Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, October 29

Jesse Schule

L.A. Clippers vs. L.A. Lakers
Pick: L.A. Clippers

It's official, Kobe Bryant will not play in the season opener versus the Clippers. Instead it will likely be Steve Blake starting at shooting guard, and he's played well in pre-season.

The Clippers won and covered all three meetings last season, and two of those games were blowouts. Without Kobe, and Dwight now in Houston, this year's version of the Lakers brings very little expectations.

The Clippers love nothing more than running up the score on their inter-city rivals. Don't think for a second that they will allow the Lakers to hang around and make it close.

There has been a changing of the guard at the Staples Center, and if there was any doubt about which is the best team in L.A., the team that calls itself "Lob City" will want to put that to bed on Opening Night.

The Lakers are old and slow, one of the least athletic teams in the league, and the Clippers are the exact opposite. It wasn't a great matchup at the best of times, but with the Lakers short-handed, it's gonna be trouble.

Red Dog Sports

Orlando vs. Indiana
Play: Under 187½

The Indiana Pacers have one of the best defenses in the NBA as they were near the top in field goal defense as well as scoring defense last season. Orlando is without a proven scorer. I think we see the Pacers play solid defense on opening night and we get a game in the low 180's. Take the under for one unit on Tuesday.

Ray Monohan

Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat
Play: Chicago Bulls +5

Happy NBA New Year everyone. Three games to get things started on Tuesday night but none more exciting than Chicago at Miami. Derrick Rose is back and the reports are that he looks great. This is the first real test and you can bet he and the Bulls will be motivated even though there are 81 more games after this one. On the other side I think the Heat are going to downplay, they are the defending champs after all. Miami was 6-8 ATS last season in the first month and it wasn’t until the New Year that the really got things cooking. They are ripe for a disappointment on opening night.

Dave Mathews

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -8

New coach Doc Rivers takes over a very talented, young Clippers team led by Chris Paul. Rivers' ability to coach defense and team work could be the difference between a playoff team or a championship squad. The Clippers destroyed the Lakers in all four games last year. The Lakers are old and without Kobe Bryant, who is trying to return form an Achilles tendon injury. Paul will simply destroy Steve Nash, who couldn't defend him five years ago and now he's on his last legs. The Lakers lost Dwight Howard and replaced him with former Clippers big man Chris Kaman. That's not an even trade.

Andre Gomes

Indiana -11.5

We will have a lot of games this season with double digits lines, but a top team like Indiana won't be just a -11.5 points favorite many times against a lowly team like Orlando. I have no doubt that the Pacers will be once again a top team this season. I watched some of their preseason games and their defense will be once again a top 3 unit, while they are more inconsistent on offense but with Luis Scola and C.J. Watson coming off the bench, Indiana will also be a better offensive team than they were last season, especially considering how much Roy Hibbert struggled on offense during the first half of the past season.

Matchup wise, Orlando couldn't have a worse matchup than Indiana on their season debut. The Magic will have a lot of problems on offense not only due to lack of talent, but also because their best player Nikola Vucevic will face the best defensive frontcourt in the league. This is why Vucevic could only have the following numbers against Indiana last season:

@ IND 3/19: 31min, 4-12 FG 9pts and 11reb
vs IND 03/08: 34min, 6-11 FG 12pts and 6 reb
vs IND 01/16: 35min, 7-13 FG 16 pts and 15 reb

I know we can't take the preseason very seriously, but Orlando committed 20.6 turnovers per game in those games and they will now face the best defensive team in the league. So, I don't expect things to work well for the Magic at all. On the other side, Indiana will have a clear mismatch at the PF position that they will explore without much problems. Orlando has both Glen Davis and Tobias Harris out for this game, so Moe Harkless and Andrew Nicholson will be the two available players that can play at the PF position. So, these two players will have to defend David West and then Luis Scola, good luck with that!

Indiana showed in the preseason that they are already focused and that they are ready to play faster and more aggressive in order to force turnovers to their opponents. On their last three preseason games, they forced, 22, 20 and 25 turnovers that led to almost 20 fast break points per game in those games. This is something that should also happen in here, as Orlando doesn't have good ball handlers, something that makes them turnover prone. I have Indiana winning this game by at least 15 points and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Bryan Power

Tampa Bay vs. New Jersey
Pick: Under

The last seven times the Lightning & Devils have met, the Over has cashed. I expect a different result this go-around.

Both teams come into this Tuesday night tilts off respective 4-3 victories Sunday. Tampa Bay downed Florida, on the road, for their third straight win. New Jersey won as a big dog, at Boston, for only their second win of the year. That four-goal output matched a season-high for the Devils. Their 24 goals scored for the season are the 5th fewest of any team in the league. Off the previous two instances of the team scoring four goals in a game this season, New Jersey would go on to score 1 and 2 goals respectively the following game.

