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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday April, 11

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Jack Jones

New Orleans Hornets -3

I've been fading the Sacramento Kings with quite a bit of success of late. Sacramento is now just 2-10 SU & 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall. This team certainly appears to have packed it in with just eight games remaining.

After playing the defending champion Dallas Mavericks last night, the Kings will have a hard time getting up emotionally to face the New Orleans Hornets. Plus, Sacramento will be very tired as this is the second of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days, and their 7th game in 10 days.

New Orleans has shown that they are going to continue to fight. This has been a great team to back in recent weeks as the Hornets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. That includes recent home wins over the Nuggets and Timberwolves, and a 2-point loss to the Lakers within their last four games.

After losing their first three meetings of this season series with the Kings, New Orleans will certainly be out for revenge in this one to avoid the sweep. The Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Bet New Orleans Wednesday.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 10:20 am
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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Boston/ Toronto Under 8: Last night I had the over in this game, but that pick was mostly due to the fact that there was crappy pitching on the mound and not because these teams have been hitting all that well. Today, crappy pitching will not be an issue. Ricky Romero had a rough showing in his opener and he does have an ERA of 7.12 in his career vs Boston, But Ricky has normally been solid in the beginning of the year with a 2.93 ERA in March/ April, plus he has always pitched well at home with a career 3.47 ERA at the Rogers Centre. Jon Lester did not have a rough opener as he allowed just 1 ER in 7 innings to a powerful Detroit team. Jon has always pitched well vs tghe Jays, with a 3.06 ERA in 18 career starts vs them, including a 3.33 ERA in 11 starts here. Both offenses are struggling right now and theyu will not get going vs these tough pitchers today. I expect no more than 6 runs in this one.

Kansas City +118 over OAKLAND: The A's are 2-4 on the year, but 1 of their wins were vs Seattle overseas and their other was vs a KC team that had just come off BB upset road wins over the Angels. This is not a good team and will reside in the bottom of the AL West all year long. They really got rid of alot of talent over the Winter and will be paying for it this summer, even when they get Manny Ramirez. The A's do have some pitching, but they just cant hit. they come in hitting just .205 and have scored just 1 total run in the two games vs the Royals so far. Today they face Bruce Chen, who is 2-2 with a 4.85 in his last 5 starts vs the A's, but who also had a good showing in his opener vs the Halos, in which he allowed 0 ER on just 3 hits in 6 innings of work to a much, much stronger (than the A's) Halo's offense. He should have a good showing vs this popgun attack of the A's. The KC offense has not been all that good in the early going, but they are a very talented group and should be able to do damage vs McCarthy, who is 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA in 2 starts vs them. The Royal are the much better offensive team in this one and they have a very solid starter on the mound that can keep the A's off the board. Look for the Royals to take the rubber match here.

2 UNIT PLAY

CINCINNATI -128 over St Louis: The Cards are really proving that they do not need Albert, as they have come out and hit .306 and have scored 5.7 rpg in the early going, on their way to a 5-1 mark, butthe Reds are still a very good team and they will fight very hard today to avoid a 3 game home sweep. Johnny Cueto gets the ball for the Reds and he had a nice opening game, in which he pitched 7 shutout innings vs Miami to get a 4-0 win. Johnny really looks ready to be the ace of this staff. Cueto has not pitched great vs the Cards, while Garcia has done a fine job vs the Reds, but this game is very important to Cincinnati and I feel they will shut down the Cards offense, while their own offense wakes up enough to get the win.

1 UNIT PLAY

Milwaukee -121 over CHICAGO: Ryan Dempster has always pitched well vs the Brewers, as he is 15-5 with a solid 2.75 ERA overall, including a 10-3 mark with a 2.96 ERA in his last 17 starts vs them, but Gallardo is 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA vs Chicago, plus the Brewers have a big edge offensively as well. They should complete the sweep here.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 10:21 am
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Vegas Experts

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
Play: Atlanta Hawks

Huge scheduling edge goes to the visitors here as Atlanta has enjoyed the last three days off since drubbing Charlotte 116-96 on Saturday. It was the Hawks' third straight win and they've got revenge here for a three-point loss last month at home to the Celtics, who played and won last night in Miami. Boston is not a good team when playing without rest, having gone 11-25 ATS in that role since the start of last year. Grab the points.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 10:24 am
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JEFF BENTON

Your Wednesday freebie is the Phoenix Suns as the road underdog at Memphis.

