Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday April, 18

Marc Lawrence

New York Knicks at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: New York Knicks

The Knicks battle the Nets in a cross town rivalry Wednesday evening in an Atlantic Division duel with New York looking to avenge an 8-point loss suffered as double-digit home chalk in this series two months ago. The value in this contest comes in the fact that the Knicks played last night and are being priced as a road team tonight. The game last night was at home so the travel factor is all but negated. So too is the no-rest factor given New York's 9-3 ATS mark in Eastern Conference clashes when playing without rest this season. With the Nets 3-15 SU and 2-15-1 ATS this season at home when not playing off a loss of more than 8 points, look for the Knicks to knock off the Nets in convincing fashion tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on New York.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -3

Denver is off a home and home sweep over Houston and now takes on A Clippers team off Perhaps their Biggest win this season a solid 92-77 Home dog win over OKC. This satisfying win could leave the Clippers flat as a pancake for this one up in the altitude of Denver. For the system we want to play against road dogs with 1 day of rest if they are getting 4 or less with a total of 200 or higher if they shot 45% or less at home in their last game and won as a home dog. These road teams have failed to cover the last 8 tries. The system sample may be small but I'm thinking Denver will get the win and cover. They have won 4 of the last 5 here vs the Clippers and LA is just 4-10 to the spread off a win of 10 or more points. Take Denver tonight.

Matt Fargo

Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox

Boston got embarrassed at home on Tuesday against the Rangers so this is definitely the best time to back the Red Sox. They have gotten off to a very poor start there is no doubt about it as they are now 4-7 but prior to the last two games, they seemed to have gotten things straight with three wins over Tampa Bay but the offensive regression came back. This team can score runs as witnessed by three games this season already with 12 or more runs scored but tonight it will be about their pitching.

The Rangers lit up Jon Lester for seven runs in just two innings of work and continued the explosion by nailing the bullpen as well. This is definitely one of the most potent offenses in baseball even though it took 11 games for them to score more than six runs two times. You can argue momentum from Tuesday can take over but after scoring 11 runs against Seattle on April 9th, Texas put up just one the next night and that was against a mediocre pitcher. That is not the case Wednesday.

Josh Beckett got his season off to a very rough start in Detroit as he allowed seven runs in just 4.2 innings as he allowed five home runs. That is very uncharacteristic as he allowed only 21 home runs all of last season over 30 starts. He bounced back with a gem against Tampa Bay at home, allowing only one run in eight innings. He was great at home last season with a 2.71 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and while his track record against Texas is horrible, last season was he tossed a quality outing in his only start against the Rangers.

Derek Holland meanwhile is a perfect two-for-two in quality outings this season as he pitched excellent against both Seattle and Chicago. He had a breakout season a year ago as he went 16-5 with a 3.95 ERA in 32 starts during the regular season with most of that success coming in the second half. He comes in with a ton of confidence and he pitched very well here last year in his lone start against Boston but this year the Red Sox are hitting .350 against left-handed pitching at home so it will be tough on Holland.

Ben Burns

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

After successfully backing them in their finale against the Orioles, I came back and won with the Jays again in yesterday's opener vs. the Rays. With Morrow on the mound, I feel that they've got a solid shot at making it three in a row here.

Morrow didn't factor in the decision in his last start. He wasn't dominant but he still went seven complete innings, allowing four runs. In his previous start, he also went seven complete innings. In that one, he allowed only one hit and two unearned runs. Through two starts, he's got a superb 2.57 ERA and 0.786 SHIP.

On the other hand, Price has a poor 4.82 ERA and 1.715 WHIP through his first two starts. Last time out, he allowed three runs in just three innings, walking three batters along the way. (He also had four walks in his first start.)

Both starters have strong numbers against today's opponent. They also opposed each other twice down the stretch last season. Price go the better of Morrow in a late August meeting. However, Morrow came back and outpitched him a few weeks later, leading the Jays to a 5-1 victory on 9/23.

While its still obviously very early, the Rays have really struggled away from home so far. They haven't hit the ball well away from home and the bullpen has also been brutal on the road. With a price essentially in the pick'em range, consider Toronto

Sean Murphy

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: San Diego Padres

Based on this line, it would seem that there's an awful lot separating these two teams, but I'm not convinced that's really the case.

