Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday May, 8

Rob Vinciletti

Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Texas Rangers

Texas busted Baltimore's win streak last night with a blowout win as the Orioles suffered the effects of their 16 inning win vs Boston just a day earlier. Tonight the Texas win sets them up in a solid 21-7 system that plays on road favorites off a road favored win if they scored 5 or more runs and left 5 or more men on base, vs an opponent off a home dog loss that scored 4 or less runs and left 2 or less men on base. The Pitching looks even with this one between Feliz for Texas and Arrieta for Baltimore. However Arrieta has allowed 9 runs in 10 inning at home vs Texas. Baltimore is also 0-3 as a home dog from +100 to +125. Look for Texas to take another here tonight.

Marc Lawrence

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies and Mets meet in Game Two of a three game series Tuesday evening when Joe Blanton takes the mound for Philadelphia. Blanton toes the slab knowing he is 13-2 in his last 15 home team starts. Blanton is also 5-0 at home in his career team starts against the Mets. With Blanton in great KW form with 21 strikeouts and 3 walks this season, look for more of the same here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

David Chan

Nationals @ Pirates
PICK: Over

I bet value where I see it, and expect the total in the opener of this three game set to sneak above the posted number.

The Nationals' (18-10) Edwin Jackson (1-1, 3.69 ERA) is set to square off against the Pirates' (12-16) AJ Burnett (1-2, 8.04 ERA) on the mound Tuesday night.

Jackson earned a no-decision in his team's 5-4 victory over Arizona last Wednesday; he would give up four runs off eight hits over six-frames of work. He walked two and struck out three.

Burnett is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up a record 12 runs off 12 hits over just 2 2/3's frames of work; St. louis would go on to lose 12-3. It's hard to judge just where Burnett's head is right now:

``I stunk,' Burnett said. ``There is nothing more I can say. I was up all night, I couldn't get anything down. It doesn't matter who you pitch against, if you get your pitches up you're going to get hammered.'

Washington lost Jayson Werth to a broken left wrist in Sunday's 9-3 setback to the Phillies, but will welcome back Ryan Zimmerman in tonight's contest, and also expect ex-Pirate Adam LaRoche to play.

Keep your eyes on the Nats' Bryce Harper as well, who was 2 for 3 with a double in Sunday's loss to Philadelphia; through eight-games Harper is hitting .308.

Both teams are struggling at the plate, but have a good chance to break out of their slumps facing these inconsistent starters.

Anyone that's followed me know's that "recent performance" plays a big part in my handicapping repertoire, and I'd be very surprised if either starter lasted very long in this one; consider a second look at the "over"!

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Tigers @ Mariners
PICK: Over 6.5

The Detroit Tigers are in Seattle on Tuesday, they will send their ace Justin Verlander to the mound to face the Mariners. Verlander has pitched well again this season, however perhaps not quite as dominant as he has been in the past. He has a record of 2-1, with an ERA of 2.38, and he is coming of a no-decision in which he gave up two runs and six hits over eight innings.

Seattle will counter with veteran right-hander Kevin Millwood, who has been pretty average this season. Millwood has pitched well most of the time, but has showed a tendency to give up big innings, before settling down. In his last outing he gave up four runs and five hits in the 2nd inning, all with two outs against the Devil Rays.

The Mariners lineup did manage to put a bunch of runs on the board in both their games over the weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get at least a few against Verlander. The Tigers should be able to pile up a few runs against Millwood, as he hasn't exactly been consistent this season.

With a relatively low total in this game, I will put my money on the over.

Dave Cokin

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

Ian Kennedy is a rock solid starter for the Diamondbacks. But Jake Westbrook has been mostly impressive for the Cardinals and the defending champs are crushing the ball. Right back with the Cardinals as the free play again.

Jim Feist

White Sox vs Indians
Pick: Over

Cleveland is a good offensive park and the Indians offense has been clicking on a recent 4-2 run over the total. The over is 13-4-1 in the Indians last 18 games vs. a left-handed starter and they face struggling lefty John Danks (2-4, 6.51 ERA). In his last three starts he has walked 9 in 18 innings with an 8.20 ERA. The over is 20-9-1 in the White Sox's last 30 vs. the American League Central and 5-1 over the total in Danks' last 6 road starts. And when these teams meet the over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings, as well as 4-1 over the total in Danks' last 5 starts vs. the Indians. Play the White Sox/Indians over the total.

SPORTS WAGERS

New Jersey +125 over PHILADELPHIA

There is no switch in pro sports so don’t expect the disengaged Flyers to suddenly turn it on and wake up. For whatever reason, Philadelphia has stopped playing since they knocked off the Penguins in the first round. The Flyers were extremely fortunate to grab a 2-0 lead in game four and instead of giving them life, they blew it and now a demoralized club becomes even more fragile. The Devils have been better in every period of every game and it’s not by a slim margin either. They’ve dominated and should have swept this series in four games. The close-out game is usually the toughest to win but New Jersey is hungrier and much more determined while the Flyers hearts are just not in this thing. Philadelphia will also be without its best player in Claude Giroux and nothing in its play over the past five games suggest that it will dig down and respond. Play: New Jersey +125 (Risking 2 units).

