Matt Fargo
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Washington Nationals
After Philadelphia took the series opener on Monday, there was an off day yesterday which definitely hurt the Phillies more than Washington. The Phillies are riding a four-game winning streak and that momentum came to a halt with the Tuesday off day which gives us some added value on the Nationals as the line remains the same as it would have been if there was no day off. Washington is a decent 3-4 this season and even though that includes a 1-3 record against the Phillies, this is a very good situation to get win number two and it just so happens to be the same matchup as that first win. Kyle Kendrick should not be a 2-1 favorite over any team no matter who the opponent or who the opposing starter is. This is even more the case when the first matchup between these two pitchers resulted in a win for Washington. Kendrick allowed five runs in just four innings and he brings in a 5.45 ERA over his last 33 starts over the last three years and with numbers like that, it will keep any opposing team in the game. Kendrick goes up against Craig Stammen who is coming off a poor effort of his own in that last meeting as he allowed four runs in five innings. The difference here is that Stammen showed some solid success last season as he was hurt by just a few bad starts. In 19 starts, he allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of those so there was no doubt the ability to pitch well and that was with bone chips in his elbow. As for the offenses, the Nationals should have Ryan Zimmerman back tonight while the Phillies will be without Jimmy Rollins whose calf injury could land him on the DL. 3* Washington Nationals
Sean Higgs
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
Minnesota is one of the most underrated teams in baseball the last 10 years. This team wins games and manages to get to the playoffs almost every year. They lose players to salary yet can still rebuild. Boston is struggling right now. There is already talk of sitting Ortiz. Boston will come around, its a long season, but right now they are not playing well and Minny is. So how so we pass on the Twins at home plus money?? We don't. Lets take the Twins here and make some cash.
MTi Sports
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Yankees are 15-0 as a home favorite after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and 8-0 at home after a win in which they had 12+ hits. Consider laying the price.
Tom Freese
New Orleans Hornets at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Houston Rockets
New Orleans is not in the Playoffs this year. Power forward David West score 18.8 points and 7.4 rebounds a game. Guard Marcus Thornton score 14.4 points a game. Forward Peja Stojakovic scores 12.6 points a game. The Hornets score 100 points a game. New Orleans is 2-8-1 their last 11 road games and they are 6-15-1 ATS their last 22 games overall. Houston is not in the playoffs they are playing for pride. Point guard Aaron Brooks scores 19.7 points a game. Power Forward Luis Scola scores 16.2 points and 8.6 rebounds a game Small Forward Trevor Ariza scores 14.7 points a game. The Rockets score 102.7 points a game. Houston is 4-0 ATS their last 4 home games vs. the Hornets and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games overall. PLAY ON HOUSTON -
Lee Kostroski
Chicago @ Toronto
PICK: Over 8.5
John Danks may have appeared to deliver a strong opening start against Minnesota last week but he allowed eight hits despite getting by with only one earned run allowed. The Twins left 13 runners on base in that game in addition to a double play and a pickoff play to keep the scoring numbers in check for Danks. Danks allowed three or more runs in eight road starts last season and after struggling in his opening start at home in conditions favorable to low scoring, he could be in trouble in a controlled road environment in Toronto.
With an extra-innings affair in the opening game of this series both teams (mainly the Sox) should be a bit thin in the bullpen and although both teams have decent relief pitching numbers there have been two blown saves on each side already this season. While the offensive numbers for both teams are mediocre at this point in the season the scoring has been consistent. Neither team has had a huge scoring game to inflate the overall numbers. Toronto has scored at least three runs in every game while topping five runs four times. Chicago has scored at least three runs in all but one game this season and the White Sox have also had a penchant for extra-innings with three games already needing more than nine innings.
Brandon Morrow was a highly regarded prospect a few years ago and he had instant success as a reliever but the conversion to a starting role has not gone smoothly. Morrow picked up just two wins in his ten starts last season and he lasted past the sixth inning just once. Walks were often a problem with 30 in his ten starts and he allowed at least three runs in seven of those outings. This was while playing for Seattle, mainly in a very favorable pitching venue. Against a lighter hitting Baltimore squad in his Toronto debut, Morrow allowed five runs in five innings with five walks being a major contributor.
Eight of the last twelve games in this series have played ‘over’ and White Sox pitchers have historically struggled in Toronto over the last few years. Danks has not pitched in Toronto since early in 2008 but it was not a start to remember for the left-hander. Toronto has been a strong hitting team against left-handed pitching in recent years and this Wednesday evening match-up should feature plenty of scoring opportunities.
