Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 10

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

LA Dodgers at San Diego
The Padres look to build on their 7-0 record in Eric Stults' last 7 starts against a team with a winning record. San Diego is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100)

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at St. Louis (1:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.576; St. Louis (Westbrook) 16.370
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Over

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Arizona (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Sanchez) 14.971; Arizona (Miley) 16.153
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-175); Under

Game 955-956: Colorado at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 15.862; San Francisco (Zito) 17.186
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Under

Game 957-958: NY Mets at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hefner) 15.479; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.427
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Over

Game 959-960: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.658; Miami (Sanabia) 14.432
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-160); Over

Game 961-962: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 13.867; Cubs (Feldman) 13.692
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); N/A

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.325; San Diego (Stults) 15.732
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over

Game 965-966: Toronto at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 13.892; Detroit (Porcello) 16.182
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 14.828; Texas (Holland) 16.528
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Under

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 13.960; Cleveland (Myers) 15.206
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-105); Under

Game 971-972: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Arrieta) 15.770; Boston (Dempster) 16.004
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under

Game 973-974: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hendriks) 15.987; Kansas City (Davis) 15.363
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); Over

Game 975-976: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Millone) 15.615; LA Angels (Blanton) 15.851
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); Under

Game 977-978: Houston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 13.959; Seattle (Beavan) 14.910
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-160); Over

Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.202; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.720
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160); Under

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco GiantsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Francisco GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tonight we have a dog system that has won 13 Straight times and Triple Perfect Dominator play. MLB Play below. On Wednesday the Free MLB play is on the San Francisco Giants. Game 956 at 3:45 eastern. The Giants go for the sweep here today and they have Barry Zito on the Mound. Zito has won 8 of 10 at home vs Colorado and 7 of his last 8 home starts in April. He will oppose Jeff Francis for Colorado. Francis teams have lost 17 of 18 when he starts in day games of late and he has lost his last 5 Road starts in April. He has also dropped his last 2 here in San Francisco. The Rockies are 37-71 in day games and have lost 30 of the last 44 as a road dog from +125 to +150. The Giants are a long term 65-38 vs left handed pitching and have won 28 of the last 37 vs Colorado. An interesting system that pertain to this one is that road teams like Colorado that are off a road loss that scored 5 or more runs but only managed 4 or less hits have lost 6 of 7 times since 2004, so as we can see that does not happen much. Take the Giants tonight.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans Hornets at Sacramento KingsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Sacramento KingsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Kings host the Hornets in a matchup of two teams looking forward to hitting the links as opposed to the playoffs in eight days. Sacramento will look to avenge a page of same season losses, the last a 15-point defeat, here tonight. With the host team in this series 21-8 ATS of late, and the Kings 11-5 ATS their 16 games as a favorite, we'll stay at home in Arco Arena with the Sac-pack this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Sacramento.

Bruce MarshallFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LA Dodgers vs. San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San DiegoFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Reputation is fueling prices on games involving the Dodgers, but we wonder why, considering the Blue haven't been a postseason team in four years and their early-season form has been lackluster to say the least, even considering their three-game sweep over perennial punching bag Pittsburgh. Indeed, a mere 20 runs scored in 7 games suggests real problems with an offense that has yet to get any meaningful contributions from Matt Kemp, and we saw how LA's attack bogged down a year ago when Kemp was out with injury. Also, not sure what to expect from starter Chad Billingsley in his first regular-season game back from last year's elbow surgery; he was mostly ineffective in limtied spring work, allowing 7 runs in 7 2/3 IP. Meanwhile, all indications are that San Diego, which scored only 14 runs while losing 5 of 6 on the road to start the campaign, is going to love the new friendlier dimensions in its Petco Park after erupting for nine runs Tuesday in the romp past the Dodgers. Starter Eric Stults has also been a revelation since being claimed off waivers from the White Sox last season, with an 8-3 record and 2.94 ERA in 14 starts last year and sharp last Thursday vs. the Mets when allowing only 3 hits and no runs with 5 Ks in 5 innings of work at Citi Field.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. NY RangersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: NY RangersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played twice this year: the Rangers won 5-2 in New York on January 26th, before the Buds won 4-3 North of the border on Monday. New York is 19-16-4 overall, and 12-6-2 at home. Toronto is 22-13-4 overall and 11-6-2 on the road. The Leafs are on the verge of punching their ticket to the postseason, something they haven't been involved with since 2004. The Rangers sit in the seventh spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race, tied with the Islanders with 42 points. The Leafs have a comfortable six-point lead over the Rangers. However, things aren't as comfortable for the Blue Shirts, as New Jersey and Winnipeg are both tied with 40 points and are nipping at their heels. In my opinion, this is a "must win" game for New York. The "revenge" angle is a legitimate factor in this game obviously, and with two whole days off before hitting the road for a crucial two game trip vs. the Isles and Flyers, tonight's contest takes on added importance for the home side. I believe the overwhelming external motivating factors working in favor of the Rangers justifies in laying this mid-sized price.

