SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
San Antonio (50-31, 44-36-1 ATS) at Dallas (54-27, 36-44-1 ATS)
Two Texas rivals wrap up regular-season play when the Mavericks try to lock down the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference as they welcome the Spurs to the American Airlines Center in a possible first-round playoff preview.
Dallas, which has already wrapped up the Southwest Division title, can secure the No. 2 seed with a win over the Spurs tonight or a Utah loss at home to Phoenix. The Spurs are tied with Portland for the No. 6 spot in the Western Conference, but will fall to seventh – and face Dallas in the opening round – if they lose tonight.
San Antonio is 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight games and secured its 11th consecutive 50-win season with Monday’s 133-111 beatdown of Minnesota, easily covering as a whopping 14½-point road chalk. Going back to the end of February, the Spurs have won 18 of their last 25 games, going 18-6 ATS in the last 24, and during their current 6-2 surge, they’ve put up 107.9 ppg and allowed just 98 ppg. Although San Antonio has won five of its last seven road games (both SU and ATS), it is just barely above .500 on the highway this year at 21-19 (20-20 ATS).
Dallas has won four in a row and seven of nine, both SU and ATS, including a three-game sweep of its just-completed West Coast road trip. On Monday night, the Mavs drubbed the depleted Clippers 117-94 laying a hefty 11½ points. Dallas has averaged 110.4 ppg on stout 50.3 percent shooting in its last five starts, nearly 14 ppg better than its foes (96.8 ppg on 45.6 percent shooting). Also, the Mavs – one of the worst pointspread teams all season – have cashed in four straight games for the first time since mid-November.
Dallas is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this Southwest Division rivalry, winning and cashing in each of the past two contests. Most recently, the Mavs won 112-103 as a 4½-point road pup on Jan. 8. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the underdog is on a 19-9 ATS roll. Dallas has also cashed in the last four battles at the American Airlines Center.
The SU winner has covered the pointspread in San Antonio’s last 20 games in a row (including 11 straight on the road), and the winner has cashed in each of Dallas’ last 11 contests (including six straight at home). Additionally, the SU winner has gotten the money in the last 13 clashes in this rivalry.
The Spurs are on a bundle of ATS tears, including 18-6 overall, 10-4 on the highway, 7-1 after a day off, 6-1 against winning teams and 12-3 in the West. The Mavericks are on ATS upswings of 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS win and 5-1 after a day off, but they’ve also gone a putrid 6-28-1 ATS in the last 35 at home.
The over is 6-1 in Dallas’ last seven against winning teams and 4-1 in its last five divisional contests, though the over has hit in five of the Mavs’ last six at home. The under is also 5-1-1 in San Antonio’s last seven roadies, but the over is 6-2 in the Spurs’ last eight division outings. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last nine clashes, with the Jan. 8 meeting soaring over the 194½-point price following a two-game “under” run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
Chicago (40-41, 41-38-2 ATS) at Charlotte (44-37, 44-36-1 ATS)
The Bulls, looking to snag the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, travel to Time Warner Cable Arena to cap the regular season against the Bobcats, who already have a postseason spot locked up.
Chicago outlasted Boston 101-93 on Tuesday, cashing as a 4½-point home favorite. With the win, the Bulls moved a full game ahead of Toronto for the eighth and final playoff berth in the East. Therefore, they’ll head to the postseason for the second year in a row and fifth time in the last six years with a victory at Charlotte or a Toronto home loss to the Knicks. However, if the teams end up tied, the Raptors will get the playoff spot by virtue of a tiebreaker.
The Bulls are 9-4 in their last 13 games which follows an ugly 10-game losing skid. They’re also 11-5 ATS in their last 16, and they’ve also rebounded from a six-game road losing streak (2-4 ATS) to win four of five on the highway (SU and ATS).
Charlotte has won four of five and six of its last eight, though it has gone just 3-5 ATS in that stretch. On Monday night, the Bobcats dropped the hapless Nets 105-95 as a 4½-point road chalk to halt a three-game ATS skid. Charlotte, which has qualified for the postseason for the first time since the franchise was reborn the Bobcats, will be the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference and face defending conference champ Orlando in the first round.
