Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday April, 11

SPORTS WAGERS

NHL SERIES

Ottawa +193 over N.Y. RANGERS

The Senators are not going to be an easy out. They have deep scoring, good speed, and enough grit to match the Rangers' toughness. New York's been making a lot of mistakes down the stretch and they’re not in good form, as they’ve lost three of its last four with a chance to clinch the President’s trophy. The Rangers are an offensively challenged group that scored two goals or less in seven of their last 13 games and that’s not the way you want to come into the playoffs. Ottawa has been written off many times this year. They were written off before the season began. They were written off as a fluke 25 games in and all they kept on doing was winning games. Don’t write this team off. They’re good and they can challenge the Rangers in this series. Sens better balanced team with more weapons than the Blue Shirts. Yes, the Rangers are better defensively but Ottawa is capable of playing different styles and could be in New York’s kitchen after beating them rather handily in the season series 3-1 and outscoring them, 14-8. This is going to be a long series and the Sens are going to give this prohibitive favorite a big run for their money. Play: Ottawa +193 (Risking 1 unit).

FLORIDA +167 over New Jersey

This is a series everyone assumes the Devils are going to win but we’re not as convinced, as Florida is truly a team with nothing to lose. "We're going in loose," GM Dale Tallon said Sunday. "Everyone's waiting for the other shoe to drop, but we're going to have some fun with this." While the Devils seem to hold a significant edge in terms of the firepower up front, there are still questions about the blue line. They have been without their best defenseman, Henrik Tallinder, for the last half of the season and blood clotting issues look to keep him out of the playoffs. No defenseman had more than four goals. While the addition of Marek Zidlicky at the trade deadline added a little oomph to the blue line, the reality is the Devils won't get much help from the back end when it comes to offense. The Panthers, by comparison, are downright dynamic on the back end. Led by Brian Campbell, who finished tied for second among all defensemen with 53 points and second among defensemen with 49 assists, the Panthers' blue line is crucial to generating offense. Jason Garrison enjoyed a breakout year with 16 goals, third among defensemen. Dmitry Kulikov, who had 27 points, is another weapon from the back end. In a series that figures to be tight, production from the blue line, or lack thereof, might be a deciding factor. Lastly, we’ve been suggesting all year that Marty Brodeur is a big liability and we’re not about to change our tune now. He’s allowed an inordinate amount of soft goals and could easily cost the Devils this series. The price, the lack of pressure, the much stronger goaltending and defense make the Panthers very appealing taking back a tag like this with home ice advantage. Play: Florida +167 (Risking 1 unit).

Los Angeles +189 over VANCOUVER

There are no easy draws in the Western Conference and the President's Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks certainly didn't get one with the eighth-seeded Los Angeles Kings. This one could come down to goaltending and in that regard we’ll gladly take our chances with L.A at +189. The Kings finished second only to the St. Louis as the stingiest team in the league, allowing only 2.07 goals per game thanks in large part to Vezina Trophy candidate Jonathan Quick. Goals have been hard to come by this season for the Kings but one can point to their final stretch of the season to prove they've gotten over that problem. The Kings scored 54 goals in their 18 games through March and April, good for an average of three goals per game, which would rank them among the league leaders had they done that all year long. This is a more comfortable team up front than it was three months ago. These aren't exactly the same bunch of Canucks that got pushed around by the Boston Bruins in last year's Cup finals. Since that fateful series in June, the Canucks have added the likes of Dale Weise, Zack Kassian, David Booth, Samuel Pahlsson and Marc-Andre Gragnani. All around, this is the most depth the Canucks have probably ever had in their history but the absence of team leader and point-getter Daniel Sedin will be felt. This is certainly a tough matchup for both teams but the tag on the Kings makes them very worthy of a wager. Play: Los Angeles +189 (Risking 2 units).