Ken ThomsonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay +120FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a solid value play- it goes early at 11:05 AM PST so get on it...Matt Moore was dominant in his first outing ( 2-hits in six innings / 8 K's ).....ride him as he will be focused to stop the bleeding for Manager Joe Madden's Rays......Holland, himself was solid....allowing only 2 runs in his first game....but this is as big an early game for Tampa as last Sunday's game was for the Yankees, when Sabathia stepped up and beat Verlander and the Tigers....take the plus $$.

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Piyysburgh / Arizona Under 9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's a getaway day in the desert as the Pirates and Diamondbacks square off on Wednesday afternoon at Chase Field. Two southpaws take the mound as Jonathan Sanchez takes on Wade Miley. Through the first seven games, both the Pirates and the Diamondbacks have been atrocious against left handed pitching. The Pirates entered Tuesday's action 6-for-72 against lefties, while the Diamondbacks weren't much better at 7-for-62.
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Sanchez threw the ball pretty well in his first start, showing more consistent velocity, and he struck out four against just one walk. Miley looked outstanding in his first start of 2013 against the Brewers, going six strong innings with eight strikeouts. This game has two guys who are throwing the ball pretty well, against two lineups that struggle against left handed pitching, and it's a getaway day game where both teams will be looking forward to Thursday's off day.
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Home plate umpire Gary Darling has already called two unders this season and he has called at least five more unders than overs in three of the last four seasons.

Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay +114 over TEXAS: The Rays are reeling a bit as they have lost 3 in a row, but this looks like a perfect spot for them to get one back. Matt More had a nice opening start, allowing 0 ER's on 2 hits in 6 innings to the Cleveland Indians. Matt has faced Texas once and he allowed 0 ER's in 7 innings of work in that start back in 2011. No he should have an edge cause Rangers hitters haven't faced him all that much and the ones that did are a combined 1-21 vs him. DereR Holland has faced the Rays and he is 4-2 vs them, but with a high 5.36 ERA, and current Rays hitters have hit .254 with 6 HR's, 8 doubles and 20 RBI's off of him n 130 AB's. Derek also has has a high 5.28 ERA in this park, despite a 22-13 record. I feel that Tampa Bay's offense can get to Holland a bit more than the Ranger offense will get to Moore, giving Tampa Bay all it needs to avoid the sweep here.

Brad DiamondFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orioles / Red Sox Over 9½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After starting the season 3-1 the Birds have moved out of the lime light and into the ashes of the AL East. The counter culture Red Sox are leading the division in the early going with a 5-2 mark. With Arrieta 0-4 L4 against the Sox, the line has been driven higher which equates to more value for the O's. Baltimore has won 5-of-7 in the series.
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Boston crosses the white lines 19-40 vs. RHP in Fenway? Still, with Arrieta on the hill the 'HIGH' seems the more reasonable assertion. The hurler is a mid-level performer who allowed 5 runs in 5 innings of work last time out, Dempster is a pro. The Orioles Davis is about to rocket up, sooooo....Play on: Boston OVER the total.

Jim Feist

Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers are showing some life, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. They face an Atlanta team that has healthy issues. Josh Smith (knee) did not practice Monday as the Hawks returned to work. Smith was one of several players to miss Saturday's game against the Spurs along with Al Horford, Kyle Korver, Devin Harris and DeShawn Stevenson. The Hawks had eight healthy players in the two-point loss to the Spurs, with Horford (hamstring), Korver (undisclosed), Harris (toe) and Stevenson (back-to-back game) ailing. Coach Drew said he is "hoping" that all his players will be available for Wednesday's game against the 76ers. Atlanta is on a 1-5 ATS run and the Hawks are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings with Philly. Play the 76ers.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays at Texas RangersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Tampa Bay RaysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Matt Moore might be ready to start strutting his outstanding stuff if his first start is an accurate indicator. Moore was kind of a bust last season, and the reason was simple enough. Moore just had way too many games where he could not consistently locate the strike zone. I'm not convinced he has solved the problem, as he walked way too many guys in the spring training games. But in the first real game out of the gate, Moore was superb, so I'm willing to give him a look today. Derek Holland is no cinch himself, and he was okay in his first start. But if Moore is about to break through, there won't be many chances to snare him at underdog odds. It's also a big game for the Rays as they want to avoid getting swept in this series. I'm willing to take a flier on Moore and the Rays at the price today.