Tampa Bay has seen its fair share of high scoring results this season, which is nothing new for them. The Lightning are the surprise leaders in the Atlantic Division right now thanks to being 3rd in the league in goals per game. But the oddsmakers really want to discourage you from the Under here with some high juice and I'll follow their lead. With Ben Bishop and Martin Brodeur slated to start in net this evening, we should have solid play between the pipes.

Jim Feist

Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Orlando Magic +12

The Pacers embarrassed the Magic the last time they faced each other. On March 19 at Amway Center, Indiana thumped Orlando 95-73 as Orlando managed to make just 32 percent of its shot attempts. "A different year," Magic coach Jacque Vaughn said. "A different team." This is a young athletic team with 21-year-old rookie guard Victor Oladipo, 23-year-old center Nik Vucevic, 21-year-old forward Tobias Harris and Harkless, who is 20. Indiana is getting a lot of press as the team to beat in the East, but they won't be in mid-season form in the opener. And this has been a weak bench, with Indiana's second unit ranking 29th in scoring with 24.1 points last season, so grab the big dog.

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Clippers -8½

The Los Angeles Clippers are the team to beat in the Western Conference in my opinion. They hired head coach Doc Rivers in the offseason, and he could be the missing link that this team needed to get over the hump and win a championship.

The talent is certainly there to do so with a core that returns Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes. The additions of J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley will help space the floor with their ability to knock down open jump shots. Byron Mullens is a solid offensive replacement for Jordan, who is one of the best defenders the league has to offer.

The Los Angeles Lakers are actually in a bit of a rebuilding phase for once. With Kobe Bryant still sidelined due to injury, the starting five will likely consist of Steve Nash, Steve Blake, Nick Young, Shawne Williams and Pau Gasol. The bench players are expected to be Jordan Farmar, Jodie Meeks, Xavier Henry, Wes Johnson, Jordan Hill and Chris Kaman. As you can see, this team certainly lacks star power.

You saw what happened to the Lakers when they were without Bryant in the playoffs. They were swept in four games by the San Antonio Spurs and were never competitive, losing all four games by double-digits. Now, they no longer have Dwight Howard around. This team is thoroughly outclassed Tuesday night, and I look for that to be reflected in the final score.

The Clippers owned the Lakers last season even with a healthy Bryant on the floor. They swept the Lakers for the first time in ages, winning three times by double-digits in the process. Their average margin of victory in the four games was 13.3 points per game. I have no doubt the Clippers have what it takes to win by 9-plus points in the opener. The Lakers are 8-20 against the spread in their last 28 games as an underdog. Bet the Clippers Tuesday.

Bruce Marshall

Orlando vs. Indiana
Pick: Indiana

The arrow seems to be pointing up in Orlando, with an interesting young core of talent that was augmented by the selection of Indiana swingman Victor Oladipo (back in his old territory for opener) in the draft. And the Magic showed signs of burgeoning competitiveness last season when covering 23 of 39 as a road dog. But not sure Magic hit the new season at full strength, with C Nikola Vucevic nursing elbow problems and key contributors Tobias Harris and Big Baby Davis both on the shelf to start the campaign. After losing first matchup vs. Magic last season, Indiana dominated the next two meetings, and Pacers only needed to make subtle tweaks (good depth additions Luis Scola and C.J. Watson to mix, plus importantly signing Paul George to a contract extension) to their title-contending roster in offseason.

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers

The Lakers have owned Los Angeles for many years. but heading into the brand new NBA campaign, the only serious contender out of the city this year figures to be the Clippers.

It’s not exactly a state secret that the Lakers are a team in transition. Even with a healthy Kobe Bryant, not many are giving this team a chance to be a playoff team, let alone a contender. With Bryant not yet ready to go as he rehabs the Achilles heel injury, there is almost nothing positive to say about the Lakers right now. They looked really ragged on offense during the pre-season, and I would expect that to be the case now that the real games are about to get underway.

The Clippers are no longer material for insults and jokes. This team is legit and the proof of that assessment is reflected in the Over/Under win total that has the Clippers projected to win the Western Conference top seed. Whether or not the Clippers actually are the best in the west is debatable. But with the talent on the roster and the huge upgrade on the bench with Doc Rivers supplanting Vinny Del Negro, the optimism surrounding this team is totally justified.

One thing we learned last year is the Clippers seem to relishing their role as the best team in LA, and took special pleasure in proving it every time they played the Lakers. The Clippers won all four meetings, and for the most part, these were no doubt about it results.

I really don’t see much of a problem for the chalk in this season opener. There aren’t any scheduling dynamics to factor in. If you match up the active rosters for tonight’s game, it’s simply not close. I don’t see any chance that the Clippers are in coast mode against the team they share Staples Center with, and in fact I like the idea that the Clippers are forced to play the role of visitor tonight. In a sense, it’s still second fiddle syndrome once more. It’s as if the NBA is telling the Clippers, yeah you’re the better team, but they’re still the Lakers, so go put on the road jerseys. The points are substantial, but not enough to keep me away. I’ll side with the Clippers to get there by double digits and will lay the points tonight.