NASHVILLE -111 over Detroit

Line opened with the Predators being -125 favorite. It’s been bet down because the Wings have the pedigree and popularity to attract money. That works in our favor and we’ll gladly step in. Nashville enters this series healthier, younger and more poised to advance. They won six of eight games down the stretch and allowed one goal or less in all six wins. Detroit was held to two goals or less in 12 of its last 17 games. Pekka Rinne is as good as any goaltender in the league while Red Wings goalie Jimmy Howard has been injured often in final two months and has not looked the same. Earning the No. 4 seed was crucial for the Predators, especially considering Detroit's struggles on the road this season. Nobody in the league had as big a swing when it came to success at home versus winning on the road. At Joe Louis Arena, the Red Wings carved a spot in the NHL record books with their home win streak. Yet, on the road they were just 17-21-3 including losses in three of its last four home games. Either way, an extremely talented team will be out after one round. Detroit's road struggles are a concern and Nashville's loud building isn't the best place to try to resolve them. The Predators have the best shutdown D pair in hockey, more depth up front, better special teams and a slight edge in goal that could potentially turn into a big edge. This is a first round underlay. Play: Nashville -111 (Risking 2.22 units to win 2).

Ben Burns

Los Angeles @ Vancouver
PICK: Los Angeles +1.5

As indicated by this O/U line currently sitting at 5u40, goals are likely going to be fairly hard to come by in this series. With goals at a premium, getting an extra +1.5 goals to work with, can prove extremely valuable.

Looking at the regular season seres and we find that three of the four games were decided by a single goal. The most recent meeting saw Vancouver win by a score of 1-0. Prior to that, LA won 3-2 and 4-1. The first meeting saw the Canucks win by a score of 3-2. So, despite being the league's top regular season team, the Canucks failed to defeat the Kings by more than a goal in any of the four meetings.

Of course, given that the Kings allow an average of only 2.2 goals per game, its often hard to beat them by a wide margin.

The Canucks have seen eight of their past 10 games decided by a single goal. In fact, looking back further finds that ONLY three of Vancouver's last 22 games have resulted in Canuck victories of more than a single goal.

The Kings are only 3-4 their last seven. However, ALL four of those losses came by a single goal. Going back further finds the Kings at 9-5 their last 14 - only one of those 14 games resulted in a loss of more than a goal.

There's a lot of pressure on the home team - particularly a #1 seed - in the opening game of a series. The longer the Canucks go without scoring and/or allow the Kings to remain in the game, the more that pressure builds. That can cause a team to start squeezing their sticks a little too tightly. Conversely, the Kings should be loose. Nobody is expecting them to win this series.

Given all the above, I feel the steep price on the +1.5 puck-line option is actually quite reasonable. Consider LA +1.5.

NHL Predictions

Series - Phoenix Coyotes +110

The Coyotes finished with 4 fewer points than the Blackhawks, but took 1st in the Pacific division to secure them 3rd spot in the Western Conference and home ice advantage. The Coyotes have won 5 straight games heading into the playoffs, while the Blackhawks finished the season with three straight games going to shootout and a 1-2 record in those games (both losses came to Minnesota). Take note that these two teams have met 4 times this season, with Phoenix winning 3 of the 4. The Coyotes took both games in Chicago 4-3 and 4-1, and they split games in Phoenix with Chicago winning the first meeting in October 5-2 and the Coyotes winning the latest 3-0 with Mike Smith stopping 38 of 38 shots against. Speaking about Mike Smith, he has been unbelievable to close out the season. Smith has won 5 straight games in which he allowed just 2 goals against. Three straight shutouts all included 38 or more shots against per game. Phoenix has home ice advantage, a hotter goaltender, and advantage in the season series. I like the price we're getting on the Coyotes.

