Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 29

Lenny Del Genio

St Louis Blues at Washington Capitals
Play: Washington Capitals

Rare hockey play tonight as the favored Caps play their first game since firing head coach Bruce Boudreau. The team was not responding to him any longer, particularly Ovechkin, having fallen to 8th in the Eastern Conference. St. Louis knows the power of a coaching change. They are 7-1-2 since Ken Hitchcock came aboard, but tonight the tables are turned. The Blues have been fortunate over the last week as they've scored 2 goals or less in four of five games, yet are 4-1. Caps get back on track.

Jim Feist

Clemson vs Iowa
Pick: Clemson

Iowa steps up to face the mighty ACC in this one, and it's a test they haven't been up to: The Hawkeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Atlantic Coast. Iowa has lost 2 of its last 3 games to Creighton and Campbell. They shot 36% against Campbell. Meanwhile, the Clemson Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Play Clemson!

Dave Cokin

Arizona vs New Mexico State
Pick: Arizona

New Mexico State has looked sharp so far, but I think the number on this game is slightly off. Arizona is off back to back losses and I expect the Wildcats to be ready to play tonight. Can't pass on what I think is nice value on Arizona with points.

Matt Fargo

NY Islanders vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Buffalo Sabres

This may seem like a big number to be laying with a team that is riddled with injuries but the Sabres are getting healthier and their laundry list of injuries is decreasing. Buffalo is coming off a win over Washington Saturday which was the final straw for Capitals general manager George McPhee as he fired coach Bruce Boudreau on Monday. The victory snapped a three-game winless streak for the Sabres and they can take over first place in the Northeast with a win tonight.

The Islanders are coming off a win as well as they defeated the Devils on Saturday. The impressive part was that it came on the road which was their first road win of the season after starting 0-5-2 away from home. New York still has the fewest points in the Eastern Conference with 16 and back-to-back wins have been few and far between of late as it is 0-3 in its last three games following a win, losing those games by a combined score of 16-3. The Islanders are a putrid 29-92 in their last 121 road games.

One key injury remains for Buffalo and that is goalie Ryan Miller who looks to start practicing again following a concussion. There is no timetable for his return but backup goalie Jhonas Enroth has been solid, going 8-3-1 with a 2.29 GAA and a .925 save percentage. He made 26 saves on 27 shots against the Capitals on Saturday. The Islanders are averaging just 1.9 gpg on the season including 1.8 gpg on the road and that former average is worst in the league as is their 6.9 percent on shots.

While scoring has been an issue for New York, so hasn't the defense. The Islanders have allowed four goals or more in eight of their last 10 games after allowing that many only two times in their first 11 games. That is a big issue against Buffalo that is averaging 33.7 shots per game at home this season. While the Islanders have been bad following a win, they have been worse following games played away from home as they are 0-7 this season in their seven games following a road game.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Islanders +240 over Buffalo (3-way line)

This is a three-way betting line wager whereas the Islanders must win in regulation. This type of line is not offered at Pinnacle but it’s offered at most other joints including BET365, 5Dimes and Sportsinteraction. It eliminates overtime and allows us to take back anywhere between 50 and 80 cents more than the standard betting line. What’s interesting is that the Islanders are only taking back +148 on the standard line and that’s a little puzzling when you consider that they have just one road win all year and the fewest wins in the league, tied with Columbus and Anaheim. By contrast, the Jackets are a +215 pooch in Vancouver tonight. That alone suggests the books are giving the Islanders a decent shot of winning here. The problem with the Islanders all season has been goaltending. They signed Rick DiPietro to a $67M contract a few years ago and felt obligated to play him since they’re paying him a fortune. Money not well spent, they now appear to be leaning to Al Montoya. The Islanders have picked up points in two of their last three games. They lost in OT to Philly and split a home-and-home series with the Devils with both games decided by a goal. The Islanders are better than their record indicates and thus, we get some tremendous value on them because of their awful record. As soon as the Jackets made a goaltending switch they started racking up points. The same could happen with the Islanders. As for the Sabres, they do get some bodies back but despite their good record they have not looked right all season long. They could easily overlook this opponent and get caught napping. The line suggests so. Play: N.Y. Islanders +240 (Risking 2 units).