Jimmy the Moose
Rays vs. Orioles
Play Under 9
Prior to last night's meeting between the clubs the Rays were batting .260 as a team. Tampa opened the season with 3 games vs. the Orioles and all 3 games played under the total. Tampa then faced the Yankees for 3 games and all 3 of those played the over before facing the Orioles again last night and again playing under the total. The under is 4-3 for Tampa with all 4 unders coming against the Orioles. The under is 8-1 in the Rays last 9 games as a favorite. The under is a profitable 6-1 in the Orioles 7 games this season. As a team the Orioles are hitting a lousy .239 and the offense hasn't started to click yet. Matusz takes the mound tonight and Baltimore played under the total in his first start of the season. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts dating back to last season. All 4 meetings between the clubs have played under the total and the under is a profitable 7-0 in the last 7 games between the clubs. Look for another low scoring game in Baltimore tonight. Play the Rays/Orioles Under
SPORTS WAGERS
PORTLAND –9½ over GOLDEN STATE
The Blazers need to win this game to secure the sixth seed in the playoffs and it’s important to do so. They’ll be without Brandon Roy tonight but that’ll just give the rest of the team more motivation to take care of business and finish the season with momentum. The Warriors ended its home portion of the schedule last night against Utah and will close out the year tonight. One really has to wonder what will keep them even remotely interested for this one. They already got Don Nelson the record for most wins by an NBA coach, they’ll play its third game in four nights and fourth game in five nights and one has to figure they just want to pack it in for the summer. Nobody wants to risk an injury in a meaningless last game of the season. The Blazers need this one and the Warriors should offer very little resistance. Play: Portland –9½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Tampa Bay –1½ +1.15 over BALTIMORE
The Orioles are off to a horrible start and with just over a week gone by in the season they’re already feeling a lot of pressure. The season may have started but the O’s bats have not. The O’s are hitting a collective .237 and they’ve made some previously very average pitchers look like Sandy Koufax and things aren’t getting better. The O’s have scored two runs or less in three of its last four games and has scored three or fewer in five of its eight games. Brad Bergeson was not good in his first start, and he struggled in one start against the Rays last year. Now in his second year but really his first year out of spring training, he’ll also be feeling the pressure of getting this team off the mattress. Then there’s the O’s pen, which has blown up a few times already and were used extensively yesterday. In fact, the O’s pen has faced 71 batters and 26 of those have reached base. Ouch. The O’s pen has an ERA of 7.25 and an off-the-charts slugging percentage against of .569. The Rays are 5-3 and David Price looked very good in his season debut against the potent Yanks. He went 7.2 innings in that game and allowed just seven hits and three runs. He’ll take a huge step down in class now to face a squad that’s seeing BB’s and has the worst RPG (2.9) in the AL. Price was also decent is two starts vs the O’s last year and reports are that he looks a lot more polished this season. Remember, he came in as a highly touted rookie with outstanding minor league credentials. Play: Tampa Bay –1½ +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Texas –1.08 over CLEVELAND
C.J. Wilson has paid his dues and now looks ready to stay in the rotation and make an impact. He’s been around for five years and has appeared in 249 major-league games but only seven of those were starts. However, he’s showed that he has the stamina to last deep into games and he’s also coming off a great spring in which he went 0-2 but allowed just 11 hits in 21 frames. Wilson has shown confidence in his ability to start now that he's healthy. He got his chance to prove that on Thursday in a superb outing against the Jays in which he threw seven shutout innings in Arlington and allowed just five hits, walked two and struck out nine. He has a full array of good pitches and draws an Indians squad that is struggling with the bats. The Indians are 2-5 and they’ve scored just 24 runs in those seven games but if you take away the eight they scored in one game against the Tigers, the numbers look a lot worse. It would be 16 runs scored in six games, thus the team batting average of .221 is even worse than it looks. Justin Masterson had a solid season debut but he faced an equally struggling South Side squad. He throws a ton of pitches and rarely makes it past five or six innings. This past spring his ERA was 5.14 after allowing 28 hits and 12 earned runs in 21 frames. Lastly, the Rangers play their best ball against this squad and in fact, have now won six in a row against them and nine of the last 10. Play: Texas –1.08 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Houston +2.00 over ST. LOUIS (1st 5 innings)
The Astros are going bad and resemble a minor-league team more than a major league one but we’re not asking them to win here. We’re asking them to score some runs off of Brad Penny and take a lead into the sixth inning. The bottom line is that Penny should not be better than a 2-1 favorite over anyone because he’s on his last legs in the majors and might not even make it through this year. Yeah, he had a good season debut but so what, a lot of pitchers do and Penny does not have a good track record in April over the last three years and he’s not younger, nor lighter. In fact, he’s probably mowing down a few hamburgers right now. The Astros, if they can get on, should be able to run against Penny too. He’s rather easy to run against (28 SB last year in 31 attempts) and one thing the Astros possess is speed. Brett Myers is hit and miss but he’s more miss than hit. However, this isn’t about him. This is about taking back a ridiculous price against Penny and that’s all there is to it. Play: Houston in the first five innings +2.00 (Risking 2 units).