Series - Ottawa Senators +195

Despite being a #1 vs #8 match up this one should be closer than the oddsmakers have it. The Senators had a good 21-14-6 road record and should be able to give the Rangers some troubles in New York. These two teams met 4 times this season with Ottawa taking 3 of the 4 meetings. In October the Sens beat New York 5-4 in shootout, before losing 3-2 in Ottawa in November. The Senators then went back into New York to win 3-0 in January and more recently meat the Rangers at home 4-1 in March. The Senators scored 2.96 goals per game this season compared to 2.71 for the Rangers. New York has a big edge in net, allowing just 2.2 goals against per game compared to 2.88 for the Sens, but I believe that Craig Anderson could step up for Ottawa. Anderson is 33-22-6 on the season with a 2.83 GAA and .914 SV%. Note that for whatever reason the Senators play well in New York historically, going 21-6 in their last 27 meetings in New York. If the Senators tighten up defensively I think they will match up well with New York and we are getting a great price here. Take the Sens to win this series.

Marc Lawrence

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

When Joe Saunders toes the slab for the Diamondbacks against Cory Leubke and the Padres Wednesday Saunders will take the mound knowing he is 3-0 with a microscopic 0.37 ERA in his last three team starts against San Diego. On the flip side Leubke is winless in all three of his career team starts during the month of April. With that look for Leubke to drop his 4th straight home team start here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona.

Jim Feist

Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trailblazers
Pick: Portland Trailblazers

Golden State is 10-18 on the road and one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, allowing 100.6 ppg -- 27th overall and 29th in rebounding. The Warriors packed it in Monday in a 123-84 loss at Denver, so stick a fork in 'em.Portland plays its best basketball at home and the Blazers are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. This is the second of a three-game home stand for Portland and they look to bounce back after a loss to Houston as chalk. The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Play the Blazers!

Hollywood Sports

Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators
Prediction: Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings (48-28-3-3) were once #1 in the NHL in total points but they limped down the stretch with just a 7-11-4 mark. Some may take those numbers and conclude that Detroit lacks "playoff "momentum" -- but that is easily rectified by a win on the road in the playoffs. The Red Wings are riddled with injuries over the last month which better explains their poor play down the stretch. This veteran team owns the longest consecutive playoff streak in the NHL and they know full well that entering the playoffs healthy is more important than seeding or notions of momentum. Detroit is a decisive 56-20-1 in their last 77 games played with at least three days of rest in-between contests. And the Red Wings haven 20 of their last 27 Western Conference Quarterfinal contests. Ten players on their roster own Stanley Cup rings. Perhaps more importantly for playoff hockey, Detroit was 3rd in the NHL by taking 54.3% of the shots attempted in close games this season when both teams were at full strength. Nashville (48-26-3-5), on the other hand, took only 46.1% of the shots in close games at even strength this season which as the second worst mark in the league. The Predators' struggles to control the puck is not a good recipe for playing successful hockey in the playoffs. Only Hal Gill has lifted up the Stanley Cup as champion on this team that has seen an influx of plenty of blue-chip rookies after their Western Conference Semifinal appearance last year. But with Ryan Suter a free agent this offseason, there are extremely high expectations in Nashville that this is the most important postseason in their franchise's history. That is a tremendous amount of pressure for a team so lacking in deep playoff experience. The opportunity to take Detroit as a small underdog in this opening contest offers very nice value relative to the situation. Take the Red Wings with the money line in this one.

Rob Vinciletti

Phoenix Suns vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Phoenix Suns +5.5

Memphis qualifies in a negative system that has won 16 of 20 times playing against rested home favorites of 5 or more that scored 90 or more and shot 455 or higher from the field, vs an opponent that scored 110 or more as a road favorite of 4 or less. The Suns have covered 5 of 6 here in April and have been a hot shooting team of late going over 50% back to back games. When they have been made a road dog of 3.5 to 6 they have won straight up 3 of 4 times. Memphis has failed to cover 3 of the last 4 times at home when the total is 195 to 200. Look for the Suns to scorch the Grizzlies. Take Phoenix.

