Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -106
The Dodgers are hot and Kershaw has been good, but I have to side with the Cubbies at home tonight. The Dodgers are still a below .500 road team, and they are up against a pitcher who has had their number. Dempster is 6-3 lifetime (9-3 on the money line) when starting against LA with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 1.264. The 2 times he faced LA last season, he gave up 0 earned runs and a total of just 6 hits. The Cubs has won 5 of Dempsters last 6 series opening starts while the Dodgers have dropped 8 of Kershaw's last 9 series opening starts. Plus, LA is just 3-7 in its last 10 games as a road underdog and 2-8 in its last 10 games following an off day. Take the Cubs at home tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -133
The Cards have weathered the storm, showing some life after a tough stretch with 5 wins in their last 7 games. Expect the winning to continue tonight behind Wainwright, who is 6-2 with a 2.49 ERA. San Diego is one of those teams the Cards have owned with 12 wins in the last 14 meetings against them. With Garland being 0-3 lifetime against the Cards with an ERA of 7.36, St. Louis should be in the driver's seat again. Take the Cards.
Jeff Allen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks
Ian Kennedy was the odd man to Phil Hughes in the battle of Yankee pitching prospects but has seemingly found a home with the Snakes. Kennedy rocks 2-1 W/L and 1.93 ERA over his L4 starts and vultured a win by the "arson squad", the Arizona bullpen. Jhouls Chacin has been good in his five starts but in his only start at Coors Field, was beat about the head by the Nasty Nats. Arizona has had success in the series (25-14) and at Coor Field 12-9. Thinking Arizona could be a very live dog here. Take the Snakes.
Black Widow
1* on Florida Marlins -123
We'll back the Marlins and starter Anibal Sanchez Tuesday, who is 3-2 with a 3.28 ERA this season and 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last 3 starts. In nine career starts against the Braves, Sanchez has allowed more than 4 earned runs just once which means he has given his team a chance to win almost every time he takes the mound vs. New York. The same cannot be said for Kenshin Kawakami, who has struggled mightily this season. Kawakami remains winless this year, going 0-6 with a 4.98 ERA. Kawakami is 0-5 with a 5.46 ERA on the road this season as well. In three career starts against the Marlins, Kawakami is 1-2 with a 5.94 ERA. Florida is hitting .277 and scoring 5.5 runs/game at home this season, while the Braves are hitting .231 and putting up a mere 4.1 runs/game on the road this year. The Braves are 2-10 in their last 12 games as an underdog. The Marlins are 20-7 in their last 27 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Marlins on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on New York Yankees -107
Reasons the Yankees win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. This is a 43-9 ML System hitting 82.7% since 1997 while gaining +32 units.
2.) The Yankees have the Twins' number, going 52-17 in the last 69 meetings. The Yankees are 4-0 in A.J. Burnett's last 4 starts vs. Minnesota where he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in all four starts. Twins' starter Scott Baker is 0-2 in his last 2 starts vs. New York, allowing 10 earned runs, 19 hits and 3 walks in 9 innings. After losing 5 of their last 6, we look for the Yankees to rebound in a big way tonight. Bet New York on the road.
GREG SHAKER
Baltimore Orioles +102
Most of you already know that I am not a Number's Guy so I am not going to go into any depth with the starting pitcher stats. The fact is, both of these guys are pretty damn good this year. Two things strike me here and the first is the Orioles Success verses Lefties, especially right here at home. The second is the fact that Oakland has NO Success when they travel, losing 5 of their last 19 dating back to last year. I had these A's as My Best Bet Sunday but I can't back them here as the actually have a worse Bullpen than does Baltimore in the Away/Home Situation. The fact is all of their road stats are down, including their starters who have an ERA of near near 6 runs when traveling. Money continues to pour on the Athletics and they are quickly becoming the Public Play of The Day. Good for me as I will wait and get a better number than what is posted.
Texas Rangers/KC Royals Over 9.5 -115
Ok, don't get all excited. The primary reason why I am posting this one is that My MLB Totals Model has this one at 11.5 Runs and that is a full 2 runs over the posted Total. We do have both teams in their best hitting condition, we do have favorable weather patterns, and we do have 2 throwers who are WHIPing poorly this year. Meche has put together a couple of good starts but he is apt to go back to Mr Hyde and at any monent. If he does, this one could be easy and if he does not, we still have a chance with with KC Subpar Pen situation. This is a high number to cover and the reason why it is not a premium selection.
AZ Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies Over 9 -120
Buying down on this one but I don't think we are going to need it. Good Coors Field Weather here tonight and MY MLB Model showing that number being reached almost 60% of the time. We do have capable pitchers on the mound but we also have capable offensive attacks and I suspect we will see a few Dingers for this one. The AZ Bullpen. Let's just say we already know about them. They are at their worst when this team travels and the primary reason they have a Gazillion OVERS when they do.