The Bobcats have been sensational at home this year, winning 31 of 40 games (23-17 ATS) – including the last four in a row (2-2 ATS) – and they outscore visitors by exactly seven ppg (98.6-91.6).
The home team has won the last six meetings in this series (3-3 ATS). Chicago has cashed in the last two battles (1-1 SU) after a five-game ATS run by Charlotte (3-2 SU). On April 3, Chicago won 96-88 as a 4 ½-point home favorite. The underdog, though, is 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups, and the visitor has cashed in three of the last four.
The Bulls are on ATS upswings of 6-1 on the road, 12-4 on the highway against teams with a winning home record and 4-1 when going on no rest, but they are also 11-28 in their last 39 contests against the Southeast Division. The Bobcats are on ATS purges of 2-5 overall and 0-5 against the Central Division, though they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five Wednesday games.
Chicago is on “under” runs of 10-4 overall, 8-2 against Southeast Division foes and 9-3 in Eastern Conference games, but the over is 11-5 in the Bulls’ last 16 games when playing on the second of back-to-back nights. Charlotte is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 7-2 at home and 4-1 on Wednesday, though the total has stayed low in nine of the Bobcats’ last 12 when returning from a day off.
Finally, the over had hit in three in a row and four of five in this rivalry before the Bulls’ 96-88 home win earlier this month landed just short of the 186-point price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Phoenix (53-28, 47-33-1 ATS) at Utah (53-28, 49-28-3 ATS)
Two teams that are part of the four-way race logjam near the top of the Western Conference playoff standings collide when the scorching-hot Suns travel to EnergySolutions Arena to face the Jazz in the regular-season finale.
Phoenix hosted Denver on Tuesday and cruised to a 123-101 victory, easily covering as a five-point home favorite. With the win, the Suns moved to 13-2 in their last 15 games (10-4-1 ATS). With the victory, Phoenix assured itself of at least the No. 4 seed in the upcoming playoffs, meaning it will have home-court advantage in the first round. With a victory tonight, the Suns would move to the No. 3 slot and host either the Trailblazers or Spurs in the first round. A lost would give Phoenix the No. 4 seed and ensure a first-round matchup with the Nuggets.
Utah returns home after Tuesday’s 103-94 victory at Golden State, barely covering as an eight-point road favorite. The Jazz are 9-3 in their last 12 contests (7-5 ATS), and their playoff situation is quite cloudy. If Utah beats Phoenix tonight, it will at least claim the Northwest Division title and No.3 seed in the West. But if the Jazz win and the Mavericks lose at home to the Spurs, Utah will shoot up to the No. 2 slot. A loss tonight would relegate the Jazz to the No. 5 seed and cost them the home-court edge in the first round.
The Suns have followed up a season-best six-game road winning streak (4-2 ATS) in which they averaged 117.3 ppg by dropping their last two as a visitor (SU and ATS), scoring just 98 and 91 points in the two defeats. For the season, Phoenix is 21-19 on the road (22-18 ATS), averaging exactly as many points per game (108) as they’ve given up.
The Jazz enter this one riding a 10-game home winning streak and they’ve won 32 of 40 at Energy Solutions Arena this year, going a stellar 26-12-2 ATS. Utah has also outscored visitors by just over 10 ppg this season, averaging 108.2 ppg on solid 51.5 percent shooting, while allowing 98.1 ppg on 44.3 percent shooting.
Phoenix topped Utah 110-100 as a 5½-point home chalk on March 19, ending a three-game SU run (2-1 ATS) by the Jazz in this rivalry. Utah is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes, with the home team winning eight of those 10 contests.
The Suns sport nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 24-9-1 overall, 11-5 on the road, 14-5 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 4-0 on Wednesday and 18-7-1 in Western Conference action. The Jazz are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight starts against winning teams, but are otherwise on spread-covering rolls of 31-13-3 overall, 23-8-2 at home, 5-1 coming off a road trip of seven or more days, 5-1 when playing on back-to-back nights and 21-9-2 against Western Conference foes.
Additionally, the Jazz and Suns rank second and third, respectively, in the overall pointspread standings.