Pittsburgh -½ +145 over N.Y. RANGERS

The Rangers are hot with nine wins in 11 games and that’s why the Pens are only a small favorite in this game. However, we can play the puck line or three-way line and take back a pretty sweet tag and that’s precisely the plan. The Rangers are an overachieving squad and a correction in their winning percentage is forthcoming, especially that unsustainable win percentage at home. New York is getting crushed during 5-on-5 play in terms of shots for and shots allowed. The Rangers currently own the second-worst shot differential per game during even-strength play at minus-8 and for a team that does not score a lot of goals, that’s a time bomb, sure to go off soon. A close look at their recent schedule shows the Rangers beating every non-playoff team in the league during their current surge. They defeated a reeling Capitals team and a depleted Flyers team and prior to that they defeated the Islanders, Carolina, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Montreal and Anaheim. Eight of the Rangers 12 wins this season have come against teams under .500. This is an average team, which will be exposed as soon as the schedule gets tougher. That begins here. Play: Pittsburgh -½ +145 (Risking 2 units).

Hollywood Sports

Blue Jackets at Canucks
Prediction: Under

Columbus (6-14-0-3) enters this game coming off a 2-1 loss at the hands of St. Louis -- and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when played with one day of rest in between games. The Blue Jackets are just 1-7-0-2 on the road this season. Vancouver (13-9-0-1) has played 4 straight games Under the Total at home against teams with a losing record on the road. The Canucks have won four games in a row after 3-2 win at San Jose on Saturday. After three straight games on the road, Vancouver returns home where they have seen the Under go a decisive 18-7-2 in their last 27 home games. Take the Under here.

Larry Ness

New Mexico St -3

The Arizona Wildcats lost the do-everything Derrick Williams (19.5-8.7), who led them to the West Regional finals last year (lost 65-63 to eventual national champ, UConn). More bad news came with the unexpected transfer of MoMo Jones (9.7). The Wildcats did open 4-0 this year but have since lost 67-57 to Miss St (at MSG) and then at home, 61-57 vs San Diego St. New Mexico State was just 16-17 last year but the Lobos have opened 5-1 this season. The team lost the 6-8 Gillenwater (18.9-6.3) but returning after missing last season due to an injury is the 6-6 McKines and he's been great, averaging 17.0 PPG and the 9.5 RPG. He's joined up front by the 6-11 Rahman (6.8-6.8) the 6-8 Sy (11.3-3.7) and small forward Watson (5.8-3.0). The starting backcourt is solid, with sophomore Kabongo (15.5-3.0-3.5) and senior Larouche (10.7-3.3-4.8). Fogg (11.5) leads a group of solid Arizona guards, joined by Mayes (8.5), Turner (6.6) and Parrom (5.0). Up front, it's the 6-6 Hill (12.0-8.2), the 6-7 Perry (10.5-9.3) and 6-8 freshman Johnson (9.7). Arizona routed 83-57 New Mexico State last year but I expect the Aggies to avenge that loss in this one.

We Cover Spreads

Manhattan +9

I think this line opened a little high. My personal #'s show this line should be about 7.5 so that's a full point and a half of value. Penn has not been doing a good job defending their home court this year going 1-4 Straight up.The key to betting this game is if Manhattan's leading scorer George Beamon plays. He is listed as questionable with a thigh injury. If he suits up Manhattan is a strong play for me at the current # of 9. If he doesn't I'd still lean Manhattan and and would wait for the line to creep into double digits.

NHL Predictions

Islanders / Sabres Over 5.5

The 6-11-4 Islanders head into Buffalo coming off of a 3-2 win in New Jersey that snapped a 4 game losing skid. Buffalo is dealing with a lot of injuries but managed to rebound from 3 straight losses with a big 5-1 victory over Washington on Saturday. Tonight’s play on the OVER has a lot to do with numbers and how these two teams play each other. In their 4 meetings last season all 4 games went OVER the total with totals of: 13, 8, 7, and 8. The Islanders are also allowing an average of 3.38 goals against per game on the road (and a high 3.19 goals against per game overall), while the Sabres are scoring 3.38 goals per game on home ice. The OVER is 7-3-1 in the Islanders las 11 games overall, and the OVER is 4-0 in the Sabres last 4 overall. The OVER is also 6-0 in the Sabres last 6 home games, and 39-18-3 in their last 60 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Islanders haven’t been scoring much, but a 3 goal performance in New Jersey for the win should help boost their confidence. I look for the trend of these two teams playing the OVER to continue here tonight and will take it at a good price.

Steve Janus

Georgia Tech +1

My money is on the Yellow Jackets to hand Northwestern their first loss of the season tonight. Georgia Tech is a lot better than they are getting credit for, as they have played three of their six games without star guard Glen Rice Jr. Head coach Brian Gregory suspended Rice Jr. for the first three games of the season, and it seems to have Rice focused in on playing the game. The junior swingman is averaging a team-best 17.7 points to go along with 7 rebounds in a reserve role. While he might continue to come off the bench, I expect him to play big minutes against Northwestern.

Not only does Rice Jr provide a huge spark offensively, but he makes the Yellow Jackets even better on the defensive side of the ball. Georgia Tech is holding opponents just under 57 points a game. Northwestern comes in averaging 72 ppg, but I expect them to be thrown off their game tonight by the slow tempo of the Yellow Jackets.

This game is being played at Philips Arena. While it's not a true home game for Georgia Tech, it is definitely going to feel like one. Northwestern hasn't a true road game all season, with all of their games either coming at home or in the Charleston Classic in South Carolina.

Georgia Tech is 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.

WUNDERDOG

Michigan at Virginia
Pick: Virginia -3

Tonight, a pair of conference heavyweights do battle in Charlottesville as No. 15 Michigan takes on the Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavs have been decisive on the defensive end of the court, allowing just 47 points per game will make shot selection a must for the Wolverines as almost everything will be challenged. It will be even tougher as this will be the first true road game of the season for Michigan. Virginia is still under the radar, leading to a stellar 18-7 ATS mark over their last 25 games, which includes 15-6 ATS in their last 21 vs. a winning team. Ranked teams often struggle on the road vs. an unranked team, so I like Virginia to grab the win and cover at home.

Florida at Carolina
Pick: Carolina -105

The Panthers' offense has suddenly gone stone cold. They have managed to light the lamp just four times in their last three games, and the last two have resulted in losses. They have to pick-up the pieces as they take to the road vs. Carolina tonight, as these teams meet for the first time this season. The Hurricanes have dropped three straight themselves, but are in a good spot as they are 19-8 in their last 27 as a favorite of -150 or less. The Panthers, on the other hand, find themselves in a bad spot as they are now 0-8 in their last eight contests when playing on two days of rest. That is likely to become 0-9 after tonight as playing at Carolina has truly been a house of horrors for this Panthers team. Florida is now 4-24-2 in their last 30 trips to Carolina. Play on Carolina in this one.

Jack Jones

Saint Louis -9

Saint Louis is off to its best start in 14 years, earning its last four victories over teams from major conferences. The No. 23 Billikens play their first game as a ranked squad since the 1993-94 season when they visit Loyola Marymount on Tuesday night.

With all five starters back from last season for head coach Rick Majerus, this has been one of the biggest surprise teams in the country. Not only are they winning, they are absolutely dominating opponents. Plus, the Billikens have played a very tough schedule.

All six of their wins have come by 11 points or more. That includes victories over Washington (77-64), Boston College (62-51), Villanova (80-68) and Oklahoma (83-63). I fully expect this team to win by double-digits over Loyola Marymount tonight as well.

Marymount has already lost two home games to Middle Tennessee State (51-58) and to Harvard (67-77). This will actually be perhaps the easiest game of the season to this point for the Billikens, who are outscoring opponents 72.3 to 54.2 while shooting 50.0 percent from the floor and limiting their foes to 38.7 percent shooting.

Marymount is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Marymount is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game. Marymount is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Billikens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Bet Saint Louis Tuesday.

Black Widow

1* North Texas +22½

This line has moved from 19 all the way up to 22.5, providing us with ample value to pull the trigger on North Texas Tuesday. The Texas Longhorns are clearly down this season, opening 3-2 with neutral court losses to Oregon State and NC State. This team hasn't covered a spread yet, and they are coming off a lackluster 56-40 win over Sam Houston State while shooting 31.6 percent from the floor. This is clearly a rebuilding year for the Longhorns, who don't return any starters from last season. North Texas has faced a tough schedule in the early going. They opened with a 81-52 home win over St. Gregory's before going on the road for three straight losses. The Mean Green did play Texas Tech tough away from home, eventually falling 64-69. They have a 23-point loss at Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs are a better team than Texas. Plays on road underdogs of 20 or more points (N TEXAS) - after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 125 points or less are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS since 1997. The Longhorns are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 3 seasons. Texas is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The Longhorns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. North Texas is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog. Take North Texas and the points.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit Duke/Ohio State Under 143½

Ohio State is very, very solid defensively. It has only allowed one opponent to shoot better than 40% on the season. Consider that Ohio State has played to the under in 17 of its last 21 home games when matched up against very good shooting team that are making 48% or more of their shots. The Buckeyes have held these teams to just 62.5 points on average. With this in mind, I expect Ohio State to have enough success holding down the Blue Devils to keep this one under the number.