MLB Predictions
Chicago Cubs -107
The Cubs put together a 5-1 win last night against the Braves to start the series off on the right foot. The victory for the Cubs was their 2nd straight and 3rd in their last 4 games which puts them at 12-17 on the season (8-9 at home). The loss for the Braves snapped a 3 game winning streak and has them in second in the NL East with a 18-12 record (10-7 on the road). Atlanta will send Randall Delgado to the mound tonight. Delgado is 2-3 on the season with a 5.14 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and .271 opponents batting average. After starting the season 2-0 he has dropped 3 straight starts to fall to 2-3. His most recent start was the longest of his career going 8 innings allowing 6 hits and 2 earned runs. He has allowed 29 hits over 28 innings of work on the season. Ryan Dempster will take the mound for the Cubs looking for his first win of the season. Despite not having a win under his belt Dempster leads the Majors with a 0.95 ERA over his 4 starts this year, and his lack of wins can be blamed on his run support. Dempster has been lights out with his 0.95 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and .144 opponents batting average. Over his 28.1 innings of work he has allowed just 14 hits, 3 earned runs while striking out 29 batters and walking just 9. Dempster is going to win more games than he losses if he continues to pitch like he is, and I think the Cubs break out for him tonight. Winners of 4 of their last 6 games, which includes a walk-off victory on Sunday and a 5-1 win last night over the Braves, I think Chicago will feel confident tonight and give Dempster enough run support to get the win. With the better pitcher on the mound take the Cubs at a very generous price at home.
Teddy Covers
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Cleveland Indians
Teddy's baseball is on fire: 19-5 (79%) with his last 24 releases, including an 11-2 (85%) run with his last 13. He's on a 71% NBA Playoff hot streak after last night's winner with the Clippers. Go for the 2-0 sweep with Teddy’s guaranteed winners on Customer Appreciation $20 Tuesday.
There’s a fairly simple strategy that has proven very profitable in MLB both this year and in season’s past. The strategy goes like this – bet ON sinkerball pitchers when they are in good current form and bet AGAINST sinkerball pitchers when they are struggling. For whatever reason, sinkerballers tend to fall in and out of rhythm, and there’s money to be made backing a guy with lousy season long stats who is on the way up or fading a guy with solid season long stats who is trending downwards.
We’ve got a ‘bet-on’ situation in play with Cleveland’s Justin Masterson right now. Masterson enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2011, with a career high 216 innings and 12 victories to go along with a 3.21 ERA, his best ERA since his rookie season back in 2008. Masterson got roughed up in three consecutive April starts, leaving him with some ugly statistics for the full season, but he’s found his rhythm in his last two outings – both Indians victories – allowing only five runs while striking out eleven batters in 14.2 innings of work. Masterson’s career numbers against Chicago (a 2.46 ERA in more than 80 innings of work against them) speak volumes about his confidence level coming into tonight’s matchup.
Meanwhile, White Sox starter John Danks is in the midst of a dismal slump right now. Danks is a notoriously slow starter – he opened up the 2011 campaign with an 0-8 record and a 5.25 ERA in April and May combined, as the White Sox went 1-10 in his starts before a mid-season turnaround. We’ve seen more of the same this year. Danks has four losses already, with an ERA of 6.51. Cleveland has faced him twice and they’ve hammered him twice: 16 hits, six walks and eleven runs scored in just 12.2 innings of work. With the Tribe surging – winners of six out of seven, and the White Sox slumping – losers of six out of seven and ten of their last 13 – we should expect more of the same tonight! Take Cleveland.
Dave Price
NY Yankees -125
James Shields has been great for Tampa Bay out of the gate, but let's not forget about his poor track record against the Yanks. He's just 5-11 (7-14 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.39 in 21 career starts versus New York. He is 0-4 on the ML in his last 4 start at Yankee Stadium and 2-8 on the ML lifetime in road starts versus the Yankees. Nova, meanwhile, is 2-0 (4-0 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.86 in 4 career starts versus the Rays. The Yankees are 10-3 in Nova's last 13 home starts. Take the Yanks.
Jimmy Boyd
San Francisco Giants +1.5 -135
The Dodgers have won 8 of Kershaw's 11 career starts versus the Giants but only one of those wins have come by more than a run. One-run games are pretty routine with Kershaw on the hill. Dating back to last season the Dodgers have won 9 of his last 10 starts. However, 6 of those wins have come by a single run.
San Francisco's Vogelsong, who has a solid 3.42 ERA on the season, has the stuff to keeps the Giants in the game. He won 2 of his 3 starts versus L.A. last season. Also, Vogelsong's teams are 15-4 in his last 19 road starts versus NL clubs scoring 4.3 or less runs/game. Take the Giants on the run line.
Jeff Alexander
Arizona D-backs -126
The D-backs are showing value at home with Kennedy on the hill at this price. They are 10-1 in Kennedy's last 11 home starts with those 10 wins coming by an average of 3.2 runs. They are also 8-0 in his last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Dating back to the start of last season, Arizona is 34-12 as a favorite of -125 to -175, including 17-4 as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Take Arizona.
NHL Predictions
Devils / Flyers Over 5.5
Tonight we see a Game 5 between the Flyers and the Devils in Philadelphia as the Flyers look to stay alive. I am continuing to play the OVER in this series again tonight even with Giroux out. With the way this series has gone I think +140 is a great price on the OVER again tonight. We've seen totals of 7, 5, 7, and 6 so far this series. In Sunday's game we needed an empty net goal to hit the OVER, but there were a ton of scoring chances throughout the game. Take the OVER again.