Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday May, 29

Marc Lawrence

Baltimore Orioles at Blue Jays
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Wen the Orioles send Jake Arrieta to the mound against Ricky Romero and the Blue Jays in Toronto Tuesday evening Baltimore will do so knowing Arrieta is 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA in his road team starts as opposed to 1-5 with a 6.43 ERA at home this campaign. On the other side of the coin, Romero enters tonight's fray in terrible KW form with 13 strikeouts and 16 strikeouts in his last three starts. With that we'll back the Birds tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baltimore.

Rob Vinciletti

Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins

Oakland fits a system here tonight that has lost 12 of 17 times and plays against road favorites off a 1 run road dog loss that scored 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits, vs an opponent that scored 5 or more runs in a 1 run home favored win. Oakland has lost all 3 times this season as a road favorite from -100 to -125 and hits just .210 vs right handed pitchers. The Twins have De Vries making his first home start as he takes on Oakland J. Parker who has a 7.27 road era. Look for the Twins to take another from Oakland.

Ben Burns

Diamondbacks @ Giants
PICK: Giants

With a 4-2 victory in yesterday's series opener, the Giants are now 14-6 the last 20 times that hosted the Diamondbacks. Given the current form of today's scheduled starters and given their success vs. southpaws, I feel the Giants have an excellent shot at another victory this evening.

The Giants have dominated left-handed starters, at least from a win/loss standpoint. They're 63-43 (+16.4) against southpaws the past 2+ seasons, including a 9-5 (+5.6) mark so far this year.

Given that success vs. southpaws, its not surprising to learn that the Giants have hit Saunders well. In five starts vs. San Francisco, Saunders is 0-4 with an ugly 5.52 ERA and an awful 1.774 WHIP.

Speaking of poor numbers, Saunders has a 6.75 ERA and 1.673 WHIP his last three starts.

On the other hand, Vogelsong is 2-0 with an outstanding 1.77 ERA and 0.984 WHIP his last three starts. In four home starts this season, Vogelsong has a 1.32 ERA.
It should also be noted that Vogelsong is 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA in four starts vs. Arizona.

While the Dbax haven't seen Vogelsong since last September, the Giants have already pounded Saunder this season, a 7-3 victory on 5/13. Consider SF

Jesse Schule

Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are visiting the Rangers in Texas on Tuesday, and you know what they say about Texas? Apparently EVERYTHING is big in Texas, well the Mariners are the BIG underdog in this one. At first glance that might seem reasonable, after all the Rangers have one of the best records in baseball, while Seattle has struggled, losing their last five games, adding to an already unimpressive losing record.

Seattle starter Jason Vargas is one of the few pitchers in the majors that boasts excellent numbers against the Rangers Josh Hamilton, however with Hamilton unlikely to play on Tuesday this might be of little consequence. There are also a few players on the Texas roster that have lit up Vargas throughout their careers, Micheal Young and Ian Kinsler are both hitting over .400 versus Vargas, and Nelson Cruz has three homers in 19 at bats.

Those numbers are not particularly encouraging, I have to admit, however lets just check out how Seattle fares versus the Texas hurler. The Mariners last victory just so happens to be the last appearance of Rangers Scott Feldman, who starts for Texas on Tuesday. In last week's victory at Safeco, Alex Liddi hit a grand slam off Feldman, chasing him from the game in the fourth inning. Liddi is 4-5 lifetime versus Feldman, who has failed to get through five innings in each of his last three starts. These aren't the kind of numbers that justify the Rangers being heavily favored in this one.

With Josh Hamilton likely unavailable, and a starting pitcher that isn't likely going to last much longer in the rotation, I believe Texas will give the Mariners a chance to win in this one. Texas is the better team, there is no doubt about that, however given the enormous line, there is good value on Seattle as an underdog here. I suggest considering a play on the Mariners to get the upset over the heavily favored Rangers.