Atlanta +100 over CHICAGO

Ryan Dempster has to be the most frustrated pitcher in baseball. Here’s a guy that has an ERA of 0.95, a WHIP of 0.81 and a BAA of .144 and has zero wins. In fact, the Cubs are 0-4 in his starts and that’s plenty proof once again of W/L records being the most misleading stat in the game. The real bad news for Dempster is that his numbers are in for a correction because they’re unsustainable. Dempster has a career ERA of 4.37 and over the past four years in which he’s started between 31 and 34 games each season, his ERA was 3.81. Dempster is not an elite pitcher so his elite stats are heading south very soon and it’s likely to begin here. Atlanta is first or second in the NL in many offensive categories including runs scored, team batting average and total bases. Randall Delgado is much better than his current 5.10 ERA suggests. He’s had his fair share of bad luck in the early going with a 64% strand rate and an ERA more than 1½-runs higher than his xERA. Delgado has 26 k’s in 28 frames and is coming off a six-hit, eight inning performance against the Phillies in which he allowed just two runs. Delgado is undervalued, Dempster is overvalued and therefore we’ll gladly step in. Play: Atlanta +100 (Risking 2 units).

David Banks

Chicago Bulls -5

Last season, the Memphis Grizzlies were just the second eighth-seed in history to knock off a top seed in the NBA Playoffs. Now it could happen two straight years as the Philadelphia 76ers (38-32, 36-33-1 ATS) are on the verge of duplicating that feat vs. the Chicago Bulls (51-19, 39-30-1). It appears that Chicago's spirit was torn at tee very same instant that Derrick's Rose's ACL was late in Game 1 as the Sixers have won three straight games since vs. the Rose-less Bulls. Philadelphia tries to complete the upset on the road Tuesday night at the United Center in Chicago, IL at 9:30 ET on NBA TV.

Give the 76ers credit as after taking advantage of a deflated Chicago defense in a 109-92 blowout win in Game 2 here in the Windy City, they were able to win Games 3 and 4 at home despite the Bulls returning to the suffocating defensive style they played all year. The Bulls not having a legitimate go-to guy late in the game made them easier to defend tough and Philadelphia was able to prevail in a couple of low scoring contests, 79-74 and 89-82 respectively. Do not lose site of the fact that while the Bulls led the NBA on scoring defense, the 76ers were solid defensively in their own right finishing third in points against (89.4), third in field goal percentage against (42.7 percent) and sixth in three-point defense (33.4 percent), so the Sixers' surprising 3-1 lead in the series is not completely attributable to Rose's absence. They have held Chicago to 87.8 points per game and 43.5 percent shooting including 35.9 percent from beyond the three-point arc, and while those percentages are slightly above Philadelphia's season averages, they have been plenty good enough to win games. A big knock against the 76ers entering this series was that they were only 6-14 vs. teams in the Sagarin Top 10 during the year, and in truth those critics are probably still skeptical considering that Philadelphia lost the one game that Rose played and that it has become questionable during the 76ers' three wins if the Bulls are legitimately a top-10 team without him.

Chicago's defense was certainly there in the two losses in the City of Brotherly Love as it held Philadelphia to 34.2 percent shooting in Game 3 and 39.2 percent in Game 4, and remember that besides leading the NBA in points allowed during the regular season (88.2), the Bulls also finished second in field goal percentage against (42.1 percent). That defense was the primary reason Chicago was able to still earn the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but it is quickly discovering that while "Defense win Championships", you still need a solid go-to player in the final minutes to pull out close and usually ugly games. The Bulls do not have anyone of that ilk right now and they are paying the price dearly.

The Bulls won two of the three regular season meetings vs. Philadelphia and the second win came with Rose out of the lineup. There is a big difference between the regular season and the playoffs though. Rose had 23 points when he was injured in Game 1, and Chicago is simply not getting it done with Carlos Boozer leading the currently healthy players in playoff scoring with just 14.8 points per game.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Denver/ LA Lakers Under 198.5: The Nuggets are the 2nd highest scoring team in the league (103.5 ppg), but the Lakers have played good defense vs them this year, allowing just 93.6 ppg to he Nuggets in the 8 meetings this year, including allowing them just 93.5 ppg in the 4 meetings these teams have had in this building this year. The Lakers have played great defense at the Staples Center all year long, allowing just 92.9 ppg on 44.8% shooting. The Nuggets have scored 104.5 ppg on the road, buit as you can see above the have had problems in this building this year. The Lakers will not run with Denver and they have been very successful at slowing the pace vs them in the series. The Lakers did put 103 and 104 points in the first 2 here in this series, but Denver will need to play good defense like they did in the two games at home if they hope for a game 6. In the two games in Denver they allowed the Lakers just 92 and 84 points and will need that same defensive intensity here. If the game is close we should see the teams walking the ball up in the 4th and looking for that perfect shot, while if its a Lakers blowout, then we should see them resting players. Either way I just don't see these teams putting up more than the low 190's here.

