Steve Janus
Toronto Blue Jays -127
The Blue Jays are showing some great value as a small home favorite against the Orioles on Tuesday. Toronto will send out their ace Ricky Romero, who is 5-1 with a 3.86 ERA on the season. Romero has had no problems shutting down the Orioles of late. He is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA in the series since 2010 and has pitched at least eight innings in each of his last three starts against the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays offense should be able to score enough runs against Baltimore's Jake Arrieta. In 10 starts this season, Arrieta is 2-5 with a 4.87 ERA. He has been especially bad of late, going 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.836 WHIP in his last three starts.
Toronto is 10-2 in Romeros last 12 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 14-3 in Romeros last 17 home starts, and 9-2 in Romeros last 11 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays -127
I'm siding with the Toronto Blue Jays tonight as a small home favorite over the Baltimore Orioles. They send ace Ricky Romero to the mound to face a team that he has had a lot of success against throughout his career.
Romero is off to another solid start this season, going 5-1 with a 3.86 ERA in 10 starts. He is unbeaten at home, going 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in five starts. Romero is 6-3 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 12 career starts against Baltimore.
The left-hander hasn't had any problems recently against the Orioles, pitching at least eight innings while winning his last three starts with a 1.11 ERA. Romero is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA in the series since 2010. Jake Arrieta got off to a fast start for Baltimore, but he's 0-3 with a 7.15 ERA in his last four outings.
The Orioles are 0-5 in Arrieta's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Blue Jays are 14-3 in Romero's last 17 home starts. Toronto is a perfect 6-0 in Romero's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 13-42 in the last 55 meetings in Toronto. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Romero's last 5 home starts vs. Orioles. Bet Toronto Tuesday.
Jimmy Boyd
Miami Marlins -135
With Monday's 5-3 victory over the Nationals, the Marlins have now won 19 of 27 games this month. Expect their hot May to continue with Anibal Sanchez (2.87 ERA) on the hill. He's 7-0 (12-6 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.10 in 18 career starts versus Washington. The Marlins are 8-1 in Sanchez's last 9 home starts vs. the Nationals.
The Nationals' Edwin Jackson, meanwhile, is just 1-3 with an ERA of 6.64 in 4 career starts versus the Marlins. Jackson (3.37 ERA) hasn't received much run support. The Nats have dropped each of his last 4 starts and 6 of his last 7. They have lost all 5 of his road starts this season. Take Miami.
Bryan Power.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
Considering what the Dodgers have already done this season, particularly at home, this looks like a real "steal," particularly off a loss on Monday. Despite falling 3-2 to the Brewers on Memorial Day, LA remains a very healthy 21-6 at Chavez Ravine for the season and that includes a perfect 13-0 mark when priced between -125 and -175 on the money line. Milwaukee has not been an effective road team for the most part this season, scoring only 3.5 runs per game, and they are only 9-16 overall in May.
The reason this line is so low is that it's a battle of two pitchers making their first start, thus you have the "unknown commodity" factor. At least Los Angeles starter Nathan Eovaldi has starting experience at the MLB level, making six of them last season. In eight minor league starts this season, Eovaldi posted a 3.18 ERA. For the Brewers, Michael Fiers makes his first career start at this level. He had a 4.42 ERA for Triple A Nashville and was only called up to fill the void in the rotation left by the injured Marco Estrada.
It looks like Matt Kemp is set to return for LA, which is big considering his offensive production pre-injury. Going back to last season, Milwaukee is 19-39 as an underdog. Go with the home team.
Lenny Del Genio
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
It was a record setting day yesterday at The Trop with White Sox starter Chris Sale striking out 15 Tampa Bay hitters, outdueling the Rays' Matt Moore, who struck out 10. Chicago has been hot as of late, sweeping the Indians over the weekend, but tonight's starter Phillip Humber has been terrible since throwing MLB's 21st perfect game on April 21st against a Seattle team that seemingly every pitcher shuts down. Since that perfect game, Humber has not won in six starts with a 8.22 ERA. He allowed five runs over 4.3 IP in his last trip to the hill, which the team managed to win, 11-8 over Minnesota. We look for the hot Chicago bats to get shut down here by "big game" James Shields, who has a 22-4 team start record as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 price range. The Rays have won eight of his 10 starts this season and he struck out 10 his last time out. TB is 17-8 here at home this season.