Jim Feist

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs
Pick" Chicago Cubs

A long road trip for the last place Padres who, like last year, are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They face Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs, who is blossoming into an effective starter with a 4-3 record and a 3.00 ERA. He has walked only 18 in 57 innings with 57 Ks. The Padres are 17-35 in their last 52 road games and go with Eric Stults, who is 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA in his career against Chicago allowing 18 base runners in 7 innings! Play the Cubs.

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Homer Bailey is 5-0, 1.94 lifetime against the Pirates. But the home team is hot and as the Bucs have been my free play winner each of the last two days, I want to stay on them here as plus money. The Pirates are once again the choice.

SPORTS WAGERS

SAN ANTONIO -4½ over Oklahoma City

The Thunder are a very good team. In addition to a successful regular season, they’ve advanced to this stage by beating two solid clubs in the Mavericks and Lakers. They’re a tough out every night and with stars Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, they can never be taken lightly. However, the books have this one wrong. The Spurs closed as a 5½-point choice in Game 1 and did not cover, as they trailed by nine going to the fourth and ended up winning by three. For those of you that cashed your ticket on the Thunder, and there were many folks that did, consider it found money, as we both know it was one of the luckier wins of the year after James Harden hit three desperation triples in the final minute, the last one with no time remaining on the clock to get the Thunder the cover. Let’s not forget that the Spurs had not been battle tested all postseason, they were off for several days and they barely broke a sweat in two previous series when sweeping both the Jazz and Clippers. What should not be ignored is that they rose to the occasion in the fourth quarter. The Spurs opened with a 9-0 run to tie it early on and then scored at will the rest of the way until they were comfortably up by 10 with a minute to go. They dominated on defense and every player that Gregg Popovich sent in was effective and near flawless. The Spurs could certainly be excused for being a little flat during stretches in the first three quarters. The Spurs have beaten OKC three out of four games this season and Manu Ginobili missed the first three. The Spurs are much deeper, more experienced and if the fourth quarter is any indication of things to come, this should be a comfortable cover. Play: San Antonio -4½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

ATLANTA +103 over St. Louis

Pulling the trigger with a team on a losing streak is sometimes tough, especially when said team is a perennial bottom feeder. However, that is not the case with the Braves. They’ve been a model franchise for years. They’re always in the thick of things and they can win almost any night. Like tonight. Jake Westbrook favored in Atlanta is ludicrous. Westbrook’s 1.67 ERA on the road is even more ludicrous as this is a pitcher with average skills that say he cannot maintain that low ERA. His BAA is .267, he has a career 4.27 ERA and the Cardinals have lost four of his last five starts. Against current Braves hitters, Westbrook has a BAA of .325, an OBP of .373 and a slugging percentage of .403. Randall Delgado has had his fair share of bad luck in the early going, with a 10% home run per fly ball rate, 69% strand rate, and an ERA much higher than his xERA. Delgado has impressed with his 50% groundball rate and a solid strikeout rate. There are sure to be some growing pains for Delgado but the future looks bright for the 22-year-old. He’s also been much more effective at home and we have no problem backing him here. Play: Atlanta +103 (Risking 2 units).

Baltimore +128 over TORONTO

The Baltimore Orioles are the surprise of baseball. They lead the AL East and have taken five of seven against the Blue Jays already this season. Jake Arrieta had a 4.66 ERA in 2010 and a 5.05 ERA in 2011 so his 4.87 ERA this season might signify that he is the same pitcher. He’s not. His base skills have improved dramatically with a groundball rate of 48% and a solid BB/K ratio of 16/53 in 61 frames. An unlucky 65% strand rate has Arietta’s ERA at an elevated level but his 2.77 ERA on the road suggests he’s worth keeping an eye on. Arietta deserves better than his current 2-5 mark. Meanwhile, Ricky Romero is a pitcher on a serious skills decline. In his last four starts, Romero has faced Oakland, Minnesota, the Mets and Tampa Bay, not exactly the cream of the crop, resulting in an xERA of 4.52. Romero keeps walking batters. He’s already issued 37 in 65 innings and only half of his 10 starts can be considered quality. Two misleading W/L records oppose one another here. Ricky Romero’s 5-1 record against Jake Arietta’s 2-5 record is misleading but if justice prevails, we should cash this ticket. Play: Baltimore +128 (Risking 2 units).