Sure, the Padres have only three wins on the season, but the Rockies haven't been that much better, with five victories. As far as I'm concerned, San Diego has an edge in terms of starting pitching on Wednesday, and with the Rockies offense sputtering a little, this is a prime spot for the Pads' to pick up a 'w'.

Clayton Richard takes the ball for the visitors. He's been in tough going up against the red hot Dodgers in each of his first two starts this season, but he hasn't fared poorly at all, allowing only eight hits and four earned runs in 13 innings of work. It's nice that the Padres offense has come to life for him as well, plating a grand total of 16 runs in those two contests.

Richard has won in Colorado before, and he's held the Rockies to exactly one earned run in two of his last three starts against them. Keep in mind, Colorado is hitting just .214 against left-handed pitching this season.

Juan Nicasio is really nothing more than a bottom-tier starter for the Rocks'. He's pitched accordingly so far this season, posting a 6.52 ERA and 1.66 WHIP while recording a 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in two starts, spanning 9 2/3 innings pitched.

Keep in mind, Colorado lost his final three outings last year, outscored by a combined margin of 21-11.

The case can be made that the Padres are in better form at the dish right now, having scored 14 runs over their last three games, compared to the Rockies eight over the same span. Again, I'm not sure this price is in touch with reality, as the Rockies are by no means an upper-echelon team, nor do they have an advantage on the mound tonight.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Clippers @ Nuggets
PICK: Under 201.5

LA is 38-23 (15-14 on the road). Denver is 34-27 (19-12 at home). The last time these teams played against each other, the Clippers won 103-95 in LA on February 22nd, 2012. The O/U the last five in the series is 1-4. I expect these conference foes to once again play to a tight, defensive affair this evening.

The Clippers are coming off a big 92-77 win over Oklahoma City on Monday. Nick Young scored 19-points. Blake Griffin had 17. Randy Foye added 13. With the win LA has now punched its first ticket to the postseason since 2005, and was the team's fourth straight victory overall. The Clippers are in Phoenix tomorrow night.

The Nuggets are coming off a 105-102 win at Houston on Monday. Arron Affalo had 26-points. Ty Lawson added 25. Al Harrington chipped in 15-points. Andre Miller had 13-assists.

The Clippers have seen the total go "under" the number in 8 of 14 this year vs. poor defensive teams that allow 99-plus points per contest, while the Nuggets have seen it go below the posted number in 16 of 25 this year after scoring 105-points or more, and in 19 of 31 total home games this season.

This is a big game for both teams.

The Clippers are trying to run down the Lakers in the Pacific Division, while the Nuggets are still seeking to lock up their own spot in the postseason.

"Our awareness of where we are in the season is really starting to heighten now," Afflalo said. "Before, we used to go out there and compete and play the games. Now, we have an ulterior motive almost, in terms of understanding playoff positioning. That's good for a young team."

Denver has been scoring points of late, leading the league with a 103.6 points per game average. However, it now faces an LA squad that held high-flying Oklahoma City to a season-low 25-points in the second half of its win on Monday.

"We have enough offensive power to play with anybody, but our defense is what triggers us," Clippers' guard Chris Paul said.

There is simply overwhelming factors that all point to the "under" as being the way to go in this one. What do you think?

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

Mat Latos has been a bit shaky in his first two starts as a member of the Reds. Jaime Garcia was very tough at home last season and I see him getting the job done tonight as the Cardinals make it two straight against the Reds.

Jim Feist

Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers

Philly laid an egg in Orlando Monday, so perhaps they need to pick on somebody their size. They get a better chance here as the 76ers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games vs. a team with a losing record. Philly needs to win with playoff seedings at stake. The Cavaliers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Play the 76ers.