The over has hit in six of the last eight meetings in this rivalry, and Phoenix is on “over” upticks of 3-0-1 when playing on no rest, 7-2 against winning teams and 31-14 on Wednesday, while the total has also gone high in six of Utah’s last eight against winning teams. On the flip side, the Suns are on “under” runs of 4-1 against the Northwest Division and 5-3 in the Western Conference, and the Jazz carry “under” streaks of 4-0 on the second night of a back-to-back and 4-0-1 against Pacific Division foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Arizona (4-3) at L.A. Dodgers (3-4)
The Dodgers continue a three-game home series against the division-rival Diamondbacks when they send Chad Billingsley (1-0, 1.69 ERA) to the hill opposite Arizona’s Rodrigo Lopez (1-0, 1.50).
Los Angeles opened its 2010 home schedule with Tuesday’s 9-5 win over Arizona, getting home runs from Manny Ramirez, Casey Blake, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Going back to the second game of last year’s National League Championship Series, the Dodgers are still in a 3-7 funk, but nine of those contests were on the road prior to Monday’s home opener. At Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles has won six of its last seven, including going 5-0 at home against right-handed starters.
Arizona, which started the season with a 4-2 homestand, is now just 8-22 in its last 30 road games, including 5-17 on the road against right-handed starters. The DBacks have also dropped four in a row in the second game of a series.
The Dodgers won 11 of the 18 meetings with Arizona last year, and going back to 2008, they’re on a 17-7 roll in this rivalry, going 12-3 in the last 15 clashes at Dodger Stadium.
Lopez’s DBacks debut was a success, as he held the Pirates to a run on six hits over six innings, rolling to a 9-1 home victory. The veteran right-hander pitched in just seven big-league games last year, all with Philadelphia, going 3-1 with a 5.70 ERA, and he’s made just 21 major-league appearances since the start of 2007. He’s faced the Dodgers five times (four starts), going 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA, including 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA in two games (one start) in Los Angeles.
Billingsley struggled in the second half of last season, going 3-7 with a 5.20 ERA in 13 starts after the All-Star break, but he had a strong 2010 debut Thursday, limiting the Pirates to one run on five hits in 5 1/3 innings en route to an easy 10-2 road victory. Still, the Dodgers are just 2-6 in Billingsley’s last eight starts dating to last year and 2-5 in his last seven at home, but they’ve taken 13 of his last 18 outings versus the A.L. West.
Billingsley went 8-6 with a 4.01 ERA in 16 games (15 starts) at Dodger Stadium last year, and he was 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA in three starts against Arizona. For his career, the right-hander is 7-5 with a 3.35 ERA in 15 games (13 starts) against the Diamondbacks. L.A. won four of the last five matchups, with Billingsley pitching at least six innings in all five games (2.59 ERA).
Arizona has stayed low in six of seven on Wednesday and eight of 10 on the road against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, L.A. has topped the total in five straight overall and five of six versus right-handed starters, but otherwise the under is 10-2-2 in its last 14 on Wednesday, and with Billingsley on the mound, the under is on runs of 5-2-1 overall and 4-0-2 on Wednesday.
Finally, even though Monday’s game soared over the posted total of 7½ the under is 11-4-3 in the last 17 battles in this rivalry, including 4-1-1 in the last six at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (3-5) at Toronto (6-2)
One day after Blue Jays lefty Ricky Romero nearly twirled a no-hitter, Toronto sends Brandon Morrow (0-0, 9.00) to the hill in the third game of a four-game set against the White Sox, who will counter with lefty John Danks (0-0, 1.50) at the Rogers Centre.
Romero took a no-hitter into the eighth inning Tuesday, but he hit A.J. Pierzynski with a pitch to open the frame then gave up a two-run homer to former Blue Jay Alex Rios. Romero was lifted after the homer and finished giving up the two runs on one hit while walking two and striking out 12. Toronto, which lost Monday’s series opener 8-7 in 10 innings, is now on positive runs of 8-2 dating to the end of last season, 5-2 versus southpaw starters and 5-1 in the third game of a series.
The White Sox had a modest two-game winning streak halted last night, and they’re now just 3-15 in their last 18 games against the Blue Jays and 1-11 in their last 12 battles in Canada. Additionally, Chicago is in slumps of 9-19 on the road against right-handed starters, 7-20 in the third game of a series and 1-4 on Wednesday.