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

San Antonio/ Oklahoma City Over 201.5: I had the Over in game and it was a loser, but I will come right back with it here. In game 1 these teams really were feeling each other out and the offenses never got going till the 4th quarter, but tonight I expect both teams to to be a bit better at the offensive end of the floor. The Spurs put up 101 points in game 1, but for the year they have averaged 105.8 ppg at home, including 106.8 ppg at home in the playoffs. The Spurs have allowed just 93.3 ppg at home this year, but the Thunder are a high scoring team and they have averaged 100.3 ppg on the road this year, plus they have put up 101.8 ppg in the four games these teams have played this year. Game 1 took a while to get going, but game two will be different. these teams will push tempo from the get -go, on their ways to posting an easy over here.

Matt Fargo

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

The inevitable Baltimore slide has started as with the loss on Monday, the Orioles are 2-6 over their last eight games and remain tied for first place in the American League East with Tampa Bay. They have been very strong on the road this season with a 15-7 record but they have dropped two straight on the highway and this is certainly going to keep coming down as the season progresses. Despite the great road record, Baltimore is hitting just .242 on the road while the starters have posted a 4.97 ERA.

Toronto snapped its five-game losing streak with a much needed win on Monday. The pitching came through after a horrendous run where they allowed an average of 9.4 rpg during that losing skid. The starting pitching has been solid at home with a 3.49 ERA and we should see that continue on Tuesday. The Blue Jays have won five of their last six games at home and taking care of Baltimore here has not been an issue as they are 42-13 in the last 55 home meetings with the Orioles.

The Blue Jays look to keep the solid home pitching alive with Ricky Romero who is coming off a poor start on the road. He has come back every previous time though with a quality start following a non-quality outing. He is 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA at home and his only bad outing at home came against the Rangers which is not a surprise at all. The Blue Jays are 14-3 in Romero's last 17 home starts and they are 5-0 in his last five home starts against the Orioles. Six of his last eight starts against Baltimore have been quality.

Baltimore counters with Jake Arrieta who has been either really good or really bad this season. Only four of his 10 starts this season have been quality outings and while the road has been better, his recent form overshadows that. He has a 7.15 ERA in his last four starts and while the home/road split favors the highway, this is not a good spot for that to continue. The Orioles are 0-8 in Arrieta's last eight starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game.

JEFF BENTON

Your Tuesday freebie is the Over in the Thunder-Spurs game.

Game One on Sunday was unable to clear the 204 point total, as the the teams combined for 199 total points. I expect to see a few more baskets tonight, as both Russell Westbrook and James Harden can be counted on to pick things up from their "off" nights on Sunday.

Sunday night's Under snapped a streak of four straight Overs in this series, and Oklahoma City is still on a 7-3 Over clip their ten playoff games contested this postseason.

I think there is just too much offense on the court tonight to contain, and with the total coming down a couple of points from the Sunday night price, look for Game Two to make its way Over the total in the closing minutes as I see free throws pushing this one to a 5-1 series run with the Over in the last six meetings between these rivals.