JR O'Donnell

Cleveland Indians -117

The Indians send veteran Derek Lowe to the mound, and after coming over to the AL with most of his career in the NL, is showing to be a tough out for the opposition. He is 2-0, 1.98 ERA & a 1.24 WHIP. In his last outing he threw almost 67% of his pitches for strikes. A low pitch ground ball hurler, he depends on hi defense to make plays behind him. He maintains a 3.5:1 "K" to "BB" ratio. His mound foe is Jason Vargas (LHP), who is 1-1, 3.44 ERA & .98 WHIP. In "3" starts he has gone 18.1 IP, "14" hits, "7" runs, with "2" homers and has a strong 3:1 "K" to "BB" ratio. Still we feel those stats are somewhat inflated because he has faced the soft hitting Oakland A's twice. Indians 4-0 on the road AFTER last night's 9-8 win, and we feel Lowe will keep them in the game and depend on them to get him 4-5 runs and win.

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +120 over MIAMI (1st 5 innings)

Mark Buehrle was a mainstay in the White Sox rotation for years. He was a reliable starter that gave the Chisox 200+ innings yearly with an ERA in the mid to high 3’s. What he’s also done every year, is outpitch his skills and his margin of error appears to be narrowing. Buehrle's strikeout rate is in decline. His strong GB% has been one of his skill staples but that has fallen from its 2008 peak each of the past three years. He also may not be that comfortable in Miami yet. He’s 0-2 with a misleading 3.65 ERA after allowing 15 hits in 12.1 innings for a BAA of .313. The Marlins are just 5-6 and will face a very tough right-hander in Matt Garza. Garza is one of the most underappreciated and undervalued pitchers in the game. He struck out 198 batters in 197 frames in his first go around in the NL. He’s right on pace again this year with 14 K’s in 15 innings, while walking just three. Garza comes in with 1-0 record and a 1.23 ERA after two quality starts to open the year. Garza completely swapped his fly-ball tendencies for ground-ball one’s which always equates to more outs. Matt Garza has elevated his game to being near elite levels and with that, we’ll play him over Buehrle in the first five frames and leave the pens out of it. Play: Chicago +120 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Mets +121 over ATLANTA

12:10 PM EST. With an early day game after a night game, expect Brian McCann to sit this one out and perhaps Chipper Jones as well. Jair Jurrjens has started two games for the Braves and sits at 0-1 with one no-decision. He should be 0-2. Jurrjens has allowed 14 hits, four jacks, five walks and a BAA of .341 in just 9.1 innings. His velocity is down in all of his pitches and he’ll take the mound here with his confidence at a low level. Jurrjens had knee issues again last season for the second straight year that put him on the DL. As a result, his skills tanked in the second half. He’s always outperformed his ERA and everything about his skills point to an average pitcher. Even if he’s healthy, his average stuff is finally catching up to him. The guy is fragile. Meanwhile, the Mets are one of this year’s biggest surprises that makes them very playable at the moment, as team morale is high. Dillon Gee has an outstanding profile that starts with a 57% groundball rate. He has great control and his strikeout rate is increasing. In 12 innings, Gee has walked two and struck out 11. He was a rookie sensation a year ago and appears to have even more confidence this time around. Gee and the Mets are a much better option taking back a tag than the Braves are spotting one. Play: N.Y. Mets +120 (Risking 2 units).

Texas +108 over BOSTON

On April 1, there was a story about Bobby Valentine in the Red Sox season preview section. When asked about playing for Valentine, here is what Al Leiter had to say: "Is he going to get on your nerves? Absolutely he will”. After losing 18-3 to Texas last night, the Red Sox are looking to prove they can lay down for both Terry Francona and Bobby Valentine. Valentine is not endearing himself to the players. He’s already had a run-in with Kevin Youkilis (Youk went 0-4 last night) and the manager was booed after he walked off the mound AFTER Daniel Bard instead of with him. The Red Sox are in last place in the AL East with a 4-7 record and things don’t figure to get any better here. Josh Beckett was tagged for five dingers in his season debut in Detroit before throwing a gem in his last game against the Rays. Beckett once again has to face a potent lineup. Offensively, the Rangers are first or second in the majors in all key offensive categories including batting average, runs scored and home runs. Derek Holland just keeps putting up better numbers year after year. He’s already struck out 13 batters in 13 frames while walking just three. His skill gains in the second half mark him as a potential ace and pitching for the Rangers, he’s often pitching with a nice lead. The Rangers are in a much better state of mind, they have an edge on the hill and at the plate and any take-back here has to be considered generous. Play: Texas +108 (Risking 2 units).

Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

ATLANTA -127 over NY Mets: Jair Jurrjens has had a rough start to the year so far, with an 0-1 mark and a 7.71 ERA, but I feel that will turn around today. He is 8-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 14 career starts vs the Mets, including a 4-1 mark with a 2.32 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them here. R.A. Dickey is 2-4 with a 3.31 ERA in 8 career starts vs the Braves and 0-1 wit h a 3.56 ERA in 3 starts here. he Beat the Braves in NY Last week, but today they will get some revenge.

More Later

MLB Predictions

New York Mets +120

The New York Mets look to win their second series against the Braves in today's rubber match game. To open the season the Mets swept Atlanta in New York, and now the teams have split their first two games of this series in Atlanta. New York won the first 6-1 as +160 underdogs, and the Braves evened things up last night by a score of 9-3. Tonight's pitching match up will be R.A Dickey vs Jair Jurrjens - a match up we saw in a 4-2 New York win on April 7th. Dickey is 2-0 on the season with a 2.08 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and .292 opponents batting average over 13 innings of work. Jair Jurrjens is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, and .341 opponents batting average over 9.1 innings of work. An interesting peice of information I read: Since May 15th of last season Dickey ranks 6th in ERA across the MLB. Take note that the Braves will rest both Brian McCann and Chipper Jones today before heading to Arizona for a game tomorrow. Note that the Mets are 6-2 in Dickey's last 8 starts, and 6-1 in his last 7 games as a road underdog. The Braves are just 1-9 in their last 10 vs NL East divisional opponents, and 1-4 in Jurrjen's last 5 starts vs divisional opponents. I like the Mets to win today and we have a nice price at +120 to back them.

JEFF BENTON

Your Wednesday freebie is the Oklahoma City Thunder as the road favorite over the Phoenix Suns.

Must respect Phoenix and their 13-3 home spread mark over their last 16 games played at the US Airways Arena, but you also must respect the fact the Thunder are vying for the overall #1 seed in the Western Conference, and now trail the Spurs for that honor by 1/2-game.

Oklahoma City has won five straight, and seven of the last nine series meetings, and they have been a winner the last three times they have played on the Suns hardwood both straight up and against the spread.

The Suns are trying to secure a playoff spot, and currently find themselves tied for the #8 seed with the Houston Rockets, and a half-game ahead of the Utah Jazz. Phoenix does have home games against the Clippers and the Nuggets on the immediate horizon, and if you ask me, the match ups against those two foes look a little more favorable than the match up tonight.

Thunder make it six in a row in the series at the expense of the Suns.

Oklahoma City as the road favorite to get back on track after their Monday night loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers.

2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

SCOTT DELANEY

So last night I ventured outside the realm of what I normally do, and gave you a free winner out of the NHL Playoffs, scoring a winner on the Nashville Predators as the road underdog against the Detroit Red Wings. Though I can't wait to watch tonight's Philadelphia-Pittsburgh showdown, I'm not touching that one and will give you a freebie on the Oklahoma City Thunder laying points in Phoenix, against the Suns.

While I know much of the story out of the desert is how much the Suns need to keep winning to stay alive in NBA Playoff hunt, the Thunder suddenly are in need of wins just as much. They've enjoyed the view from atop the Western Conference standings for much of the season, but are now looking up at the San Antonio Spurs, who are currently in line to nab the No. 1 seed for a second-straight season.

And coming into this game after their lowest-scoring effort of the season, I have to believe the Thunder will be fired up for this game, and will avenge Monday's 92-77 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, who overcame a nine-point, halftime deficit. Admittedly, yes, OKC hasn't looked much like a playoff team of late, losing five of nine, let alone resembling a No. 1 seed.

But this is still the same dangerous basketball team that dominated most of its opponents for much of the season. And even though the Thunder have lost their last five games against teams with winning records, they've won five straight against the Suns, a skid that has seen the Thunder put up an average of 114.2 points per game.

The Thunder have covered six of their last eight against Pacific Division teams, while the Suns are in on a 3-8 spread slide when hosting teams that win at home.

I'll lay the road chalk with OKC tonight in the NBA.

3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY