Ben Burns
Detroit vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
With another painless win (Blues/Canucks "under") yesterday, Ben Burns is now 17-8 (+856 at 1 unit per game) with his 2013 free plays.
Those stats aren't included in his overall records.
Today, Ben tests that 68% YTD record with a play from the Seattle/Detroit contest.
The Mariners are a profitable 27-17 (+8) over the past couple of seasons, when playing at home with a line in the +100 to -125 range.
During that strech, the Tigers are only 22-31 (-14.4) when playing on the road with a line in the +100 to -125 range.
Hernandez hasn't been his usual dominant self over his past couple of starts. However, he's still got a solid 3.05 ERA and 1.161 WHIP on the season.
That's superior to Scherzer's 4.91 ERA and 1.182 WHIP.
Admittedly, Scherzer has been fairly tough against Seattle. In five starts vs. the M's, he's 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.250 WHIP.
Hernandez has him beat there too though. In 12 starts against Detroit, King Felix is 9-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.192 WHIP.
King Creole
Pistons +5.5
There's a handful of NON-Playoff teams in the Eastern Conference who are finishing the 2012/2013 season with a big-time BANG. The Detroit Pistons are one of those teams (so is the Toronto Raptors... our WINNER from last night). Maybe we can kick out the #7 and #8 seeds in the Eastern Conference (Boston and Milwaukee) and ADD the Pistons and Raptors!
DETROIT is even hotter than the sunny weather down here in South Florida. The PISTONS come in on a PERFECT 7-0-1 ATS run in their last 8 games. And we'll be playing ON 'EM in their best role (road underdogs). Detroit has gone a PERFECT 7-0 ATs in the last 4 weeks as road underdogs. Meanwhile, we'll be playing AGAINST The Brooklyn Nets in their WORST role (home favs). The Nets have gone 4-12 ATS this season as home favorites vs any opponent off a SU win (like DETROIT). And that includes 1-9 ATS in Conference play. And besides, the Nets are already locked-in to their Playoff position (#4 seed in the East) and CANNOT improve.
We have been following (and mentioning) this 'Day of the Week' UNDERDOG system all season long... and PROFITING on the process! We'll climb back aboard on this last day of the regular season.
23-5 ATS this season: All WEDNESDAY Conference underdogs off a SUATS win (PISTON) versus any opponent also off a SUATS win (Nets).
Both teams last played on Monday... so they both come in on ONE day of rest.
1-9-1 ATS since February: All NBA home favorites in a '1/1 REST situation (Nets) versus any HOT opponent off 2 or more SU and ATS wins in a row (PISTONS).
Steve Janus
Seattle Mariners -104
The Mariners are showing some excellent value at home as a small favorite with their ace Felix Hernandez on the mound. Hernandez is one of the elite pitchers in the game and has had his way against the Tigers in his career. He's 9-2 with a 2.65 ERA over 12 starts against Detroit. The Tigers will counter with Max Scherzer, who is a mere 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in his two starts this season. The last time Scherzer faced the Mariners, he was rocked for five runs on 10 hits in just five innings of work.
Detroit is the better team overall and the one likely headed to the playoffs, but Seattle is not getting enough respect at -104. The Tigers are just 8-19 against the money line in road games with a line of -100 to -125 over the last two season. Seattle on the other hand is 19-4 against the money line at home with a line of -100 to -125. Simply too much value to pass up.
Jack Jones
Toronto Raptors -5.5
The Toronto Raptors have saved their best basketball for last. They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall as they have clearly made a point of finishing the season strong. This is a team that will be fighting for a playoff spot next year as long as they bring Rudy Gay back.
I look for the Raptors to cap off a great run to end the season with a blowout victory over the Boston Celtics tonight. With Boston locked into the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, it has nothing to play for in this one.
The Celtics' biggest concern is resting their players so that they are fresh heading into their first-round showdown with No. 2 New York. While some of their starters may get minutes tonight, the least of their worries is winning this game.
