SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlanta (4-3 SU and ATS) at Orlando (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
The defending Eastern Conference champion Magic continue their run for back-to-back conference titles when they open their best-of-7 semifinal series against the rival Hawks inside Amway Arena.
The Magic have been idle since wrapping up a 4-0 sweep (3-1 ATS) of the Bobcats on April 26, waiting for the Hawks to complete their seven-game series against the Bucks. Atlanta completed its rally from a 3-2 series deficit by blowing out Milwaukee in Sunday’s decisive Game 7, winning 95-74 and easily cashing as an 8½-point favorite. They held the Bucks to 32.6 percent shooting and got 22 points from Sixth-Man-of-the-Year Jamal Crawford, while All-Star Al Horford chipped in 16 points and 15 rebounds.
Orlando took three of four SU and ATS in the season series with the Hawks, and the Magic have won and covered in six of the last seven meetings dating to January 2009. Additionally, Orlando has won and cashed in four of five at home against the Hawks, including two January blowouts: 104-86 as a 5½-point favorite and 113-81 as a 3½-point chalk.
Atlanta is 20-24 SU (24-20 ATS) on the highway this season (1-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs), averaging 98.4 ppg on 46 percent shooting, while allowing 97.9 ppg (46.4 percent shooting). Orlando won its two first-round home games against Charlotte (1-1 ATS) to improve to 36-7 at home (25-17-1 ATS). The Magic have won nine straight (6-2-1 ATS) and 15 of their last 16 (11-4-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.
The Hawks, who were swept out of the Eastern Conference semifinals a season ago by the Cavaliers (0-3-1 ATS), are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six as a playoff ‘dog, but they’re also on ATS surges of 7-3 overall, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 11-4 against winning teams, 22-8-1 as an underdog of five to 10 ½ points and 7-3 against the Eastern Conference. The Magic are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 19-7-1 overall, 5-1-1 at home (all as a chalk), 21-6-1 as a favorite, 8-1 after a straight-up win and 21-6 against Eastern Conference teams.
Atlanta has topped the total in four of five on the road, 16 of 21 after a straight-up win and nine of 11 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but it is on “under” runs of 4-1 after just one day off, 7-2 as a playoff underdog, 7-3 on Tuesday and 19-7 as a ‘dog of five to 10 ½ points. Orlando is on “over” runs of 4-1-1 at home and 4-1-1 after three or more days off, but is also on “under” streaks of 6-0-1 on Tuesday, 4-0 in conference semifinal games, 4-1-1 as a playoff favorite, 29-14-2 as a favorite overall and 11-5-1 against Southeast Division rivals.
In this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in five straight meetings, including all four this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Utah (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Lakers look to take a 2-0 lead over the fifth-seeded Jazz when the two square off for Game 2 of their best-of-7 Western Conference semifinal series inside the Staples Center.
Los Angeles surrendered a big fourth-quarter lead in Game 1 on Sunday only to rally back in the final four minutes and score a 104-99 victory, falling just short as a seven-point chalk. Kobe Bryant led the way with 31 points and Pau Gasol added 25 points and 12 rebounds as the hot-shooting Lakers shot 53.2 percent from the floor and outrebounded the Jazz 43-28.
L.A. has now won three straight playoff contests (2-1 ATS), and it is 4-0 at home in the playoffs (3-1 ATS). Meanwhile, Utah fell to 1-3 SU and ATS on the highway in the postseason.
The Jazz and Lakers met in the first round of the postseason last year with Los Angeles prevailing in five games (2-3 ATS) en route to the NBA title. Additionally, the Lakers won a six-game second-round playoff series from Utah two years ago. This year, L.A. took three of the four regular-season meetings (SU and ATS), including two easy wins and covers in Hollywood, capped by a 106-92 victory on April 2 as a 4½-point favorite.
Los Angeles is on a 19-6 roll against the Jazz overall (15-9-1 ATS) and it has won 15 consecutive meetings at the Staples Center (11-4 ATS). Also, despite Utah’s spread-cover in Game 1, the home team has cashed in 18 of the last 28 head-to-head clashes.
Utah is 22-23 (25-18-1 ATS) on the road this season and just 5-7 (6-6 ATS) in its last 12 on the highway. Los Angeles has gone 38-7 inside Staples Center, but just 18-25-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by more than eight ppg (103.5-94.8).