3♦ OVER

MLB Predictions

Toronto Blue Jays -134

The Blue Jays will look to take the first two games of this three game set with the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Baltimore leads the AL East with their 29-20 record, while the Jays sit 4th with a 25-24 record. The Blue Jays snapped a 5 game losing skid last night with their 6-2 over Baltimore behind Drew Hutchison. Toronto seems to be one of the most streakiest teams in baseball, and have often put together small winning streaks followed by small losing streaks (rarely going L, W, L). In fact they've only had 2 wins this season that came off of a loss and were followed by a loss. The Orioles have lost three straight and 6 of their last 8, and now might be the time they start slowing down a bit and slide down the AL East standings. The Orioles will face Toronto's ace Ricky Romero. Although Romero has been struggling with his command I think the extra day off should really benefit him (The Blue Jays are 9-1 in Romero's last 10 starts with 5 days of rest). Romero is 5-1 on the season with a 3.86 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .208 opponents batting average. At home he is 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA and low .194 opponents batting average. Baltimore will have Jake Arrieta on the mound tonight for his first start of the season against the Blue Jays. Arrieta is 2-5 with a 4.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .264 opponents batting average. Arrieta has been very inconsistent this season, and 3 of his last 4 starts he allowed 4+ earned runs against (6, 7, 1, and 4 over his last 4 starts). The Orioles are just 2-5 in Arrieta's last 7 starts overall, and 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs divisional opponents. The Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 home games, and 14-3 in their last 17 home games when Romero has started. The Blue Jays are also 17-6 in Romero's last 23 starts overall, and 8-3 in his last 11 starts vs divisional opponents. Toronto is 7-1 in Romero's last 8 starts vs the Orioles, and 42-13 in their last 55 meetings in Toronto. We're getting generous odds tonight because of Romero's struggles to find the plate, but following this Jays team a lot I feel that Romero will have his stuff back tonight after the added day of rest with the off day on Thursday in Texas. Look for the Jays to get another win here tonight against the Orioles behind the ace of their staff. Take Toronto on the moneyline.

Rocketman

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore travels to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays in Game Two of this 3 game series. Baltimore is allowing 6 runs per game on turf this year. Toronto is scoring 5.4 runs per game at home this year. Jake Arrieta takes the mound for Baltimore where he is 2-5 with a 4.87 ERA overall this year and 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA his last 3 starts. Ricky Romero is 5-1 with a 3.86 ERA overall this year and 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA at home this season. Toronto is 17-5 at home vs Baltimore the past 3 years. Romero is 6-3 with a 3.10 ERA in all his starts vs Baltimore. Baltimore is 0-5 last 5 games when Arrieta starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Baltimore is 0-8 when Arrieta starts after their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Toronto is 6-0 last 6 games when Romero starts at home against a team with a winning record. Toronto is 14-3 last 17 games when Romero starts at home. Baltimore is 13-42 last 55 games in Toronto. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!

Dave Price

Detroit Tigers -155

The Tigers get the call as our free selection with ace Justin Verlander on the bump. This is a little more chalk than I usually like to lay, especially on a road club, but the Tigers are an impressive 35-7 in Verlander's last 42 starts as a favorite of -150 or more. They are also 17-1 in his last 18 starts as a road favorite of -125 or more. Plus, the Tigers have won his last 2 starts versus Bean Town, during which he has given up no runs on 6 hits in 15 2-3 innings. Take the Tigers.

Jeff Alexander

Tampa Bay Rays -162

The White Sox are playing their best ball of the season, but they find themselves at a disadvantage this evening. Tampa Bay's James Shields is 6-2 with an ERA of 3.63 in 10 starts this season, and the Rays have won 8 of those. Chicago's Phil Humber, on the other hand, is 1-2 with a 5.80 ERA in 8 starts. The Sox have lost 5 of those. The White Sox are 5-14 in Humber's last 19 starts, 1-9 in his last 10 starts as an underdog, 0-6 in his last 6 starts vs. the American League East and 0-8 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 16-5 in Shields' last 21 home starts, 8-1 in his last 9 starts as a home favorite, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and 7-2 in hi last 9 starts vs. the American League Central. Plus, the Rays are 6-2 in Shields' last 8 starts vs. the White Sox and 4-1 in Shields' last 5 home starts against them. Take Tampa Bay.