Larry Ness
CHL +2 vs CHI
Let's give the Bulls credit for winning last night against the Celtics (I had them), which puts them in a position to clinch the eighth and final playoff spot in the East with a win tonight at Charlotte (Bulls can also clinch with a Raptors loss to the Knicks). The Bulls figure to be a popular side tonight and the early money has all been on Chicago. However, I'm not so convinced. I realize the Bobcats are locked into the No. 7 seed but according to Charlotte head coach Larry Brown, his Bobcats will not 'roll over.' "It will be a meaningful game for Chicago, so we're going to have to go out and try to win. It wouldn't be right just to go out and play," Brown was quoted as saying. The Bulls have taken two of three meetings with the Bobcats this season but the two wins came in Chicago. The Bulls lost 113-108 in Charlotte back on January 5 and let's note that the Bulls are 16-24 SU on the road while the Bobcats are an outstanding 31-9 SU at home. I'm calling for the Bulls to lose here and wind up watching the playoffs from home, with the Raptors qualifying for a four-game sweep at the hands of the Cavs in the first round. Take the home standing Bobcats .
Mr. Vegas
Bucks at Celtics
The Bucks won't know their first-round playoff opponent until Wednesday, although they know it will be either Atlanta or Boston. Milwaukee (45-36) can finish in the fifth position in the Eastern Conference, but only if it wins at Boston on Wednesday and Miami (46-35) loses at home to New Jersey. In that case, the Bucks and Heat would have the same record, but Milwaukee would take the fifth spot on a tiebreaker (because of winning the season series over Miami). Milwaukee plays a slow, defensive style, while Boston played last night and is likely to rest its top players. Don’t look for an offensive show. Play the Bucks/Celtics Under the total.
Nite Owl Sports
Detroit Red Wings @ Phoenix Coyotes
Pick: 2 Units Phoenix Coyotes -105
We like Phoenix to take their opening series game at home from Detroit, with whom they split TY’s series 2-2 (each prevailing and losing once at home and on the road). And TY was the first year in awhile that Phx has played Wings even. And while Yotes are making their first playoff appearance in over 3 years, they are clearly a legitimate playoff team TY, with a stellar 50-31 overall record, their first 50 victory season in a long time, and 29-12 at home, including 12-5 as a home dog or home “even” and 5-0 in that preferred role (in which they find themselves here) since return from Olympic break. Moreover, Yotes were 6-1 since mid-November as a home dog or home “even” in one goal games, which obviously includes games decided in OT or by a shootout. And the fact that both teams are playing with two days’ rest favors Phx, which is 14-5 TY when playing on “long rest” of 2> days, compared to Wings, who are just 10-15 when playing on long rest. But the one negative for Phx is their total lack of recent playoff experience.
On the other hand, while Detroit is just a not so hot 19-22 TY on the road, they are 8-4 since mid-November as a road dog or road “even” team in one goal games, which (as stated above) includes games decided in OT or by a shootout. And in their six games since Olympic break as a road dog or road ‘even” team, Wings were a very good 5-1, with all six of those games being decided by one goal, most of them in OT. And looking at Detroit’s road playoff record in last 3 years, excluding first round games, where for the most part Wings totally over-matched their opponents, it’s not all that impressive – not counting their championship year of 2007-08, when they were a much more “complete” team than TY, Wings were just 5-9 in all away playoff games (LY and in 2006-07 playoffs).
So based on the foregoing support, we’ll take Phx but for just two units, at -105 or -110 odds on the money line.
But we believe the best value on Phx may be taking them to take the series, as they are huge “dogs” of +165 or 170, and the price on Detroit is clearly inflated due to them still being somewhat of a "public team," with their recent history of success as a perennial contender for the Cup and appearances in the Cup Finals L2Y. But while Wings have played much better since return from Olympic break in early March than they did for most of the season, we are not convinced that they are the better of the two teams, as indicated by Yotes’ upset OT victory in Detroit in late January, where they scored 5 goals on Wings new (TY) #1 goalie Jimmy Howard. And we believe that the 2-2-1-1-1 home/road format (compared to the 2-3-2 format used in NHL playoffs in some previous years) makes Phx’s series home ice advantage even stronger. But don’t go crazy with any such series bet, as we are concerned with Detroit’s huge recent playoff experience edge over Phx.
