 22-8 in Game One of a series. Minnesota is 50-24 their last 74 home games vs. a team with a with a winning record. The Twins are 10-2 in the last 12 starts made by Baker at home. The Yankees starter A.J. Burnett has allowed 18 runs in his last 3 starts. New York is 0-4 their last 4 games as favorites of -110 to -150. The Yankees are 2-6 their last 8 road games and they are 2-5 their last 7 games a road favorites. PLAY ON MINNESOTA +
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies -133
The Mets are coming off a huge series win over their inner-city rivals in the New YOrk Yankees. It sets up a big letdown spot in this opener of a 3-game set with the Phillies. Meanwhile, Philly comes in having lost 2 out of 3 to Boston and will be ready to go tonight. The advantage clearly goes to the Phillies on the mound with veteran lefty Jamie Moyer. Moyer is 5-3 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.051 WHIP this season, including 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA and miniscule 0.672 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is nothing more than a fill-in starter for the Mets. Dickey has been bounced around the big leagues, and for his career he is just 22-28 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.571 WHIP. It's hard to believe he is even in the majors still.
The Phillies are 18-6 against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Philly is 11-2 against the money line in road games after 4 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 8-1 in Moyers last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Philly has gone 37-15 in Moyer's last 52 starts vs. National League East foes. The Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Finally, Philly is 13-3 in their last 16 meetings with the Mets overall, including 5-1 in their last 6 road meetings. Bet the Phillies Tuesday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Rangers/Royals UNDER 10
The Rangers haven't brought their bats on the road this season, hitting only .236 and scoring just 3.8 runs per game away from home. With this in mind, Meche figures to be in command tonight when you consider the 2.84 ERA he has posted over his last 3 starts. Harden takes the bump for Texas and he has owned KC in his career with a 1.78 ERA in 5 starts. The Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two clubs in Kansas City. The Under is also 7-1 in the Rangers' last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Bet the Under tonight.
EZWINNERS
Milwaukee Brewers -165
The Astros are the worst organization in baseball right now. Not only are they have a horrible season, but they have the lowest rated farm system in the majors. They have nobody to call up that might help to get this club on track offensively. Roy Oswalt has pitched well this season, but now he is asking to be traded as well. The pitcher they send to the mound today has been horrible. Felipe Paulino is 0-6 with an ERA of 5.36 this season and he has a career record of 5.18 with an ERA of 6.11. The Brewers have hit him well as most teams have as Paulino is 0-3 with a 8.53 ERA in his career against Milwaukee. The Brewers starting pitcher Randy Wolf has not pitched very well this season, but I do expect him to get on track against the worst offensive team in major league baseball. The Astros are only 7-19 in the last twenty six trips to Milwaukee. Play on the Brewers.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +1.48 over MILWAUKEE
This equation is a rather simple one and it goes something like this: When Randy Wolf and the Brewers are a -1.57 favorite and the opposition players are not wearing bras, take the tag and let the chips fall where they may. The Brewers are a complete and utter disaster with nothing to offer but everything to get excited about when wagering against them. They give up runs in bunches while seldom scoring many of their own. Every reliever they bring in is worse than the last one and now Ken Macha is keeping in pitchers longer than he should because the relief has been so bad. It’s not unusual to see the Brewers playing from six or seven down very early. Randy Wolf (16 BPV, 3-1-5-0-2 PQS) has pitched every bit as poorly as his 5.10 ERA makes it appear. He has just one PQS-Dom performance in his last eight starts and he’s getting progressively worse. In fact, in four May starts, Wolf is 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA and a BAA of .326. His command is awful, his velocity is down and he pitches for one of the worst teams in the league. After seeing Ubaldo Jiminez, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann and David Price, facing Randy Wolf may appear in slow motion for the Astros. Felipe Paulino is a work in progress but the fact that he’s winless is a crime. Paulino has wicked stuff and that should bode well here against a Brewer team that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Paulino has three PQS-dominant outings in his last four starts. He features three outstanding pitches; a curve, slider and fastball that comes in at about 95MPH. In 23 innings this month the opposition is hitting just .230 off him. So, yeah, the Astros are challenged for sure and they’re having a horrible year but they’re slowly but surely coming around and they not nearly as bad as its record indicates. The Brewers are and frankly, the take-back is ludicrous. Play: Houston +1.48 (Risking 2 units).