SPORTS WAGERSFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay +120 over TEXASFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st five innings. This one is all about putting our money on Matt Moore and it’s for that reason we’ll play it in the first five innings only. Back to Moore in a minute while we look at Derek Holland. Holland’s shoulder fatigue derailed any possibility for growth last season. Blame his ERA spike on 17% hr/f vs. RH bats and unsupportive strand percentage. Holland’s positive BA trend vs. RH confirms he's otherwise making gains but enough to back him as a significant favorite over Matt Moore. In his first start of the year against the struggling Halos, Holland went seven innings and allowed just six hits and one run. That line hides his below the surface numbers, which were a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 30%/35%/35% and that should have Holland backers a bit worried. There were a lot of hard hit balls hit right at people and that played into a fortunate hit % in that start. Also noteworthy is that the Rays are third in the majors with a BA of .297 against southpaws.
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Matt Moore’s rookie campaign looks like a letdown if measured against all the projections and hype, but by most standards it was successful. A sudden spike in Moore’s control was problematic and reminiscent of his pre-2011 work in lower minors. However, an elite strikeout rate, a well-managed workload and health all say "invest" and that’s precisely what we’re doing. Moore was brilliant in his debut, striking out eight while giving up two hits, two walks and not allowing a single run against a pretty decent hitting Indians squad. Pitching at Texas (+33% LHB HR, +19% RHB HR) is no easy task but Moore's high strikeout rate can play anywhere, especially if he continues to limit the free passes. With top-tier raw stuff, Moore is good value when being offered a tag and that applies here.
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ARIZONA -1½ +121 over PittsburghFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Give the Pirates some credit for bouncing back from a rough start then coming in here and taking the first two games of this series. Pittsburgh did some damage to two right-handed starters in Trevor Cahill and Brandon McCarthy but something a little different awaits them here in that they’ll be facing a southpaw. Pittsburgh has six hits in 73 AB’s against lefties this season for a combined BA of .082. They are also 0-3 against left-handers and current Pirates have just seven hits in 33 career AB’s against Wade Miley for a BA of .212. Wiley made significant gains in both his control and strikeout rates last year in his run for NL Rookie of The Year. He was especially tough on LH, who have just 1 HR against him in 196 career AB. Miley threw a six-inning, five-hit, eight strikeouts gem in his first start of the year against the Brewers and in that start his groundball rate was 58%. Wiley has made progressive gains in every month he’s pitched in the majors and his skills are trending towards the elite. In this start, Miley will be involved in a pitching mismatch and it’s in his favor.
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Enter Jonathan Sanchez, who went five innings in his first start against the Dodgers and gave up six hits and three runs. However, this isn’t the Dodgers and this isn’t Dodger Stadium. Sanchez may not go five innings again the rest of the year. Biceps tendinitis plagued Sanchez most, if not all, of the season. Colorado acquired him mid-year in a deal that could not possibly end well. Never a control wizard, he'd now need a 15 k/9 to be viable. Lefties had .857 OPS vs Sanchez, so even a specialist role may not be possible. Sanchez has spent his entire career pitching in spacious, pitcher-friendly home venues in SF and KC. He now moves to a ballpark which enhances scoring by 25%. He lacks a strong GB tendency, as his FB% and GB% are historically relatively equal, as currently reflected in his career 40% FB% and 42% GB%. An 8.07 ERA last year, control issues, two consecutive years of dealing with left biceps tendinitis, a line drive rate of 35% in his first start this year and several other red flags make Sanchez a starter you want to avoid. He’s not lasting five innings today.
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Houston +150 over SEATTLEFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. There was something in the air yesterday as just about every game went over the total and you probably could’ve got about 50,000-1 against the Astros scoring 16 times at Safeco. Thing is, the Astros will be “free-rolling” the entire season because they’re expected to lose about 90% of their games. Houston is loose, they’re loaded with young and enthusiastic players that are just thrilled to be playing at this level and they’re having the time of their lives. Coming off a 16-run outburst, the Astros figure to be just a little extra jacked up to get back into action. Brad Peacock makes his second start of the year after throwing 4.1 innings in Oakland in which the kid didn’t look too bad with a BAA of .188. Though he never posted an ERA under 4.15 prior to the '11 campaign, the 23-year-old has been one of the top pitchers in baseball. He was leading the Double-A Eastern League in wins, ERA, and strikeouts prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Improved and more consistent velocity is one reason for Peacock's success, but it is also the evolution of his secondary stuff and better command. His fastball sits between 89-96 mph and his slider is one of the better breaking pitches in the Astros system. Peacock can pitch up and be subject to HR, but he continues to improve in that regard. Once he hones his changeup, he could become a mainstay in the rotation, potentially as a #2 starter. Peacock posted very good minor league numbers at Syracuse (AAA) 9 games, 5-1, 3.19 ERA, .205 oppBA and has much more upside than his counterpart here, Blake Beavan.
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Blake Beavan pitches about as well as Lindsay Lohan handles her money in Hollywood after a bender. Beavan is the equivalent of batting practice. He rarely strikes out a batter and rarely walks anyone meaning he’s at the mercy of his defense. Beavan’s first start of the year agauinst the South Side was typical in that he walked none struck out two and allowed five runs in five innings. Frankly, that’s all you’re going to get from him. If balls are hit right at fielders, he’ll escape but he’s just as likely to give up three runs in an inning as getting three outs. In 41 games started over the past two years covering 249 innings, Beavan has 109 K’s, which is less than one every two innings. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over that same span was 38%/23%/39%. Beavan is a huge risk and doubly so when spotting a ridiculous price on him like the one here.