Both teams have been tearing it up down the backstretch, but Phoenix still finds themselves on the outside of the playoff fence looking in.

Memphis comes into this home game with a three game winning streak and straight up wins in six of their last seven games to take over the #5 spot in the West standings. The problem for the Grizzlies is their 3-8 spread mark their last eleven games played against teams from the Pacific Division.

Phoenix has presented matchup problems for Memphis of late, as the Suns have won and covered both meetings this year against the Grizzlies, and they have been able to win four of the last six series showdowns overall versus Memphis.

The Suns come into this game having won their last pair of games, and five of their last six both straight up and against the spread, and they are on a 19-7 spread run overall their past 26 games.

Points work tonight as Phoenix keeps the heat on in the West.

4♦ PHOENIX

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 10:52 am
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SCOTT DELANEY

My complimentary winner is going to be the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Diego Padres. I want you listing both pitchers - Joe Saunders and Cory Luebke - as my money is on Arizona's crafty southpaw to keep the Friars at bay.

Saunders, who re-signed with the D-backs in January as a free agent after the team non-tendered him in December, will be making his season debut in this one. Over 33 starts last season, and more than 200 innings, this guy has proven to be one of the most reliable starters in baseball over the last four seasons. Saunders can chew up innings in the back of the rotation.

Last season he compiled a 3.69 ERA, and along the way dominated the Padres, going 3-1 with a 1.47 ERA in four starts.

On the flipside, Luebke comes into this one after struggling in his first start of the season, allowing five earned runs on nine hits over 4-2/3 innings in a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Luebke couldn't seem to command his fastball, which was too far up in the zone. Something tells me he'll make early mistakes once again, and will let the Diamondbacks get the jump in this one.

Take the road pup here.

1♦ ARIZONA

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 10:52 am
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CHRIS JORDAN

I'm not afraid of laying the chalk with this freebie today, as I believe in Justin Masterson after seeing him in his season debut last week against Toronto. He looked incredibly strong, stifling the Blue Jays to just one run while scattering a mere two hits over eight innings. The sinkerballer created 11 outs via ground balls, fanned 10 and walked just one, but ultimately left with a no-decision for his effort. That's one helluva showing to come away without a win.

Something tells me with this one being so early, he's going to try to get this one done on his own, using his low-to mid-90’s fastball and that wide-lateral breaker to dominate Chicago's lineup. He also uses an effective slider that runs away from righties. Believe it or not, his secondary pitches helped him finish second in allowing the fewest home runs per nine innings (11 in 216) in the American League.

Masterson, who had surgery on the labrum in his non-throwing shoulder in October, but is clearly 100 percent at this point, is in after enjoying what was easily his best season to date. He came into the season as the team’s No.2 starter behind Ubaldo Jiminez, but there are signs that tell me is better.

I'm just going to list him, and will ignore Chicago's John Danks, as this one is all about Masterson dominating the South Siders.

2♦ CLEVELAND

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 10:52 am
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CHUCK O'BRIEN

Your free winner today is also a total, as I'm playing the Motown matinee under with Tampa Bay's James Shields visiting Detroit's Justin Verlander. And this will be a pitching showdown, one that could end up a 1-0 game.

Shields arrives in Detroit after producing a five-inning performance against the Yankees, an outring that snapped his streak of 11 straight starts of seven innings or more -- the longest active streak in the Major Leagues. That'll be the driving force for him today, in wanting to last much longer and finish the job today. Confidence will be brewing, as he's 2-0 in three career starts at Comerica Park.

Verlander, meanwhile, pitched eight scoreless innings and struck out seven last Thursday, but here's the catch, he watched his would-be first Opening Day win ruined by Jose Valverde's first blown save since 2010. He, too, will be looking to finish the job and will be performing at his best, coming off his best April outing ever.

Look for a pitchers' duel in this one, and this one to stay low.