Texas –1½ +1.16 over KANSAS CITY
There has to be something wrong with Gil Meche. Either that or he’s completely burned out. Meche has been brutally awful all year and even in his last game when he allowed just two runs in five frames he was awful. That pitching line is flattering as hell because Meche was literally behind every batter 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 or 3-1 and he’s lucky the Indians didn’t score eight or nine runs. The Royals have lost eight of the last 10 games that Meche has started and that’s unlikely to change here, as the Rangers always show up against this host and Meche is winless in his last 10 starts. In fact, Texas was won 16 of the last 21 meetings over the Royals and while Rich Harden is not having a good year by any stretch, this one is all about playing against Meche. And lastly, Meche has proven to be the easiest pitcher in the league to run against. He simply does not have the ability to keep runners from stealing because of a slow delivery to the plate. Singles turn into doubles and in eight games, Meche has allowed alarming 15 stolen bases. Play: Texas –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +1.23 over Pittsburgh
Paul Maholm’s last six starts have come against the Brewers twice, the Cubbies twice, the Astros and the Cardinals. The Cardinals and Brewers tagged him and a big correction is forthcoming in his 4.50 ERA. The league is till hitting .296 off Maholm and he’s about to face one of the hottest hitting clubs in the majors. The Reds have scored 58 times over its last 10 games and they’re batting .313 over that stretch. They’re 6-2 at home against lefties and overall the Reds have won 12 of its last 16 games. Mike Leake is 3-0 at home with a BAA of .205, which is even more impressive when you consider this hitter’s park he pitches in. Just 30% of balls in play off him have been hit in the air to the outfield. This guy throws strikes, he induces ground balls and the Reds have won six of the eight games he’s started for them. Entering Monday's game, a frigid Pittsburgh offense had just two jacks and 18 runs over the past week -- both major-league lows. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1.01 over CHICAGO
Although Ryan Dempster is a solid pitcher, he can’t get it done on his own. The fact that we can take Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers and lay a penny against the Cubs is pretty much all you need to know about this one. Just in case you wanted more convincing, how about the fact that the Dodgers are about 100 times better than the Cubbies in every way possible. L.A. has also won six in a row on the road and they’re bullpen might be 200 times better than the Cubbies. Chicago has picked it up by winning six of its last eight but that’s fools gold. This edition of the Cubs is the worst edition in years and it’s only a matter of time before Lou Pinella starts pulling out his hair again. Clayton Kershaw is one of the best in the business when he throws strikes and after a horrible start he has returned to his dominant form. Kershaw is 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA over his last three, all PQS 5’s. Play: Los Angeles –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Boston +1.03 over TAMPA BAY
The Rays have scored the most runs in the AL while allowing the least and they've hardly given their opposition a chance to breathe. With no one on base, the Rays' offense has been in the middle of the pack. In run-scoring situations, however, they've posted the best OPS in the league. And not just the best - the best by 90 points. The Yankees come in second, at .837. Clearly, the Rays have excelled when they've needed to. Unfortunately, clutch hitting isn't a skill. Or at least, clutch hitting isn't a skill, on the team level to this degree. They'll continue to be a very good team but the rate at which they've been pushing runs across the plate is due to slow down because they're not going to keep outpacing everyone else with runners in scoring position. As things begin to even out over the coming months, the Rays will score fewer runs, and as they score fewer runs, they'll win fewer games. Enter Jon Lester, one of the best in the business. Man, is this guy good. Lester is dialed in right now with a BAA of .181 in four May starts after allowing just 19 hits in 31 IP. On the year he’s struck out 63 batters in 59.2 innings and frankly, I really don’t care who he’s facing. When you can get a tag on Lester and the surging Red Sox, take it and ask no questions. Oh, one last tidbit here is that the Rays are 4-11 in James Shield’s last 15 starts vs the Red Sox. Play: Boston +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