The Jazz are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as road ‘dogs, 4-8 ATS in their last 12 on the road against teams with winning home records and 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 as ‘dogs of five to 10½ points, but they are on positive pointspread surges of 36-16-3 overall (5-1 last six) and 5-0 with just one day off. The Lakers are 11-6-1 ATS in their last 18 conference semifinal games, but otherwise they carry several negative pointspread trends, including 3-7 overall (all against the Western Conference), 8-18-1 as a favorite, 4-11-1 at home (all as a favorite), 7-18-2 after a day off, 5-15-1 after a straight-up win, 5-11 on Tuesday
Utah is 5-1-1 “under” in its last six against Pacific Division foes, but from there it is on “over” streaks of 6-1 overall (4-0 last four), 5-1 on the road (4-0 last four), 40-19-1 as an underdog, 36-16-1 as a road ‘dog, 9-3 as a playoff pup, 7-3 on Tuesday and 5-1 after one day off. On the flip side, it’s been all “unders” for Los Angeles lately, including 12-5 at home (all as a chalk), 20-8 as a favorite, 24-10 against Northwest Division teams, 7-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in conference semifinal games. However, the Lakers have topped the total in four of their past five overall in these playoffs.
Finally, these teams had stayed under the total in seven consecutive meetings – including the final three playoff contests last year – before Game 1 crept past the total. So the over has now been the play in 13 of the last 18 clashes in California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (18-8) at Philadelphia (14-11)
Adam Wainwright (4-1, 2.13 ERA) goes after his fifth win on the young season when he leads the streaking Cardinals against Cole Hamels (2-2, 5.28) and the Phillies as this four-game series continues at Citizens Bank Park.
The Cardinals got another strong pitching performance from rookie Jaime Garcia and stretched their winning streak to three in a row with a 6-3 victory in Monday’s series opener. Tony LaRussa’s squad, which has the best record in the National League, has won eight of nine overall and is on additional solid runs of 7-1 as a favorite and 6-0 versus N.L. East foes. However, St. Louis has dropped six of its last eight against left-handed starters and five straight on the highway against lefties.
Philadelphia has now still dropped nine of its last 15 contests since starting the season 8-2, going 2-4 at home during this stretch. The Phillies remain on positive runs of 35-18 against the N.L. Central, 11-5 versus right-handed starters and 7-1 at home against righties.
These teams faced off just five times last year, with the Phillies winning four of the five contests, and going back to 2008, Philadelphia has won eight of the last 11 series clashes, going 4-2 at home. In last year’s four wins over St. Louis, the Phillies tallied 39 runs.
Wainwright is coming off his 11th consecutive quality start – at least six innings pitched while allowing three earned runs or fewer – as he held the Braves to three runs in six innings en route to Thursday’s 10-4 home victory. The outing actually ended a string of five straight starts in which Wainwright pitched at least seven innings and gave up two earned runs or fewer. Going back to the middle of June, the right-hander has had 24 quality starts in his last 25 trips to the mound, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 22 of those 25 contests.
With Wainwright starting, the Redbirds are on impressive upticks of 37-15 overall, 20-6 on the road, 15-5 against the N.L. East, 25-6 versus winning teams and 5-1 on Tuesday. He’s made two road starts this year, going 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA, as he gave up two runs in each of contest (6-3 win at Cincinnati; 2-0 loss at San Francisco).
Wainwright’s worst start of 2009 came in a home game against the Phillies, as he got torched for seven runs (all earned) on nine hits and two walks in six innings, losing 10-7. However, in three starts against Philly prior to that – all in 2007 – he gave up a total of three runs and 17 hits in 21 innings (1.29 ERA), and the Cardinals won all three games by a combined margin of 20-6. That includes a 10-2 win in Wainwright’s only previous start at Citizens Bank Park (he pitched seven shutout innings).
Hamels’ struggles continued at San Francisco on Wednesday as he gave up four runs on nine hits and four walks in six innings. Though Hamels did strikeout 10, he left trailing 4-1, but the Phillies rallied with two outs in the ninth inning and prevailed 7-6 in 11 innings. Still, over his past two starts, Hamels has allowed 10 runs (all earned) in 12 innings, and unlike Wainwright, the lefty has just one quality outing in his last 12 starts (playoffs included).
Philadelphia has won 21 of Hamels’ last 29 starts against N.L. Central competition and four of his last five Tuesday outings, but it has dropped five of his last seven starts at Citizens Bank. This year at home, Hamels is 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA in two games. Against the Cardinals, he’s 2-2 with a 4.22 ERA in six career starts.