Craig Trapp
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Oakland Athletics -108
So far this season maybe the biggest surprise is how good OAK has been going. They have dominated this SEA team so far going 4-1 this season. One of those wins was by tonight's starter Gonzalez. Also a plus for OAK is they get back hot hitting Ellis who missed yesterday's loss with a hamstring injury. SEA just is not hitting the ball and even though they finally won yesterday they only scored 3 runs. Too much value to pass up this one, OAK wins pretty easily as SEA continues to struggle at the plate!
SEAN MURPHY
Detroit Red Wings @ Phoenix Coyotes
PICK: Under 5
All four meetings between the Red Wings and Coyotes during the regular season totaled five goals or more. I don't think it's as easy as simply betting the over tonight and expecting at least a push however.
The Red Wings really tightened things up over their final two regular season games, allowing a grand total of just two goals in wins over the Blue Jackets and Blackhawks. Those two games combined produced only five goals in regulation time.
The Coyotes aren't going to stray away from the style of play that got them here. They were one of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season, holding their opponents to fewer than 2.4 goals per game. There's no question, they're going to have their hands full with the defending Western Conference champion Red Wings, and you can bet they'll bring a defense-first mentality into the series opener.
Despite dealing with flat '5's on most nights, under backers still went 20-16-5 in all Coyotes home games this season. Likewise, the under cashed at a 22-17-2 clip in Red Wings road games during the regular season.
Helping our cause is the fact that both of these teams rank in the top 10 in the league in penalty kill percentage. We're also talking about a pair of disciplined teams that aren't going to shoot themselves in the foot with dumb penalties. Obviously, the fewer power play opportunities, the better the chance of us cashing our ticket.
This series might open up a little as it progresses, but early on I'm not expecting a great deal of scoring. Look for both teams to do an excellent job in their own end, and don't be surprised if we see a 2-1 or 3-1 final. Take the under.
Hollywood Sports
Washington at Philadelphia
Prediction: Over
The Washington-Philadelphia game features a starting pitcher rematch from April 8th between Craig Stammen and Kyle Kendrick. That game ended in a 6-5 win for the Nationals. The hitters will likely benefit more from the experience of the quick rematch for this game against these two young hurlers. Philly should bang the ball tonight as they led the National League with a 5.1 runs per game average last season. Stammen allowed four runs on just five innings -- including two in that 5th inning which suggests the Phillies' hitters were beginning to figure Stammen out. Stammen was not very effective last season as he ended the year with a 5.11 ERA. Kendrick struggled last week against the Nationals as he allowed five runs in just four innings of work. And while Kendrick enjoyed a good 3.42 ERA in his 26 1/3 innings of work in the majors last season, his ERA does jump to a 4.41 clip when he pitched at home last season. No reason not to expect the hitters to take advantage from seeing these young pitchers just last week. Their adjustments should help ensure that this game also sees plenty of scoring. Take the Over.
Black Widow
1* on Oklahoma City Thunder -6
The Thunder are 49-32 this season and will be really looking forward to earning their 50th win of the regular season tonight, giving them some momentum heading into a first-round series against the L.A. Lakers. "Of course we want to win every game, but that's impossible," said Thunder forward Kevin Durant, the league's leading scorer with 30.1 points per game. "But we want to finish this season off strong. We still have one game to play and we will take this opportunity to play our hardest. No one expected us to be here. We would have liked to be (seeded) higher. But we have to keep fighting and get ready for the playoffs." The Thunder are 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. Memphis is 13-34 ATS (-24.4 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. OKC is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. Memphis has virtually packed it in here at the end of the season. Take the Thunder and lay the points.
Mike Rose
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -4½
The final night of the regular season features a whole slew of contests on Wednesday night. The Cleveland Cavaliers will travel to face the Atlanta Hawks in the final test prior to the post-season kicking off this weekend.
The Cavaliers already know that the road to the NBA championship runs through Quicken Loans Arena. They've been playing these final few regular season contests as scrimmages, and it's showing in recent results. Cleveland has lost three straight games coming into the regular season finale.
Atlanta, who will be the #3 seed in the upcoming playoffs are on a bit of a roll, having won three straight games coming into this clash with the NBA’s top team.
The Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their L/8 NBA betting battles against the Central Division.
This is a hard game to handicap, because it's not really clear how hard either team is going to play.
Atlanta has been playing solid basketball down the stretch, and Goodson probably won't let his team take its foot off of the gas pedal even though it may not have a heck of a lot to play for on the final day of the regular season.