Danks gave up two runs (one earned) on eight hits in six innings Friday against the Twins, but it wasn’t good enough as Chicago fell 4-3 at home. The southpaw has pitched at least six innings and surrendered three earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 outings, but Chicago is just 5-6 during this stretch (1-4 in the last five). On the positive end, the Pale Hose are 4-1 in Danks’ last five versus A.L. East clubs and 5-2 in his last seven Wednesday efforts.
Danks was actually better on the road last year (8-4, 3.26 ERA) than at home (5-7, 4.48 ERA). However, like his team, Danks has struggled against Toronto, going 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA in three career starts, all in Canada. He lost 4-3 in 2007, 5-2 in 2008 and 8-3 in 2009.
Morrow got torched for five runs on four hits and five walks in five innings in his Blue Jays debut on Friday in Baltimore. However, his offense bailed him out, as Toronto rallied for a 7-6 victory. The right-hander spent his first three big-league seasons in Seattle, pitching mostly in relief (132 appearances but just 16 starts). He’s doesn’t have a decision in six career appearances (one start) against the White Sox, allowing three runs (two earned) in 10 innings (1.80 ERA).
Morrow also has pitched a total of five scoreless innings in five appearances at the Rogers Center, allowing just one hit, walking three and striking out seven.
It’s been all “unders” for the White Sox lately, including 35-16-2 overall, 35-16-2 on the road, 20-6-1 as a road underdog, 11-5 versus the A.L. East, 22-5-1 on Wednesday and 35-16-3 against right-handed starters. Also, with Danks hurling, the under is on runs of 9-3 overall and 4-1 on the road. Meanwhile, Toronto is on “over” stretches of 6-2-1 at home, 6-2-1 as a favorite, 5-1 against the A.L. East and 9-4-2 against left-handed starters. Also, the over is 6-2 in Morrow’s last eight starts going back to last season with the Mariners.
Lastly, the over is 8-4 in the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, though the under is still 8-3 in the last 11 clashes at the Rogers Centre, with Tuesday’s contest falling short of the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO
DUNKEL INDEX
New Orleans at Houston
The Hornets look to take advantage of a Houston team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a home favorite from 5 to 10 1/2 points. New Orleans is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+7 1/2)
Game 501-502: Indiana at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 121.269; Washington 119.949
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 212 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+2); Under
Game 503-504: New York at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.046; Toronto 120.607
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 8 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 7 1/2; 217
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-7 1/2); Under
Game 505-506: Philadelphia at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 114.880; Orlando 128.208
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 13 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 507-508: New Jersey at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 114.652; Miami 123.579
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 9; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 509-510: Cleveland at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.150; Atlanta 124.156
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 3; 198
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 511-512: Milwaukee at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 117.004; Boston 122.976
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 6; 193
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 513-514: Memphis at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 114.704; Oklahoma City 122.891
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8; 210
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 515-516: San Antonio at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.983; Dallas 127.182
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 199
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 517-518: New Orleans at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.055; Houston 117.948
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 5; 220
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 7 1/2; 216 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+7 1/2); Over
Game 519-520: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 112.656; Minnesota 114.954
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 521-522: Chicago at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 118.623; Charlotte 117.413
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+2); Over
Game 523-524: Phoenix at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 122.406; Utah 125.683
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 3 1/2; 225
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 525-526: Golden State at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 112.860; Portland 123.562
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 11 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 7 1/2; 214
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-7 1/2); Over
Game 527-528: LA Lakers at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 117.570; LA Clippers 105.703
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 12; 190
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
MLB
Atlanta at San Diego
The Braves look to build on their 9-1 record in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Atlanta is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145)
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.405; Cubs (Wells) 14.973
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-145); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-145); N/A
Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.471; San Francisco (Sanchez) 15.580
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 10
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-180); Over
Game 955-956: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 14.784; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.805
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-215); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-215); Over
Game 957-958: Cincinnati at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.473; Florida (Volstad) 15.827