2♦ UNDER

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 10:52 am
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MLB Predictions

Houston Astros +113

The Atlanta Braves picked up their first win of the season yesterday with a 6-4 win over Houston as -170 favorites with Tommy Hanson on the mound. Atlanta has started the season 1-4, while the Houston Astros are now 3-2. Randall Delgado will get his first start of the season tonight after making the Braves rotation after a shaky spring. Delgado pitched 21.2 innings in spring and had a 7.89 ERA, with 23 strikeouts and 12 walks. His 7 starts last season with Atlanta is what won him the job, as he went 1-1 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .220 opponents batting average. The Astros have Wandy Rodriguez on the mound who is getting his second start of the season. Wandy pitched 6.1 innings in the Astros home opener allowing 6 hits and 3 runs (none of which were earned runs). The Braves are struggling with the bats to start the season as they are hitting just .193 as a team and .157 against lefties. Houston is hitting .269 as a team. Also take note that the Astros bullpen has been better than the Braves with a 3.65 ERA and 1.05 WHIP compared to the Braves bullpen with a 4.32 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. Take note that in Rodriquez' last 5 home starts vs the Braves the Astros are 4-1. Yesterday we went against a good young pitcher on the road in his first start of the season in the afternoon game and we are going to do it again today backing the more experienced pitcher at home in his second start of the season. Take the Astros at a good underdog price tonight.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 11:23 am
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WUNDERDOG

Detroit at Nashville
Pick: Detroit +115

The Detroit Red Wings certainly have playoff experience. This is a club that has been in the playoffs since the 1989-90 season and some of the NHL players were not born the last time the Red Wings failed to make the playoffs. They have won four Stanley Cups during the streak and are poised for another deep run. Many will look at their 5-12 finish and think this team is ready for a quick exit, but remember last year, when they closed in similar fashion at 9-13 over their last 22 and then proceeded to sweep Phoenix in four straight games, scoring 18 times in the process. Nashville, at 16-13 over their last 29, isn't exactly burning up the ice themselves. The Red Wings enter this one at 56-20-3 off three days rest and have been money in the quarterfinals at 20-7 in their last 27. Play on Detroit.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 12:05 pm
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Kyle Hunter

Brewers vs. Cubs
Play: Under 7½

Both Ryan Dempster and Yovani Gallardo have good numbers against their opponent in this game. The wind will be blowing straight in from center at about 10 mph today, and the temperature will be in the upper 40's. This isn't weather conducive to many long balls. Lance Barksdale is the umpire here, and he called more strikes than any other umpire in 2011. I like the value on the under.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 12:14 pm
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Freddy Wills

Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros

Wandy Rodriguez deserves to be here right now he went 6.1 IP while giving up 0 ER on opening day and now has a 2.69 ERA over the last 3 years at home where he's always dominated. Speaking of domination that is exactly what he's done against the Braves. Over his last 6 starts he posts a 1.66 ERA and when he's faced them at home he's been even more dominating posting a 0.66 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP over his last 4. The Braves have had their own struggles this year and last year vs. LHP.

The Braves last year were 29th with a .642 OPS vs. LHP and so far this year they have been terrible with a .434 OPS good for 27th while their overall OPS is not much better at just .511. I don't think that changes with the domination that Rodriguez has on Atlanta and at home. Atlanta sends Delgado to the mound an unproven starter with just 7 starts last year and the Astros have been at least hitting the ball with a .783 OPS thus far. Braves now 6-16 in their last 22 on the road after Tuesday night's win.

Notable Hot Starters:
Jaime Garcia (2.08 ERA Last April) (3GS vs. CIN LY w/1.42 ERA)
Johny Cueto (2.01 ERA Day Last Year) (1.38 ERA at home) (2.60 ERA w/ 1.12 WHIP vs. STL over 4GS LY)
Roy Halladay (8 IP 0ER 1st GS) (Last Year - 2.48 ERA home, 2.14 April)
Justin Masterson (4GS vs. CHW 1.61 ERA)
Jon Lester (7 IP 1 ER 1st Start & 2.52 ERA Last April) (2.08 ERA 5GS vs. TOR last year)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
The cold starter of the day for us is going to be Joe Saunders despite his 5.93 ERA last year he was actually good with a 3.14 ERA during his road games and even more importantly he dominated the Padres who struggle big time vs. LHP. He had 4 starts and a 1.47 ERA vs. the Padres. Padres start Luebke for the second time and he had a 5.14 ERA last April and over 3 starts vs. the Dbacks had a 5.50 ERA. Justin Upton alone is 5-10 with 3 HR off him.

