Bryan Leonard
St Louis at Philadelphia
It's not often we will go against the Phillies at home as an underdog, but this is one of those rare occasions. Cole Hamels is still being priced as if he's an elite pitcher but the numbers just don't show it. In his last seven starts he owns a 6.02 ERA and he hasn't fared well against the Cardinals. His last five games in this series has resulted in a 5.04 ERA and keep in mind that he didn't face St Louis last year in his so called down season. He has just one quality start in 2010 and he simply hasn't lived up to his postseason hype from two years ago.
St Louis is sending Adam Wainwright to the hill looking to extend his early season dominance. In five starts this season he's held every opponent to three earned runs or less. In his last seven starts he owns a 2.42 ERA, and his four career outings against the Phillies have resulted in an ERA of 3.33.
Philadelphia struggled at home last year and that trend has continued this season. They are just 5-5 in this ballpark in 2010 and we look for that mark to worsen here. Only one of these starters deserve being priced as an elite pitcher and that's Wainwright.
PLAY ST LOUIS
Vernon Croy
1* Take Toronto
We are getting very good value here with the Blue Jays tonight who have Ricky Romero on the mound. Romero has pitched solid so far this season with an ERA of just 2.25 over 5 starts. Romero has an ERA of just 1.93 over two road starts this season and the Indians are hitting just .239 as a team against lefty starters this season. The Jays are 4-1 in Romero's last 5 starts when he is favored and they are also 6-1 in their last 7 road games against a right hand starter. The Blue Jays are 14-4 in their last 18 games when favored and the Indians are just 3-11 in their last 14 games as an underdog at home. The Indians are just 2-7 in Westbrooks last 9 home starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and they happen to be just 1-10 in Westbrooks last 11 starts following a quality start in his last outing. The Blue Jays starting pitching has been extremely solid so far this season and their opponents are hitting just .215 against them on the road this season. Take the Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday night.
Nelly
Texas - over Oakland
Scott Feldman has made three strong starts and two poor starts this season but he has pitched well enough to suggest that last year's great statistical season was not a fluke. His two poor starts came against the Yankees and the Tigers, two of the better offensive teams in the league so he has a good chance of success against the slumping A's. Oakland managed to avoid the shutout in last night's loss with two runs in the ninth inning but Oakland has now lost six of the last seven games while scoring a total of 23 runs in that span. Injuries are really piling up with this team as the A's have four regular position players on the DL and two starters and three relievers out of action. Vin Mazzaro has been called up for the A's and the prospect had marginal results in the big leagues last season, going 4-9 with a 5.32 ERA in 17 starts. After a slow start to the season Texas is heating up with wins in six of the last seven games and 53 runs scored in the last ten contests. This looks like a cheap price on a Rangers team that grades as the superior squad and Feldman should be expected to throw well in Oakland.
Tom Freese
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
Colorado is 4-11 their last 15 road games vs. lefty starters and they are 2-6 off a win. Colorado starter Greg Smith has allowed 12 runs in his last 11.1 innings of work. San Diego starter Wade LeBlanc has allowed one run total in his 3 starts this year. The Padres are 16-10 this year. San Diego is 13-4 their last 17 games and they are 22-6 in game two of a series and they are 6-1 vs. NL West teams. PLAY ON SAN DIEGO -
BEN BURNS
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
With a red hot pitcher (Jimenez) on the mound, the Rockies grabbed yesterday's opener. Tonight, however, the Padres have the pitcher who is currently in much better form.
Leblanc enters tonight's game with a 2-0 record (Padres are 3-0) with a truly outstanding 0.52 ERA. The Padres have won his three starts by a combined score of 19-3, including 14-0 in his last two.
Conversely, Smith enters tonight's game with a 1-2 record and a brutal 7.33 ERA. The Rockies are 1-4 in his five starts, including 0-3 his last three. Over those three games, Smith has a 9.53 ERA and 2.471 WHIP!
The Rockies are 1-3 as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range, falling to 20-32 (-5) in that role the past 2+ seasons. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 110-191 (-40.3) their last 300+ in that situation.
Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, the Padres have been very good at home this season. They've been particularly good as home favorites of this size, going 4-0 when playing at home with a line in the -125 to -150 range. They're also 4-1 vs. southpaw starters on the season. Consider laying the wood.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -152
The Cubs have quietly won 3 in a row and 7 of their last 10 and they get a Pittsburgh team that they have absolutely owned tonight. The Pirates enter this contest having lost 10 of their last 13 and they are up against a Chicago ball club that has beaten them in 27 of the last 35 meetings. These Pirates are just 35-79 in their last 114 vs. the National League Central. Maholm has a nice 4-1 career mark against the Cubs, but he also has an ERA of 7.06 in those games. I have a feeling his luck will run out tonight. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 5-1 in Dempster's last 6 starts vs. the Pirates. They are also a perfect 5-0 in Dempster's last 5 series-opening starts. We'll take the Cubbies.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -134
The Mariners have lost 7 of 9 and I'll continue to fade as they continue to struggle at the plate. The Mariners were just swept by Texas. Their pitching was good in that series. In fact, their starters only allowed five runs. However, the M's only hit .180 and scored just 4 runs in this series. That's just not going to get it done against a Rays team averaging 6.9 runs and boasting a MLB-best 9-1 road mark. On top of that, it's hard to think the M's will get off the snide against James Shields, who is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA this season. Seattle is near the bottom of the AL with a .236 batting average and just 86 runs scored. The Mariners have a league-worst nine homers with none in their last six games. I give Shields the edge against their lineup tonight. Vargas has been good for Seattle, but I can't see backing him here when you consider that they are 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Seattle won't have the fire power at the plate to compete tonight. Bet the Rays.
Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals -104
The St. Louis Cardinals are the best team in the National League at 18-8. Their pitching has been simply remarkable over the last two weeks. St. Louis has not allowed more than 4 runs in any of their last 12 games, and they've gone 9-3 during this stretch. With Adam Wainwright on the mound Tuesday, look for the Cardinals to hold the Phillies to 4 or less again tonight en route to victory. Wainwright has picked up right where he left off last season, going 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in 5 starts. Cole Hamels continues his struggles going 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.467 WHIP this season. He has allowed 10 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts, including a 4-7 loss to the Diamondbacks in which he served up 4 home runs.
Wainwright is 25-6 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons, with the Cardinals winning by 2.2 RPG in this situation. Wainwright is 13-2 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons, winning by a massive 4.1 RPG in this spot. Finally, Wainwright is 13-0 against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. You will rarely find Wainwright at this kind of value as just a small favorite, and usually you have to lay -200 juice to back this guy. The value is clearly there tonight backing Wainwright and the Cardinals. Take St. Louis.
WUNDERDOG
Los Angeles Angels at Boston
Pick: Boston -180
The Red Sox certainly took out their frustrating trip to Baltimore (where they were swept by the O's), and hung a 17-spot on the Angels in the opener. This is an offense that was cold and dormant early, but has now plated nearly 7 runs per game over their last nine. The Angels' offense is not as potent as a year ago, already with 11 games scoring 3 or fewer runs. The pitching staff has been getting brutalized as well serving up 47 runs in the last six games, or just about 8 per contest. The Angels have now dropped four straight, and cashing just two of their last 10 as a road dog. The Sox are roaring behind Lester at home as a favorite, with a torrid 31-7 mark.
I'll go with Boston here.
John Ryan
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
3* graded play on Washington as they take on Atlanta set to start at 7:05 EST. This game features Washington Nationals starter Livan Hernandez facing Kenshin Kawakami. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Nationals will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 114-45 for 72% winners since 2004. Play on NL home teams in the month of May with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season. This system is already 4-1 in the first 3 days of May. Atlanta is off to a poor start and most of their losses have come against teams like the Nationals. Atlanta is 0-8 (-9.1 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season; 1-9 (-9.1 Units) against the money line versus excellent defensive catchers allowing <=0.35 SB's/game this season. Kawakami has not done well against gap hitting teams like the Nationals noting they are 3-13 (-11.3 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. Braves are not in a good situation for this game noting they are 11-32 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Take the Nationals.