Boston is 5-16 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are 5-14 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Toronto wants revenge from three earlier losses to Boston this season. Bet the Raptors Wednesday.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays -115
The Rays get the call as our free play as they are showing value at this price with Matt Moore on the mound. The Rays are 4-0 in his last 4 starts, and he has given up no runs and only 3 hits in 11 1/3 innings this season. Moore has won 2 of his last 3 starts against the Orioles and has limited them to 2 earned runs or fewer in all 4 career meetings. Baltimore's Chris Tillman has struggled out of the gate, as evidence by his 7.00 ERA and 2.111 WHIP. It's significant that oddsmakers have listed Tampa Bay as the favorite because it is 13-5 in its last 18 games as a favorite and 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Take the Rays.
Don Best Consensus
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: San Francisco Giants
The Giants are 6-1 in Vogelsong's last 7 starts vs. National League Central. San Francisco is 4-1 in Vogelsong's last 5 road starts. The Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. Milwaukee is 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Ross Benjamin
New Orleans @ Dallas
Play: Dallas -8
The Hornets have been reeling down the final stretch of the regular season having been decimated by injuries to key players. The Hornets enter tonight having lost their last 4, 6 of the last 7, and 8 of their last 10 games. In their last 5 games the Hornets have allowed a lofty 104.0 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot 49.3% from the field. Dallas is a very profitable 18-5 ATS the last 2 seasons as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12.5 with a large +13.6 point per game differential. Dallas hasn't quit down the stretch going 4-2 SU&ATS in their last 6 games.
Any home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 that has allowed 40 points or less in the first half in each of their last 2 games, and they average 99 points or more per game on the season is 36-13 ATS (73.5%) since the start of the 1996 season. Play on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points as my free selection of the night.
Tony Karpinski
Arizona vs. New York Y
Play: Under
The Yankees who should have more confidence now after winning 6 of their last 7 games and also the Yanks have beaten the D-Backs 6 of their last 7 meetings. . C.C. has a great ERA against Arizona and almost all of the Yankees batters have never faced Miley so I am expecting very few hits tonight and backing the UNDER 8 runs.
Jeff Alexander
Detroit Pistons +5.5
Take the points with a Detroit squad that has won its last 4 straight up and has covered the number in its last 8. The Pistons are clearly looking to finish strong. They have the edge here against a Brooklyn team with nothing to play for. The Nets have the 4th seed locked up and can rest players as a result. Detroit was completely embarrassed by Brooklyn last month so this game is personal as well.
Jesse Schule
Milwaukee Brewers -116
The Brewers won Game 1 of their series with the defending champs in Milwaukee last night, out-slugging the Giants in a 10-8 ballgame.
We might not see as many runs in tonight's game, especially for the Giants going up against Kyle Lohse. The right-hander has given the Brewers two quality starts so far this season, but unfortunately they haven't provided him with any run support, losing those games 2-0 to St. Louis and 3-1 to Arizona.
Lohse allowed one run on five hits over five innings in his season debut in Milwaukee, with five Ks. He was 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 2012, and he's looked as if he picked up right where he left off so far this year.
The Giants will send Ryan Vogelsong to the mound tonight, and he's struggling early on this season. He's been roughed up for five runs in each of his two starts this year, and he's given up 17 hits over 11 innings.
Aramis Ramirez has seen more of Vogelsong than any other player in the Brewers lineup, and he's had some success. Ramirez is hitting .389 with a pair of home runs in 18 career at bats. Rickie Weeks is 2-for-3 with a double in his career versus Vogelsong.
It could be another tough outing for the struggling Giants hurler.
Take the Brew Crew.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
NEW YORK -148 over Arizona: The Yanks are hot right now as they have won 6 of their last 7 games. Tonight they get their ace on the mound in CC Sabathia and he has pitched well out the gate, with a 2-1 mark and a 2.25 ERA. CC Struggled some in his opening start vs Boston. but bounced back very well in his last 2 starts, allowing just 1 ER in the two games. CC has thrived in interleague games, going 22-8 with a 3.41 ERA in his 45 career inteleague starts, including going 12-2 with a 2.56 ERA in his last 18 interleague starts. Very dominating. Wade Miley is off to a nice 2-0 starts and he is 2-1 with an 0.83 ERA in 3 career interleague starts, but the Yanks offense is playing too well right now to think that he will be able to slow them down. Arizona is 1-9 their last 9 meetings in New York and I don't see them improving that record in this one. Look for CC to dominate interleague play once again.