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-125); Under
Game 959-960: Houston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 14.677; St. Louis (Penny) 14.003
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-220); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+180); Over
Game 961-962: NY Mets at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 14.990; Colorado (Cook) 14.838
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+170); Over
Game 963-964: Atlanta at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 15.334; San Diego (Richard) 14.400
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Over
Game 965-966: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Lopez) 15.030; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.994
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-190); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-190); Under
Game 967-968: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 14.816; Detroit (Porcello) 15.859
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-175); Under
Game 969-970: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Pineiro) 15.815; NY Yankees (Pineiro) 15.624
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-210); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+175); Over
Game 971-972: Boston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 16.649; Minnesota (Slowey) 15.626
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Under
Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.307; Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.078
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-140); Under
Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 16.331; Toronto (Morrow) 15.171
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); Over
Game 977-978: Texas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 14.634; Cleveland 15.041
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-105); Over
Game 979-980: Oakland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.979; Seattle (Vargas) 14.912
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-110); Over
NHL
Philadelphia at New Jersey
The Flyers look to build on their 6-1 record in the last 7 meetings between the two teams. Philadelphia is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+165)
Game 51-52: Ottawa at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.813; Pittsburgh 12.315
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-210); Over
Game 53-54: Philadelphia at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.761; New Jersey 12.379
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-185); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+165); Under
Game 55-56: Detroit at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.137; Phoenix 12.883
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-105); Under
Game 57-58: Colorado at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.699; San Jose 12.672
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-240); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-240); Over
Marc Lawrence
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
When the Thunder host the Grizzlies the finale regular season contest for both teams tonight they will do so knowing that Oklahoma CIty is 20-4 ATS this campaign when playing off a SU and ATS loss. They not only check in off back-to-back SU and ATS losses this evening, but also with same season loss revenge to boot. Look for OKC to improve to 25-10 ATS in this series tonight as they tune up for the playoffs with a convincing win tonight.
Sam Martin
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers
After clinching the overall #1 seed in the NBA and securing home court advantage throughout the playoffs, the Cavs have been resting their starters. And because of that, Cleveland has lost three straight. We think head coach Mike Brown puts a little more emphasis on the “W” tonight, as they want to have some type of momentum heading into the playoffs. Atlanta has clinched the #3 seed and may be resting players as well. Plus, word out of Cleveland is that Shaq might make his return. We’ll back the road team here.
Steve Merril
Chicago vs. Toronto
Play: Under 8.5
The White Sox managed just one hit in their 4-2 loss to the Blue Jays last night. Chicago's offense has been in a slumber for most of this season. The White Sox are currently hitting .190 against right-handed pitchers this season averaging just 3.6 runs per game. They'll face Toronto’s Brandon Morrow tonight who has made one start against the White Sox in his career where he gave up three runs and six hits in 5.7 innings of work. Morrow is still working on going more innings as a starter, but the Blue Jays bullpen is sporting a 2.33 ERA and pitched a scoreless 9th inning on Monday night. Chicago is only hitting .176 against Morrow as a team with Andruw Jones (0-4), Mark Teahen (0-4), AJ Pierzynski (0-3) and Carlos Quentin (0-1) all looking for their first hit against him. John Danks goes for the White Sox in this one. He is coming off an outing in which he gave up two runs and eight hits in six innings against Minnesota. Toronto sports an oddity of an offense as they are averaging five runs per game this season while hitting only .226. They have faced one lefty this season managing only three runs off C.J. Wilson of Texas. Alex Gonzalez (1-5), John Buck (1-5) and Lyle Overbay (0-3) all have struggled against Danks. Three of Toronto's last four games have gone Under the total, and we expect another low-scoring game tonight.
BEN BURNS
Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks
PICK: San Jose Sharks -240
The Sharks are the biggest favorite on the Wednesday hockey board. However, I feel that the price could easily be even higher. One of the things keeping the price in somewhat reasonable territory (It's still very expensive but teams like Washington and Chicago are currently laying even more on Thursday) is the fact that the Sharks have a less than stellar playoff history. Indeed, seemingly every year they enter the playoffs as one of the favorites, only to get upset in one of the opening rounds. That's all in the past though and I believe this will prove to be a very favorable matchup for them.
While that history is helping to keep the line down, (slightly) I expect it to have a motivating effect on the Sharks. They lost last year's playoff opener (2-0 loss to Anaheim) and ended up losing the series. They know that they absolutely cannot afford to get behind the eight ball again.