St. Louis brings a slew of “under” trends into this contest, including 8-2-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 13-3-1 versus winning teams, 25-10-2 against left-handed starters and 7-3-1 when Wainwright starts on the highway. On the flip side, the Cardinals have topped the total in four straight Tuesday contests, and it’s been all “overs” for Philadelphia, including 36-17-2 overall, 16-6-2 at home, 8-3 against N.L. Central teams, 7-3 as an underdog, 7-1-1 with Hamels starting and 3-1-1 with Hamels toiling at home.
Finally, the over is 13-7-2 in the last 22 Phillies-Cardinals clashes at Citizens Bank Park. Also, three of Wainwright’s four career starts against Philadelphia and three of Hamels’ last four outings against St. Louis have gone over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (16-11) at Minnesota (17-9)
The Tigers’ Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 3.75) tries to build off a strong start in his last outing when he toes the rubber at Target Field, while the Twins are set to counter with Nick Blackburn (1-1, 6.85).
Michael Cuddyer hit a three-run home run to highlight a four-run first inning as Minnesota cruised past Detroit 10-3 on Monday. The Twins have seven of 10 in their new ballpark, and they’re on additional impressive runs of 36-16 overall, 17-5 at home (including the Metrodome), 28-11 against A.L. Central foes, 23-6 as a favorite, 13-5 versus southpaws, 39-15 at home against lefties and 23-6 on Tuesday.
The Tigers had a season-high five-game winning streak halted Monday, but they’re still 9-4 in their last 13 contests (4-3 on the road). Additionally, they’re on stretches of 7-4 against division rivals, 4-1 versus right-handed starters and 4-2 as an underdog, but Detroit has also now lost 30 of 44 as a road ‘dog.
These division rivals met last week in Motown, with the Twins winning the opener 2-0 and Detroit coming back to score victories of 11-6 and 3-0, so this year’s season series is now even. Last year, Minnesota took 11 of the final 17 meetings with the Tigers, including a 6-5, 12-inning home victory in a one-game playoff to determine the division champ. Also, Monday’s contest extended Detroit’s misery in Minneapolis, as the Tigers are now 28-63 in their last 91 games in Minnesota.
Ten days after a tough-luck 2-0 loss at the Angels in which he gave up both runs in six innings, Willis was even better on Thursday against these Twins. He scattered four hits and two walks while striking out six in a six scoreless innings, leading Detroit to a 3-0 home win. Willis has pitched at least six innings and surrendered a total of four runs in three of his four starts in 2010.
Detroit has won four straight games with Willis starting against A.L. Central rivals, but it has also lost seven of his last nine as a visitor. However, his first two road performances of this season were identically solid: six innings pitched and two runs allowed in each contest. Also, prior to Thursday, Willis’ only previous career start against the Twins came last May in the Metrodome, and he gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings, getting a no-decision in the Tigers’ 14-10 loss.
Blackburn hasn’t been on the mound since April 24 when he allowed six runs (five earned) in 4 1/3 innings at Kansas City. A week earlier, the Royals roughed him up at Target Field, scoring five runs in five innings. Despite those two poor performances, though, the Twins found a way to win both games by scores of 9-7 and 6-5. Minnesota is 7-2 in Blackburn’s last nine trips to the hill, 4-1 in his last five at home and 6-1 in his last seven against the A.L. Central.
Blackburn dominated the Tigers in his final two starts against them in 2009, giving up just three runs (two earned) in 16 innings (1.13 ERA), and Minnesota won both contests 6-2 (home) and 3-2 (road). Still, Blackburn is just 2-3 with a 3.95 ERA in seven lifetime appearances (six starts) against Detroit.
The Tigers are on “over” streaks of 5-0-1 on the road, 5-1-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 as a road pup, 6-2 versus A.L. Central competition and 4-1 on Tuesday. Also, the over is 5-1-1 in Willis’ last seven starts against divisional foes, but seven of his last 10 starts overall have stayed low. The Twins carry “under” trends of 7-2 versus southpaw starters, 8-2-1 at home against lefties, 4-1 when Blackburn starts on Tuesday and 17-6-1 when Blackburn pitches on grass. Conversely, Blackburn’s last four home starts have jumped over the total, as have his last four against the A.L. Central.
