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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday April, 11

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Larry Ness

Philadelphia Phillies -136

The Miami Marlins opened the 2012 with a new baseball-only stadium and a re-tooled team (signed SS Jose Reyes, LHP Mark Buehrle and closer Heath Bell) which brought hope to South Beach. However, the team's "mojo" has been squashed by manager Ozzie Guillen's controversial comments regarding his praising of Cuba's Fidel Castro. The Marlins will be without their skipper after suspending him for five games, starting with tonight's game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. This contest features a matchup of two of the NL's most highly-praised hurlers, Miami's Josh Johnson and Philadelphia's Roy Halladay. Johnson has gotten the better of Halladay, going 2-1 with a 0.65 ERA in the last four matchups. Johnson has pitched very well at Citizens Bank Park, going 4-0 with a 1.87 ERA in five starts and six total appearances. However, Halladay has put up strong numbers despite a 1-3 record when facing Johnson, posting a 1.74 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 31 innings.Let me note that his lone victory was a perfect game on May 29, 2010, when he struck out 11 in a 1-0 victory in which the Phillies scored their run on an error. Johnson was limited to just nine games in 2011 and got off to a rough start in his season-opening loss against St Louis last Wednesday, allowing three runs in the first two innings, before settling down to get through six innings. He allowed three runs on 10 hits in the 4-1 defeat, striking out four and walking two while throwing 91 pitches. In 14 career games (12 starts) against the Phillies, Johnson is 5-3 with a 3.16 ERA (team is 7-5). In contrast, Halladay was nearly unhittable in Pittsburgh on Opening Day, allowing just two first-inning singles over eight scoreless frames in Philadelphia's 1-0 win. He has two complete games in his career against Miami, going 4-3 with a 2.51 in 10 starts against the Marlins overall (teams are 5-5). I realize that Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are both on the disabled list to open the season but it's been a rough couple of days for this Marlins team and after falling 6-2 in their home opener to the Marlins on Monday, I expect Halladay to lead the Phillies to a win here. The opening number on this game was minus-$1.55 and it's since gone down. Just when can one get Halladay at home, laying this kind of a price? Not often, as last year in Halladay's 17 home starts (including two in the postseason), the Phillies closed as less than a minus-$1.60 favorite with Hallday on the mound, just TWO times, against Texas and Atlanta. By the way, the Phillies won BOTH of those games and went 13-4 in all of his home starts last year (two losses came vs the World Champion Cards).

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 12:41 pm
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Spartan

Golden State +3.5

Well up until a couple of nights ago this Golden State club had been a scrappy, never say die covering machine. They played by far their worst game of the entire season at Denver. They were used and totally abused by the Nuggets who jumped all over them from the opening tip. Tonight, and maybe I'm being foolish, but I suspect Mark Jackson's team will be playing for some pride. I expect a huge effort from the Warriors here tonight guys. If they mail this in, I'll likely fade them the rest of the way. I think the public will be in love with the Blazers at home and I predict the Warriors will spoil the party. Take the points.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 2:51 pm
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Dave Price

NY Yankees -1.5 -106

Sabathia is 16-2 (18-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.74 in 22 career starts against the Orioles. Each of his team's last 15 wins against them have come by at least 2 runs. We'll take the Yankees on the run line.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 2:52 pm
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Jimmy Boyd

Milwaukee Bucks -4.5

It will be difficult for New York to refocus following last night's disappointing performance in Chicago. The Bucks will be lacking no motivation here after getting crushed by 20 by Oklahoma City Monday. They will be further fueled by a 9-point loss in New York Mar. 26. That loss was a rarity for the Bucks against the Knicks. The Bucks have won 12 of the last 15 meetings in the series with those 12 wins coming by an average of 12.3 points. The Knicks are just 2-12 ATS in the last 14 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee. New York hasn't been trustworthy on the road, where it is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 and 3-11 ATS in its last 14. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. We'll bet the Bucks in this bounce back spot against a team they have owned.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 2:52 pm
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Jeff Alexander

Texas Rangers -1.5 -102

Dating back to the beginning of the 2010 season, the Rangers have won 29 of 40 against the Mariners, including 16 of 21 in Arlington. The Rangers have defeated the M's by 2 runs or more in 5 of the last 6 meetings. Also, the Rangers are 5-0 in Colby Lewis' home starts versus Seattle and the last 4 wins have come by at least 2 runs. Take Texas on the run line.

 
Posted : April 11, 2012 2:53 pm
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