Teddy Covers
Phillies @ Mets
PICK: Over 9
The Mets and the Phillies are both for the MLB lead in Overs, each team cashing 29 Overs so far this season. Repeated bullpen meltdowns and a reasonably hot lineup have helped New York go 15-5-1 to the Over in their last 21 games. That includes a 6-1-1 mark to the Over in their last eight at Citi Field; a park with a long term ‘pitcher friendly’ reputation – the type of reputation that gives us a surprisingly low total to work with tonight.
The Phillies, too, are flying Over the total on a nightly basis. They’ve pounded out 30 runs in their last five games (4-1 to the Over), including last night’s eight run outburst here in New York, enough to cash the Over in that game all by themselves. Even the series history is all about Overs: 6-1 to the Over in the seven previous games between these two teams this year; 14-3-1 to the Over in 18 meetings against one another last year.
Neither starter is reliable this evening, and both bullpens are disaster areas, ranked #29 and #30 in the majors in ERA with 19 combined losses and 16 combined blown saves between them. Philadelphia’s Joe Blanton has been lit up for 19 hits and 14 runs in just 8.2 innings of work in his last two outings; in miserable current form. In three starts against the Mets in the last two years. Blanton has been hammered for eleven earned runs in just 13 innings of work, without a single quality start to show for his efforts.
Meanwhile, Mets rookie Jeremy Hefner allowed nine hits and six earned runs in just 3.2 innings of his MLB starting debut last week, against the ultra-light hitting Padres; not exactly the type of starting debut that bodes well for his confidence level. On a warm night in Queens with the wind blowing out to center, look for another high scoring affair – just like last night. Take the Over.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Texas/ Seattle Under 10: This has been a low scoring series of late and not just the games played in Seattle, but also the games played here. These teams have played 8 times this year, with the last 7 games putting up no more than 8 runs in a game. The last 4 games played here have put up just 5.5 rpg. Scott Feldman has pitched just 2 games at home this year and he has a solid 1.80 ERA with just 7 rpg being scored in the 2 games. Scott has a 2.97 ERA in his last 5 home starts vs Seattle, with just 1 of those games putting more than 10 runs on the board. Jason Vargas has pitched well this year with a 3.39 ERA, including a 3.34 ERA in his last 6 starts, with those last 6 starts putting up just 6.7 rpg Jason does have a 4.60 ERA in his last 10 starts, vs the Rangers, but only one of those last 10 starts have seen more than 9 runs scored in a game. Texas should have Hamilton back for this one and their offense is better with him in the line up, but he is just 3 for 20 with 0 HR's in his career vs Vargas. Texas had a good home series vs the Blue Jays, but they have averaged just 3 rpg in their last 4 home games with Seattle and their home games overall this year have averaged just 9.3 rpg, after putting up 12+ rpg last year. Seattle averages just 3.9 rpg and the Ranger pen is rock solid, so don't expect a lot of late runs from them if Feldman gets into trouble. Texas home games have gone 13-9 UNDer this year and I see that trend continuing here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis/ Atlanta Over 8.5: Pitching was supposed to carry this Braves team this year, but that has not been the case, especially late as they have allowed 5.8 rpg during their current 8 game losing streak, including allowing 7.5 rpg during their current home stand. Before St Louis put 8 runs on them last night they allowed offensively challenged Washington to put 22 runs on them in their 3 game series. This is a struggling staff and for them it's not good going up against a St Louis offense that comes in hitting .314 and scoring 5.6 rpg in their last 5 games. With all the Injuries this team has it just shows how deep offensively they are to still be hitting and scoring that well. Tonight they take a crack at Randall Delgado, who has a 4.53 ERA on the year and has allowed 4 ER in each of his last 2 starts. Randall has averaged just 6 inning per start at home this year and that means he should be turning the ball over pretty early to an Atlanta pen that has a 5.05 ERA at home. Jake Westbrook had a vey nice start to the year, but has struggled of late, with a 7.20 ERA in his last 3 starts. He does have a 1.33 ERA in 4 road starts, but hasn't gone more than 7 innings in his road starts and behind him is a St Louis Pen that has an ERA of 4.94 on the road. The Braves have struggled to score of late, but they still average 5 rpg at home and they should be good for at least 4 runs here, with the Cards put up no less than 5 of their own. This game should reach DD.