The Sharks won 27 of 41 home games this season. On the other hand, the Avalanche won 19 of 41 road games. Colorado got off to a very quick start this season but has been largely mediocre ever since. The Sharks had a couple of tough stretches, but were mostly dominant for the entire season.
The Avs can score goals. However, they don't score as many as the Sharks. San Jose finished with an average of 3.2 goals per game, including a whopping 3.5 per game at home. Colorado finished with 3.0 per game, including 2.9 on the road. The Sharks averaged 33.6 shots per game at home. The Avs averaged a mere 25.8 on the road.
The Sharks also have the edge in terms of goals against. San Jose limited opponents to 2.6 goals per game, including just 2.4 at home. Colorado allowed an average of 2.8, including 3.1 on the road.
Some may suggest that the Avs have the advantage in goal. I don't believe that's the case though. Yes, Anderson had a strong season. However, he wasn't great down the stretch and San Jose's Nabakov is coming off arguably his best season. The Sharks' netminder finished second in the league in wins (44), 6th in save percentage (.922) and 10th in goals-against-average (2.43).
The home team won all four regular season meetings. Including their two wins here, the Sharks are now 4-0 the last four times that they hosted the Avs. Looking back further and we find them at 6-1 the last seven times that they were a host in this series and 10-3 the last 13. I expect them to win both the opening game and the series. Consider laying the wood.
DAVID CHAN
Detroit Red Wings @ Phoenix Coyotes
PICK: Phoenix Coyotes -110
All the hype is on Detroit. The Wings are hot (17-5 in the last 22) and have the pedigree of a playoff champion.
Don’t discount the Coyotes, however. The Coyotes are 13-5 in their last 18 overall, and finished the season 29-12 in the desert. Detroit actually has a losing record away from the Motor City: 19-22.
These teams split a pair of games in each team’s home rink this year. Three of the four games were decided by a single goal.
Home ice should count for something here with the Coyotes’ nice record, and I think they should be about -145. The market says this one’s a toss up, so it’s time to bet.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Hornets/Rockets OVER 216.5
Bottom Line: I expect points to come easy in this game between a pair of non-playoff bound teams tonight as this game won't have a great deal of intensity. I have also spotted a strong system in support: Plays Over on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - after having won 4 of their last 5 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team, are 20-6 the last 3 seasons. Houston is averaging 109.6 points per game this month and should be able to go for more than that against a Hornets team that has been very poor defensively this month. We'll bet the Over.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -132
I'll fade the Brewers with Bush on the hill Wednesday and here's why. Bush is just 2-8 (3-12 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.30 lifetime when starting against the Cubs. He is also on a 5-21 skid against the money line in road day games. In addition, Chicago has had Milwaukee's number. The Brewers are just 4-9 in the last 13 meetings and only 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago. Plus, Wells has been sensational for Chicago and the Cubs are 11-4 in his last 15 starts as a favorite. Bet the Cubs.
Jim Feist
Atlanta vs. San Diego
Play: Over 7
A low total on this NL game as it's in Petco. However, a closer look shows one team with a good offense (Braves) and a pair of starting pitchers who have control problems. Clayton Richard of the Padres walks roughly 1 batter for every 2 innings pitched, a terrible ratio. He walked 71 in 153 innings last season and 34 in 64 IP two years ago. That's why his ERA was over 4 in both seasons. Atlanta starter Tommy Hanson is a young pitcher who can be a little wild, with 3 walks in 5 innings in the opener. Plenty of base runners means more runs than oddsmakers think. Play the Braves/Padres Over the total.
EZWINNERS
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
Houston we have a problem! Houston's starting pitcher Brett Myers allowed a career high twelve hits over six innings in his first start of the season as the Astros were beat by the Giants 10-4 last Wednesday at Minute Maid park. This time around Myers is facing a much more powerful St. Louis lineup. If Myers has another performance like his first that will spell doom for the Astros. Houston is the only team that has not won a game yet this season and they are getting almost nothing out of their offense so far this season. I see no reason why the Cards starting pitcher Brad Penny who was superb in his first start will not have a good outing against the struggling Houston lineup that is still without the injured Lance Berkman. Play St. Louis on the run line.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Detroit over Kansas City
Again, the Diamond will get back into the NBA once the Playoffs start later this week. Moving on, in baseball Wednesday the Royals are at Detroit, but they face a red hot commodity in hurler Rick Porcello. Recently, the Royals have played well in battles with Tigers winning 8 of the last 12. However, in contrast, Kansas City is just 1-5 with Davies on the hill against Detroit. Behind Rick Porcello the Tigers are 5-0 at home versus a losing road entity, 4-1 with four days of rest, while Kansas City fields a 14-29 mark in game #3 of a series. In closing, KC is a perfect 0-5 on Wednesday’s when Davies takes the hill.