Baltimore/ Tampa Bay Under 8: The Rays can't score right now, yet they are the favorites and a big reason for that is Matt Moore. Matt comes in with a 2-0 mark and he has yet to allow an ER in 11.1 innings of work. Matt has faced the O's 4 times in his career and has allowed a total of 4 ER's in those 4 starts. Chris Tillman has struggled out the gate with a 7.00 ERA, but he is off a fine year, in which he had a 2.93 ERA and he has allowed 3 ER's or less in 6 of his 7 career starts vs the Rays. The Rays hit well under .200 on the road and their road ERA is a solid 3.38, which translates into an 0-5-1 Under mark for them on the road. I look for the O's offense to struggle vs Moore, while the Ray's offense will struggle as usual. Should be a low scoring game tonight.
St Louis/ Pittsburgh Under 7.5: 62 % of the public on the Over yet this game has gone from 8 Under to 7.5 Under. I agree with the move cause I feel this game will be all about pitching. Shelby Miller has mad just 3 career starts for the Cardinal and he has posted an 0.98 ERA in those starts, including a 1.46 ERA this year. He has never faced Pittsburgh and that should give him an edge here. What also should give him an edge is the fact that this is very much a pitcher's park and Pittsburgh is one of the worst hitting teams in the league, hitting just .214 so far. The Cardinals have hit the stitches off the ball so far , but they don't generally put up a ton of runs in this park, so don't expect them to come close to the 10 spot they put up last night, especially since Burnett has a career 3.13 ERA in this park. AJ's games have averaged 5.3 rpg and the UNDER is 9-1-1 in his last 11 starts as a home dog. I expect another low scoring game tonight.
Detroit/ Seattle Over 6.5: I don't really see this as a 2-1 type of game, but more like a game that will be tied 3-3 late, which will give us at least 7 runs in this one. Detroit comes in asa the top hitting offense in the league and they should be able to score a few on King Felix, who has not looked all that dominating in the early going. He has lost something off his fastball and he has allowed 16 hits and 4 walks in his last 2 starts. I expect this hot Detroit to have a good showing vs him tonight. The Seattle offense is not that great, but they still score 3.67 rpg on the year and 3.5 rpg at home, so I do expect them to put up at least 3 off of Max Scherzer, who does have a 4.09 ERA on the year and a leaky bullpen (5.34 ERA) behind him. Look for both teams to notch at least 3 runs each in this one giving us a nice late night win on the Over.
Rob Veno
Detroit at Seattle
Play: Seattle
There’s obviously unlimited backlash against this anemic Seattle Mariners offense as money pours in against Felix Hernandez today. Analysis of the statistical facts early on suggests that this Seattle offense can’t generate enough offense to support Hernandez in this matchup. They could only muster three runs in each of King Felix’s last two starts versus lesser opposing starters Dylan Axelrod (Chicago WS) and Justin Grimm (Texas). Those games resulted in Seattle losses and in the Texas game, Hernandez simply didn’t pitch well enough to win allowing 10 hits (15 total bases) and two walks in 6.2 innings.
After a pair of subpar outings, expect Hernandez to bounce back with a prime effort tonight. With nothing wrong physically or mechanically and Hernandez saying his stuff was pretty good last game and he just made a couple mistakes, it seems he’s ready to go in this spot. He’ll have to ignore the impulse to try and be ultra-fine against Detroit which has the firepower to capitalize. In his last five starts vs. the Tigers, he’s recorded five quality starts and allowed just 39 baserunners over 34.2 innings.
His counterpart tonight Max Scherzer has been almost equally as good against Seattle with four quality starts in his last five tries. He owns an 18/3 K:BB mark in his two starts this season but his nemesis of running up high pitch counts has gotten him to the showers after only six and five inning stints. With the Tigers bullpen is a current state of flux, Seattle could benefit from an early exit tonight. The reinsertion of leadoff and cleanup hitters Franklin Gutierrez and Mike Morse for the second consecutive game should inject some run scoring ability for Seattle here. Hernandez is obviously capable of outdueling and outlasting Scherzer while the back end combo of fireballer Carter Capps and closer Tom Wilhelmsen can close the door if necessary. Not real sure when or if ever again Felix Hernandez will be a home underdog so value is certainly on the plate here as well.