Pittsburgh/ Cincinnati Under 8: I have tried a few times this year to play an OVER in a Pitt home game and have lost every time, LOL. I hope that now that im going with an UNDER here the reverse doesn't happen. That would suck. When Pitt has faced a righty at home the UNDER has gone 12-2-1 in those games. Overall Pittsburgh home games have gone 18-5-1 UNDER with an average of just 5.5 rpg being scored (Lowest in the league). Pittsburgh has hit just .213 and has scored just 2.8 rpg at home this year and it won't get much easier for them tonight as they face Homer Bailey. Current Pirate members have hit just .247 with 1 HR in 89 AB's vs Homer, while he has a posted a skinny 1.64 ERA in his last 5 starts vs Pittsburgh. On the other side we have a Cincinnati team that has averaged just 3.5 rpg on the road this Year. Current Reds members have hit .269 with 4 HR's in 145 AB's off off Charlie Morton, but he still has a very nice 1.80 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them. Homer has a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 starts overall, while Charlie has a 2.90 ERA at home, with just 5.4 rpg being scored in his home starts. THis one will struggle to hit 6 runs.
TORONTO -126 over Baltimore: The Orioles have been road warriors this year, going 15-7 away from home, but let's look to back to the beginning of the year as this team was pick for last in the division by many, and I feel they will start playing that way. The Orioles have now lost 3 in a row and 6 of their last 8 and playing in Toronto, vs Romero won't make it easier for them tonight. Ricky Romero comes in a 5-1 on the year, with a 3.86 ERA, while at home he is 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA. Last year Ricky faced the Orioles twice here and allowed just 1 ER in 16.1 innings of work, while winning both starts. Jake Arrieta faced the Jays twice here last as well and was 1-1 in the 2 starts, but with a 5.25 ERA in the two starts. This year Jake has struggled, going 1-5 with a 5.98 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has done well on the road with a 1-1 mark and a 2.77 ERA, but the Ja6ys offense has been hot of late and should get to him tonight. The Orioles are just not playing well enough right now to think they can take the Jays tonight.
Philadelphia -114 over NY METS: Let's go with the hot Phils here. Philadelphia comes in having won 5 of their last 6 games and the offense is really starting to heat up as they have hit .277 and have scored 5.8 rpg in their last 5 games. Joe Blanton stared off well this year but has struggled in his last 2 starts. Joe does have a 5.00 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Mets, but with a 1-0 record and the Phils have gone 3-2 in those starts. Jeremy Hefner does have 1 career start and it was this year vs the Padres. in that game he allowed 6 ER in just 3.2 innings of work, right here at Citi Field. The Mets have been playing much better this year so far, but the Phills look like they have turned the corner and are ready to get back in to the race. Philly is the better team here and has the better starter on the mound and should take this one in a high scoring game.
Black Widow
San Francisco Giants -119
I'm backing the San Francisco Giants today at home with a big edge on the mound in Ryan Vogelsong over Joe Saunders. Vogelsong pitched very well last season, and it's been more of the same in 2012. The right-hander is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with a 1.32 ERA in four home starts. Saunders has been average this year for the Diamondbacks, but he's really struggled of late. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts. Saunders is winless in five lifetime starts versus San Francisco, going 0-4 with a 5.52 ERA. He allowed 6 earned runs and 11 base runners over 5 innings in a 3-7 loss to the Giants on May 13th in his most recent start against them. Vogelsong is 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA in four lifetime starts versus Arizona. Take the Giants on the Money Line.