Sac Lawson
STL / HOU Over 8
It's nearly impossible for me to have much respect for Brett Myers pre all-star break. Historically his worst months are April, May and June.. and he showed me absolutely nothing in his first start to make me think that wouldn't be the case again this year. Myers looked extremely hittable his first time out, and as an unfortunate fan of the 0-7 Astros, you can probably expect that to continue against a Cardinals bunch that has shelled 15 runs off the guy in just 20 innings of work over his last 4 starts against them. I have very little doubt that St. Louis will do their part in pushing this one over the posted total, the concern is obviously the Astros bats...
As I mentioned, very tough start for Houston so far, but they got a day off yesterday, and that can do nothing but help them, after all, it can't get any worse. Brad Penny toes the rubber for the Cardinals tonight, and even though his first outing was solid, it was also against a Reds team that was struggling to hit at the time. Quite frankly, I'm not a huge fan of Penny, and although he looked solid in his first start statistically, it wasn't necessarily an overpowering performance visually.
In Economics there's always that topic of market correction... Houston is not a great lineup, but they will score some runs as the season progresses, and coming off 7 straight terrible performances, I've got to believe this is a good spot for some of that correction to kick in. Off a much needed day off, and Penny possibly undervaluing the talent of an 0-7 roster, expect to see some Astros runs today. We've got wind blowing out to left in this one, FYI, for those that are weather buffs.. Can only help us.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW JERSEY/Philadelphia Over 5 –1.18
Man, it kills me to lay –1.18 because you have to win a high percentage of these to earn a profit but damn this one looks good. Sure, it’s the playoffs and defense will usually show up once the second season begins. However, these are not the same Devils or Flyers teams of the past. New Jersey is now comfortable playing a 5-4 game instead of the 2-1 squeakers we’ve been accustomed to in the past. The Devils defense is not even close to being as dominant as in year’s past and it seems like this total is based on that. Contrary to public opinion, Marty Brodeur is way past his prime and allows a lot of bad goals. Remember, he was yanked in the Olympics, he’s played a ton of hockey this season and he’s not as quick or sharp as he once was. Yes, the Devils allowed the least amount of goals but that’s a bit misleading in that they were fantastic in the first 40 games of the year but got progressively worse as the season wore on and Philly is a term of goal scorers and sharp shooters. The Flyers defense is slow and allows a ton of scoring chances and its goaltending is also unstable. Furthermore, these two met six times this season and none of the games went under this total. We also have OT, which means if each team can score twice, we cannot lose this wager and one must wonder how that is not going to happen? Play New Jersey/Philadelphia over 5 (Risking 2.36 units to win 2).
NHL Series Plays
Ottawa +2.56 over PITTSBURGH
Based on the value here, the Sens have to be considered a pretty decent pooch. First, the Penguins limped into the playoffs with just six wins in its final 16 games and that’s a concern. Second, this team and specifically, a slew of key players have played an absolute ton of hockey over the past couple of years and that takes its toll. The Pens went to the finals last season and a number of key players participated in the Olympics. The Pens are ripe to get beat and the grueling pace of the playoffs absolutely does not play to their advantage. And then there’s the goaltending of Marc-Andre Fleury. This guy is in complete disarray at the moment and his confidence is at an all time low. He does not make himself big, he’s not playing the angles well at all and by the time the Pens make a goaltender switch it could be too late. The Sens might be the least appreciated team in the playoffs but don’t sell them short. Its style of play can frustrate anyone. They play a strong defensive style and they can also play the trap and hold leads. They put together an 11-game winning streak during the regular season and they also put a streak together of nine wins in 10 games. When they’re running good, they’re a very confident bunch that is extremely tough to beat. These playoff series wagers are good because an updated series line is offered after each game and if the Sens can steal a game in Pittsburgh, we can assure ourselves a profit so keep your eye on this section for updated series plays. Play Ottawa +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Nashville +3.56 over CHICAGO
In playoff hockey you need good goaltending and it’s quite often the difference in the outcome of a given series. There is no disputing that the Preds goaltending is rock solid while the Blackhawks goaltending is not. Sure, the Blackhawks offense is potentially deadly but they come into this series with some problems on defense and again, some shaky goaltending. In fact, the Blackhawks recently went through a stretch of games in which they dropped seven of nine and allowed a ton of goals over that stretch that included surrendering eight to Columbus, five to the Coyotes and four to the Ducks. They also allowed a combined nine goals to the Blue Notes in two successive games. The Preds haven’t had much playoff success and that’s a bit of a concern but this team is built for playoff hockey in that they’re big, they’re strong defensively and they’re very physical. They also have two outstanding d-men in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter and it looks like Denis Grebeshkov will be back in time for the opener on Friday. Again, we have a situation here in which the price will dramatically drop should the Preds steal one in Chicago and that will allow us to “hedge” and ensure a profit. The Blackhawks are a great team and a threat to win it all but this is still an overlay. Play: Nashville +3.56 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +1.50 over BUFFALO
The Bruins have been in playoff mode for about three weeks now and will carry the momentum of that into this series. They ended the year by picking up nine out of a possible 10 points in its last five games with only point lost coming in OT against the Caps in Washington. Also note that these two played six times during the regular season with Boston winning four times. All games were close and that fact alone makes the Bruins a serious threat here. Now, some will suggest that Ryan Miller is the best in the business and he very well might be but overlooking Tuuka Rask is a mistake. Rask had a GAA of 1.66 during the last seven games of the year and had the best GAA of anyone in the league after the Olympics. The Bruins were second in the NHL in goals allowed and if some of its very capable offensive players get it going, look out. There were a bunch of Bruins players that underachieved offensively during the season but the playoffs are a different animal and you simply can’t count Boston out of this series. In fact, suggesting this series is at worst even up is not a stretch at all. This was the best possible draw for the B’s and it’s a definite first round upset possibility. Play: Boston +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit to win the Stanley Cup +9.13
I’m really hoping that the Coyotes can win game one so that the price on the Red Wings will come way down and then we can step in. It’s even tempting to lay the 2-1 on them but for now we’ll lay off. Detroit is ready for the playoffs and the best news is that almost every key player had significant time off during the regular season. Injuries to Zetterberg, Kronwall, Filppula, Cleary, Franzen, Holmstrom and about four others kept the Red Wings from dominating like years gone by. Well, they’re healthy now and when the chips were down and they were in jeopardy of missing the playoffs they stepped it up big time and left the competition gasping for air. They also have one of the best goaltenders in the game in Jimmy Howard. Man, is this guy good. He’s as quick as a cat and nobody in the league cuts down angles like he does. Halfway through the season the Red Wings were second last in the league in goals scored and then they got healthy. They went from 29th in goals scored to 14th in half a season and that’s a Secretariat-like move. The Red Wings have goal scorers and experience, they’re at the top of its game and they now have better goaltending than they’ve had in years. The Coyotes had a great year but its biggest threat is Lee Stempniak. Ilya Bryzgalov has never shined in the playoffs and hasn’t even played in them with the exception of a brief appearance in 2006. The Red Wings are the vastly superior team here and nobody in the league is playing better than them right now. They might win this series in four straight but the value is on them to win it all at odds of better than 9-1. Play: Detroit to win the Stanley Cup +9.13 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Craig Stammen and Kyle Kendrick met up last week, with the Nationals scoring a 6-5 upset win as a +140 underdog. These pitchers meet up again, this time in Philadephia, and while we’re not touching this huge line (Philly is a -220 favorite), we like the Under here. That was the Phillies only loss of the season, and they’ll have a chance for revenge here, but we also expect Kendrick to have a much better performance than his last time out. Washington has gone four straight games with no more than 7 base hits, and we can’t foresee them getting to Kendrick once again. Take the Under.
Play on: Under