Bryan Power

Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
PICK: Pittsburgh Penguins

The Stanley Cup Playoffs commence Wednesday evening and the latest odds have the Penguins, despite being a 4-seed, as the betting favorite at 7/2. This is clearly not your 'typical' 4-seed though. Pittsburgh finished with 108 points on the season, just one behind East leading New York and one could make an arguement that no team in the league was hotter down the stretch. In fact, the Pens have the best record in the league since January 1st. Plus, and most importantly, Sidney Crosby is back. Pittsburgh comes into the playoffs as the top-scoring team in the league. Emotions will be high for this in-state series considering the number of fights that took place in a recent regular season meeting a couple of weeks back. I see Pittsburgh defending home ice here in Game 1.

Sean Murphy

Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Seattle Mariners

There's no better time to hop on board the PADDY WAGON as Sean is enjoying a RED HOT 5-2 run on the NBA hardwood over the L4 days, and is ready to settle into a groove on the diamond following a winning Tuesday. He has SIX best bets lined up in MLB action on Wednesday, and the action starts EARLY! Grab a monthly subscription and gain FULL ACCESS to all of Murph's winners for less than $15/day!

Kevin Millwood isn't getting much respect from the oddsmakers as he prepares to face his former team on Wednesday. I'm willing to give him and the Mariners a shot at a price north of +200.

Millwood's 2011 season was cut short by injury, but he had been pitching well, going 4-3 with a 3.98 ERA through nine starts with the Colorado Rockies. Some of his best years came as a member of the Texas Rangers, and he's more than comfortable pitching here at the Ballpark in Arlington. As tough as the Rangers are, I do see this as a favorable spot for Millwood to make his return to the mound.

It's not as if the Mariners have been completely outclassed in this series. They led by as many as four runs on Monday night, and lost by a narrow 1-0 margin on Tuesday.

Colby Lewis will get the call for the Rangers. He's only managed to post a 2-2 team record in his last four starts against the Mariners, and his most recent win against them came in a game where he allowed six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. While Lewis has posted double-digit victories in each of the last two seasons, he's also lost 23 games, while posting an ERA north of four.

I don't believe the Rangers hold enough of an advantage on the mound to warrant the hefty pricetag tonight. We'll take a shot with a gritty Mariners team that has managed to split its first six games this season.

Dave Cokin

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani Gallardo was horrendous in his 2012 debut but I expect a much better result from him here. Ryan Dempster did very well in his first effort for the Cubs but he'll have his work cut out against this lineup and the Cubs can't count on their awful pen to do the job even if they happen to be ahead late. Milwaukee is the choice today.

EZWINNERS

Chicago Cubs +111

The Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster was in line for the win on Opening Day, but the bullpen blew it for him. Dempster struck out 10 in the opener against the Nationals, giving up just two hits over seven and 2/3 innings of work. I expect another strong outing from Dempster in this game against Milwaukee. Dempster is 15-5 in his career against the Brewers and I look for that success to continue with a little help from his offense. The Brewers starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo did not look good on opening day against the Cardinals as he allowed four home runs and didn't get out of the fourth inning. I look for the Cubbies to give Dempster the run support that he needs in this one. Play on Chicago.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +114 over CINCINNATI

12:35 PM EST. It’s only six games in but the Cardinals are 5-1 and batting a collective .310 while the Reds are 2-3 and batting a collective .201. Jaime Garcia is coming off a nice start in Milwaukee in which he went six full, allowing just two runs on five hits. It was a typical start for Garcia, who saw his ERA climb a little bit last year but skill wise, we saw an improvement over his stellar rookie year. Garcia maintained a strong strikeout rate and a high groundball rate of 53%. Combined last season with his first start this year and there is no reason to believe that his growth won’t continue. Johnny Cueto was arguably one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball last year. The skills say that we should lower our expectations for 2012. A three-year trend of WHIP improvement and an increased number of ground balls is attractive, but not when it is accompanied with a three year strikeout rate decline, it loses its appeal. A close look at the ERA/xERA (2.31/3.57) differential along with a fortunate hr/f shows his risk is high. Don't bet on the same results for 2012. That’s not to say Cueto can’t succeed. Every team would love to have this guy but he’s just not as good as those numbers from a year ago suggest. Taking back a tag, the red-hot Cardinals get the call. Play: St. Louis +114 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco -118 over COLORADO