Atlanta/ Boston Over 173: Google News Play. This is a desperation game for the Hawks and you can bet they will not hold back with anything. They are not a running team but they can push the ball at times and they have scored 98.1 ppg at home on the year. The Celtics have struggled some on defense on the road where they have allowed 93.5 ppg, compared to allowing just 84.2 ppg at home. Atlanta is also a bit healthier with the return of Al Horford, which should lead to more points as well. the Celts are healthy on offense and really looked to push the tempo in their last game and they will do the same here as it was very effective and allowed they to put up 101 points in that game. Atlanta home games have averaged 191.5 ppg on the year, while Boston road games have averaged 184.4 ppg. With 10 of Atlanta's last 12 going over the total, ill look for the trend continue here, as the teams put up 180+.

1 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia/ Chicago Under 171.5: Google News Play. Going to look at the Under in this one. both games played here in this series went over the total, but both those games were with Rose and Noah in the lineup. That will take a lot of points out of Chicago's lineup and they will once again have to look to their defense if they hope for a game 6. The Bulls have played great defense all year at home and should be able to keep a Sixers offense that struggles to score on the road in check here. Philly knows a thing or two about defense and while they play much better defense at home they still should be able to hold an injury riddled Bulls offense in check here. I don't expect a running game in this one and the Bulls know that they need to play great defense if this series is to continue. Look for a grind it out game that will put 169 or less points.

Lenny Del Genio

Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Detroit Tigers

Though they are now 0-4 vs. the Mariners this season, following a 3-2 loss in last night's series opener here at Safeco Field, the Tigers seem like a safe bet tonight given Justin Verlander's 15-0 team start record as a road favorite of -125 or more. The light-hitting Mariners have already been on the wrong end of a perfect game this season. Verlander did not pitch when his team was swept earlier in the year at home by Seattle. Kevin Milwood is 0-3 in five starts this year for the Mariners with a 10.61 ERA at home. Lay the juice.

WUNDERDOG

Miami at Houston
Pick: Under 8

This game looks to be a low-scoring affair. Miami has struggled for offense on the road where they have plated just 39 total runs in their last 14 road games. With 9 of those runs coming in a single game, they have scored just 30 runs in the other 13, or barely over 2 per contest. The Marlins are 38-18-2 in their last 58 to the UNDER, played with Anibel on the mound with the standard four days rest, as well as 20-6 to the UNDER vs. a team with a winning home record. The last 29 meetings in Houston between these clubs have resulted in a 21-8 mark to the UNDER as well. Take the UNDER.

Jack Jones

Toronto Blue Jays -122

The Toronto Blue Jays (16-13) head into this series with Oakland motivated for a win following back-to-back losses. After getting yesterday off, I believe the Blue Jays will come in recharged and ready to go tonight behind Ace Ricky Romero.

Romero has been one of the most underrated starters in the league over the last few seasons. The lefty is 4-0 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in six starts this season, and the Blue Jays are 5-1 in those contests.

Romero has absolutely owned the A's, going 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA and 0.936 WHIP in five career starts against them. Brandon McCarthy sports a 4.08 ERA and 1.302 WHIP in six career starts against Toronto. There's no question that the Blue Jays have the better starter on the mound in this one.

Toronto is 31-11 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Oakland is 2-13 against the money line after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Jays are 9-0 in Romero's last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Toronto Tuesday.

Steve Janus

Chicago Cubs -106

The Cubs are showing some great value at home with their ace Ryan Dempster on the mound. While Dempster is still looking for his first win, he leads all starters with an ERA of 0.95. Getting him at -106 is well worth the risk. The Cubs offense struggles to score runs, but should be able to push across a few more than usual against Atlanta's Randall Delgado. In five starts this season, Delgado is just 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA. That ERA jumps to 6.10 on the road. B

Stephen Nover

Cincinnati Reds +122

The Brewers are almost reduced to playing their junior varsity squad being so banged-up. Injuries the past week to Alex Gonzalez, Matt Gamel and Carlos Gomez have taken a mental toll on Milwaukee, too.

The Reds, on the other hand, are beginning to play good ball winning six of their last eight.

Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo has a strong history of pitching well at home. But the Reds present a bad matchup for the right-hander. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Daniel Stubbs all have good numbers against Gallardo. Bruce owns a .471 average against Gallardo.

Gallardo has a 5.34 career ERA against the Reds in 11 career starts. Red starter Homer Bailey still is trying to reach his vast potential. He's been up and down and doesn't have good career numbers against the Brewers with a 5.63 ERA.

But the Reds are healthy, unlike the Brewers, and playing much better than Milwaukee right now. They are worth riding at this 'dog price.