Finally, though Monday’s contest soared over the posted total, the under was 4-1-1 in the last six Metrodome meetings between these two in 2009, and the under has cashed in each of Blackburn’s last five starts versus Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
DUNKEL INDEX
Atlanta at Orlando
The Magic look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games versus Atlanta. Orlando is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-8 1/2)
Game 709-710: Atlanta at Orlando (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.679; Orlando 132.608
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 15; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-8 1/2); Under
Game 711-712: Utah at LA Lakers (10:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 117.442; LA Lakers 126.375
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9; 200
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-5 1/2); Over
MLB
Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
The Royals look to build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 games against the White Sox when Gavin Floyd starts. Kansas City is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155)
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 14.785; Washington (Hernandez) 15.835
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Over
Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 14.999; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.633
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); Over
Game 955-956: St. Louis at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.738; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.411
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115); Under
Game 957-958: NY Mets at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Maine) 15.996; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.047
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under
Game 959-960: San Francisco at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.688; Florida (Sanchez) 14.960
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-180); Under
Game 961-962: Arizona at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 14.011; Houston (Oswalt) 13.381
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Under
Game 963-964: Colorado at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Smith) 15.197; San Diego (LeBlanc) 16.539
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-145); Over
Game 965-966: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 13.712; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.658
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-210); Over
Game 967-968: Toronto at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.798; Cleveland (Westbrook) 14.114
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-135); Under
Game 969-970: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 14.483; NY Yankees (Burnett) 17.474
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 3; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-250); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-250); Over
Game 971-972: LA Angels at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.195; Boston (Lester) 14.772
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+165); Over
Game 973-974: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Willis) 17.075; Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.900
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+120); Under
Game 975-976: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 16.297; White Sox (Floyd) 15.638
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155); Under
Game 977-978: Texas at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 14.642; Oakland (Mazzaro) 15.070
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 979-980: Tampa Bay at Seattle (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.799; Seattle (Vargas) 15.587
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Under
NHL
Pittsburgh at Montreal
The Penguins look to bounce back from their loss in Game 2 and build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 road games. Pittsburgh is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-165)
Game 67-68: Pittsburgh at Montreal (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.198; Montreal 11.798
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-165); Under
Game 69-70: San Jose at Detroit (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.729; Detroit 13.403
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-165); Under
Marc Lawrence
St Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals send Adam Wainwright to the mound in Philadelphia Tuesday night knowing he has cashed in 14 of his last 20 road starts. He's also 3-1 in his career team starts in this series, including 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in this park. With Cole Hamels in rocky current form, look for Wainwright and the Redbirds to improve on those numbers here tonight.
Frank Jordan
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -9
Orlando finished six games better that Atlanta in the standing in the regular season as well as winning three of four during the year against Atlanta. Atlanta did win the last meeting these two teams played by two points at home late in the year. Orlando, despite foul trouble to Howard, was still able to sweep through Charlotte. Atlanta was taken to 7 games by Milwaukee and had to win games 6 and 7 to advance against their divisional rivals. Look for Howard to stay disciplined on defense and dominate on offense as they Magic win at home in game one. Play Orlando
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -6
Deron Williams of the Jazz was banged up in the final seconds of their series clincher in game 6 over Denver. That injury set him to be a game time decision. The decision made was to have him play and it was a good one as he had a team high 24 points and a game high 8 assists. However, that wasn't enough to overcome Kobe's game high 31 points and 25 points from Gasol. Look for Deron Williams to have another good game and attempt to get his teammates shooting well, but once again fall short as the high number of minutes on the stars are really starting to mount as the Lakers are just too deep. Play LA Lakers
Rob Vinciletti
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Cleveland fits a negative system here tonight. What we want to do is plays against certain home dogs off a home favored loss, if they had 2 or less hits and their opponent scored 5 or more runs on the road. Toronto has lefty Romero on the mound tonight. He has a fine 1.93 road era and takes On J.Westbrook tonight. Westbrook has a 5.53 era and faces a Toronto team that is 10-4 as a road favorite in this range and has averaged nearly 6 runs per game over the past 7 games. The Indians have struggled vs Left handed pitchers scoring 3.4 runs per game. Look for the Blue Jays to take game two.
Jim Feist
Royals vs. White Sox
Play: Over 9
A pair of struggling pitchers in the AL go here. The Kansas City pitching staff always helps fatten up batting averages (other than Greinke) and the Royals trot out young Luke Hochevar and his 6.11 ERA. He has struggled with control and has allowed 36 hits in 28 innings. Chicago's offense has been getting better, on a 9-2 run over the total. Three of those overs were the last three starts made by Gavin Floyd, who has a 6.49 ERA with opponents hitting .294 off him. Oddly, he's 1-5 all time with a 4.84 against the Royals! Look for an offensive show, play the Royals/White Sox Over the total.