Notable Cold Starters:
Ricky Romero (7.12 ERA in 13 GS Last 3 Year vs. Boston) (4ER in 5 IP @ Cleveland on Opening Day)
Yovani Gallardo (6ER on Opening Day) (6.23 ERA April and 4.05 ERA away last year)

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 12:15 pm
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King Creole

Sacramento Kings +3

My dog Speedee and the gang will be playing on another 'no-rest' Underdog on Wednesday night. And under the right conditions, these dogs have been like money in the bank in the 2011/2012 season. Speedee's master (King) has been playing these canines regularly as of late. It sometimes requires one to 'hold their nose' when making their play (like wins on the Wizards... Warriors... Pistons... and Bucks).

4-16 ATS this season: All Conference home favorites in a '1/0' REST situation (Hornets) versus any opponent playing off BB SUATS losses (like the KINGS). These home favs have gone 1-0 ATS when playing off an ATS win in their last game (New Orleans lost BUT covered vs the Lakers on Monday).

When two teams with crappy overall winning percentages play each other... we want to ALWAYS look to play on the Underdog.
4-15 ATS this season: All < .400 non-division Conference home favs (Hornets) versus another < .400 opponent (KINGS). These teams have gone 1-8 ATS when favored by a 'short' -5 points or LESS.

New Orleans' last two games have been a SU home loss BUT ATS win (vs the Lakers) ... and a SU home DOG win (vs the T'Wolves).
1-8 ATS this year: All NBA teams playing off a SU home loss BUT an ATS win... and a SU home UNDERDOG win (New Orleans).

The Sacramento Kings enter tonight's game on a 5-game SU and ATS losing streak.
22-5 ATS last 3 seasons: All non-division underdogs of +5 < points playing of 5 or more SU losses in a row (KINGS) vs any opponent off a SU loss (hornets). These teams have gone 13-2 ATS on the ROAD.

This is a series in which Sacramento has DOMINATED. The KINGS have already gone a PERFECT 3-0 ATS vs the Hornets this season, with an average winning margin of +8.3 points per game. In the last 16 meetings between these two teams, the Kings have gone 14-2 ATS overall.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 12:16 pm
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Tony George

NY Knicks +4.5

The Brewers laying points here but I like the Knicks, off a loss at Chicago last night, and a 2 hour bus trip up I-94 to Milwaukee here. Milwaukee has been decent as of late but wins at home over Charlotte, Cleveland, Atlanta and Portland do not impress me. At home in their last 10 games they played 2 teams that were any good, and they lost both of them to Memphis and Indiana. The Knicks playing good defense and should contain the backcourt of the Bucks and I will drink the koolaid here and the take the points with NY. The Knicks just 2-12 ATS in this series the last 14, that trend is due to change tonight.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 12:18 pm
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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

SAN ANTONIO -9.5 over LA Lakers: (Google News Play) The Lakers will be without Kobe and in their last games they nearly lost to a bad hornets team with out him. Now they must go on the road and take on a Spurs team that is 23-4 SU and 19-7-1 ATS at home this year, and their big 3 (Duncan, Parker and Ginobili) all DNP play in their last game (Rest), so they will be fresh for this one. The Spurs have won 8 straight at home and they are 7-0-1 ATS in those games, winning each one by 10+ points. The Spurs have put up 112.7 ppg, during their home win streak and that is not good news for a Lakers squad that will be missing the league's top scorer in this one, especially since they already score just 95.6 ppg on the road. Also not good news for the Lakers is their struggles at the defense end of late as they come in allowing 104.6 ppg in their last 5 games. The Spurs have outscored their opponents by 11.4 ppg at home overall and without much offense (or defense) i just don't see that changing in this one. Spurs by at least 12 here.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 12:19 pm
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Lenny Del Genio

New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

Big game in the Eastern Conference playoff picture w/ the Bucks chasing the Knicks for the final spot by one game. They are 9-1 ATS/8-2 SU vs. New York L10 head to head meetings, including 2-1 this season and they are catching the Knickerbockers in the second night of back to backs after a big TV game against the Bulls. Losing to Chicago when they were w/ out Derrick Rose is not a good sign for the visitors here. Milwaukee is an astounding 36-9 ATS L45 games against Atlantic Division foes. Take Milwaukee.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 12:19 pm
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