Andrew LangeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota at Kansas CityFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last season in Tampa Bay Wade Davis enjoyed a lot of success pitching out of the bullpen. The combination of a starters' command and an increase in velocity resulted in 87 strikeouts and a 2.43 ERA in 70.1 innings of work. Now with the Royals and asked to be a starter, I see Davis as no better than a fringe American League arm (see: 4 IP, 9 hits, 4 ERs in first start at Philadelphia). Keep in mind Davis had shoulder issues during spring training and may need longer to rebuild his stamina. Like Davis, Minnesota's Liam Hendriks isn't going to wow you. His minor league numbers were really good (2.82 ERA in 245.7 innings) but he's struggled at the major league level. The Twins believe he could stick as a starter but after his first outing (4.2 IP, 4 ERs) there are rumblings he could be sent back down. I expect his best effort tonight as the Twins look to avoid the sweep. Value play here as Davis isn't worthy of laying this type of price.

Larry NessFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. Kansas CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Kansas CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Kansas City Royals began the season with two losses while totaling two runs on 12 hits. However, they've won FIVE of six since, with Tuesday's 7-4 victory over the Twins marking their third time with 13 or more hits in the last five games. The team’s 5-3 start is a fry cry from the 12-game losing streak the Royals endured last April (4/11-24). Many felt the Royals would be improved this year and so far, so good. "We're starting to realize we can win," said closer Greg Holland, who earned the save Tuesday. "Last year, we were trying to figure it out mentally as far as being confident day in and day out. Now this team is really confident." Wade Davis gets the start here, after struggling last Friday at Philadelphia, in his first start since 2011. Davis allowed four runs on nine hits and exited down 4-0 after four innings, before the Royals rallied for a 13-4 victory. Davis made 29 starts for the Rays in both 2010 and 2011, winning 12 and 11 games, respectively. However, all 54 appearances for Tampa last year came in relief but he posted an impressive 2.43 ERA, allowing just 48 hits in 70.1 innings with 87 Ks. Those numbers have KC giving him a chance to start this year (he was acquired in the trade for James Shields) and let’s note that Davis is 15-12 with a 3.44 ERA over 63 career home appearances (all with Tampa). Davis has no excuse not winning here, facing Minnesota’s Liam Hendriks. Hendriks made 20 starts in 2011 and 2012 for the Twins, going 1-10 with a 5.88 ERA (team was 6-14). He lasted 4.2 innings in his first start of 2013, Friday at Baltimore, allowing eight hits and four ERs in getting a no decision in Minnesota’s 9-5 loss. Hendriks is 0-1 with a 7.24 ERA in three starts vs Kansas City and is now 1-10 in 21 career starts overall for the Twins, who are 6-15 in those games. KC gets the home sweep!