Jack Jones
Philadelphia 76ers -3
The Philadelphia 76ers are showing solid value as only a 3-point home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks Tuesday. The 76ers are certainly playing the better basketball of late while the Mavericks have been struggling.
Philadelphia has won seven of its last 11 games overall, and it is 5-4 at home this season. I like its chances to stay hot against a Dallas team that has lost six of its last 9 games overall. It is just 2-4 on the road this season, getting outscored by 6.2 points/game. It is really starting to miss Dirk.
Dallas is 17-35 ATS after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 20 or more since 1996. Philadelphia is 39-22 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The Mavs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The 76ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Philly is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the 76ers Tuesday.
Steve Janus
Toronto Raptors +6
Most of the focus will be on the Raptors inability to win games and not how well this team has been playing since the return of starting point guard Kyle Lowry.
Toronto enters this game having lost four straight since the return of Lowry, but those four losses have come by a combined 15 points. Their latest defeat was a 106-111 double-overtime loss to San Antonio. In each of their last three games the Raptors have held had the lead in the 4th quarter. This team is going to continue to play extremely hard until they are able to break through with a W.
This is going to be an especially important game for Lowry, who the Rockets traded this offseason to the Raptors for a draft pick. On the other side of things, the Rockets entire organization is dealing with the death of head coach Kevin McHale's 23-year-old daughter. It's going to be extremely hard for them to come out with the focus needed to beat a hungry team like the Raptors, especially with such a big game on the road tomorrow night against Oklahoma City.
Toronto is 17-6 ATS over their last 23 games when they have lost 4 of 5 over the last two seasons and are 20-6 ATS over their last 26 road games following back-to-back losses by 6-points or less!
Sean Higgs
Timberwolves vs. Kings
Play: Over 196
Just think Sacramento is going to want to push the tempo a bit. The Over is 7-1-1 last 9 in Sacramento and I can see both teams getting to 100 here tonight. Kings scored 80 in Minny back on 11/2, and will look to exact a little revenge on the visitors here tonight
Dave Price
NC State +6
NC State is 8-0 ATS in road games when playing for just the 2nd time in 8 days over the last 2 seasons. It is also 9-0 ATS in road games when checking in with 2 wins in its last games over the last 2 seasons. The Wolfpack are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 road games. They are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win,9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 15-2 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Take the points.
Rob Vinciletti
Raptors vs. Rockets
Play: Under 201½
This game fits a nice totals system that plays to the under for home teams like Houston that have 3 or more days of rest and scored 110 or more at home in their last game, vs an opponent like Toronto that scored 90 or more at home in their last game while shooting 45% or less. These game shave stayed under 78% of the time long term. The Raptors are 4-1 to the under vs losing teams and both times to the under this year after scoring 105 or more. Houston has stayed under in 4 of 5 games as a favorite this season. Look for this game to go under tonight.
Jordan Runco
NORTH CAROLINA vs. INDIANA
PLAY: INDIANA
The North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 112-70 win over Chaminade in the Maui Invitational. Indiana (6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) is coming off a 101-53 win over Ball State at home as a 27.5 point favorite. The #13 Tar Heels visit Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Ind. on Tuesday night to visit #1 Syracuse at 9:30pmET in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge.
ODDS: The oddsmakers have installed Indiana as a 10-point favorite over North Carolina.
LINE MOVEMENT: The Hoosiers opened as a 7.5-point favorite and moved up to 10 in most books.
COLLEGE HOOPS FREE PICK: Take Indiana over North Carolina. According to the latest trends: UNC is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game and are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
The Tar Heels lost Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall and John Henson to the NBA. That's four All-Conference players. They didn't win the Maui Invitational because they lost to Butler, 82-71 as a 9-point favorite in a game that wasn't even that close. Indiana is led by Cody Zeller (Tyler's younger but better brother) and a collection of very good players. He averages 15.2ppg and 7.7rpg, while Christian Watford adds 13.2ppg and 8rpg. The guard play is excellent, they have good size and depth and as long as they stay healthy, the Hoosiers should be back in the Final Four. The Heels are rebuilding this year.
Jeff Alexander
Indiana Pacers +8
The Lakers are consistently one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA. They are especially overvalued following a win and against teams that have losing records. As a result, they are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a win and 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Pacers.