Ryan M. Sports

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers
Take: Toronto Maple Leafs -115

The 8-4 Toronto Maple Leafs head to Rexall Place to take on the 3-8 Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton comes into this game on a 3 game losing streak and 1-3 at home on the season. They are a dysfunctional bunch with no chemistry on offense and bad goaltending. Richard Bachman is probable in net for the Oilers. Bachman got his first start on Sunday against the Kings, losing in a shootout while playing over his head. James Reimer (3-0) is probable in net for the Leafs and has been stellar as of late letting up 2 goals in his last 3 starts. Look for the Leafs power play to shine as they are 3rd in the league with a 26.67 PP% while the Oilers are 2nd to last in the league with a 75.51 PK%

Larry Ness

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers

I’m sure the Lakers are not willing to admit it but it’s hard to argue against the fact that the Clippers have usurped the Lakers as LA’s top team. The addition of Doc Rivers to “coach up” what was already a very talented roster has the Clippers looking for much more than being just No. 1 in LA, in the 2013-14 season. What a difference a year makes. The Lakers were the ones with championship expectations entering last season, following the acquisitions of Dwight Howard and Steve Nash. However, both were plagued by injuries and when Kobe suffered a torn Achilles tendon just prior to the opening of the postseason, the team’s “championship run” ended with a first-round sweep at the hands of the Spurs.

Dwight Howard couldn’t wait to get of of town and signed with Houston, shortly after his contract expired. No timetable has been set for Kobe's return, so Nash and Pau Gasol will be counted on to lead this team in the meantime. "It's really important for us to embrace these low expectations, try to find a chemistry and build ourselves into a team that has some confidence," said Nash, who at 39 is the league's oldest player. The duo will be playing alongside a virtual scrap heap of free-agent acquisitions, including Nick Young, Wesley Johnson, Jordan Farmar and Shawne Williams. "We may not be as talented at the top like last year, but I think we got younger, more athletic with more shooters who can space the floor," Nash said. I wonder if Nash actually believes what he says.

The 56-26 Clippers finished 11 games better than the Lakers last season, including a season sweep of the teams’ four-game series, for the first time since coming to LA. The Clippers won the four meetings by an average of 13.2 PPG and as the team gets to begin the 2013-14 season, being better than their historically superior co-tenants of Staples Center, seems to be the least of their concerns. The Clippers have been successful in the regular season the last two seasons, as their 96 wins over the last two years rank fifth in the NBA. However, after a second-round exit in the 2012 playoffs, the Clippers were eliminated in the first round by Memphis last year, despite jumping out to a 2-0 series lead.

"We have higher expectations for ourselves than anybody else," forward Blake Griffin said. "We don't feel we've arrived until we win a championship." Rivers has put a priority on building a championship mentality, seen in his move to have the Lakers' banners and retired jerseys covered inside Staples Center for Clippers home games. Chris Paul signed a five-year, $107 million extension in the offseason, despite a resume which includes winning only two playoff series in his career. Paul, who tied for the league lead in steals with 2.4 per game and finished second in assists at 9.7, should be happy with his surrounding cast.

The Clippers added a trio three-point shooters in J.J. Redick, Jared Dudley and Byron Mullens, plus the signing of Darren Collison should help Paul find more time to catch a breather. Paul sliced and diced Lakers a year ago (he’s averaged 22.1 points and 12.4 assists in his last seven games against the Lakers) and the Laker defense does not appear to have been upgraded much (if at all), from last year. I’m laying the points in Doc Rivers’ “home” debut.

John Ryan

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

The simulator shows a high probability that Lakers will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. The entire NBA basketball world has written off the Lakers this season. In fact, the wins line for the Lakers stands at just 36 wins for this season. The public has been steadily betting 'under' that total over the past month. The Lakers are not going to be a formidable force in the Western Conference, but I do believe they are far stronger than most 'talking heads' would make you believe. So, I would consider betting 'OVER' 36 1/2 wins at a very nice +130 line. The Clippers are deep entering this season and their win total is lined at 57 1/2. I have no opinion on this total, but if forced, I would lean under. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-12 ATS mark for 76% winners since 1996. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) that are average teams from last season that won between 45 and 55% of their games. Take the Lakers.

Jimmy Boyd

Orlando Magic +12

The Pacers are getting a little too much respect from the oddsmakers based on their postseason rally last year. As good as Indiana may be, they are still a team that relies heavily on their defensive play to win games. They are not a big scoring threat and for that reason I don't think they can cover a double-digit margin in the first regular season game of the year.

The Pacers recently announced they will once again be without Danny Granger who is out with a calf injury. Granger played in just five games last season, and the offense will struggle without him. The Magic will have the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, Victor Oladipo, and he is the kind of player that will make an immediate impact to his team. Oladipo will have a mentor on the court with him as Jameer Nelson leads the Magic at point guard. Nelson was top ten in the league with 7.4 assists last season.