St. Louis / San Diego Over
San Diego and St. Louis are low-scoring teams and Petco Park is one of the most pitching friendly stadiums in baseball but the 'over' has hit in seven of the last ten meetings between these teams and this total will match the lowest between these teams in that span. Adam Wainwright has delivered a terrific start to the season but he has allowed two or more runs in six of his last seven outings and he is walking batters with a bit more frequency than last season. Wainwright's road ERA is over a half-point higher than that at home and he has not pitched as well in night games. Over his last three starts his WHIP is 1.37 and his ERA is 3.79 so he has fallen off his early season pace. Jon Garland remains solid and steady for the Padres but he has struck out just four more batters than he has walked this season. Three times this season has walked at least four batters and he has not lasted past the seventh inning in any start this year. Garland has an excellent ERA but his he is allowing far too many runners on base to maintain that clip. His last start was one of his worst of the season despite still picking up the win, allowing four runs and nine hits in just five innings of work. St. Louis has scored 26 runs in the last four games as the offense appears to be heating up. The Padres have also scored six or more runs in four of the last six games as this has been a much better scoring team than most would expect. Both teams have been strong 'under' squads this season but this total has been severely depressed and value is certainly on the 'over' in this match-up.
WUNDERDOG
Oakland at Baltimore
Pick: Under 8
The Baltimore Orioles' offense is just not up to major league standards. There is a situation that worsens the situation, taking a sub-par offense and making it one that is futile. The Orioles have only been able to score just over 3 runs per game vs. left-hand pitching on the season. They will face Dallas Braden who has a 3.45 ERA on the season, and held the Birds to just 2 runs earlier in the season. The A's offense isn't exactly knocking any fences down either. Over their last 12 games, the A's have been shutout twice, producing just a single run four times and overall, 3 or less in nine of the 12 games. Oakland is a strong 7-1 to the UNDER behind Braden as a favorite. That says this one stays UNDER the total.
Glenn McGrew
Lakers/Suns
Game 4s are different in that so much is riding on this game. The Lakers can take a commanding 3-1 series lead, or the Suns can tie it up. With so much at stake, teams often unveil their best defense (as we saw last night in the Boston/Orlando game). Phoenix went with a zone defense in Game 3 and expect more wrinkles tonight. The Lakers were tops in the NBA at defending the three pointer, so look for a supreme defensive effort attacking the Suns’ top long range weapon. Play the Lakers/Suns Game 4 Under the total.
Spartan
LAL -1.5 (-110) vs PHO
I've got to give credit where due as the Suns came up big for the home crowd and showed tremendous heart getting a huge victory to stay out of that dreaded 0-3 hole. Alvin Gentry could plainly see with the rest of the world that his club simply does not match up well with the Lakers and went heavily to zone coverage and thanks in large part to the Lakers not having a great shooting night, it actually worked, at least on sunday. Now that Gentry and his club have shown their hand I suspect Phil Jackson and his guys might go about their business tonight acting more like they have a clue against it. Also a point from the first game that I think has been largely underplayed is the stubborn fact that the Suns really seemed to be on the ref's good side getting a clear advantage in trips to the charity stripe, more than twice the free throw attempts. Also, in the last game Stoudemire constantly drove to the basket and I suspect Jackson got into his post players ears some about drawing some charges and cutting those out.
The bottom line is the Suns did what they had to do the other night and got some help from the officials in my view and coupled with a less than normal effort from the Lakers it all resulted in a home win for Phoenix. The Lakers WILL make some adjustments tonight both in strategy and mental approach and I doubt they will struggle once again shooting the rock. Fact is the Lakers have still prevailed in 9 of the last 12 in the series between these two and the straight up winner is a stellar 14-1 against the number in the last 15 games. I look for the Lakers to go out tonight and restore order guys. Take the Lakers and lay the short number, it's the play tonight!!
Sac Lawson
WAS (+110) vs SFG
Todd Wellemeyer spent a little time in Eugene, so I've had the opportunity to follow this guy's career from single A half season all the way up to the major leagues. I'll say this, I still don't see him as a Major League pitcher. He's got good movement on all of his pitches, and when he's in the zone it makes him tough to hit. But his command is that of a Triple A lifer, simple as that.
I fully understand that SFG at home is tough to bet against, but I have absolutely zero faith in Wellemeyer in the major leagues, and there is no way I'm going to assume that Livan Hernandez is going to fall back to earth. Don't get me wrong, Livan is pitching out of his mind so far this year, but the guy is a beast, and I'd much rather ride a hot streak than predict the end of one.
One concern I have is the fact that Livan pitched his last start on just 3 days rest.. obviously that's an issue, but if there is one thing this man has proven over the course of his career it's the fact that fatigue just isn't an issue. Livan has proven success all year long, if you give me an underdog price against a San Fran starter who is no better than most of the guys you'll see in Triple A, I've simple gotta bite.
1 unit Washington!
Andre Gomes
Phoenix Mercury @ Tulsa Shock
177.5 points? You must be insane! Well, I'm not as according to my projected line we should be dealing with a 181/183 points line.
In my opinion this is not an inflated line, we are dealing with the two fastest paced teams in the league. Even though they play in different styles both teams want to score in transition and if you want a NBA analogy this would be a NBA Suns vs. Warriors' kind of game.
Tulsa struggled in the first two contests because they ran out of gas in the second halves. In both contests against Minnesota and San Antonio they were tied at the break but they couldn't keep the pace for the second half. The biggest reason for that was caused by their style of playing - which is physically brutal combined by a bad rotation of players from their coach. Bottom line, no WNBA player can play 30+ minutes in such frantic pace and down the stretch the Shock players were literally "dead tired".
However in the last game against Minnesota, the Shock pulled the upset and scored 94 points! Wow! Coach Nolan realized this: "no WNBA player can play 30+ minutes in such frantic pace" and so just look for the Shock' players minutes logged:
Alexis Hornbuckle 24:15
Chante Black 25:04
Kara Braxton 15:49
Scholanda Robinson 21:16
Shanna Crossley 16:04
Plenette Pierson 21:54
Shavonte Zellous 21:02
Amber Holt 20:13
Natasha Lacy 19:47
Amanda Thompson 11:26
Marion Jones 3:10
See coach that worked! Tulsa was able to play their very unique style by using a heavily rotation just to keep their players fresh during the game. They need badly to create turnovers and score in the paint to be effective on the offensive end and so far no team in the WNBA has more turnovers than the Mercury and/or have suffered more points in the paint than….the Mercury so I expect a strong offensive display from Tulsa tonight.
Meanwhile Phoenix is 1-1 to start the season and their offense is yet to explode. You can argue with me that the absence of Pondexter is a huge blow for them but remember that they played against Los Angeles and Seattle and these two teams for sure will be ranked in the top in defense when the season will be over. By trying to force turnovers, the Shock defense is forced to give space on the perimeter and the Mercury have plenty of good shooters on the team and this contest will be shootout game since the start.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 177.5
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on the Philies as they take on the NY Mets set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game. Phillies are coming off a tough 3 game set with Boston losing 2 of 3. Dice-K, who threw a 1 hitter and had a no hitter with 2 outs in the 8th, and Wakefield did a great job of containing this high octane offense. Mets starter Dickey has no chance to replicate those 2 starts. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 129-55 making 44.3 units since 2004. Play against all NL dogs in the month of May with a money line of +100 or higher and is hitting <=.255 facing a team with a good bullpen posting an ERA <=3.75. The ageless wonder Jamie Moyer takes to the hill and he is 14-5 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons; 14-3 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. He is now second on the all-time list with home runs allowed at 501 and just 4 behind the record holder of the late Robin Roberts with 505. This is not all bad though as to allow 500 home runs you must have lasted a very long time in MLB. Similar to the fact that strike out king Nolan Ryan also has the record for most walks. Mets are just 17-31 (-18.8 Units) against the money line versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last 3 seasons. Phils are a rock solid 11-2 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games after 4 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. Phillies roll big in this one.