Black Widow
1* on Texas Rangers -106
The Texas Rangers are red hot right now, going 9-3 in their last 12 games overall. What's more impressive is that Texas is 5-0 in their last 5 road games, and they try to capture their sixth straight road win for the first time in four years. Last year, Scott Feldman was 12-4 with a 3.56 ERA away from Arlington, tying Cy Young contenders CC Sabathia and Adam Wainwright for the most road wins in the majors. He'll try to continue the recent excellent pitching for the Rangers (14-12), who have posted a 1.10 staff ERA while opening their six-game road trip with four straight wins. Oakland has lost 6 of their last 7 games overall, and the A's are 7-23 (-18.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is scoring a mere 2.83 runs/game over their last six contests. Feldman is 9-1 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons. Take Texas on the Money Line.
Mike Rose
Florida Marlins +166
The San Francisco Giants hit the road on their first East Coast swing of the season, and their first stop on this week and a half long trip will have them at Sun Life Stadium to face the Florida Marlins in MLB betting action.
It just doesn't get much better than RHP Tim Lincecum. Inevitably, the right-hander will once again by a Cy Young Award candidate in the National League. He is off to a great start this year, going 4-0 with a 1.27 ERA in five starts.
Lincecum has only faced Florida once in his career, allowing two runs in 7.1 innings, earning the win in the process.
The right-hander may only be 1-2 on the season, but he has pitched significantly better of late than his record and 4.32 ERA indicate.
Sanchez allowed seven hits and two earned runs in 6.1 innings of work against the Padres in his last start and was a tough luck loser in a 4-1 loss. However, that marked his second straight solid outing after allowing five runs in each of his first two trips to the mound in 2010.
The Marlins are 15-7 in Sanchez's L/22 starts at Sun Life Stadium.
There really is no comparison between Lincecum and Sanchez, and that pretty much goes without saying. However, the odds in this game are a tad bit ridiculous. The Marlins should really never be home underdogs of this magnitude even if a prospective 20 game winner is on the hill opposing them.
Take the nice price on the Fish to fry the G-Men tonight!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -130
The Mets have now lost 3 in a row since rattling off 8 straight to fall to 3-7 on the road this season. Why have the Mets struggled so much away from home you ask? They are scoring only 3.7 runs per game while hitting a pathetic .204 as a team. This poor offensive production is not going to get the job done tonight with Maine on the mound. The Mets are going to have to score a lot more than 4 runs to get the "W" here when you consider that Maine is carrying a 7.15 ERA on the season and a 12.37 ERA in his road starts. Maine is also is 0-3 lifetime when starting against Cincy with an ERA of 9.88 and a WHIP of 2.268 while Arroyo is 6-2 lifetime when starting against the Mets with an ERA of 3.37 and a WHIP of 1.020. The Mets are 0-6 in Maine's last 6 road starts while the Reds are 21-9 in Arroyo's last 30 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Reds.
Freddy Wills
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dbacks right now have been hitting the face off the cover of the ball. Including a .312 average 6.41 runs per 9 vs. RHP in their last 5. They do face Oswalt who they have constantly struggled against, but I believe they'll get enough to support Ian Kennedy who should have no trouble with Houston's offense that is hitting .216 and 1.55 runs per 9. Oswalt is backed by an awful team ERA of 8.03 in their last 5. Houston is 17-35 in their last 52 vs. RH starter. Kennedy is off back to back 8 IP outings. The line has continued to drop don't miss out!
Info Plays
3* on Toronto Blue Jays -122
Reasons the Blue Jays win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (TORONTO) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after a win by 4 runs or more. This is a 45-11 ML System hitting 80.4% since 1997 and gaining +29.6 units.
2.) Toronto has the advantage in basically every category tonight except for the bullpen where the Indians are slightly better. Toronto scores 5.6 RPG against righty starters while Cleveland puts up 3.1 RPG against lefty starters. Blue Jays' starter Ricky Romero is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.944 WHIP this season. Indians' starter Jake Westbrook is 0-2 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.554 WHIP this year. Bet the Blue Jays on the road.