Go figure. The Giants start the season 0-3 with Tim Lincecum, Madsion Bumgarner and Matt Cain starting. Subsequently, they win their first game with Barry Zito starting and that’s what it took to get them going. We now step in on a pitching mismatch and an underlay to go with it. Lincecum allowed six hits and five runs in 5.1 innings in his season debut but so what. He was unlucky in that some balls found holes and that’s all there is to it. He actually pitched fantastic without the results. Lincecum struck out seven batters and walked just one. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio in that game was 63%/6%/31% and those are numbers that will win you 20 games plus. Jeremy Guthrie won his first start but don’t count on too many more wins from this stiff. In his season debut against Houston, Guthrie walked three and struck out one and posted an xERA of 5.09. Guthrie has shown poor skills for years and now at the age of 33, he’s taking his act to Coors Field. This is a disaster waiting to happen and it likely begins here. Win or lose, this is a cheap price to be paying for this mismatch. Play: San Francisco -118 (Risking 2.36 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

ADDED NHL SERIES PLAY

Washington +183 over BOSTON

Every year the Capitals are big favorites to win round one and every year they’re one of the favorites to reach the finals. Does playing the significant underdog role allow the Caps to play with more emotional freedom? Certainly top players like Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom and Captain Alex Ovechkin have not fared well under the spotlight of expectation in the playoffs but the Caps have some things working in their favor. Stanley Cup champs have a history of bowing out early the next year because of fatigue and the grueling toll of playing well into June the previous year. It’s also worth noting that Washington beat Boston three out of four times this season. The real kicker is that the Caps are healthy, Ovechkin has his center back and with Backstrom, Green, Ovechkin and Semin all playing in the same game this season, Washington is 11-1. When discussing this series, one has to consider the goaltending situation. With veteran Tomas Vokoun out with a groin injury and Michal Neuvirth on the mend, it looks like the Game 1 start will go to rookie Braden Holtby. Holtby has been solid in relief this season, going 4-2-1, including a win in New York on Saturday that denied the Rangers the Presidents' Trophy. He is 14-4-3 with three shutouts in his NHL career but is without any playoff experience at the NHL level. The 22-year-old has proved himself to be remarkably poised and confident in his brief exposure to NHL play. If he can summon his inner Ken Dryden, this series could be closer than most expect. Tim Thomas is probably not too happy about drawing the Capitals after he refused to visit the White House. Funny, isn’t it, how that works out? Thomas is erratic. His unorthodox style of flopping around has gotten him into many precarious situations and while he can shine, it’s also difficult to have a lot of faith in him. With all the pressure on the B’s, the Caps come into this series in a complete role reversal than previous years in more ways than one. No longer do they play a free-wheeling open style and nor are they expected to win. With a tag like this, it’s worth the risk to see if the Caps can finally thrive in the playoffs. Play: Washington +183 (Risking 2 units).

Steve Janus

Milwaukee Bucks -4½

The Bucks come into tonight's game trailing the Knicks by one game for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference. Both teams have really turned it on down the stretch. New York has won 11 of their last 15 while Milwaukee has cashed in 13 of their last 18 overall. While the Knicks won the last meeting 89-80 on their home floor, Milwaukee leads the season series 2-1.

This is a huge game for both teams, as their playoff lives could very well depend on the outcome of this game. My money is on the Bucks to not only win, but to win by at least 5-points. Most of New York's success has come on at home. They are just 10-18 straight up and 11-17 ATS on the road this season.

A huge factor that you can't overlook is the fact that the Knicks just played at Chicago last night. It's hard enough to bounce back with a lot of intensity in the second of a back-to-back road set, but it's even harder when you play such a big game the night before. I look for the Bucks to play with a lot more energy in front of their home crowd.

Milwaukee will also be motivated from am embarrassing 89-109 loss at home to the Thunder on Monday. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.