Red Dog Sports
San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings
Play Detroit -165
Look for the Detroit Red Wings to win this game at home and cut the series lead down to 2-1. Detroit led 3-2 in the 3rd period on Sunday night but could not contain the Sharks. Look for Detroit to win 3-2 at home on Tuesday night!
EZWINNERS
San Francisco Giants -169
The two-time reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum has dominated so far this year for the Giants posting a 1.27 ERA with 43 strikeouts in five starts. The Marlins starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez has been inconsistent this season. Sanchez has allowed only three earned runs in his last two starts but was hammered for nine earned runs in his first two starts of the season and currently has an ERA of 4.32 for the year. One of the main problems for Sanchez is that he cannot go deep into games. When Sanchez hits the 70 to 80 pitch mark or the 5th inning is when the wheels fall off. That is not a good thing when facing Tim Lincecum who will most likely pitch deep into this game. In one start against Florida last season, Lincecum gave up two runs and struck out four batter over 7 1/3 innings while picking up the win and I expect a dominating performance by him in this game. Florida has been horrible in the first game of a series as they have lost 12 opening games in their last 15 series. Play on San Francisco.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
Not a bad price on Shields and the Rays tonight when they take on Vargas and the Mariners in Seattle. Shields has already won four of his five team starts this season, and has a 3.37 ERA on the year. That includes two straight starts where he went seven innings, allowing a combined 3 ER’s. And Tampa Bay won those games by a combined 15 runs. Seattle has lost three in a row, scoring a combined 4 runs total in those three games. Lay the small number.
Play on: Tampa Bay Rays
MATT FARGO
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Detroit Tigers
Detroit had its five-game winning streak snapped last night in Minnesota but I think this is a very good spot to bounce back. The Twins have been extremely solid at home in their new Target Field, going 7-3 but tonight does not have them in a great situation. Dontrelle Willis gets the ball for the Tigers and he has gotten off to a great start. Through four starts, he has a 3.75 ERA with Detroit going 3-1 in those games. His WHIP of 1.54 is not very good but that was mainly due to the first two games where he posted a 1.91 WHIP. Over the last two starts, the ratio is a terrific 1.00. His last outing came against the Twins and he shut them out for six innings and he will use that confidence going forward. Minnesota was without both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in that first game so that no doubt helped but Mauer is listed as doubtful again tonight. While his start has been great, the start for Nick Blackburn has been anything but. He has a 6.85 ERA and 1.73 WHIP through four starts and he has allowed five runs in each of his last three outings. He missed his last start due to an undisclosed family issue and left the team for a few days so how he comes back remains in question. The Tigers fall into a solid partial contrarian situation as well. Play on teams after two straight games where they committed no errors going up against an opponent after three straight games where they had 12 or more hits. This situation is 48-22 (68.6 percent) over the last five seasons. The Twins are just 13-28 in their last 41 games against teams from the American League with an on base percentage of .345 or better while Detroit is 12-4 this season when its moneyline is between +125 and -125. 3* Detroit Tigers
INSIDER ANGLES
Now we are normally not fans of laying this much vigorish on a total, but Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in the National League, and with the red-hot Wade LeBlanc going for the San Diego Padres, we expect runs to be at a premium when they host the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday.
LeBlanc has a microscopic 0.52 ERA in three starts for the Padres, tossing 12.1 scoreless innings in his last two starts after allowing just one run in five innings in his seasonal debut. He has also shown great command thus far, posting 16 strikeouts against just four walks. Perhaps most impressive is the fact that he allowed only three hits in six scoreless innings in a hitter’s park at Cincinnati, so he should continue his success at home in this spacious stadium.
Granted, Greg Smith has struggled for the most part for Colorado, but most of those struggles have come in the altitude of home. The last time Smith pitched on the road, he allowed only two runs and five hits in 5.1 innings at Atlanta, and like most pitchers he too should improve while pitching in this park.
The southpaw also has the advantage of pitching against a San Diego lineup that has never faced him before, which should give Smith the advantage the first time through the lineup. If he should be in need of relief, the Colorado bullpen has been a strong suit for the team this season, posting a nice 2.44 ERA.
In fact, the San Diego bullpen also has a fine 2.62 ERA, so late tack-on runs should be kept to a minimum here, which is crucial for low totals like this one. Thus, do not look for these clubs to exceed seven total runs scored.
Pick: Rockies / Padres Under 7.5
OffshoreInsiders
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic (-9)
The Hawks were surprisingly tested in the first round, needing seven games to put away the scrappy Milwaukee Bucks. Atlanta came through when it mattered, though, winning back-to-back games by an average of 17.5 points after losing three straight. The Hawks covered both games, improving their record to 7-3 in their past 10 games on NBA odds. Hitting the road against Orlando could pose some problems, as Atlanta is just 5-5 against the spread in its last 10 games away from home.
Orlando is nice and rested after sweeping Charlotte. The Magic are enjoying a very impressive tear, winning each of their past 10 games and covering nine of them at the sportsbook. Orlando has also won nine consecutive games at home, going 6-2-1 against the spread in that span.
The Magic are rested, but they’ll also probably show a little rust. After being scared in the first round, the Hawks will come out gunning in this one.
Pick: Atlanta
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5)
The Lakers took Game 1 of the series 104-99. While it was the team’s third straight win, it was yet another failure for sports betting fans, as Los Angeles failed to cover; LA is 2-7-1 in its last 10 games on NBA odds. Similar trends stand out at the Staples Center—while the Lakers are 8-2 in their last 10 home games (including five straight wins) they’re just 3-7 against the spread in the same span.
The Jazz survived their first-round series with Denver despite a wave of injuries, but they might not be so lucky this time around. Utah did cover in Game 1, though, and the team is a rock-solid 5-2 in its last seven games against the spread. Most of Utah’s problems have come on the road, where the team is 5-5 on NBA betting odds in its last 10 games.
The Lakers are finally putting things together. It was only a matter of time before Kobe Bryant woke up.
Pick: Lakers
Rocketman
Atlanta @ Washington
Play: Washington -105
Atlanta is 1-5 against division opponents this year. Atlanta is 3-10 on the road this season. Washington is 8-3 after a loss this year. Atlanta is scoring only 3.2 runs per game on the road this year. Atlanta bullpen has a 5.62 ERA on the road this year. Washington bullpen has a 3.17 ERA at home this year. Kenshin Kawakami is 0-4 with a 5.49 ERA overall this year, 0-3 with a 4.96 ERA on the road and 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA his last 3 starts. Livian Hernandez is 3-1 with a 0.87 ERA overall this year, 1-1 with a 1.06 ERA at home and 2-1 with a 1.12 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Washington tonight!
Dan Bebe
CIN (-130) vs NYM
I like how the Reds are playing over the last week and change, and I think the Mets are slipping into a small slump after that raucous homestand. Don't get me wrong, the Mets are always going to be in games because of strong pitching, but the bats have gone a little quiet since they hit the road, and the team is in classic "rubber band" mode off the big winning streak -- they're trying to get back to their winning ways, but pressing.
Tonight, John Maine gets the starting nod, who had a nice start at home against the Dodgers, but has historically struggled mightily with Cincinnati. He's 0-3 against the Reds, and he hasn't really "fooled" anyone on the Reds besides Scott Rolen. Jay Bruce has gone yard against him, and Brandon Phillips, who has seen Maine the most, is batting .500 off the righthander.
On the flip side, Bronson Arroyo has gotten off to a bit of a rocky start this year, but has pitched very well against the Mets in his career. Bronson is 6-2 against New York, and has seen quite a bit of most of the Mets regulars. Of those guys, Jason Bay is the only position player with a career batting average over .300 against Bronson, and there's definitely a smattering of sub-.200 averages mixed in the bag.
I know it's a little chalk to be laying on the lowly Reds, but they played strong baseball on their road trip, and based on last night's extra-inning solid win, I think they've brought that confidence home.
Play on Cincy.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON +1.03 over Atlanta
Not sure what Livan Hernandez is eating these days but whatever it is, it’s working. The guy has pitched into the seventh inning in all four starts and has allowed an incredible three runs in 31 frames. His numbers are actually sick and that includes a BAA of .176 and an ERA of 0.87. Of course all that could implode at any time but perhaps he found something he didn’t have before. Or maybe not. Hernandez’s fortunes will turn against him and when they do, it could last for a while. He only has 10 k’s in 31 frames and has an unsustainable strand rate of 96%. Thing is, the Braves are a very beatable team and Hernandez’s fortunes could last one more game for sure. The Braves swept the Astros but so what. The Astros are just a pathetic team and that’s an understatement. Prior to that the Braves had dropped nine in a row. In addition, Kenshin Kawakami is the Braves worst starter and it’s not close. Kawakami is 0-4 with an ERA of 5.48. In his last game against the Cards covering 4.1 innings he allowed five runs (four earned) on five hits and four walks. He hit three batters and had two wild pitches. He’s also walked eight batters while striking out just 10 and even at his best he’s no better than Livan Hernandez. So, we get the home squad, the way hotter pitcher, a tag and we also get the better offense and we get all this because the Nats still remain the most undervalued team in baseball. Play: Washington +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +1.28 over HOUSTON
Did you know that Roy Oswalt was drafted in the 23rd round and was the 684th pick that year? That was the last good thing the Astros did so anytime this host is favored, whether Oswalt is going or not, the dog is the play. In order to win you have to score and the Astros keep losing and they keep coming up lame at the plate. Last night they had a chance to blow the game wide open in the first two innings against an erratic looking first-time starter named Cesar Valdez. They left five men on in the first two frames and scored just one time. Subsequently they lost 9-1 for its seventh loss in a row. A month into the season and they’re out of it already. Thus far, they’ve drawn 47 walks. The next closest team has drawn 72. They’ve scored a total of 73 runs, which is an astonishing 80 runs less than the D-Backs. Ian Kennedy has been very sharp in his last two games against the Cubbies and Phillies. He picked up the victory against Chicago and pitched much better than the box score suggests. An eighth-inning grand slam from Kosuke Fukudome was definitely aided by the winds at Wrigley Field and Kennedy may have been out of the game after the seventh if the D-Backs weren't carrying a 13-1 lead at that time. He’s gone eight full in his last two games and that includes a four-hit gem against Philly. Kennedy has 27 k’s in 30 frames while walking just eight and the Astros have never seen a pitch they didn’t like. They swing - and usually miss - at everything. The D-Backs score two or more here and they’re very likely to win because the Astros scoring three is like asking Floyd Mayweather to keep his mouth shut. Play: Arizona +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto –1½ +1.29 over CLEVELAND
The Jays bats are warming up big time and you can see Adam Lind and Aaron Hill starting to find their groove. These two Sliver-Slugger award winners are dangerous as hell and they’re starting to come around. They Jays are hitting the ball hard and now lead the league in bombs with 41. They Jays have now won four of its last five and in those four wins they’ve scored 30 runs. Ricky Romero is another great, young Blue Jay pitcher. He’s allowed just 21 hits in 36 innings for a BAA of 1.68 and a WHIP of 0.94. Romero has terrific stuff, outstanding command and he’s also a southpaw, which bodes well here against the light hitting Indians. Cleveland has struggled to score, ranking near the bottom of most AL hitting categories and has been dominated by opposing southpaws, with a lowly .210 BA, .286 SLG, and .574 OPS. Jake Westbrook has struggled in his return from 2008 Tommy John-surgery. In three of his five starts he’s struck out two batters or less. He has a BAA of .290, a WHIP of 1.55 and an ERA of 5.53. Guys like Westbrook and Gil Meche of the Royals are perfect examples why smart GM’s do not sign pitchers to big, long term contracts. Meche is making 12M this season and Westbrook is making 11M. Taking home a paycheck like that is more added pressure for Westbrook to bring it. Even in his best days, Westbrook was never that great but those days are long gone. Man, 11 million sure doesn’t buy you what it used to. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
DETROIT -½ +1.11 over San Jose
It’s not that the Sharks have been playing bad because they have not been. However, they’ve had every call go its way and they scored key goals in both games with a 5 on 3 two-man advantage. Now the series switches to Detroit and the Sharks will not get the benefit of those calls. The crowds influence the refs and that’s why the Sharkies are up 2-0. In game two, Detroit took 10 minors (five in the third period alone) while the Sharks took four. The Red Wings scored on three of its first nine shots and every time they had momentum it was nullified by a penalty. This series is far from over and while the Red Wings have to win four of five games to advance, it has to start somewhere. Five on five, there is no way you can make an argument that the Sharks have been the better squad and there’s just no way the Red Wings get the short end of the stick in terms of penalties called for this one. Play: Detroit -½ +1.11 (Risking 2 units).