Kelso
Illinois Chicago vs Northern Illinois
Pick: Illinois Chicago
Kelso's Free Pick today in College Basketball features a program near the bottom facing an opponent with nearly all the edges. Look for an easy Win. The folks in DeKalb considered it progress last year when the Huskies went 5-26 and that speaks volumes about the Northern Illinois program. The bottom line says it still remains close to rock-bottom among the mid-majors and is one of the three or four youngest college teams in that category. The futility is vividly illustrated by the Huskies 1-3 record. Northern Illinois scored its lone win of the season at home against Judson College, while losing there in its last game to Loyola-Illinois, 53-46. It opened the season with losses at Nebraska-Omaha, 77-64, and at Valparaiso, 69-46. Illinois-Chicago returns four starters from last year’s rebuilding 8-22 team and has every edge but the home court in this one—and the figures say that won’t be difficult to overcome.
Joe Gavazzi
Nebraska +5
Third year HC Bzdelik and first year NE mentor Miles will be residing in the basement of their respective leagues. The talent is clearly not there. In this matchup, I favor the coaching of Miles, who did a fantastic job in reviving Colorado St fortunes in previous recent seasons. He parlayed 39 wins the last two seasons with the Rams to this higher profile job. It has already paid off with victories against respected sides Valpo and Tulane. Wake has yet to post a quality win, and barely squeezed by the Boys and the Girls on the 23rd. Try defensively tenacious NE as underdog.
Iowa +1½
In this contest, I am siding with the better team and the more established program as underdog. Veteran third year Iowa HC McCaffery has now instilled his concepts in a team of mostly his players. Behind a guard tandem of Marble and Gessell, the Hawkeyes are miles ahead on the perimeter of this VA Tech team who returns just 2 RS and is looking to adjust to the ways of new HC Johnson (former Tech assistant). More impressed with Hawkeyes early season wins against underrated Gardner Webb and Western Kentucky, than Tech's wins against re-loading Rhode Island and NC Green. Try the dog here.
Alf Musketa
Toronto at Houston
Play: Under
Most of my NBA handicapping time is spent analyzing team matchups and projecting how many points they will score and surrender against their next opponent and thus I have a total to work with versus the betting line. I don't do too much work subjectively with the NBA rosters and use current stats for the bulk of my breakdown.
In my opinion the totals line for this game tonight between Toronto and Houston is too high for several reasons. Houston in their last game poured in 131 points against the Knicks and gives us some line value here. Also, the Knicks were clearly lackluster, tired, on the third and last road game of a four-day road game trip, and it was their sixth road game in 10 days. The Rockets couldn't miss a shot it seemed hitting 52 percent from the field, 56 percent from three-point range and they got to the charity stripe 28 times that resulted in 25 free throw points. The totals line on that game was 198, which versus the high scoring Knicks was too low. Now against Toronto, who has yet to have a betting total line above 197 this entire season, we see a total of more than 200.
Toronto hasn't scored 100 points in regulation in seven games. Their last game and team total of 106 versus San Antonio was in double overtime – they only produced 86 points in four quarters. A key to the Raptors success this season is and will be the acquisition of guard Kyle Lowry from Houston. Lowry returns to play against his former team and I project the Rockets will keep him in check and this should help our play on the UNDER.
Nelly
Raptors / Rockets Over
Both of these teams have allowed over 100 points per game and over 44 percent shooting on the season and this is likely to be higher scoring game Tuesday night. The Rockets have not played since Friday and while this is a trying time with Kevin McHale's daughter passing away the team should be focused and united. They have been playing under assistant coach Kelvin Sampson for the last eight games, going 4-4 and scoring almost 106 points per game in that stretch. In five of eight games Houston has allowed triple-digits however as this has been a struggling defensive team. The Raptors are on track to be one of the worst teams in the NBA with a 3-11 start to the season and a 1-7 road team. Toronto has allowed over 101 points per game on average in the last 10 games and this is a challenging set-up with a sixth road game in the last eight contests. The home team has won 10 consecutive games in this series, scoring triple-digits in six of the last seven meetings with the winning team reaching 114 points in three of the last four meetings. Houston is not a particularly deep team which makes the added rest important for this game so the Rockets should be well positioned for a good offensive game which should help this game reach higher-scoring numbers.